Cody's 2016 Twins Offseason Blueprint

beckmt · November 8, 2016

Due to his back issues, I doubt in the long term Trevor May is a bullpen piece. I might non-tender Gibson, who to me is looking more like rotation filler than anything else or hopefully include him in a trade. Feel Twins should be looking at young top of rotation pitchers in a Dozier deal, also given there starting pitching issues, do not feel Mets will deal until late spring if at all, would target Pirates or Dodgers as a place for Dozier.

Bullpen needs a major upgrade, do not see a path here.

mdonaghue · November 8, 2016

I don't understand how "veteran presence" Plouffe helps a team that lost 103 games. He takes playing time away from younger players. At this point in his career Sano is a terrible fielder. Koskie was a erroneous fielder at this point in his career, too. Sano needs to play his position every day.

Keep Kintzler and Gibson. Keep Kintzler for 1 year and transition May to the bullpen with an eye towards becoming the closer by the end of the year. Trade Dozier for true top of the rotation talent. Berrios becomes 5th starter as he grows into the MLB game.

Bullpen could be better simply if starters can stay healthy and get the ERA down.

Let Plouffe go. Put Sano at 3rd every day. Escobar at short. Polanco at 2nd. Vargas at 1st. Mauer full time DH/back-up 1B. Outfield appears set.

Is that a team that could win 70 games?

pierre75275 · November 8, 2016

I think tendering Plouffe would be a huge mistake. He was untradeable last offseason and isn't worth anything near 9 million. If he is signed this year for that amount he will be untradeable next year as well. Non tender him and if you think he is needed sign him back at a much lower cost. Look at the contract David Freese signed. And if you can't sign Plouffe back, he isn't needed on the team anyway and good for him for landing a deal somewhere else hopefully on a contender

jimmer · November 8, 2016

I think tendering Plouffe would be a huge mistake. He was untradeable last offseason and isn't worth anything near 9 million. If he is signed this year for that amount he will be untradeable next year as well. Non tender him and if you think he is needed sign him back at a much lower cost. Look at the contract David Freese signed. And if you can't sign Plouffe back, he isn't needed on the team anyway and good for him for landing a deal somewhere else hopefully on a contender

We really don't know f he was un-tradeable last year. To know that, we'd have to assume Ryan actually tried to trade him and it seems he didn't, by the quotes I remember..

The question is whether or not a healthy Plouffe goes back to something like 2014 or 2015 Plouffe. If so, 9M will be a bargain for him. Of course, seems most everyone wants Sano at 3B, so maybe we just roll the dice and take our chances by letting Sano play 3B all year.

Edited November 8, 2016 by jimmer

Mr. Brooks · November 8, 2016

Breaking news... The Twins aren't going to win the World Series in 2017. It's going to take time to turn this organization around. Derek Falvey might have packed up some of Cleveland's magical roster dust but even Theo Epstein didn't turn the Cubs around in a year.

Each off-season starts with a plan. Here's my blueprint to get the organization moving in the right direction.Arbitration Decisions
Trevor Plouffe might be the toughest decision in the group but it makes sense to keep him around. Sano hasn't proven he can be an everyday third baseman. Plouffe provides some Sano insurance and he can be used at other places in the line-up. His name has been part of the hot stove discussion over the last couple of years. It wouldn't be a surprise if Plouffe ended up on another team by the middle of the season.

The Twins Daily blueprint included non-tendering Hector Santiago and Brandon Kintzler. I think it makes sense to keep both of them. Minnesota's roster doesn't have an overload of pitching. It would be easy to get rid of both of them and some of it will depend on the other members being traded away in the coming months.

Here's the arbitration player rundown:
-3B Trevor Plouffe – $9 million
-SP Hector Santiago – $9 million
-IF Eduardo Escobar – $3.5 million
-SP Kyle Gibson – $2.5 million
-RP Brandon Kintzler – $2.5 million
-RP Ryan Pressly – $1.5 million
Total: $28 million

Dealing Dozier
Brian Dozier's value is never going to be higher. He is the leader of the team on and off the field but the Twins need pitching. Also, Dozier's not likely going to be part of the next winning team in Minnesota so it makes sense to trade him. The Twins Daily offseason handbook names the Mets as a potential trade partner because of their surplus of young pitching. This is where I deal Dozier.

If the Mets come calling with the right package, the Twins will have to listen. Left-handed pitcher Steven Matz has posted a 3.16 ERA through 28 career starts and he's the main piece of the puzzle. There would likely be other prospect pieces involved but Matz is the center of a Dozier swap.

