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  • DOA At The Deadline

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    They were never supposed to be here to begin with.

    I find it important to remind myself of this as I absorb the massive gut punch delivered by Minnesota's rapid fall from contention in the American League Central. This team, fresh off a 103-loss season, gave us all a hell of a ride by hanging around the top of the division for the better part of four months, and even spending six weeks in first place.

    This summer has been infinitely more fun than the last for baseball fans. I appreciate that. Still, watching it all come crashing down in spectacular fashion, it's hard not to feel a sense of familiar dread.

    Image courtesy of Troy Taormina, USA Today

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    To go from a half-game out of first place to six games out within the span of eight days is actually quite astounding, made possible by a couple of lousy series against Detroit and Los Angeles while the Indians and Royals have both taken off. At crunch time, these teams are all showing their mettle.

    I'm not going to take the hack columnist route and call the Twins gutless, or frauds. They've battled in these games, and overperformed like hell to get to this point. But if the front office decides to start flipping core players like Brandon Kintzler, Ervin Santana or even Brian Dozier within the next few days, the players will have no one to blame but themselves.

    They got a vote of confidence from GM Thad Levine, who went out and acquired one of the best rental starters available, and they immediately flatlined. In three straight games against the (admittedly phenomenal) Dodgers, the Twins took leads and let them slip away. Two of the losses came with their best relievers (Kintzler and Taylor Rogers) on the mound. Repeatedly the offense failed to capitalize on big scoring chances. (The bases-loaded ineptitude has been particularly agonizing.)

    And, well, that kind of failure is all too recognizable. The Twins have developed a reputation for coming up short in recent years, and after a solid start this season they've fallen right back into that pit. Since moving seven games above .500 by completing a sweep of the Orioles on May 24th, they are 24-33, good for a .421 winning percentage that matches their overall mark from the past six years exactly.

    Sure, the Twins are now steering for clearer waters after running through a post-break gauntlet, with series against the Athletics, Padres, Rangers and slumping Brewers ahead, but there's not really anything to suggest they'll take advantage in a significant way. The breakout players that powered their early ascent have dropped off almost without exception.

    Ervin Santana has a 5.46 ERA and and .908 OPS allowed since the beginning of June. Jose Berrios has a 5.79 ERA and (incidentally identical) .908 OPS allowed in July. Miguel Sano is hitting .238/.319/.397 with a 26-to-5 K/BB ratio since the Fourth of July. Max Kepler is at .222/.286/.302 over the same span. Joe Mauer hasn't hit the ball with any kind of authority since returning from a back strain earlier this month; he's managed one extra-base hit (a double) in 38 plate appearances.

    The blueprint for this team to stay in the postseason mix involved all of these players turning it on in the second half, not turning into pumpkins. Alas, here we are.

    The Twins have stunned us time and time again with their resilience this summer, and perhaps their biggest surprise is yet to come, but watching them over the course of the past week, it sure feels like they've run out of whatever juice propelled them through the first half.

    So now Levine and Derek Falvey, taking a big picture view, must concentrate on squeezing whatever juice they can from this roster. It might mean making some hard decisions this weekend, though the team's play over the past week has made them a little easier.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Seriously, it feels like you're trolling me right now. I'm just going to copy and paste the second paragraph from two posts ago:

     

    "I'm not even saying the Twins have drafted badly, as they've acquired some nice pieces further down the draft board but their first round picks have been mostly underwhelming, which is a problem when you're picking at the top of the draft on a regular basis."

    You changed the goalposts after your first comment. This isn't trolling. This is being consistent.

     

    I go back further than that where you corrected someone that said 'their drafting has been very good'. 

     

    No, the Twins drafting has been very good. Not acceptable as you stated. If you want to continue to disregard anyone not drafted in the top 5 then I will continue to disagree with you.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

     

    You changed the goalposts after your first comment. This isn't trolling. This is being consistent.

     

    I go back further than that where you corrected someone that said 'their drafting has been very good'. 

     

    No, the Twins drafting has been very good. Not acceptable as you stated. If you want to continue to disregard anyone not drafted in the top 5 then I will continue to disagree with you.

    How on earth am I moving the goalposts? I'll boil it down as simply as I can:

     

    The Twins have drafted badly at the top of drafts. If I'm being generous, they've drafted below average at the top of the draft. Inversely, the Twins have drafted very well further down the board.

     

    When I combine those two elements, I see an acceptable, if underwhelming, draft methodology.

     

    If the Twins drafted so well, how did they manage to assemble a mid-pack farm system after picking second, fourth, fifth, and sixth in consecutive seasons? The only every day regulars/starting pitchers to graduate thus far have been Buxton (a disappointment) and Berrios (a very good starter). The rest of the pack has been pretty meh, if not outright disappointments. Outside of Gordon, they don't even have a top prospect from the first round of any of those drafts.

