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  • Deadline Primer: Catcher On The Rise


    Nick Nelson

    The All Star break is over. Now, with just over two weeks until the deadline, it’s trade season. That much was made clear on Thursday, when the Red Sox dealt a top pitching prospect to San Diego in exchange for impact starter Drew Pomeranz.

    Image courtesy of Tim Heltman, USA Today

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    Boston had been mentioned as a possible destination for Ervin Santana, who suddenly carries intriguing trade value, but is now off the board for starting pitching. And yet, one position where the Red Sox, along with many other contenders, could still use help is catcher. It's a source of offensive weakness across the league. American League catchers collectively have a .671 OPS, which is 60 points lower than the next-worst position (left field).

    This makes the timing of Kurt Suzuki's astonishing evolution with the bat quite fortuitous. It's difficult to comprehend, but after his scorching last six weeks Suzuki suddenly leads all AL catchers in batting average and ranks third in OPS.

    Given the generally subpar level of play that we've seen from him over the past two years, it's tempting to pass this off as a fluke. But Suzuki's torrid streak has sustained for quite a while and shows no signs of dissipating.

    What triggered this shocking turnaround? Optimal health at last? A new bat type? Plain and simple adjustments?

    Who knows, but this much is clear: Terry Ryan now stands at a point of great leverage.

    The Case For Trading Suzuki

    Boston's willingness to surrender Anderson Espinoza, one of the most highly regarded young arms in the minors, for Pomeranz signals that we're looking at a seller's market. The addition of a second wild-card slot means that 19 MLB teams are realistically in the postseason race, and looking for an edge.

    Picking up a catcher who is in the zone like Suzuki would provide just that. Some teams are flat-out desperate for any kind of offensive threat behind the plate. The Indians, who currently lead the AL Central, have had no choice but to stick with Yan Gomes as their regular despite his .166 average and .516 OPS. The Tigers are chasing them with James McCann – owner of a .208 average and .563 OPS – as their majority backstop. The third-place White Sox are trotting out Dioner Navarro, who is also batting .208. And that's just in this division.

    The aforementioned Red Sox, who have demonstrated an all-in type of aggressiveness, may fancy the idea of bringing in a well respected and red-hot veteran like Suzuki to bang liners off the Green Monster.

    He's inexpensive this year. He has a very reasonable $6 million option attached to his contract for next year. His unceasing toughness sets a good example, and pitchers love working with him. It isn't difficult to envision a scenario in which Suzuki garners some significant offers, especially if he keeps raking for a couple more weeks. Can the Twins, now thrust back into rebuilding mode, afford to pass them up?

    The Case For Keeping Suzuki

    The problem with giving up Suzuki is that the cupboard is completely bare for 2017. John Ryan Murphy is batting .208 with a .558 OPS in Triple-A, and he qualifies as the next most credible option in the organization as a starting catcher.

    If the Twins have aspirations of bouncing back and returning to contention next year – and it's not that far-fetched – they either need keep Suzuki and activate his option, or enter the offseason frantically searching for an answer. Are they ready to get into a high-stakes bidding war for Wilson Ramos or Matt Wieters, given the number of clubs seeking such players? Not likely.

    This team has stuck with Suzuki through some lean times. He stayed in the lineup steadily last year even while posting terrible numbers, and during the offseason, the front office brought in more of a caddy/protege than replacement. Now that he's finally playing up to his potential, and the organization is bereft of contingency plans, it won't be easy to pry Suzuki away.

    It all comes down to getting an offer that can't be refused. With 17 days remaining until the deadline, we'll see it if comes.

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    Murphy, BTW, has come on strong of late.  Not sure what was going on earlier this season, but he seems to have figured things out (at least in a SSS capacity). 

    Murphy in the month of May following his demotion (74 PA): .154/.230/.169
    Murphy since June 1st (113 PA): .228/.283/.356

    :/

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    http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/vesting-option

     

    "In most cases, a vesting option that fails to vest can still be exercised as a club option."

     

    I believe this to be the case.

    Thanks. I thought that too, although the example in that link (Santiago Casilla) was also widely reported as a club option. Much like Ervin's.

     

    Just seemed odd that Suzuki's was never reported that way, although I suppose no one expected the team would want to exercise it if given the choice.

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    Since the Twin's system is so flushed with catching talent that we can give away talent at the position, how is Hicks doing for the Tigers??

    Hicks has a 153 wRC+ in AAA this year, compared to Murphy's 57. Would have been nice to be able to give him a MLB audition if Murphy wasn't ready. Wonder if he will get a call from the Tigers soon.

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    Hicks has a 153 wRC+ in AAA this year, compared to Murphy's 57. Would have been nice to be able to give him a MLB audition if Murphy wasn't ready. Wonder if he will get a call from the Tigers soon.

    My TR bashing probably gets old but chalk up another bad baseball decision for the old codger.  Too bad the Pohlad's don't follow baseball so they were aware of some of these bad calls because until they do it's going to be more of the same I fear.....