Free Agent Frenzy... Well, Not Really
This might be one of the worst free agent classes of all-time. There's not a lot of talent and the second-tier of players is quite a drop-off. Teams are going to spend money but it doesn't mean it is going to be wisely spent.

With the Twins deciding to part ways with Kurt Suzuki, there's a need to add a new backstop. Former Twins catcher Wilson Ramos will likely get the biggest free agent deal. The Twins Daily plan and Brandon Warne's plan included signing Jason Castro. He's a cheaper option and could help bridge the gap to some younger catchers in the Twins farm system.

There are no great options and Falvey will have to decide how close Mitch Garver is to being an everyday catcher. With little depth in the catching market, I think Castro finds a bigger deal with a team that is closer to winning. Minnesota will be left with some of the scraps. I give Alex Avila a one-year deal to platoon with John Ryan Murphy. I think Garver should be getting regular at-bats by mid-season.

The bullpen also needs an upgrade. Names like Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen are going to sign huge contracts. I offer Scott Feldman a two-year deal with some incentives as he has shown some positive signs since joining the bullpen. Who knows? Maybe he turns into a valuable asset that the Twins can trade in the future.

With Dozier gone, I look to add a veteran infield option to help pick up some of the slack. Stephen Drew has played both shortstop and second base and he showed a little upside in 2016. He'd be cheap and would be easily expendable if other in-house options show they are MLB ready.

Here's the rundown of my 25-man roster. Feel free discuss my plan in the comments section.

Click here to view the article

You have the Twins carrying an 11 man pitching staff?

That'll be the day.

diehardtwinsfan · November 8, 2016

We really don't know f he was un-tradeable last year. To know that, we'd have to assume Ryan actually tried to trade him and it seems he didn't, by the quotes I remember..

The question is whether or not a healthy Plouffe goes back to something like 2014 or 2015 Plouffe. If so, 9M will be a bargain for him. Of course, seems most everyone wants Sano at 3B, so maybe we just roll the dice and take our chances by letting Sano play 3B all year.

True to a point, but judging by the returns that teams got for the moves that were made, Plouffe wasn't going to net much of anything.

mazeville · November 8, 2016

Why keep Plouffe at $9 million?

Everything else seems good to me. I like the Stephen Drew signing in particular.

But I'm still wondering about a potential Santana trade. Then again, you could trade Ervin Santana at the trade deadline for a lot more than you could in the offseason. Yet given the lack of arms on the free agent market, I think you investigate that and see what people offer.

old nurse · November 8, 2016

We really don't know f he was un-tradeable last year. To know that, we'd have to assume Ryan actually tried to trade him and it seems he didn't, by the quotes I remember..

The question is whether or not a healthy Plouffe goes back to something like 2014 or 2015 Plouffe. If so, 9M will be a bargain for him. Of course, seems most everyone wants Sano at 3B, so maybe we just roll the dice and take our chances by letting Sano play 3B all year.

The return on any traded 3b was a pittance compared to value. The free aagent contracts signed were of minimal value. Plouffe certainly was tradeable. The consensus would be it is a bad idea trading for nothing when a player is at his likely peak

Homer Hanky · November 8, 2016

I think there is 0% that Santana is on this team...

Mike Sixel · November 8, 2016

Danny Santana and Grossman? No. No. No. They are both terrible MLB players, terrible. Mind. Boggling. Truly.

I don't get the Plouffe thing. He won't be here when they are good. Sano should be trying 3B for half a year. If Sano fails at 3B, I would have signed a AAA type 3B as insurance.

Camdog5555 · November 8, 2016

I think there is 0% that Santana is on this team...

Which Santana? There are arguments for both so...

ThejacKmp · November 8, 2016

1) Plouffe should only be signed to arbitration if the Twins are pretty sure they can move him before the season. I've heard too much talk of "Plouffe will rebuild his value" - I think that ship sailed about three years ago. Time to get Sano at 3B and let him sink or swim. And use spring training to give Kepler and Mauer some reps at 3B. His spot can be taken by Park so that we have all the first basemen.

2) Don't understand why we would want Alex Avila or any veteran placeholder catcher. I'm very comfortable with a Centeno/JRM platoon with Garver getting 1/2 to 3/4 of a year seasoning in AAA. Avila adds nothing besides veteran moxie and I'm sick of veteran moxie. How much better is Avila than the random catching depth that will be floating around at midseason.

