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Twins relief pitchers averaged 3.267 outs per appearance in 2017, which was actually slightly above league average. There seems to be a perception that the game has become more specialized of late, but even back in 1997 the average relief appearance was only 3.5 outs. That's not a huge difference, but starting pitching has surely changed greatly over that time, right?
Yes, but maybe not as much as you would have guessed. Last season, starting pitchers averaged 5.5 innings, or 16.5 outs. Back in 1997, they averaged 6.0 innings, or 18 outs. By using those figures, the average number of pitchers needed to get 27 outs as risen from 3.57 in 1997 to 4.28 last season. Over that same stretch, the average time of game has increased 12 minutes, from 2:56 to 3:08.
The more pitchers/pitching changes needed, the longer the games are going to take. Makes sense. But relief pitchers can throw more. We know this. Just look at how they’re used in the minor leagues.
Trevor Hildenberger 2017
Outs per appearance
Twins 3.42
Rochester 4.38
Appearances with more than three outs
Twins 15/37 (40.5 percent)
Rochester 11/21 (52.4 percent)
Appearances with six outs or more
Twins 6/37 (16.2 percent)
Rochester 9/21 (42.9 percent)
Alan Busenitz 2017
Outs per appearance
Twins 3.39
Rochester 4.41
Appearances with more than three outs
Twins 9/28 (32.1 percent)
Rochester 13/24 (54.1 percent)
Appearances with six outs or more
Twins 5/28 (17.9 percent)
Rochester 8/24 (33.3 percent)
Those are big differences, right? But the crazy thing is Hildy and Booze weren’t even really stretched that far on the farm compared to some other minor leaguers. Logan Lombana (5.47) and Michael Theofanopoulos (5.43) both averaged more than five outs per game out of the bullpen. Just trailing them were Todd Van Steensel (4.89), Luke Bard at (4.78), Sam Clay (4.70) and Andrew Vasquez (4.70).
Bullpen specialization is a very rare thing in the minor leagues.
The closest thing the Twins had to a long man over the course of the season was Tyler Duffey. He recorded more than three outs in 25 of his appearances, which was tied for the sixth-most in baseball. Still, even Duffey only averaged 3.80 outs per appearance. The MLB leader in outs per games in relief was Yusmeiro Petit at 4.4.
There are certainly some strategic reasons why relief appearances are shortened in the major leagues, but there also seem to be a lot of games in which MLB managers burn through an unnecessary number of bullpen arms. The Twins only played 33 one-run games last season, and here are some numbers that suggest a lot of their games are in hand to some degree even after just four innings:
2017 Minnesota Twins
Leading entering the fifth inning: 60-11 (.845)
Tied entering the fifth inning: 13-12 (.520)
Trailing entering the fifth inning: 12-54 (.182)
Maybe those numbers are so extreme exactly because of the way bullpens are currently used, I don’t know. But it seems the question for managers becomes this: Would you rather let one of your relievers record six outs and not be able to use him for a few days, or use two different pitchers for an inning each and rest easy knowing at most they’ll just need one night off?
If the pace doesn't pick up, it's entirely possible the Commissioner takes aim at bullpen usage. Could he decide to enforce some kind of minimum batters faced per relief appearance? Who knows? The MLB certainly seems motivated to pick up the pace. It'll be interesting to see at what lengths they'll go to make that happen.
Related
Players’ Union Rejects Pace Of Play Proposals
Dozier Debate: Contract Extension? Pace of Play?
Twins And Losses Supershow 54 - Slow News Day (pace of play discussion begins a bit after the 13-minute mark)
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