Chris Paddack Agrees to Contract Extension with the Minnesota Twins

Highest dollar long-term deal Falvey has ever given a pitcher

11 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I feel bad being so frank, but Randy Dobnak was less much talented and had no upside. 

More than a little disrespect from a TD mod???  "Had no upside"????  

From Baseball Reference:  He impressed in spring training in 2019 and started a dizzying ride to the majors, first posting a minute 0.40 ERA in 4 starts for the Fort Myers Miracle in the Florida State League, followed by going 4-2, 2.57 in 11 games in AA with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, and then 5-2, 2.15 in 9 games for the Rochester Red Wings in the International League. His record between the three stops was 12-4, 2.07 with a 109/28 K/W ratio. The Twins, who were leading the AL Central division largely on the strength of their bats at that point, decided to ignore his less than stellar pedigree and give him a shot, since no one at any level had been able to figure out his pitches until then. In 9 games for the Twins, including 5 starts, he went 2-1, 1.59, and continued his mastery of the strike zone, with 23 strikeouts and 5 walks in 28 1/3 innings.

I recall he added a pitch in ST in '20 or '21 striking out nearly a batter per inning.  I think it was a "splinker", but not sure.  I also suspect it responsible for the hand problems he has suffered.  I hope to have the opportunity to ask him in a month.  He's always been a class act, accessible and fan-friendly.  He most certainly has pitching upside and can contribute to the Twins at the MLB level again.

Also..... Mark's article reports Paddock "appeared to have worked in an adequate slider to pair with his fastball and changeup" upon joining the Twins.  Seems "adding new pitches" comes with a risk. 

40 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think you forget how many upper level players are signed or traded for that produce nothing.  We have a couple on our own roster.  Remember when people were really upset we did not get Bumgardner.   Patrick Corbin is a bust.  Chris Sale has not produced much since being extended.  Johnny Cueto did very little 5 of his 6 year contract.  Kluber got injured when  when he went to Texas.  He produced nothing and they gave up Clause in that trade.  Clevinger went to SanDiego.  Same story and they gave up Quantrill, Naylor and Miller for Clevinger.  Kuechel was a bust.  David Price was not much either.  There are plenty of other examples.  Davis / Pujlos / Elsbury, etc.

This type of deal is exactly how a team with $300M in revenue competes with teams generating 50 to 100% more revenue.  Obviously, if you have an extra $150M on payroll, you don't need to make these deals but we are not in that boat.

So it is better to throw money at injured players that you may never get a return from verses taking a chance on a healthy player. How is wasted money helping you compete? How is the player sitting on IR helping you win. How is hoping when they return from their injury they will be healthy enough to make a difference? The Twins will have Paddack for 4 seasons and he might be able to play 2? Maybe? In what capacity? He could very well be even less effective than any of the guys you mentioned above and that probablility is high considering he is coming off a 2nd TJ surgery. Let's face the truth, this FO has NO concern over injured players. The current lineup and pitching staff has plenty of them and last season it reared it's ugly head. Why should anyone believe it will all of the sudden just go away especially when they sign or trade for more injured players at will. Wasting money does NOT help you compete especially when your revenue is less than other clubs. 

I think the thing that irritates about Dobnak is that the FO so seldom makes these contracts, and this one went south. If they had made a dozen of these and one went bad, it would be cost of doing business.

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How does that work? Would love to hear how a team with $270M in revenue can spend as much as a team with $600M+ in revenue.  Please enlighten us?

That's easy. Follow the Manchester City model: Get bought out by a sports-mad sheikh who uses every trick in the book to plow hundreds of millions of dollars into the club (sponsorships, overpriced luxury box subscriptions, even buying the stadium from the club). And that's in English football where there are (ineffective) "financial fair-play" restrictions that attempt to punish clubs that have expenses far in excess of revenues. 

If the Twins offered it, it tells me a couple things,  this new surgery method is looking pretty good and they are confident in it.  2.  They like Paddacks talent.  I actually thought his fastball primarily sitting at around 93  was lower than what I was expecting from him in the early spring.  Maybe that increases a tad after the surgery.  I think the Twins were also able to get a little more consistency to make him a better pitcher in the few starts we saw him than when he was with the Padres.  I have a feeling people are going to be pretty happy about that trade at the end of the day.  

Maeda's injury recovery was starting to run long last year and by the time he could possibly have helped in the pen, everyone else had joined him on the injured list. Hopefully later this year if Paddock's recovery makes him ready earlier, the team will find(force?) a spot on the roster to include in a playoff run. Hoping he will be a second or very good 3rd in the rotation next year.

Love this deal.  Recall the Twins playing San Diego several years ago when I believe this kid was pitching.  Recall thinking, why the heck can't the Twins have a young stud like this.

Yes, its possible his best days are behind him.  But with a new elbow, its also possible he can again be that stud he was as a rookie.  I understand there are some incentives in the deal, but should he get even close to what he was this is huge.

Now get at least one of Mahle, Maeda, or Gray extended along with our batting champ and all will be good in Twins Country.

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This type of deal is exactly how a team with $300M in revenue competes with teams generating 50 to 100% more revenue. 

.... and making a few trades for pitchers who have tremendous upside with years of control still left. So, say add Edward Cabrera. Man, I'm beating the drum for him. I hope he actually proves his worth.

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Good deal!

Makes sense if the elbow is fixed - work on mixing the 3rd pitch during back half of ‘23 and be ready for a promising ‘24.

