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  • Draft Changes As Result of New CBA


    Jeremy Nygaard

    The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the MLB and players included some changes to the annual MLB Draft. While there are some interesting new wrinkles, there is still one big missing piece.

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    The biggest, most significant change will be the introduction of a Draft Lottery beginning in 2023. In an anti-tanking measure, MLBPA was pushing for more teams to be included in the lottery. The more teams included, the less appealing having the worst record is. MLB wanted less teams. The compromise, eventually, was six teams, which should be considered a win for the union.

    The worst three teams will each have an equal shot (16.5%) at getting the first overall pick, while the tenth worst and better will all have less than a 2% chance at getting the first overall pick. 

    There are some interesting caveats to be included in the lottery though. According to MLB.com, "teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall."

    The last sentence is interesting to me. I take that to read that a unsigned player in the top 10 will net the team a pick no higher than 10th. So if you don't sign the top pick, you're not getting pick #2 the following year. You're getting pick #10.

    Speaking of unsigned players, a rule will be put into place that any Top 300 player who submits to a pre-draft physical cannot be offered less than 75% of his drat slot. It's being referred to as the "Kumar Rocker Rule," which is interesting. Rocker was drafted and not offered a contract by the Mets after failing a post-draft physical, but he didn't share his pre-draft medicals. Maybe he would have taken a pre-draft physical... but either way, what this is aiming to solve wasn't the reason that Kumar Rocker didn't sign.

    Another interesting tidbit is the return of draft-and-follows. Nick Blackburn may be the best-known example as it pertains to the Twins. The "draft-and-follow" allows you to select a player and, if that player attends junior college, you retain his signing rights until the next year's draft. So teams will take a flyer on a guy, continue to watch him play the next season, and then sign him. 

    The Twins drafted Nick Blackburn in the 29th round of the 2001 draft. He didn't sign, and instead pitched a second year at Seminole State College, and the Twins signed him before the 2002 draft. Blackburn became the organization's #1 prospect and a mainstay in the Twins rotation for five years.

    Additionally, the time of the 40-round draft has officially come to an end. The draft will be 20 rounds, as it was last year, for the next five years.

    There was not an agreement on an International Draft, but there will be before July 25. If there isn't, draft-pick compensation will be tied to free agents, something the union wants to rid themselves of.

    So what's missing? The ability to trade draft picks. I really thought/hoped it would find its way into this CBA. Guess we'll have to wait another five years.

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    23 hours ago, roger said:

    Where the 75% of slot hurts is signing a senior in the 9th round and paying him $15k, then using the extra to go over slot on another pick.

    That was my initial reaction too but the guys agreeing to those deals are not Top 300 prospects, so the rule wouldn't likely apply to them. 

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    On 3/12/2022 at 2:40 PM, DJL44 said:

    Injury-risk players are going to slide right out of the first round. You can always go over slot but now you can only go down to 75% of slot. Better to grab those guys in the 5th round or lower. Also, doesn't this mean that there is less flexibility signing players for way below slot? Top 300 players is anyone selected in the top 8 rounds. Is the 'top 300' ranking before or after the draft happens?

    I'm assuming MLB will invite 300 players to a combine-sort of thing and those players will have their medicals looked into and approved before the draft begins.

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    8 hours ago, old nurse said:

    That Blackburn was a top 100 in Baseball prospectus and nowhere else should be an indication something is wrong with the metric. That Blackburn was number one when others had him so much lower should be a clue that something is wrong. You can call it a fact, but it is an opinion that is so far out of line with others it should be a red flag unless you a mocking prospect rankings. If you were mocking them, good job

    Was it that out of line? Guy became a mid-rotation starter... looking at other lists, they have Blackburn behind the likes of Deolis Guerra and Tyler Robertson. 

    And the point wasn't that you can use this mechanism to find #1 prospects, just that draft-and-follows have existed before and that was how the Twins acquired Nick Blackburn, a name that many readers probably recognize. 

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    14 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

    That was my initial reaction too but the guys agreeing to those deals are not Top 300 prospects, so the rule wouldn't likely apply to them. 

    OK, that makes sense...I think.  I read it as the top 300 picks, or the first ten rounds.  Do you know how they will define the top 300?

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    5 minutes ago, roger said:

    OK, that makes sense...I think.  I read it as the top 300 picks, or the first ten rounds.  Do you know how they will define the top 300?

    I do not. But that list will have to be furnished to the clubs and they'll know that they will have to do a little more work on guys they draft off that list. It will probably not even move the needle for most teams, but there are teams - I know the Orioles have this reputation - that tend to find more concerning things in physicals than other teams.

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    On 3/12/2022 at 7:51 AM, HrbieFan said:

    The union wants to stop teams from doing what the As are going to do IMO. I am shocked the union didn't get a floor salary # for every team. 

    The MLBPA could have easily gotten a salary floor had they wanted it, so long as they also agreed to a hard salary cap.  They didn't, so they didn't.

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