Carlos Correa: Poking Holes in the Opting-Out Theory Opinion Piece

The Minnesota Twins shocked the MLB world on March 22, 2022, when they picked up the free agent after the Houston Astros did not pick him back up. 

Correa is undoubtedly one of the best shortstops in the league. His quick reactions to plays and acrobatic moves with put-outs and assists certainly have helped the Twins defensively this season. On the days that Correa isn't on the lineup, Twins fans become irrationally upset. Some, because they have "paid to see the all-star in the lineup" and others because "we paid him to play here" Whatever the reason that fans are clamoring to see Correa in the lineup, it's a positive thing for the club. The fans enjoy having him here, and from what Correa portrays, he also enjoys being here. 

During his initial game back with the Houston Astros on August 23rd, when asked if he would be coming back to the Astros, he didn't say, "we are talking about the post-season", or "I am open to anywhere", or anything else he said, again, He "Can see playing for the Twins for a long time". That doesn't sound like someone who will opt-out.

In an article with Joseph Zucker from Bleacher Report, Correa told reporters that he is looking to "I want to build a championship culture in this organization," Correa said, per the Associated Press Jake Seiner. By all accounts, Correa shows, says, and promotes wanting to stay a part of the club in Minnesota. 

Since that statement in early March, Correa suffered initially thought to be a fractured finger after getting hit-by-pitch (twice) on May 6 against the Orioles. He spent a stint on the IL, and later that month, he would also spend time out on the COVID IL. The all-star had a rough month of May, and his return was also heavily catered as he made random appearances in the infield and took turns in the lineup as the designated hitter. 

When he is not in the starting lineup, Correa is in the dugout, doing his best to help lead the team, cheering on other players' home runs and clutch plays. He also spends time sharing his knowledge of the defense and weighs in on front office thoughts regarding the status of players, like Jose Miranda, with whom he has a close bond. The Twins brought him in to be a teacher, to Royce Lewis, who has spent a majority of his time on the IL, shortening his time with Correa and the ability to have that time to learn. His knowledge of the game is excellent, but right now, at least at the plate, his game is not impressive, consistent, but not impressive. 

In May 2022, shortly after the acquisition, Buster Olney stated that not only would Correa leave IF he were to remain healthy and finish in "an impressive fashion". Looking back over Buster's statement, Correa would likely opt out of his contract on two conditions: his health and his production, and both took a hit this season. While his health is undoubtedly resolving, his production is lacking at least at the plate. 

Correa's month of August has been one of the quietest we have seen out of the shortstop, even after coming back from injury and illness earlier in June. His numbers aren't showing how much he is currently struggling at the plate. His valuation is at $30.5 but he isn’t hitting that value right now.  He is hitting .268/.344/.427 for the season, but in the 18 games in August thus far, he's recorded only eight runs, 16 hits, and three RBIs in 62 at-bats. His eight earned runs have come heavily from his 13 walks this month, he gets on base, but rarely from a hit. 

It is August, it's hot, and these are the "Dog Days of Summer." Still, for a player looking to "opt-out," with Onley's statement of "impressive finish," there are other free agents out there making more impressive finishes than who would potentially pick up before Correa. 

Players like Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner were in the All-Star game this season and are having remarkable seasons both in numbers in the eye test. All three players' numbers exceed Correa's. Looking at Correa's season and his valuation from Fangraphs ($35.1 million), will he still be worth that to another team at the end of the season? 

There is a fair argument that Xander Bogaerts (.299/.370/.441) has had struggles during the season. His overall season product has him valued at $20 million, according to Fangraphs, and his offensive and defense production shows that he is worth that or possibly more. Bogaerts is undoubtedly putting on a show for the potential of getting more money once the season is over.  

The Braves are already in talks with Swanson after a rough breakup with Freddie Freeman; whether he stays will depend on what the Braves are willing to offer him to stay. Swanson (.292/.397/.453) is tearing up the field offensively and defensively this season and far outplays his $10mil valuation. Another one of the All-Stars this season, he comes second in stolen bases (16) behind Trea Turner, who has 20 for the season. Swanson is responsible for 68 runs batted in and an integral part of the Braves' run towards another potential World Series. The Braves may have an uphill battle with other teams willing to offer more money for Swanson. With signing Michael Harris to an eight-year contract extension worth at least $72 million, they may be willing to part with the shortstop making him one of the most sought after shortstops in the off-season. 

Another shortstop driving up the numbers will be Trea Turner, who has had a hit virtually every time he is at the plate. Rumors of the Dodgers locking him in early will only drive up the market for the other sought-after players. There is a rumor that Dansby may have sparked an organizational 'vision' for the Cubs to bring him on. Dansby doesn't want to sit still as his career rockets, and he considers what the future of the team he is on looks like. "You need to know how the next few years look and how that pertains to your family and your career," he added, "it's definitely a factor in picking a team." 

So with other shortstops being shopped and shopping around as well, while the speculation of Carlos Correa opting out has been spreading like wild fire, if my optics are correct, the market will not be demanding a Correa. They will instead be looking at a Swanson, Bogaerts, or Turner. Correa insists that he loves Minnesota, the culture, the team, and being a leader. He wants to stay and make a winning culture, so if he leaves, how would he provide that winning culture in just one season when he is producing less than the rookies this season? What motivation would another team have to pick him up if he's not producing and he has stated his loyalty to the Twins? 

That's why this writer thinks Carlos Correa will not opt-out. Instead, Scott Boras will fight for more money or a more extended contract with the Twins.

Do you truly believe that Correa will opt out? If Royce Lewis isn't ready, or can't play who do you see coming into the shortstop position?