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  • Can Extending Relief Appearances Address Baseball’s Pace of Play Concerns?


    Tom Froemming

    Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred appears to be taking a hard stance on the game’s perceived pace of play issues, and intends on introducing a 20-second pitch clock. That's worked in the minors to some degree, but there’s something else that’s separated the majors and the minors: Length of relief appearances.

    Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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    Twins relief pitchers averaged 3.267 outs per appearance in 2017, which was actually slightly above league average. There seems to be a perception that the game has become more specialized of late, but even back in 1997 the average relief appearance was only 3.5 outs. That's not a huge difference, but starting pitching has surely changed greatly over that time, right?

    Yes, but maybe not as much as you would have guessed. Last season, starting pitchers averaged 5.5 innings, or 16.5 outs. Back in 1997, they averaged 6.0 innings, or 18 outs. By using those figures, the average number of pitchers needed to get 27 outs as risen from 3.57 in 1997 to 4.28 last season. Over that same stretch, the average time of game has increased 12 minutes, from 2:56 to 3:08.

    The more pitchers/pitching changes needed, the longer the games are going to take. Makes sense. But relief pitchers can throw more. We know this. Just look at how they’re used in the minor leagues.

    Trevor Hildenberger 2017

    Outs per appearance

    Twins 3.42

    Rochester 4.38

    Appearances with more than three outs

    Twins 15/37 (40.5 percent)

    Rochester 11/21 (52.4 percent)

    Appearances with six outs or more

    Twins 6/37 (16.2 percent)

    Rochester 9/21 (42.9 percent)

    Alan Busenitz 2017

    Outs per appearance

    Twins 3.39

    Rochester 4.41

    Appearances with more than three outs

    Twins 9/28 (32.1 percent)

    Rochester 13/24 (54.1 percent)

    Appearances with six outs or more

    Twins 5/28 (17.9 percent)

    Rochester 8/24 (33.3 percent)

    Those are big differences, right? But the crazy thing is Hildy and Booze weren’t even really stretched that far on the farm compared to some other minor leaguers. Logan Lombana (5.47) and Michael Theofanopoulos (5.43) both averaged more than five outs per game out of the bullpen. Just trailing them were Todd Van Steensel (4.89), Luke Bard at (4.78), Sam Clay (4.70) and Andrew Vasquez (4.70).

    Bullpen specialization is a very rare thing in the minor leagues.

    The closest thing the Twins had to a long man over the course of the season was Tyler Duffey. He recorded more than three outs in 25 of his appearances, which was tied for the sixth-most in baseball. Still, even Duffey only averaged 3.80 outs per appearance. The MLB leader in outs per games in relief was Yusmeiro Petit at 4.4.

    There are certainly some strategic reasons why relief appearances are shortened in the major leagues, but there also seem to be a lot of games in which MLB managers burn through an unnecessary number of bullpen arms. The Twins only played 33 one-run games last season, and here are some numbers that suggest a lot of their games are in hand to some degree even after just four innings:

    2017 Minnesota Twins

    Leading entering the fifth inning: 60-11 (.845)

    Tied entering the fifth inning: 13-12 (.520)

    Trailing entering the fifth inning: 12-54 (.182)

    Maybe those numbers are so extreme exactly because of the way bullpens are currently used, I don’t know. But it seems the question for managers becomes this: Would you rather let one of your relievers record six outs and not be able to use him for a few days, or use two different pitchers for an inning each and rest easy knowing at most they’ll just need one night off?

    If the pace doesn't pick up, it's entirely possible the Commissioner takes aim at bullpen usage. Could he decide to enforce some kind of minimum batters faced per relief appearance? Who knows? The MLB certainly seems motivated to pick up the pace. It'll be interesting to see at what lengths they'll go to make that happen.

    Related

    Players’ Union Rejects Pace Of Play Proposals

    Dozier Debate: Contract Extension? Pace of Play?

    Twins And Losses Supershow 54 - Slow News Day (pace of play discussion begins a bit after the 13-minute mark)

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    I an not sure that I understand where the problem is.

    Data:   Yes games have been a bit longer than before:

     

    MLB_Game_Length_1920-2014_9_Inn_or_Less.

