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  • Building a Perfect Twins Trade Deadline


    Cody Christie

    Over the next couple of weeks, Twins fans are going to be checking their phones and waiting for a notification. Did the club acquire a front-line starting pitcher? Could a bullpen arm or two be on the way to the Twin Cities? Even with one of baseball’s best records, Minnesota’s roster has some holes. When you look at your phone on July 31, what would be the perfect trade deadline scenario?

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    With one of the baseball’s best offenses, it makes sense for the Twins to focus on adding pitching before the deadline. Minnesota’s most glaring need is the bullpen. Taylor Rogers might be the AL’s most valuable reliever, but he won’t be able to pitch every postseason inning. Ryne Harper, Tyler Duffey and Zach Littell have been more than serviceable, but they might be better suited for pitching the middle innings.

    Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi have been leading the pitching staff, while the rest of the rotation has fit into their roles nicely. Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez have had some up and down moments throughout the year. Michael Pineda has provided an upgrade over recent fifth starters. Would you trust one of these pitchers to face the Yankees or Astros line-up in the ALDS?

    Ideally, the Twins would add two relief arms and a starter before the calendar turns to August.

    Bullpen

    In a perfect world, the Twins would be able to add both a right- and left-handed reliever to assist Rogers in his late inning role. There are some internal options for the Twins including two left-handed pitchers that are already on the 40-man roster. Both players would be unknowns in a relief role, so it makes sense to find someone with some experience if the price in prospects isn’t too steep.

    When it comes to left-handed relievers, Will Smith is the name on everyone’s list. He is currently being used as the Giants closer, but his cost might be slightly lower since he is a free agent after the season. John projected a package of Kohl Stewart and Edwar Colina for Smith. If that’s the deal on the table, I pull the trigger.

    For Ron Gardenhire and the Tigers, there have been few bright spots this year. However, Shane Greene has been one of the team’s best players. In 2018, he struggled in his first chance being the full-time closer. He posted a 5.12 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP with a 65 to 19 strikeout to walk ratio. For how bad he was last season, he has done a complete 180 this year. He has a microscopic 1.06 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP with 35 strikeouts and 10 walks. He’s also under team control through 2020.

    Starting Pitching

    There’s been lots of talk about Madison Bumgarner since he is a pending free agent and the Giants are likely to be sellers. One must wonder what version of Madison Bumgarner a club would receive in a trade. He’s been a World Series hero but that was half a decade ago. This season he has posted a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP to go along with 121 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings. Another thing to consider is Bumgarner has a lot of miles on his arm with 1755 big league innings over the last 11 seasons.

    Toronto’s Marcus Stroman is another potential trade target and he is younger than Bumgarner. So far this season, he has a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has 88 strikeouts in 110 2/3 innings, so Bumgarner has him beat in that category. Stroman has another year of team control as the 2020 season will be his final year of arbitration eligibility.

    Both above-mentioned pitchers could help the club, but I’d rather the team target Arizona’s Zack Greinke, even if he has a no-trade clause that includes the Twins. There are a few reasons I’d rather the team go after a 35-year old pitcher with a big contract. First, it would likely take fewer high-ranking prospects to acquire Greinke because of his large contract. Greinke has been very good this year with a 2.95 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP.

    Minnesota has the financial flexibility in the years ahead to absorb the Greinke contract. Plus, three of the Twins current starters will be free agents following the World Series. Greinke could fit in at the top of the rotation with Berrios for the next handful of seasons. If he isn’t still an ace in 2021, the Twins could still fit him in some part of their rotation.

    Greinke, Smith, and Greene put the Twins in better position to win October games. Who would be part of your perfect trade deadline for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    Vazquez <—> Gordon/Larnach/Jeffers/Colina/Jax

     

    This trade would seem to fail the baseballtradevalues.com test too -- they don't list Colina, but the other 4 guys are about $15 mil short of Vasquez, and I doubt Colina makes up for all that. Subbing Duran (13) for Colina gets it pretty close.

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    Probably a universe where his value is down. I guess the question with Thor is whether or not he can rebound. Given that the Mets think they can contend next year, I doubt Thor is on the market. Wheeler should be.