3.) I'm fine with keeping Santiago since the Twins can use pitching depth and it's not like they'd be able go out and spend that money in a better way. Santiago is basically a one-year deal for a 4th starter ceiling and 6th starter floor. That's about what that costs.

4.) Same thing with Kintzler. $2.5 million is a small gamble with funds the Twins won't use otherwise. If he has a good half year, he'll get something at the deadline. If not, he can be cut six weeks in.

5.) I see no way the Twins have Drew in a Dozier-less world. Drew is going to want to start and the Twins have Polanco and Escobar. I'd rather carry a 12th pitcher and have Santana be the backup middle infielder. The Twins have Vielma in AA/AAA this year if Escobar craps the bed and Gordon making the jump to AA and potentially ready for a September cup-of-coffee. That's enough middle infield depth and you still have the Beresford types if something happens early in the season.

6.) This isn't mentioned but Phil Hughes will likely play a role as he is supposed to be ready for spring training. I'd rather see him in the pen at this point (expensive but he was a great setup man earlier in his career) but he also provides some back-of-the-rotation starting pitching depth as well.

7.) No opinion on Grossman. He's an okay 4th OF. He should compete with ABW and Palka for that job. I think he should get it because I want those two playing every day and working on cutting down K's. If an OF goes down, bring ABW or Palka up to start.

Vanimal46 · November 8, 2016

1) Plouffe should only be signed to arbitration if the Twins are pretty sure they can move him before the season. I've heard too much talk of "Plouffe will rebuild his value" - I think that ship sailed about three years ago. Time to get Sano at 3B and let him sink or swim. And use spring training to give Kepler and Mauer some reps at 3B. His spot can be taken by Park so that we have all the first basemen.

2) Don't understand why we would want Alex Avila or any veteran placeholder catcher. I'm very comfortable with a Centeno/JRM platoon with Garver getting 1/2 to 3/4 of a year seasoning in AAA. Avila adds nothing besides veteran moxie and I'm sick of veteran moxie. How much better is Avila than the random catching depth that will be floating around at midseason.

Agreed on Plouffe. I'm also tired of the Plouffe will rebuild has value argument.

I'm not comfortable at all with a Centeno/JRM platoon, and think it's crucial to sign a defensive minded C to help the rotation. Centeno was very, very bad defensively last season. He doesn't hit well enough to make up for his lack of defensive abilities.

Mike Sixel · November 8, 2016

Agreed on Plouffe. I'm also tired of the Plouffe will rebuild has value argument.

I'm not comfortable at all with a Centeno/JRM platoon, and think it's crucial to sign a defensive minded C to help the rotation. Centeno was very, very bad defensively last season. He doesn't hit well enough to make up for his lack of defensive abilities.

So much this on catcher. So much this.

Loosey · November 8, 2016

My argument against signing Plouffe again is stated in your first sentence:

"Breaking news... The Twins aren't going to win the World Series in 2017."

Plouffe is a solid middle of the road 3rd baseman, but is not needed on a 103 loss team. The market for him will be low level prospect if he is traded. On top of that he takes playing time from players the Twins need to see on a daily basis.

Loosey · November 8, 2016

1) And use spring training to give Kepler and Mauer some reps at 3B. His spot can be taken by Park so that we have all the first basemen.

Typo?

bcs4 · November 8, 2016

Keep Dozier unless someone really, really wants him. If the rationalization is that he won't be around for a championship, you could say exactly the same thing for any pitcher that you'd trade him for. Unless they can get a legitimate #2 + good prospects or #1 starter keep him. He is worth that much.

Let Plouffe go.

If Sano doesn't change his attitude, trade him in 2 years. He's not likely to be a 3rd baseman. He's really shown no sign even in the minors that he can be, and unless his offense improves, he's not a good DH either. If he treads water for 2 years, he's still likely to have value because people like to see long home runs. Dozier proved this year that long home runs aren't that important.

Let Gibson go at mid-season if he doesn't show consistency. He won't. The Twins have starter prospects in the minors. Let them pitch.

Absolutely keep Ervin Santana. Why the Twins would consider trading their only starter makes no sense.

Hopefully, they will just let Berrios pitch next year. I like Bert as a broadcaster, but he's doesn't need to be telling Berrios how far his hand should go behind his back. Berrios shows every sign of a kid that has so many people giving him advice, that he can't tie his shoes any more. Maybe start in AAA to recover. I just hope they haven't totally screwed him.

Neil Allen. Gone.

