Duffey Is Ahead Of The Curve

Jose Berrios was the most buzzworthy arm in Minnesota's system this year, and with good reason. He was named Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year by Twins Daily and will surely receive the official nod for a second time in a row when it's announced by the Twins soon.

Berrios might be the most talented pitcher in the organization, and in spring training many felt that he had better stuff than anyone slated for the MLB rotation. So pressure built for a call-up over the course of the season while the young righty dominated Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. With the Twins emerging as surprise contenders, many fans hoped to see the electric hurler promoted to help during the stretch push in some capacity.

That didn't happen. Berrios finished up his year at Rochester and the front office elected to shut him down. However, another pitching prospect has entered the fold and has given the team as much of a boost as the Twins could have possibly hoped to receive from Berrios.

On Sunday, Tyler Duffey picked up a win in what could be framed as a season-saving victory. With the team having dropped the first three games of a four-game set, and in danger of falling behind the Angels in the wild-card race with another loss, Duffey played the role of stopper, firing seven shutout innings to end a five-game losing streak.

As we all remember, Duffey was shelled in his first start for the Twins, coughing up six runs in two innings, but that was pretty easy to excuse given that it was his major-league debut in the league's toughest current pitching environment. Since that outing, the right-hander has been nothing short of spectacular, going 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 43-to-16 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings.

Leaning heavily on a standout curveball, Duffey has largely had his way with big-league hitters, who have been unable to adjust. The 24-year-old's last three starts have been his most impressive; he has pitched at least into the seventh every time out, allowing a total of three runs on 16 hits in 20 innings with 22 strikeouts and four walks. And this at a time where the Twins are in dire need of quality outings.

Duffey's calling card in the minors was his ability to keep the ball in yard. Prior to his call-up, he had allowed just one home run in 22 starts between Chattanooga and Rochester. This strength has been on display in the majors as well. Since giving up two bombs against the dominating Jays lineup in his first start, Duffey has allowed only one homer in seven turns. His current HR/9 rate with the Twins (0.6) is identical to his mark over 477 innings on the farm.

He has also been missing bats, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning overall (8.7 K/9) with the big club. The combination of piling up strikeouts while limiting home runs is a promising one, as you can see based on this list:

Qualified MLB Starters With >8.0 K/9 &

Tyson Ross, SD: 3.18 ERA

Jake Arrieta, CHC: 1.96 ERA

Gio Gonzalez, WAS: 3.83 ERA

Gerrit Cole, PIT: 2.64 ERA

Zack Greinke, LAD: 1.64 ERA

Clayton Kershaw, LAD: 2.18 ERA

Carlos Martinez, STL: 3.01 ERA

Dallas Keuchel, HOU, 2.51 ERA

David Price, DET: 2.34 ERA

Francisco Liriano, PIT: 3.41 ERA

Lance Lynn, STL: 3.28 ERA

Madison Bumgarner, SF: 2.84 ERA

Chris Archer, TB: 2.92 ERA

Jon Lester, CHC: 3.46 ERA

Jacob deGrom, NYM: 2.64 ERA

Corey Kluber, CLE: 3.44 ERA

Carlos Carrasco, CLE: 3.62 ERA

Cole Hamels, TEX: 3.67 ERA

Matt Harvey, NYM: 2.80 ERA

Chris Sale, CWS: 3.47 ERA

Those are some of the biggest names among starting pitchers in the game, and almost without exception, they're all having excellent years. Obviously, their success and their commonality in the K and HR categories are not coincidentally tied – these are foundational components of good pitching.

It remains to be seen whether Duffey can maintain his effectiveness in both regards. In particular, his strikeout rate is a bit out of line with his track record, although given the sheer beauty of his hook and the way he has continually elevated his game as a pro, it's not that hard to buy.

Back before he debuted, I wrote about how the former college closer and fifth round pick was proving to be a draft gem for the Twins, and that only rings more true in light of his resounding initial success at the highest level. What his future holds is difficult to say at this point, but for now he's proving to be a vital cog in the rotation.

Duffey is going to be an interesting piece in an upcoming offseason where Minnesota must make some decisions on a rotation that is shaping up to be a bit overcrowded heading into 2016.