     

    On the other hand, there are more butts on the seats than before, even though the size of the venues decreased in the teens compared to the 90s:

     

     

     

    MLB_attendance.png

     

    If that last graph looked the other way, then would be a problem with the time of games...

     

     

    FASCINATING! 

     

    Note how the game lengths average plateaued in the 1970's & 80's only to steadily rise thereafter heading into the 2000's and modern era.  I've also noticed this in reruns of sitcoms like Seinfeld, Friends and Simpsons where they are now cutting content to squeeze in the ridiculous amount of commercials which are consuming more and more time during each program. If the trend continues in another 90 years we could have games in the 4-1/2 hour length average. Kinda like junk mail.  It seems like i keep getting more and more of it.

    Edited by laloesch
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    Is the scale of the y-axis simply off by a factor of 10X for every data point in the graph, or is there something more serious wrong? I know that teams in 2017 didn't draw 25 million, on average.

     

    I don't think that it is up to 2017.   Looks that it is a decimal point off.  800 should be 80...

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    Actually these 2 might be more relevant than attendance :

     

    MLBGrossRev1995-2014.jpg

     

     

    and

     

    http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/51d6d91aeab8ea944a000018-608-457/untitled-1-653.jpg

     

     

    So both teams and players have zero reason to complaint regarding the length of the games.

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    Actually these 2 might be more relevant than attendance :

     

    MLBGrossRev1995-2014.jpg

     

     

    and

     

    http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/51d6d91aeab8ea944a000018-608-457/untitled-1-653.jpg

     

     

    So both teams and players have zero reason to complaint regarding the length of the games.

     

    I wonder if you could make a correlation between all these charts (average player salaries, baseball revenue, average length of games) and commercial tv time during each game?  :)

    Edited by laloesch
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    I wonder if you could make a correlation between all these charts (average player salaries, baseball revenue, average length of games) and commercial tv time during each game?  :)

     

    No correlation is needed.

    The point is:

     

    a. Fans keep going to the game

    b. owners are increasing their revenues

    c. players are increasing their salaries

     

    There is no problem with the pace of the game or the length of the game other in the commissioner's head.

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    No correlation is needed.

    The point is:

     

    a. Fans keep going to the game

    b. owners are increasing their revenues

    c. players are increasing their salaries

    OK, up to here.

    There is no problem with the pace of the game or the length of the game

    But that doesn't follow. Historically, you could construct exactly the same thread of logic to explain not taking action against dangerous performance drugs, against gambling on games, against free-agent collusion, against... anything that threatens the long-term health of the game. You could make similar arguments against starting to play night games or to breaking the color line. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" is a rule of thumb, not some kind of absolute wisdom that trumps everything.

     

    Successful businesses constantly look for problems on the horizon and then take steps to combat them before they become a crisis. Arguments like your a,b,c do not hold water in and of themselves.

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    I expect that I will be taking an unpopular position - again - but I think that baseball has allowed the bullpen to own the game and I do not like it.  I like the old days when starting pitchers when as long as they had to and relief pitchers were not pampered with ninth inning only appearances. 

     

    My choice is to have the team designate 3 relief pitchers per game.  Use them as they want. But make them pitch.

     

    Being old I am not as much of a Loogy, Roogy or what ever the hell else there is.  My love of baseball was not based on trips to the mound, or one pitch relief appearances.   I liked complete games.  I love Warren Spahn, Lew Burdette... 

     

    I liked Don McMahon https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcmahdo02.shtml coming in and pitching until the other team was done.  I liked Hoyt Wilhelm throwing into the wee hours - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilheho01.shtml

    that was baseball and the games lasted 2 - 2.5 hours.  

     

    So designate three pitchers a game.  Make the damn manager sweat.  Make the game move on.  Strategy, but not boredom. 

     

    I know many of you love to see the pitching coach come out, then the catcher, then the manager.  Wow is that fun.  But not me.  

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    I expect that I will be taking an unpopular position - again - but I think that baseball has allowed the bullpen to own the game and I do not like it.  I like the old days when starting pitchers when as long as they had to and relief pitchers were not pampered with ninth inning only appearances. 

     

    My choice is to have the team designate 3 relief pitchers per game.  Use them as they want. But make them pitch.