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    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    How on earth am I moving the goalposts? I'll boil it down as simply as I can:

     

    The Twins have drafted badly at the top of drafts. If I'm being generous, they've drafted below average at the top of the draft. Inversely, the Twins have drafted very well further down the board.

     

    When I combine those two elements, I see an acceptable, if underwhelming, draft methodology.

     

    If the Twins drafted so well, how did they manage to assemble a mid-pack farm system after picking second, fourth, fifth, and sixth in consecutive seasons? The only every day regulars/starting pitchers to graduate thus far have been Buxton (a disappointment) and Berrios (a very good starter). The rest of the pack has been pretty meh, if not outright disappointments. Outside of Gordon, they don't even have a top prospect from the first round of any of those drafts.

    You moved the goalposts (or criteria more accurately) by leaving out non top 5 draft picks.

     

    The fact is that most of the Twins lineup was drafted or sign as int'l FA's. That is impressive for most teams. A guy like Rosario misses your credit by a year. Buxton might be a disappointment but he is 23 and likely to win a Gold Glove (deservedly). Berrios is definitely better than average. And there are plenty of other players with potential in those drafts and more recent ones. I think you have judged draft success too harshly. Just my opinion I guess. Perhaps they should have been perfect in their selections.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

     

    You moved the goalposts (or criteria more accurately) by leaving out non top 5 draft picks.

     

    The fact is that most of the Twins lineup was drafted or sign as int'l FA's. That is impressive for most teams. A guy like Rosario misses your credit by a year. Buxton might be a disappointment but he is 23 and likely to win a Gold Glove (deservedly). Berrios is definitely better than average. And there are plenty of other players with potential in those drafts and more recent ones. I think you have judged draft success too harshly. Just my opinion I guess. Perhaps they should have been perfect in their selections.

    And you were doing so well until the bolded.

     

    I have said multiple times I do not expect perfection. But what I do expect is for the team to not miss on two consecutive top six picks, which is an entirely reasonable stance to have.

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    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    And you were doing so well until the bolded.

     

    I have said multiple times I do not expect perfection. But what I do expect is for the team to not miss on two consecutive top six picks, which is an entirely reasonable stance to have.

    Stewart and Jay weren't consecutive picks so... They have hit on several picks (not all in the top 6) in that timespan and the early returns for the most recent picks looks very promising.

     

    In fact there is a decent chance that they average one average or better player during that timespan. That is very good imo.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

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    • Posted

     

    Stewart and Jay weren't consecutive picks so... They have hit on several picks (not all in the top 6) in that timespan and the early returns for the most recent picks looks very promising.

     

    In fact there is a decent chance that they average one average or better player during that timespan. That is very good imo.

    That's fair, which is why I called their drafts acceptable (good catch on Stewart and Jay, I always try to lump them together but Gordon was between them).

     

    But I have issues with a team that drafts two pitchers near the top of the draft and bombs on both of them. I don't think that's an unreasonable stance to take. If even one of them looked to become a league average starter, my opinion changes drastically.

     

    You can miss at the top of the draft. You can't miss more than once. I don't expect every player to become a star but at least half of them need to contribute. And it's not as if the rest of the draft has cranked out superstars to make up that deficit. The Twins got Berrios - 2012 was an excellent draft overall - but it's not as if Gonsalves is expected to step up and be a left-handed version of Jose. He's likely back of the rotation material. Very valuable in the 3rd or 4th round, whenever the Twins got him, but not exactly a replacement for missing on both Jay and Stewart.

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    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    That's fair, which is why I called their drafts acceptable (good catch on Stewart and Jay, I always try to lump them together but Gordon was between them).

     

    But I have issues with a team that drafts two pitchers near the top of the draft and bombs on both of them. I don't think that's an unreasonable stance to take. If even one of them looked to become a league average starter, my opinion changes drastically.

     

    You can miss at the top of the draft. You can't miss more than once. I don't expect every player to become a star but at least half of them need to contribute. And it's not as if the rest of the draft has cranked out superstars to make up that deficit. The Twins got Berrios - 2012 was an excellent draft overall - but it's not as if Gonsalves is expected to step up and be a left-handed version of Jose. He's likely back of the rotation material. Very valuable in the 3rd or 4th round, whenever the Twins got him, but not exactly a replacement for missing on both Jay and Stewart.

    This article shows that picks 1-5 have an acceptable (1.5-2.5 WAR player) or superior player outcome 40% of the time. Your expectation that the Twins shouldn't have missed on two pitching picks (likely a lower chance of success than pitchers) seems unrealistic according to odds since the Twins have most likely hit on Buxton and Gordon as acceptable players.

     

    Are you saying that the Twins should be at the 75% level of top 6 picks? And that is neglecting Berrios, Gonsalves, Kirilloff (who knows his outcome) or Lewis (the hype train is starting to roll).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

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