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  • Breaking Down the Twins Signing Carlos Correa


    Jamie Cameron

    The Twins agreed to terms on a franchise trajectory-altering signing in the early hours of Saturday morning, signing Carlos Correa to a three-year, $103.5 million contract. Come and read up on Correa, his potential impact in Minnesota and what it means for the rest of the Twins offseason.

    Image courtesy of Brett Davis, USA Today Sports

    How’s this for a Story? The best free agent this offseason just signed with the Minnesota Twins.

    In an absolutely stunning turn-of-events, Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a three-year, $103.5 million contract early on Saturday morning.

    Earlier on Friday evening, Thad Levine had made comment on the unusually slowly unfolding trade market stifling moves, a reality frustrating Twins fans in their thirst for the team to add talent to the major league roster. Well, the Twins sure were working in immaculate, exquisite silence on this one. The delicious irony of trading the expensive contract of aging third baseman Josh Donaldson, only to sign the All-Star shortstop coveted by the Yankees with the newly-freed funds, is a breathtakingly brazen and exquisite move almost too delightful to put into words. 

    The Contract and Correa’s Market
    It’s innumerable the amount that Twins’ fans have collectively thought, written, tweeted, and spoken the phrase ‘we’re not getting Correa’ since pre-lockout free agency began, and with good reason. No one saw this coming. So how did the Twins acquire Correa? What does it indicate about his market, and what does the deal look like?

    The three-year $103.5 million pact makes Correa the highest-paid infielder by average annual value in Major League Baseball. That sentence in itself is a marvel to type. The Twins' ability to land this deal is surely linked to the shorter, high-AAV (Average Annual Value) contract. One would think they would not have been able to contend with other suitors' offers over a longer number of years, but even this assumption is something we should call into question. This signing will result in Twins fans having a free agency-based reckoning with themselves, to reconsider what is and what is not on the table with future targets.

    Correa’s three-year deal comes with player opt-outs after year one and year two, allowing Correa to test the waters of free agency if he wishes. Should he see out the entirety of his contract, he will be with the Twins through the end of his age-29 season. There will be time to agonize over Correa’s likely pre-contract-ending opt-out later. For now, who cares?

    What are the Twins Getting?
    So what are the Twins getting in Correa? Simply put, a superstar. Correa put up the best season of his career in 2021, amassing a whopping 5.8 fWAR over 148 games played for the Houston Astros. In 2021, Correa has a career high in home runs (26) while posting a 134 wRC+, .485 SLG, and .364 wOBA. By any offensive measure you care to choose, he’s elite.
    Correa.png.74f1f77bd1319963e988dee2ac76248a.png

    Defensively, Correa posted 12 OAA (outs above average), good for sixth in the league behind only Nicky Lopez, Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Andrelton Simmons, and Brandon Crawford. Put simply, the Twins were able to secure the single free agent who could move the needle most in the 2022 season, for any team in the league. Oh and by the way, he rakes at Target Field.

    Correa has had a clean bill of health in recent seasons, spending one 2021 trip on the IL due to health protocols, and one more in the shortened 2020 season due to a back problem. If you go back further to 2019, Correa spent a chunk of the season on the IL with back and rib injuries, but that season has been the exception, not the norm, since he made his MLB debut in 2015.

    What about the Prospects?
    The Correa move is a seismic pivot for the Twins, who just a week ago, traded Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Isiah Kiner-Falefa with the intention that he be their starting shortstop. Talk about an adjustment.

    It's easy to wonder what is next for the Twins shortstop prospects, particularly Royce Lewis, their number one draft pick in the 2017 draft. Lewis has undergone an uncanny streak of bad luck in recent seasons, punctuated by a lost season due to the pandemic in 2020 and another due to injury in 2021. The Correa deal both protects Lewis and highlights his bright future with the Twins. Lewis can get a season under his belt, moving through the high minors while Correa patrols shortstop for the Twins in 2022. It seems likely that Correa will opt out and test the waters of free agency after his first, or second season in Minnesota, meaning that if Lewis can get his development back on track, there’s a spot for him with the Twins at the major league level in 2023 and beyond. It’s a win-win in terms of competing in 2022 and maintaining flexibility at the position in the future.

    What is next for the 2022 Twins?
    So, er, what now? Two things are clear in the aftermath of signing Correa. First of all the Twins are clearly, undoubtedly working hard to win right now. Lastly, they still have work to do. While the signing of Correa could not have worked out more perfectly for the front office with their ‘let the off-season come to us’, approach, the same cannot be said for the rotation.

    The Twins currently have Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Dylan Bundy penciled into a very underwhelming starting five just a few short weeks from the start of the regular season. There are undoubted moves coming to address this. Whether it is Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, or a pitcher we have not considered yet (scrambles to check the starters for every team in the league), Twins fans can be left with little doubt the additional help is on the way. What a great comfort and excitement that is.

    Whether Correa spends one season or three in Minnesota, the signing has indelibly altered the franchise. Correa is, by far, the best free agent the Twins have ever attracted. We will forever have to question the tired refrain of ‘player x isn’t coming here’ or ‘we have no shot’. The Twins just signed the number one free agent this off-season, let that sink in. 

    Carlos Correa plays for the Minnesota Twins.