     

    Being old I am not as much of a Loogy, Roogy or what ever the hell else there is.  My love of baseball was not based on trips to the mound, or one pitch relief appearances.   I liked complete games.  I love Warren Spahn, Lew Burdette... 

     

    I liked Don McMahon https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcmahdo02.shtml coming in and pitching until the other team was done.  I liked Hoyt Wilhelm throwing into the wee hours - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilheho01.shtml

    that was baseball and the games lasted 2 - 2.5 hours.  

     

    So designate three pitchers a game.  Make the damn manager sweat.  Make the game move on.  Strategy, but not boredom. 

     

    I know many of you love to see the pitching coach come out, then the catcher, then the manager.  Wow is that fun.  But not me.  

    you forgot the whole get off my lawn speech ;-)

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    No correlation is needed.

    The point is:

     

    a. Fans keep going to the game

    b. owners are increasing their revenues

    c. players are increasing their salaries

     

    There is no problem with the pace of the game or the length of the game other in the commissioner's head.

     

    Back in 1999 the folks at Blockbuster Video said similar stuff. 

     

    a. People keep coming in and renting Toy Story 2. 

    b. We are currently valued at 2.5 Billion

    c. This punishing our customers with late fees thing is increasing our revenues YOY.

     

    4 years later... During a meeting of the board of directors. One of the board members was suggesting that they failed to adjust to market conditions while another board member was on Wikipedia researching Chapter 11 while the Chairman was pointing at a big chart that showed a clear reversal of fortune. 

     

    ​The Rise and Fall of Blockbuster is completely unrelated to the future of baseball. Blockbuster ripped me off once and I have never forgiven them so I like pointing out how stupid they were when context allows. 

     

     

     

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    Everything evolves. Baseball is no different. Some of the changes being suggested will barely be noticeable and not even be worth talking about after a couple years of implementation.

     

    I, personally, dont care about pace of play issues, but if making a few small changes speeds it up a tad and brings more fans to the game, I am all for it.

     

    Another thing that might bring more people to the game is marketing their young talent. Basdeball is horrible at this on the national level.

    Edited by jimmer
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    Another thing that might bring more people to the game is marketing their young talent. Basdeball is horrible at this on the national level.

     

    I'm printing this quote on a piece of paper with the "basdeball" spelled differently.

     

    I'm then wrapping the piece of paper around a rock.

     

    Then I'm throwing the rock through the window of the MLB Offices. 

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    Still don't understand why there isn't a way to speed up pitching changes. Are the pomp and circumstance and the half-mile power-walks still necessary?

     

    Send a laser signal down to the 'pen and send the pitcher down a zipline. Or, I have some good ideas for trap doors, similar to those used by the Romans to unleash wild beasts in the Colosseum. Or, have the pitcher on the mound keep a smoke bomb in his back pocket, smash it on the ground when he's done, and the new pitcher would have instantaneously replaced the old one when the smoke clears.

    Edited by Darius
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    If they want to cut down time of games start with the time between innings. But that would cost them advertising money so they would not want to do that. On the same note, when they make a pitching change they need to speed that time up so no need for another commercial break.

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    If games are so long fans are fleeing the sport what would be the ideal length of game that brings them all back?

    2 1/2 hrs like a BB or Hockey game? How can you cut half an hour off a game? Shorten the game to 7 innings would be the easiest without a bunch of rule changes. All the other stuff just nibbles around a couple minutes here or there.

    Cut commercial time? Sure the owners and players will love making less money so what will happen ticket prices and beer goes up.

     

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    Extending the relief pitcher is only going to extend the inning for the offense in the extra AB. they get   Quality of relief pitching goes down without situational substitutions. The quality of relief pitching goes down when you think of pitching them multiple innings. Think Perkins as a starter vs a reliever.  

     

    In terms of a television game, ratings seem to fluctuate with w/l record. The concern for the team and networks is the number watching.  There is a chance that for a long time baseball has been watched in intervals, not complete games. There  wouldn't be the pressure to shorten a game if that is the viewing pattern

     

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    I like this idea a lot. You could replace those 30 seconds between innings with 10 second in-game ads while the next batter makes his way to the plate. 