Who knows with Mauer. He's a good fielder, but his bat stinks for 1B. Doesn't seem to be a bench presence. He's also not a DH. If Vargas hits like he did when he came back up, he should be 1B. Let Mauer sign autographs, or just acknowledge that the money is gone and let him go.

Rosario is through their sophomore season. I see him providing more than Kepler next year. Danny Santana, not so much.

Catchers? Who knows. Murphy hit a bit when he came back up, but he's not good defensively. Get a catcher that's really good with pitchers, even if he hits 180.

Relievers? Instead of spending a ton on a reliever, I'd rather add that to the money that they'd be willing to pay a good starter. Another good starter might eliminate a reliever anyway.

There, I've solved all their problems. World series next year after all.

WIN TWINS!

HitInAPinch · November 8, 2016

Thanks for the write-up, Cody.

My thoughts are:

Trevor May will be in the starting rotation. Back issues are causing too much stress when a reliever. Actually, I'd try to trade him, if possible at this point.

Plouffe is nothing more than a maybe. Maybe at a really low price, maybe as a bench player, etc. I firmly believe Plouffe will find a better job elsewhere.

No to Drew (promote from within), a maybe or "what the heck..." on Avila.

Matz for Dozier in some kinda trade? I don't actually know who is playing 2B for the Mets, and what I've seen on their 25 roster doesn't mean much to me. I'd really like to see something like this play out.

Mike Sixel · November 8, 2016

Keep Dozier unless someone really, really wants him. If the rationalization is that he won't be around for a championship, you could say exactly the same thing for any pitcher that you'd trade him for. Unless they can get a legitimate #2 + good prospects or #1 starter keep him. He is worth that much.
.......

WIN TWINS!

Welcome to the site. Let's just say we don't agree on Sano being a good hitter....

jeffn48 · November 8, 2016

Plouffe at $9m might seem like a lot, but he was worth ~3 wins in both 2014 and 2015. That's worth well over $9m on the open market and a contender would likely give up something of value to acquire that. Factor in deadline premiums, and it's possible the return could be worth well over $9m.

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

Hitting prospects ranked 75-100 have an approx surplus value of $20.6m and pitchers 75-100 are worth $15.6m and those values are likely to go up next year.

At $6m (we'd actually pay him less than $9m because it wouldn't be for a full season - so let's say $6m), return on him wouldn't really need to be all that great at all in order to justify keeping him.

And if he continues to be replacement level, where else is that money going to be spent?

EDIT:

Look at it this way... if Plouffe was a free agent right now, would a 1 year $9m contract really be a bad thing? I would be in favor of signing as many of these types of guys as possible. The risk is minimal, and you can try move them for ANYTHING you can get. You definitely don't let them block anyone, but taking these guys and flipping them for prospects is a decent strategy.

Taildragger8791 · November 8, 2016

Welcome to the site. Let's just say we don't agree on Sano being a good hitter....

I'm struggling to get a feel on what Sano is going ultimately to be as a hitter. His basic slash line looks alright at a glance for a run-producing power hitter, but I came away from last season with the feeling that while he had some big hits he also had way too many at-bats where he came up short or was non-competitive. Particularly in key situations. That's just going off my general impression I remember from the season, however. Looking at his splits might explain where that feeling came from: after the all-star break he only hit .228/.286/.452/.738, while before the all-star break he hit .243/.350/.472/.823. The weak finish to the year is probably weighing down the impression I took away.

The other thing that sticks out is that when he's behind in the count he's struggled mightily. I'm sure most people on here remember later in the season when the analysis came out that he does most of his damage after working his way ahead in the count or to a full count. What I see is that his damage came on the first pitch or when he gets to start out ahead in the count. If he starts out behind or gets 2 strikes his numbers fall way off, particularly in the power department. In 2016 he hit .172/.235/.323/.558 after 0-1, hit .185/.185/.296/.481 when behind in general, hit .219/.223/.439/.662 when even, and with two strikes he hit .123/.210/.230/.440.

One more thing I thought was interesting. I seem to remember Sano having trouble with high heat last year, and swinging through those pitches often. BBREF has a split for power pitchers and finesse pitchers, and here were his stats with regards to that:

Power: .168/.248/.267/.515

Avg: .232/.325/.465/.790

Finesse: .285/.359/.589/.948

Perhaps the heat is what he's struggling with after all? If he can learn to recognize pitches faster or catch up to the faster pitches he could break out in a big way. But until he closes that hole in his swing good pitchers with high heat will continue to minimize him.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Taildragger8791

TheLeviathan · November 8, 2016

Thanks for doing these, I'd love to do one (I did last season) but with so much hinging on trades that need to happen I don't even know where to begin. Trade speculation is fun, but it's also incredibly difficult to pin down.