    If Syndergaard's value is down that much, the Mets don't trade him.

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    Can't see Stroman going to the A's as they won't put their top prospects forward for a pitcher. Would like for us to check in on Mike Minor though!

     

    The A's have shown they can make moves like this. They can simply trade Stroman away later to get similar prospects back. They've done this before.

    However, I think the author might be smoking something. The As don't need starting pitching, they need bullpen arms. If the Twins are not smart, the As will get what the Twins are looking for.

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    The A's have shown they can make moves like this. They can simply trade Stroman away later to get similar prospects back. They've done this before.

     

    However, I think the author might be smoking something. The As don't need starting pitching, they need bullpen arms. If the Twins are not smart, the As will get what the Twins are looking for.

    The A's just traded for the shell of Homer Bailey. Montas is out, Manaea and Luzardo are still out. They may need relievers too, but they could also use starters.

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    This trade would seem to fail the baseballtradevalues.com test too -- they don't list Colina, but the other 4 guys are about $15 mil short of Vasquez, and I doubt Colina makes up for all that. Subbing Duran (13) for Colina gets it pretty close.

    While the concept of that website may be well thought out, I really question it’s accuracy for rating players.I mean, don’t you think Javier, Jeffers, Sands, Blankenhorn, Diaz, Maciel, Davis, Rijo, Celestino, and Jax all deserve a little higher ratings, and where’s Colina and Winder?

     

    Maybe I’m crazy, but shouldn’t Gordon, Larnach, Thorpe, Jeffers, and Jax be enough?? I get that he’s the best reliever available on the market, but it’s not like he’s a frontline starter.

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    Giving up that much for Vazquez is obviously gonna hurt, but compared to having to give up any of Lewis, AK, Graterol, Balazovoc, and Duran, I’d say it’s definitely worth it, especially if it’s gonna make us WS favorites.

    Adding Vazquez, or even Vazquez and Kennedy doesn't make the Twins WS favorites. For that to be even remotely true, you'd have to assume the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees do nothing at the deadline to goose their odds further. But, even in that unlikely scenario, it's doubtful the Twins odds would surpass the Astros, and still wouldn't approach the Dodgers.

     

    I'm not saying that means you shouldn't do anything...or that aggressiveness isn't warranted. As I mentioned, you probably need to be fairly aggressive just to maintain 'good/decent' odds. 

    Edited by jkcarew
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    While the concept of that website may be well thought out, I really question it’s accuracy for rating players.I mean, don’t you think Javier, Jeffers, Sands, Blankenhorn, Diaz, Maciel, Davis, Rijo, Celestino, and Jax all deserve a little higher ratings, and where’s Colina and Winder?

     

    Maybe I’m crazy, but shouldn’t Gordon, Larnach, Thorpe, Jeffers, and Jax be enough?? I get that he’s the best reliever available on the market, but it’s not like he’s a frontline starter.

    Anything that involves prospect values is going to be fairly subjective, and that site in particular probably isn't as responsive to recent health/performance trends (although there are limits to how much these guys values are going to shift over smaller samples too).

     

    Diaz and Blankenhorn probably deserve a boost from this season, but the other guys are far enough away, or still have enough performance questions, that I don't think these ratings are that far off.

     

    As for Vasquez, it's hard to value all those years of control. You might be right to only offer so much, but the Pirates might be right to reject it right now too -- he's controlled for so long, they can probably get a similar return a year from now if they want.

     

    Edit to add: I think the fact you can make a Vasquez deal work without Lewis, Kirilloff, or Graterol show the reliever discount, as compared to starters.

    Edited by spycake
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    The A's just traded for the shell of Homer Bailey. Montas is out, Manaea and Luzardo are still out. They may need relievers too, but they could also use starters.

     

    Good point, I had forgotten about Manaea.

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    I'd do the MadBaum/Smith package for anything within reason that doesn't include Lewis/Graterol and then add Ian Kennedy. The Grienke option is intriguing but how many years are left?

    Edited by howeda7
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