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    Murphy isn't the answer at catcher either. He'd be an acceptable backup, though. Even if we trade Suzuki, and Murphy comes up and BABIPS his way to a decent 2nd half (unlikely), just like he did in 2015, I wouldn't want to pencil him in as the starter next season. He is what he is at this point, a light hitting backup catcher. And he hasn't shown anything in AAA this season, so even that might be a bit of a stretch.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by King
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    Disagree. This is the real Suzuki. He has a few hot weeks, a few OK weeks, a few really stinky weeks. In the end he is a catcher who is not good, but not terrible and can play a lot of innings. Some teams value that.

     

    But I highly doubt this is a sell high moment on Suzuki. Every GM would know what they are getting with him.

    Not exactly what I meant. My point was that a few hot weeks from Suzuki should not change the Twins' mind about keeping him around or not.

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    ......... No team is foolish enough to take first half stats and use them to project second half stats..........

    But hey, fans do it right here on these boards all the time.... even to make the case that a player is suddenly an all-star!

    Edited by h2oface
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    Seems like a hot-hitting catcher with a track record of having had at least one similar stretch would be an extremely desirable trade commodity.  Even if this isn't the "real" Suzuki, and all stats and projections say he won't keep it up, gambling that he can for a few weeks might be a pretty good move for a playoff hopeful.  Like April games, mid-July games count just as much as game 162.

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    My TR bashing probably gets old but chalk up another bad baseball decision for the old codger.  Too bad the Pohlad's don't follow baseball so they were aware of some of these bad calls because until they do it's going to be more of the same I fear.....

     

     

    I agree. About the bad baseball decision I mean. The TR bashing is really refreshing. ;)

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    Unfortunately, Ryan is probably more likely to extend him than trade him.

     

    I've watched him operate long enough to have learned to never get my hopes up in these situations. We go through this every year, and nothing significant ever happens the deadline, whether he is running a winner (which is almost never), or a loser.

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    He is a free agent at year's end. You trade him and get something in return. If you truly want him back, you go after him in the offseason. But I would feel better if we got some return on the past investment than just seeing him walk. 

     

    Face it, we aren't getting any better this year. We need more player options in the way of prospects. If we just let him walk...we have zip.

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    Hicks has a 153 wRC+ in AAA this year, compared to Murphy's 57. Would have been nice to be able to give him a MLB audition if Murphy wasn't ready. Wonder if he will get a call from the Tigers soon.

    McCann and salty are having such great season that they are blocking such a fine catcher having an outlier season while stuck in the minors. .It is the instant ex Twin as suddenly a great player potential for Hicks that should be placing him in the major league in three years Those 3 years, and 4 organizations will pass so quickly for some. So fast it would be leaving the fanbase  here to bemoan what coulda been if the Twins FO only had a brain ( a heart, for courage, and a nerve, too) or a least a wizard manipulating things

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    Hicks has a 153 wRC+ in AAA this year, compared to Murphy's 57. Would have been nice to be able to give him a MLB audition if Murphy wasn't ready. Wonder if he will get a call from the Tigers soon.

    Yup. Another case of roster mismanagement. I didn't get the need to DFA him.

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    Murphy in the month of May following his demotion (74 PA): .154/.230/.169
    Murphy since June 1st (113 PA): .228/.283/.356

    :/

    I was looking more at his June numbers (279/.346/.456).  Didn't realize he dropped off the planet again in July.

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    So, with Yan Gomes out (potentially for the season), it will be interesting to see what Cleveland does at catcher.

     

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/yan-gomes-dl-indians-trade-catcher.html

     

    Roberto Perez is probably more than a backup -- a good eye and decent power, plus strong defensive marks:

     

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/17/11024080/indians-trade-roberto-perez-yan-gomes-framing-diamondbacks-nationals-hot-stove

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    I'd love to make Suzuki to the Indians a reality. Someone in the 6-15 range in their prospect org chart will work for me. Perhaps RHP Triston McKenzie? 

    DOB: 08/02/1997

    Height/Weight: 6’5” 160 lbs.
    Future Tools: 55 fastball, 55 curve, 55 change
    Role: 50—No. 4 starter/high-leverage reliever

    When we say McKenzie offers projection, we mean projection. He’s wafer-thin (Mr. Creosote would be tempted), and it is an open question whether his frame will fill out with enough good weight that he can hold up as a starter. Despite the durability concerns, sources called McKenzie one of the most impressive pitchers in the AZL.
     

    McKenzie touches 93 with his four-seamer, and while it typically sits in the high 80s at present there’s obvious room to add a couple notches to the sitting velocity and push the pitch into plus territory. Both his curveball and change are more advanced—a rarity for a pitcher this young—with the curve occasionally showing plus thanks to its depth and hard spin. The change is an above-average offering, as he generates late fade and sells it with excellent arm speed. Like every other pitcher in the system, the delivery is easy to repeat, and he can throw strikes with all three of his pitches, though he can get wild in the zone.
     

    He’s light years away from contributing, but outside of Aiken, McKenzie offers the most upside of any pitcher in the system.

    Source of info: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28224
     

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    The reason for our problems this season, have nothing to do will catcher. I would sign Suzuki for 1 year, and if push comes to shove 2. Paired with John Ryan Murphy, we will be fine as we move back into contention in 2017 and beyond.

    Edited by howieramone2
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    The Indians have stated that catcher is not a priority. I am sure they would listen if the deal had a cheap prospect cost. Gimenez and Perez are both good defensive catchers. Suzuki may not be a significant upgrade worthy of a good prospect.

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