     

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    Indeed an "unlike the Twins" move.

    It's great and all, but will not amount to anything without better pitching.

    Correa could hit 300 with 30 HR and win the MVP award but it won't matter if you lose 80 games 9-7.

    If we can acquire Montas and Manea, we might have a shot. 

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    We can't seem to beat the Yankees on the field but we just beat them like a rented mule here. Almost surely Correa will opt out next year but who cares? This game is year to year as we all know. This is an audacious and great move by Falvine. I said in an early post, we should wait to judge the FO once the dust had settled. I think the dust is still swirling a bit

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    I really want to tale a step back here and appreciate how good these moves are for growing the game in Minnesota. The Twins extended a homegrown superstar and have now signed another superstar THE DAY AFTER ANNOUNCING $5 STUDENT TICKETS FOR ALL WEEKDAY GAMES.

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    14 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    Correa is a fantastic fit for the Twins. He's an impact player on offense who hits lefties & righties, home or away and provides 20 hr pop at a position where power is harder to find...and does it while not being a K-machine. An average season by him at the plate is an excellent one, the kind of performance the twins haven't gotten...ever? His defense is elite and he makes the routine plays and the spectacular ones. He's a complete player and fills the hole wonderfully.

    I'll be interested to see where he hits in this lineup; I'm guessing he might land 3rd? Maybe it goes:

    • Buxton
    • Polanco
    • Correa
    • Kirilloff
    • Sano
    • Kepler
    • Miranda
    • Arraez
    • Jeffers

    That looks pretty fun!

    Arraez batting 8 or 9 isn’t going to happen.

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    Correa is, as far as I can tell, only the 4th Carlos ever to play for the Twins.

    Carlos Gomez of course, Carlos Silva, and if you remember 1994 or 2003-4, Carlos Pulido.

    The Senators also only had 3, including Camilo Pascual's less successful smaller, older brother Carlos.

     

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    1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

    I really want to tale a step back here and appreciate how good these moves are for growing the game in Minnesota. The Twins extended a homegrown superstar and have now signed another superstar THE DAY AFTER ANNOUNCING $5 STUDENT TICKETS FOR ALL WEEKDAY GAMES.

    I am a student of human nature. Does that count? 

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    2 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

    I am a student of human nature. Does that count? 

    I think I read in another thread that they don't card you or anything if you buy them online, so as far as I know, sure.

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    What I like about this contract is that Correa should be expected to perform at the highest level for the whole thing, no declining years figured into a long-term contract. What I don't like is that he can walk after a single season, but walk years are often the most productive in a player's career. 

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    10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

    Arraez batting 8 or 9 isn’t going to happen.

    Why not? unless you start stacking lefty hitters in your lineup (which leaves you vulnerable to relievers in later innings) he's going to either have to be in the top two or towards the bottom, unless you think he should be in the heart of the order? His lack of power seems to cut against him batting 4th-5th, and his bad knees and lack of speed maybe don't make him the best choice to lead off. I suppose you could swap him and Kepler in my proposed order, but I'm not sure it makes that much difference. We're likely to start 4 RH, 4 LH, and one switch hitter in the lineup, so alternating guys makes a fair amount of sense. No breaks in the lineup, and Arraez gets to hit in front of someone with a decent amount of pop in Jeffers this way.

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    On 3/19/2022 at 7:22 AM, The Mad King said:

    Did Falvine really just play the Yankees like that? Planned? Or just odd luck...

    I bet if the Yankees thought they could get Correa for this kind of deal they would have done that and not traded with Twins.  

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    Was not on computer yesterday, but when I woke up and checked phone to see the deal I was shocked.  I kept checking to see the Story deal happen, but I am much happier with this deal.  Sure, odds are it is a 1 year deal unless Correa has down year or injury year.  However, it gives us the best player in FA this year, something no one ever thought they would say about Twins.  

    Also, who knows, maybe just maybe he will like it hear and fine with earning 35 mil for a couple more years before testing FA again.  I doubt that as he wanted something better than what Seager earned.  If both he and Buxton can stay healthy, there is little reason we should not make playoffs.  I have doubt that Buxton will, but Correa did last year.  I know many will say but we still need pitching, which maybe we do, or maybe even if we do not make a trade the young guys will get it done.  

    With this signing, we basically traded Garver and Donaldson for Correa, for at least 1 year, and I am okay with that.  I fully expect a trade with Oakland in coming days, just not sure who they will be giving up. 

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    On 3/20/2022 at 9:27 AM, jmlease1 said:

    Why not? unless you start stacking lefty hitters in your lineup (which leaves you vulnerable to relievers in later innings) he's going to either have to be in the top two or towards the bottom, unless you think he should be in the heart of the order? His lack of power seems to cut against him batting 4th-5th, and his bad knees and lack of speed maybe don't make him the best choice to lead off. I suppose you could swap him and Kepler in my proposed order, but I'm not sure it makes that much difference. We're likely to start 4 RH, 4 LH, and one switch hitter in the lineup, so alternating guys makes a fair amount of sense. No breaks in the lineup, and Arraez gets to hit in front of someone with a decent amount of pop in Jeffers this way.

    I’d bat Arraez at 1, 2 or 6 but thats just me. 

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