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  • Brewers 7, Twins 6: Poor Pitching Dooms Twins to Drop Series Opener


    Jamie Cameron

    The Twins lost 7-6 to the Brewers on Tuesday. Despite an excellent fightback and a solid overall offensive performance, the Twins couldn't overcome a poor start from Dylan Bundy, and ran out of effective relivers at the end of the game.

    Image courtesy of Benny Sieu - USA Today Sports

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    Box Score
    Starting Pitcher: Bundy 4.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 2 HR (77 pitches, 50 strikes)
    Homeruns: Buxton (24), Urshela (9)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Duffey -.360, Bundy -.327, Kirilloff -.155
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    1215918702_chart(18).png.778ef34b54a9ad55b25de18caf99948f.png

    After an easy two-game sweep of the Tigers, Byron Buxton was looking to keep things moving in the right direction for the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins, just one week away from the trade deadline. Buxton crushed a fastball 112 mph, 449 feet for a home run in the first at-bat of the inning.

    The Twins didn’t manage to add on, despite a Carlos Correa double and Kyle Garlick being gifted two bases by an errant infield throw. The end of the first inning and the bottom of the second were the perfect amalgam of the 2022 Twins weaknesses, rolled into a painfully predictable 10-minute sequence. 

    In the bottom of the second Dylan Bundy gave up two soft singles, before surrendering a blistering, three-run home run to left field off the bat Hunter Renfroe. The Brewers added another run, increasing the lead to 4-1. It was the useful reminder no Twins fans needed, that Bundy is simply not an effective major league caliber starting pitcher. The margin of error, when topping out at 90 mph, is just too small.

    Jose Miranda laced a two-run double to left field in the top of the third inning to score Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco, cutting the lead to 4-3. Bundy immediately returned the favor in the bottom of the third, surrendering another long home run to Luis Urias to make the lead 5-3.

    In the top of the fifth, the Twins took their second lead of the night. A Jose Miranda single and a walk from Jorge Polanco set the stage for an impressive three-run home run from Gio Urshela, who has made a habit of big moments in his first season in Minnesota.

    Joe Smith relieved Dylan Bundy. It went about as expected. Smith got through an inning, but gave up the game-tying run, a solo home run from Kolton Wong. Emilio Pagan followed in sixth and worked a scoreless inning, but the pitching order of Bundy, Smith, and Pagan was an obvious reminder of the Twins lack of high-end pitching depth against a fellow division leader.

    The Twins could have taken the lead in the top of the seventh. Jorge Polanco walked and Jose Miranda followed up with his third hit of the night, an infield single. A Gio Urshela fly ball looked as if it would drop but for a shoe-string intervention from Brewers centerfielder Jonathan Davis. Griffin Jax pitched a scoreless, efficient inning for the Twins in the seventh, taking the game into the eighth inning tied 6-6.

    Devin Williams pitched a scoreless eighth for the Brewers, making Twins hitters not named Luis Arraez look silly in the process. Jhoan Duran took over for the Twins in the bottom of the inning and struggled. After beginning the inning with a strikeout, the Brewers got a runner on first via a Luis Urias single. Two walks followed and Duran had loaded the bases (and walked two hitters for the first time in his career) with Willy Adames at the plate. After throwing nothin but triple digit fastballs, Duran peeled off a bowel-locking curveball that froze Adames to end the threat.

    Hader pitched a clean and much too easy ninth inning, getting Buxton, Correa, and Polanco on just nine pitches. Tyler Duffey relieved Duran, who had thrown 32 pitches in the eighth. After a quick out, Duffey surrendered a single and two walks to load the bases with one out. Luis Urias won the game for the Brewers on a sacrifice fly to right field. In a battle of the bullpens, the vastly superior bullpen will usually win.

    Outside of Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran the Twins pitching staff looks like an Escher painting of question marks at a critical juncture of their season. The Twins continue to teeter in the AL Central, seemingly the least flawed team in an ugly division, but, as currently constructed, so obviously falling short of the type of roster that could legitimately threaten in October. With the trade deadline imminent, the next week promises to be extremely interesting in Twins Territory.

    Bullpen Usage Chart

      FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT
                 
    Duran 0 11 0 0 32 43
    Duffey 0 11 0 0 25 36
    Smith 0 0 16 0 17 33
    Moran 0 28 0 0 0 28
    Jax 0 0 13 0 12 25
    Pagan 0 2 0 0 20 22
    Cotton 0 0 11 0 0 11
    Megill 0 7 0 0 0 7
    Thielbar 0 0 0 0 0 0

    Next Up
    On Wednesday, the Twins will conclude their series in Milwaukee. Chris Archer takes the mound for the Twins, against Corbin Burnes of the Brewers. First pitch is 1:10 CT

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    21 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    "The pen wasn't terrible this game" says all you need to know.

    The pen gave up the tying and winning runs, and who knows how many Duffey might have eventually surrendered.

     

    We have such low standards, it's ridiculous.

    If this team played in New York they'd be ripped to shreds by the media and fans would be throwing tomatoes at them from left field.

    This Midwestern warm-milk pollyanna 'good-try-boys' attitude from Twins fans is as old and washed up as Will Smith. Fans need to drum up a little self respect and realize we collectively deserve better than a team who at best is going to add to a world-ever-worst 0-19 playoff record.

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    3 minutes ago, bighat said:

    We have such low standards, it's ridiculous.

    If this team played in New York they'd be ripped to shreds by the media and fans would be throwing tomatoes at them from left field.