Plouffe, Santana, and Dozier need to be traded. Two of those three can net good to great value IMO. The other just needs to be gone.

nicksaviking · November 8, 2016

There, I've solved all their problems. World series next year after all.

WIN TWINS!

Welcome to the site.

I also don't agree on Sano and I don't agree that we know if he has an attitude problem, I've never seen anything to indicate he does.

I also don't see the World Series next year so I have no problem shipping off Santana at an inflated price.

bcs4 · November 8, 2016

Plouffe, Santana, and Dozier need to be traded. Two of those three can net good to great value IMO. The other just needs to be gone.

Not asking for names, but what would you expect to get for Santana and Dozier?

nicksaviking · November 8, 2016

Here's the rundown of my 25-man roster. Feel free discuss my plan in the comments section.

Click here to view the article

If I'm a new GM, the only way I keep Plouffe is if I know for a fact that the field manager will make him a bench/utility player if that's what I say he needs to be. If I think for a minute that the manager may not be able to help himself and will give the veteran 500+ PA and start the majority of games at 3B, I'm taking that temptation away from him. As a new GM, I need time to see various combinations of Sano/Polanco/Escobar on the left side of the field to make some future decisions.

Drew as well in this scenario I guess. I wouldn't want both Drew and Plouffe I don't think.

Mike Sixel · November 8, 2016

Plouffe at $9m might seem like a lot, but he was worth ~3 wins in both 2014 and 2015. That's worth well over $9m on the open market and a contender would likely give up something of value to acquire that. Factor in deadline premiums, and it's possible the return could be worth well over $9m.

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

Hitting prospects ranked 75-100 have an approx surplus value of $20.6m and pitchers 75-100 are worth $15.6m and those values are likely to go up next year.

At $6m (we'd actually pay him less than $9m because it wouldn't be for a full season - so let's say $6m), return on him wouldn't really need to be all that great at all in order to justify keeping him.

And if he continues to be replacement level, where else is that money going to be spent?

EDIT:

Look at it this way... if Plouffe was a free agent right now, would a 1 year $9m contract really be a bad thing? I would be in favor of signing as many of these types of guys as possible. The risk is minimal, and you can try move them for ANYTHING you can get. You definitely don't let them block anyone, but taking these guys and flipping them for prospects is a decent strategy.

Except you aren't making the decision w/o context.....

What do you do with Sano if you sign Plouffe, or Mauer, or Park or Vargas or Palka or ABWIII?

If you are giving up on Sano as a 3B, where does he play? DH? Then what do you do with Park and Vargas? 1B? When would Park or Vargas play, and how much does Mauer play/dh?

Vote for Gardy · November 8, 2016

I'm thinking Hughes as the number 2 starter provided he's back to form but either way is getting alot of money to not start. It all depends on what happens in the offseason.How about Dozier and a midlevel prospect for Chris Sale unless trading in Division is off limits. I'm ready to move on from Gibson. He's had three years to prove himself and one out of every five starts being quality ones is not acceptable. I also wouldn't mind seeing Murphy and Centeno get a chance to prove they can handle the job before spending alot of money on temporary until Garver is ready.

Mike Sixel · November 8, 2016

I'm thinking Hughes as the number 2 starter provided he's back to form but either way is getting alot of money to not start. It all depends on what happens in the offseason.How about Dozier and a midlevel prospect for Chris Sale unless trading in Division is off limits. I'm ready to move on from Gibson. He's had three years to prove himself and one out of every five starts being quality ones is not acceptable. I also wouldn't mind seeing Murphy and Centeno get a chance to prove they can handle the job before spending alot of money on temporary until Garver is ready.

Welcome to the site!

Centeno is a terrible defensive catcher, and if Hughes pitches at all next year, I will be surprised.

Finally, no way Dozier and a mid level prospect return Sale. If the Sox trade Sale, they are rebuilding.....not getting an older 2B.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Mike Sixel

TheLeviathan · November 8, 2016

Not asking for names, but what would you expect to get for Santana and Dozier?

I think Santana can net a really solid AA player that is in the 40-70 range for Top 100 prospects. Something like that. His contract and performance in this offseason should make him a very attractive asset.

I think Dozier can land you a near ready or ready young arm and 1-2 other pieces in the lower levels with upside.

Brandon Warne · November 9, 2016

To be fair, Brandon Warne is kind of dumb imo

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