3 hours ago, gman said:

Maeda's injury recovery was starting to run long last year and by the time he could possibly have helped in the pen, everyone else had joined him on the injured list. Hopefully later this year if Paddock's recovery makes him ready earlier, the team will find(force?) a spot on the roster to include in a playoff run. Hoping he will be a second or very good 3rd in the rotation next year.

I’d be cool with a solid/consistent #5. We’ll have Ryan. Assumed we’ll have Varland or SWR. Hopefully, we’ll have an acquired by trade starter. Last, we extend Mahle or Gray.

Semantics maybe, we’ll be happy if he’s succeeding as a starter!

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

.... and making a few trades for pitchers who have tremendous upside with years of control still left. So, say add Edward Cabrera. Man, I'm beating the drum for him. I hope he actually proves his worth.

I am trying to think of example where a pitcher that looked as good as Cabrera did in his first year got traded.  He might have done too much to establish himself in terms of the Marlins letting him go unless the return is ridiculous.   We would burn down Target Center if the twins traded away that kind of player, right?   I just don't see him being traded unless the cost really hurts.

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am trying to think of example where a pitcher that looked as good as Cabrera did in his first year got traded.  He might have done too much to establish himself in terms of the Marlins letting him go unless the return is ridiculous.   We would burn down Target Center if the twins traded away that kind of player, right?   I just don't see him being traded unless the cost really hurts.

Sadly, I have thought that as well. However, when you consider that the Marlins are stiffs at the plate and can trot out Alcantara, Luzardo, Lopez, and Rogers ahead of Cabrera and that they also have Braxton, Fulton, and Perez as ready prospects plus have signed Cueto to pitch, it may indeed be possible. Arraez, Larnach, and Martin or Gordon or Kepler would sure help Miami.

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am trying to think of example where a pitcher that looked as good as Cabrera did in his first year got traded.  He might have done too much to establish himself in terms of the Marlins letting him go unless the return is ridiculous.   We would burn down Target Center if the twins traded away that kind of player, right?   I just don't see him being traded unless the cost really hurts.

Matt Garza.  Let's give them our Delmon Young.

While NOTHING is guaranteed, I've stated more than a few times that the "forgotten" Paddack might have us screaming for an extension come some point in 2024. The youth and talent is there. The early results, SSS given in 2022 with the Twins, seem to indicate the FO wasn't exactly stupid in their desire to add him. They've liked him for a while. I just didn't think they would do an extension this early. But in the long run, the $ is virtually negligible if they're wrong. And if they are right, they will have an arm that will "hopefully" toss a few IP at the end of 2023 to shake off rust. And again, if right, he might just be a mainstay in 2024, possibly ramping up and getting better and better. And also be locked up for 2025. 

I 100% believe the Twins will lock up at least 1 of Gray or Mahle for 2024 and beyond. My bet is Mahle, who I'm betting only had a "tired" arm from trying to do too much after a weird offseason, as he's stated himself. But the Paddack deal is "cheap" by ML standards for a solid/quality SP. 

3 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I 100% believe the Twins will lock up at least 1 of Gray or Mahle for 2024 and beyond.

What would the Twins offer? They do not sign pitchers to long term contracts thus far for significant money. Neither is worth $20 million per year, thus it is difficult to envision the Twins going that route. Maybe 3/$45 if one or the other has a good year? It could happen but I don't see it, which is not to say I'm against signing free agent pitchers.

Another possible plus to this deal is if Paddack struggles to return to form or the 3rd pitch doesn't turn into an actual weapon he is a pretty good case of move him to the pen.

Maximize his two pitch mix, increase velocity and break with extra effort, reduce injury risk by reducing work load.  Its not the path he, or the Twins wants, but it could be a viable plan B if needed.

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

What would the Twins offer? They do not sign pitchers to long term contracts thus far for significant money. Neither is worth $20 million per year, thus it is difficult to envision the Twins going that route. Maybe 3/$45 if one or the other has a good year? It could happen but I don't see it, which is not to say I'm against signing free agent pitchers.

IDK if they will sign a front of the rotation free agent.  However, "thus far" we had never signed a $200M+ free agent like Correa either.  We have not been in a position with this much young talent, especially pitching in a very long time.  That has a dramatic impact on what they can afford to do.  They had to spread out the money in the past.  That simply is not the case presently and going forward.  Next year, the payroll is around $92M, assuming one of Polanco or Arreaz and Kepler are gone.  They need to retain some payroll capacity so that they can keep the team together but that would not prohibit them from signing a significant free agent SP.  They could spend $30M on a pitcher and be $20M+ under the 2023 payroll.

On 1/14/2023 at 6:22 AM, Major League Ready said:

Knock on wood but it should be a longtime before the Twins need to resort to another Matt Shoemaker / JA Happ type of signing.  Yes, Mahle/Gray/Maeda will be free agents next year.   However, Ryan/Paddack/Ober/SWR and Varland give us 5 very low cost starters.  They will have plenty of money to extend Mahle or sign someone at least as good.  That gives us 6 deep, maybe 7 if Dobnak is serviceable and by then one of two of Canterino/Festa/Raya/Prielipp should be ready especially later in the 2024 season if (when) we have injuries..

I sure hope no more shoemaker, Happ type signings happen.  Maybe we sign the top rated international pitcher on monday so he gets in the pipeline and available 3-4 years out. The FO can also supplement the SPers with a rental at the trading deadline. They better also draft nothing but pitchers and up the middle talent. They can always be spread out to other positions. Looking at our minor leagues, we need pitching depth and development.