    This Midwestern warm-milk pollyanna 'good-try-boys' attitude from Twins fans is as old and washed up as Will Smith. Fans need to drum up a little self respect and realize we collectively deserve better than a team who at best is going to add to a world-ever-worst 0-19 playoff record.

    Will Smith is old??

     

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    The BP may be a weakness, but so is the BP management. The pitchers roles need to be defined and used as such. If Duran is the closer (I think he is) then he should not be brought in to face 6, 7, 8 in the 8th inning of a tie game. The bats may have gone silent and some bat at bats may have been taken late, but Rocco needs to put some blame on himself for BP mismanagement. And don't get me started about Smith (packaged with Sano to DFA for players to be named later). 

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    You trust Duffey to get out of the inning in a tie-game when he has walked, basically, the bases loaded with one out? What was he doing pitching in this inning anyways? You are playing to win, Rocco. Pull him! He didn't have it!

    You can't trust Bundy to go one more inning with a lead? After Archer, today, ALL Twins starters MUST be required to pitch at least five innings. Period. Sink or swim. Otherwise, why are they a rotation arm? Forgive me...they can go to 100 pitches at least. I starter gets in the groove during their game. They NEED to adjust and make pitches and control their game. There is no reason from hereon out ALL Twins starters can't strive to pitch past the fifth inning.

    Make Duran the closer. CLOSER!

    Two more outings for Smith at best. I loved that he got a ground ball earlier in the year. Now, nothing. Do we need to see Hamilton and Pinto from AAA? Schulfer and Sisk, too. 

     

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    5 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

    I understand the frustration with the bullpen, but I don't think it's fair to blame them for this game.

    It certainly wasn't great, but 2 ER in 5 IP against a decent Milwaukee lineup is par for the course.

    Its not how many you give up, it's WHEN. If its 6-6 in the 8th...its like a new game. Your pitcher can't give up runs then. Closers are paid to get that done more often than not. Twins don't have any shutdown pitchers and this year the starters seem to be allergic to pitching more than 3 or 4 innings.

    Blame is a useless exercise...but last night it was on the bullpen, no question. Their guys were nails, ours were noodles.

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    1 hour ago, bighat said:

    Rocco never calls individuals out in the press. If Buxton strikes out 4 times and he is asked about it, Baldelli will say something like "yeah, tough day for a lot of bats out there today" and then add "defensively he had a great game", or something like that and switch the subject. He's never once called a guy out, if anything he'll publicly heap praise on guys who are clearly struggling.

    To some it makes Rocco look clueless, but he's clearly just the type of manager who would never be critical of his own players to the press. I know the players like it, but as a fan it can be very frustrating.

    If I was a player, it would be much appreciated. So would being allowed to participate in the ASG. Rocco is a class act. 

    Edit: *ducks*

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    2 hours ago, bighat said:

    We have such low standards, it's ridiculous.

    If this team played in New York they'd be ripped to shreds by the media and fans would be throwing tomatoes at them from left field.

    This Midwestern warm-milk pollyanna 'good-try-boys' attitude from Twins fans is as old and washed up as Will Smith. Fans need to drum up a little self respect and realize we collectively deserve better than a team who at best is going to add to a world-ever-worst 0-19 playoff record.

    Self-respect = throwing things at players!?

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    I expected Duran was in for two innings. Unfortunately he couldn’t throw strikes and couldn’t make it to the 9th. If Duran does well in the 8th they don’t need Duffey until the 10th at which point they probably still lose with the absent late game offense. The offense could have taken some pressure off by scoring a run or two in the late innings. 

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    That's the problem with bringing in your best arm on the road in a tie game.  Works out great if your offense can be counted on to push across a go-ahead run when the pressure is on.  Otherwise, if you go to extras, you're in a position where you're counting on Duffey or someone interchangeable with him to earn the save, if you ever do eventually score, and maybe it's just better to get the bad news out of the way in the first place, and pitch Duffey in the 7th or 8th.

    The solution is to have more good arms of course.

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    22 hours ago, ashbury said:

    That's the problem with bringing in your best arm on the road in a tie game.  Works out great if your offense can be counted on to push across a go-ahead run when the pressure is on.  Otherwise, if you go to extras, you're in a position where you're counting on Duffey or someone interchangeable with him to earn the save, if you ever do eventually score, and maybe it's just better to get the bad news out of the way in the first place, and pitch Duffey in the 7th or 8th.

    The solution is to have more good arms of course.

    I think their best chance to win was counting on Duran to hold down the 8th and 9th and finding a way to score in the top of the 9th. Neither happened.

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    Bringing in Duran for the 8th gives you the best chance of there BEING a bottom 9.

    I'd bring in Duran there every time, and hope for the best in the 9th.

    If I hope for the best in the 8th, I might not even use my best reliever late in a tie game. Duran HAS to pitch in that game. 

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    32 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

    I think there best chance to win was counting on Duran to hold down the 8th and 9th and finding a way to score in the top of the 9th. Neither happened.

    But as the road team, there is a game-theory aspect to it.  Or, in economic terms, information has value, and if you knew in advance that your own team wasn't going to score in the top of the 8th or 9th, and if you knew that Duran could only pitch one inning (regardless of how shaky) you might readjust your strategy.  Holding Duran back for an inning buys you some of that info, at low cost.

    Of course the way the second game played out, having or not having your best arm available didn't matter.  Lose-lose scenario no matter which way Rocco decided.

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