      And I feel like those two moves would not affect the natural flow of the game....hitters stepping out, pitchers stepping off, etc..  Cut 25 minutes off game times would help...except for the beer vendors...lol

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    Back in 1999 the folks at Blockbuster Video said similar stuff. 

     

    a. People keep coming in and renting Toy Story 2. 

    b. We are currently valued at 2.5 Billion

    c. This punishing our customers with late fees thing is increasing our revenues YOY.

     

    4 years later... During a meeting of the board of directors. One of the board members was suggesting that they failed to adjust to market conditions while another board member was on Wikipedia researching Chapter 11 while the Chairman was pointing at a big chart that showed a clear reversal of fortune. 

     

    ​The Rise and Fall of Blockbuster is completely unrelated to the future of baseball. Blockbuster ripped me off once and I have never forgiven them so I like pointing out how stupid they were when context allows. 

     

    I think this is the point for the Commissioner and others concerned about pace of play and length of games. They're looking ahead to the next tv contract, and thinking about their ratings for playoff and world series baseball. They're thinking about how much of the revenue increase was predicated around teams forming their own tv networks or getting large deals from regional sports networks (like FSN). It's not just about attendance or participation, it's also about tv contracts and ratings. 

     

    but I think it's fair to be concerned that attendance will start to slide if games drag out longer and longer without good reason. They also don't want people bailing early. The ticket sale is huge, but if people bail after 6 innings, that's a lot of lost concession sales too. And the goodwill slides down too: when was the last time someone spoke glowingly about the game and the fan experience when they had to bail early?

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    but I think it's fair to be concerned that attendance will start to slide if games drag out longer and longer without good reason. They also don't want people bailing early. The ticket sale is huge, but if people bail after 6 innings, that's a lot of lost concession sales too. And the goodwill slides down too: when was the last time someone spoke glowingly about the game and the fan experience when they had to bail early?

    Couldn't agree more.  It's also about the experience.  Go to an NFL game, and you really see how much downtime there is.  Baseball is now like that, Between inning breaks are too long (except when you have to get rid of 6 beers), but they'll never cut commercials, soooo:

     

    I'm not in favor of rules dictating how long or short a pitcher stays in.  That fundamentally changes the game.  I am in favor of a pitch clock.  Knock 5 minutes off.  I'm in favor of limiting mound visits to 1 per pitcher (either a Catcher or a Coach), & said visitor must at least jog to mound, followed by timed visit.  knock 5 minutes off.

     

    Relief Pitcher must either sprint to mound, or be driven by big helmet golf car.  He gets 5 warm ups, then let's go.  Knock 5 minutes off. 

     

    Leaving the park at 10:30 means getting home at 11:30 (in 1st tier suburbs), asleep at 12/12:30.  My wife gets up at 5 to go to work.  Every game is a battle to keep her there until the end, and she LIKES baseball.  Something must change.  There's 162 games.  2:30 or 2::45 is long enough, but don't fundamentally change the game.

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    I'm in favor of limiting mound visits to 1 per pitcher (either a Catcher or a Coach), & said visitor must at least jog to mound, followed by timed visit.  knock 5 minutes off.

     

    Relief Pitcher must either sprint to mound, or be driven by big helmet golf car.  He gets 5 warm ups, then let's go.  Knock 5 minutes off. 

     

    Leaving the park at 10:30 means getting home at 11:30 (in 1st tier suburbs), asleep at 12/12:30.  My wife gets up at 5 to go to work.  Every game is a battle to keep her there until the end, and she LIKES baseball.  Something must change.  There's 162 games.  2:30 or 2::45 is long enough, but don't fundamentally change the game.

    I don't like the clock, but the visit limits are okay. However, if you're going to limit timeouts for the catcher to go visit the mound, then limit them for the batter as well. If the catcher can only go to the mound once per inning, then all batters should only get to call time to step out of the box once per inning. 

     

    To be more fair, I'd say one mound visit per batter, and limit it to 10 seconds, once out of the box per batter, and once off the rubber for the pitcher. 

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    I think there's something to saying a reliever must face two ore three batters. That's not unreasonable in my opinion, and I think there's a player safety case to be made there too..

     

    But yeah, like Brian said, this won't fix viewership. Pace of play is an issue, but these are bandaid fixes to a much more fundamental issue.

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