Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier

 

Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players.

 

Yep.  There is a reason the Dodgers have so much talent in the minors.  They paid for enough talent in the majors to allow the minor league players to develop.  You have to replenish the system at both ends.

 

I would argue that every pitcher is potentially a Tommy John in the making. Where did you read that Alvarez's delivery is "mildly violent"? I've read that he is very smooth for a guy who throws 100+.

 

Grant Jones wrote that.  He scouted Alvarez twice last year.  Jones is a younger scout but has already held jobs with the Mets and Brewers along with working with college and minor league teams. 

 

That's right.  But the Twins have a much bigger hole at SP than they do at 2B.  After Dozier goes, Polanco slides into his spot.  Dozier is the only person the team has that can help fix their pitching problem.

Not so. We can package several of our young starting pitchers at AA to get a proven starting pitcher. Also, the free agent starting piching market is weak, but there are several who have a much better chance to help the team next season than Berrios, or heaven forbid Gonsalves. We have money to spend, and the most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is young starting pitching.

 

The question is, is our new management team's marching orders to win ASAP, or are we embarking on a new 5 year plan.

 

I think we all want to believe you, but your source was confident enough to put a 24 hour window on things and we're well past that.  Perhaps your source isn't as close to the talks as they think.  We've reached the point where skepticism is warranted.

There will be an announcement by Monday Noon--or this rumor is "busted". There won't be a Dodgers-Twins trade including Dozier.

 

You mean the same guys you just trashed?  I think I looked like this reading that post:

 

 

Just slightly more handsome of course.

Where did I trash Stewart, Jay, Rosario, or Jorge? 

 

5 year plan? How is trading Dozier for near ready players a 5 year plan?

Specifically, which near ready players are you speaking of? All I've seen mentioned is pie in the sky. I do find it refreshing, that our prolific posters have suddenly and unexpectedly seem to have embraced patience.

Edited December 28, 2016 by howieramone2

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

Hey Dave, when you say "DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table"  is that individually [either, or] or both for Dozier?

 

Just want to clarify....    

Edited December 28, 2016 by HitInAPinch

The Twins have reason to leak trade inquiries (in spite of their seriousness).  And the Cards have reasons to publicly deny their pursuit (in spite of their seriousness). 

 

Not so. We can package several of our young starting pitchers at AA to get a proven starting pitcher.

 

Which would make the problem worse.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VIpgjyzgxzc

Looks like Alvarez is playing long toss. Nothing about that delivery screams concern or violent.

 

I have seen a different video of him pitching.  His delivery seems fine, it's what his arm does after he releases the ball that seems like he could damage something.  The weirdness is after he releases the ball.  You can't see it in this particular video. 

Man, the inferiority complex is really rearing its head again. Minnesota: where the players are average (and bound to regress) and the management is a bunch of clumsy rubes.

 

If Dozier is our only hope for ever possibly finding competitive pitching, I'm glad management is trying to maximize their "asset."

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

It would be likely the only way they are both on the table would be like Cagney and Hope

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOoNOs8Ql28

Edited December 31, 2016 by The Wise One

Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players.

 

It might sound promising to rattle off a long list of names but that list gets thin in a hurry when you really evaluate it. Santana is in his mid-30's and is the best pitcher in that group, he's not going to be here for much longer. Gibson could pitch himself out of a job this year. Hughes is a lottery ticket to ever start effectively again. May and Duffey are running out of time to establish themselves in the rotation and may be permanently bound for the bullpen. Berrios has a long ways to go and his talent will get him a lot of time to work through his struggles, but you can't count on his future right now. Mejia isn't a game changer. That leaves a lot of potential openings to rotate prospects through in a year or two. Furthermore, those prospects have ceilings as 4's and borderline 3's in some cases, with a few that could fall back to being solid relievers, but the failure rate is so high that I'm not worried about blocking someone if it means acquiring a solid #3 or better pitcher. The truly good players will always separate themselves and force their way onto the roster.

I think you and I are actually in agreement. Specifically if the Twins can get someone that is a mid-rotation starter with a good chance to be more of course they should make that trade. My point was I have no interest in bringing in MLB ready pitchers whose upside is a mid-rotation starter just because they are ready now (or soon). Pitchers rarely reach their upside and when they don't having another 4/5 does absolutely nothing to help the Twins towards contention.

But they will have 6 years to make those other big changes with DeLeon and company, versus only 2 years with Dozier.

  

That's right.  But the Twins have a much bigger hole at SP than they do at 2B.  After Dozier goes, Polanco slides into his spot.  Dozier is the only person the team has that can help fix their pitching problem.

 

I'm not arguing that Dozier shouldn't be traded. I'm pushing back on the perception that the Twins future hinges on this trade being made immediately or they are doomed because his value will fall. Or the idea that the Twins pitching will be solved if only they can get an ace out of this deal.

 

Regardless of what happens with this trade, the future of the Twins rotation hinges on the prospects already within the Twins system. They are going to fix this rotation. Even if De Leon becomes an Ace he is still just the cherry on the top.

I would call the Ace the sundae not the cherry.  What we've been missing for the longest time it top end pitching.  Having one isn't just a bonus, it's an enormous difference maker.

So is Mike Trout but not even he can carry a team to the playoffs. An Ace might bring 3 extra wins a year more than a back of the rotation pitcher. The Twins need 30. While an Ace would be great and everyone wants one the Twins future hinges on the young pitchers and hitters already in the organization.

 

Hyping the Dozier trade up by saying the Twins future depends on it forces a scenario where they are desperate, unable to walk away and as a result accept a lesser return because they absolutely must trade him.

 

To be clear I think they should trade him but if the return isn't adequate then keep him and live to play another day. That is not failure.