Brian Dozier's Incredible Turnaround

A few weeks ago I stumbled across a post at Fangraphs.com that tried to explain why Brian Dozier was suddenly hitting every pitch 600 feet.

It is something that Fangraphs does all the time. If there is a change in a player’s performance guys like Eno Sarris, Jeff Sullivan and August Fagerstrom do an excellent and thorough job of breaking down the ins-and-outs through stats and video. Occasionally when they are writing about a Twins player, they miss or overlook something that the local followers are aware of. It comes with the territory of trying to cover all 30 teams.

This particular Dozier write-up was more geared for the roto reader -- those into fantasy baseball -- but the post dove head-long into a mechanical breakdown of Dozier swing.

The differences aren’t too tough to spot. The tentative, bunny-hop step Dozier was using early on in the season now seems to have a purpose. His weight is more evenly distributed, his timing is smoother, and he’s incorporating his core strength more effectively. For a closer look, I freeze-framed each video at the exact moment just before Dozier starts his swing.

The big change is where he’s starting his hands. He’s brought them in tight to his body, with the bat held up straight, as opposed to keeping his hands back. This allows Dozier to get the barrel through the zone quicker, which goes a long way toward explaining the spike in hard contact, and his increased power on inside pitches.

Based on this assessment, Sport Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe picked it up and used it as a part of his analysis in explaining why Dozier has been Baseball Jesus over the last few months. "[T]he 29 year old Dozier has done impressive damage thanks to an in-season mechanical adjustment," Jaffe wrote.

Since many readers here also read a lot of Fangraph articles and writers like Jaffe, I figured I would take the time to make it clear what is and is not happening. As a preface, the author of the post is not wrong, per se. Fangraphs.com’s Scott Strandberg recognized that Brian Dozier has made some changes at the plate. There are some tweaks that are easily seen between his April stance and his August stance. It’s just that the conclusion is a bit off.

The first change that Strandberg observed is that Dozier has indeed altered his pre-swing movements, adding a much more exaggerated bat tip prior to getting his hands back. You can easily see the differences in motion as he is now tipping his barrel all the way toward the catcher with a big sweeping movement:

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That’s creating a rhythm to help time his movements with the pitcher. He's loose and oozing with confidence. In the screengrab from the Fangraphs article posted in the block quote above, the author notes that these are the two positions right before Dozier starts his swing in April and August. The conclusion is Dozier has brought his hands closer to his body and his bat upright right before he starts his swing.

Depending on what you consider the start of his swing, it might not be wholly accurate.

Backing out of the shot to where Dozier actually readies himself for the pitch, his hands and barrel are in a very similar position between the two dates. The newer model is slightly more upright than the previous version but in no way is it at the point that makes a significant difference to the overall swing. Certainly not to the extent that the screengrab would lead someone to believe.

When he gathers himself into the pre-launch position, with the front foot making contact with the ground, his barrel and hands are back to the exact same spot.

Dozier is doing something different prior to starting his swing that could be helping his timing which, in turn, may help him get to the pitch at the right moment. However, at all the critical portions of the swing, his hands and barrel are in the same spot.

It is the second statement -- “This allows Dozier to get the barrel through the zone quicker, which goes a long way toward explaining the spike in hard contact, and his increased power on inside pitches” -- is a little off the mark. In regard to hitting the inside pitch, instead of focusing on the hand position in the screengrab, notice that Dozier is further off of the plate. In early May, Dozier explained to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger the reason he moved away from the plate.

"The way my swing works is that I have to create space," Dozier said. "I like to be able to get extended, but I felt trapped and that I had to cheat, which caused me to drop [my hands]. So it's night and day now. I feel good."

Moreover, getting the barrel through the zone quicker has never been Dozier’s problem nor is it a reason why he's jacking so many bombs right now. As Tom Brunansky told me this spring, Dozier’s biggest problem was that his barrel was not in the zone long enough. He was too quick with his barrel in the zone, the exact opposite of what the author believes is happening.

The major difference between the two style of swings is a bit more complicated and harder to see in video than what was present. Dozier has been getting behind the ball more -- meaning his barrel has stayed in the zone longer than it did at the beginning of the year.

As Dozier told the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal recently, his approach at the plate is now “trying to knock down the center field wall” which is a cue to stay behind the ball and not necessarily an attempt to drive the ball to the middle of the field. "Staying behind the ball doesn’t mean trying to hit the ball the other way or up the middle,” he told Fangraphs' Sarris back in June. “I can hit 100 balls to left field and as long as I stay behind the ball and really backspin it with the top hand in a good position, I’ll get what I want.”

In a recent home run swing, you can see that in his barrel turn behind him -- which is working on getting behind the ball and staying in the zone:

This is the mechanical adjustment where the rubber meets the road for Brian Dozier. The pre-swing hand placement is mostly eyewash, a great timing mechanism that does add a small trigger difference but not an influential component of his power binge.

The real question is, with 18 games remaining in 2016, does Dozier have it in him to break Harmon Killebrew's single-season record of 49?