Brandon Kintzler: Proven Closer?

As good as 1,2,3 innings are, the occasional escape like he pulled the other night help to provide proof of his resiliency and calm under pressure.  Given what relievers are going for, I could see Kintzler netting something at least as good as what the Twins gave up for Jepsen.  Probably better.  Then again, I know nothing.

Seems the Cubs believe in the myth of a "proven closer".

Trade him.  Learn from the Jepsen experience.  Bullpen pitchers are notoriously unreliable from year to year.  Closing tor a losing team is not the same as it is for a winning organization and we need to experiment with our minor league flame throwers and see what else might be there for the future.  In this lost year it does not make sense to just pad Kinzler's stats. 

Or they believe in getting one of the most dominating pitchers this game has seen in a very long time...

Chapman could become one of the most dominating RP in the game. He hasn't yet, not by any metric either last year or this year: ERA, FIP, WAR, WPA, Shutdown/Meltdown %. As of now, he's a proven closer - not the most dominant.

Huh?  Are you seriously arguing the Chapman isn't one of the most dominating RP in the game?  He may not be the "most" dominant this year, but that wasn't the claim -- he is clearly one of the most dominant, and is valued according to that.

 

Chapman's K% ranks among qualified relievers after his rookie year:

 

2016: 6th

2015: 1st

2014: 1st

2013: 1st

2012: 2nd

 

K-BB% ranks (eliminating the overly wild strikeout guys)

 

2016: 6th

2015: 3rd

2014: 1st

2013: 3rd

2012: 2nd

 

Oh, and he has a 1.91 ERA since 2012, and a 1.76 FIP, lest you are concerned that his peripherals haven't led to results.  And a 2.01 ERA and 1.93 FIP this year.

Yeah, he strikes out a lot of people. He's up on the list but others have been more dominant. Britton, Jansen, Familia, Harris, Davis have all had better SD/MD ratios and WPA this year. Over the past two years, add Ziegler, Cody Allen and Kimbrel to the others. If you want to say all of these relievers are dominant, fine. He's currently at the end of the list.

Even Hector Rondon of the Cubs ranks higher in these categories over the last two seasons. Chapman is more proven and will close.

As for Chapman, I think he throws hard and he's an established closer. He also has shot more holes in the roof of his garage than any other reliever on this list.

 

 

To an extent, the same applies to SD/MD. They're counting stats that largely depend on opportunity.

 

For example, Britton has 41 appearances. Chapman has 31 appearances. Don't you think using counting stats is a bit of a problem at that point?

I was talking shutdowns to meltdowns (percentage), which does not depend on number of opportunities. My observation stands on that metric.  Yes, WPA depends on opportunity and leverage. He still doesn't match up to Britton and others over the last two seasons.

The original comment was meant to tweak folks about the myth of the closer. Chapman has great stuff and the Cubs need that to win this year. And he's a proven closer. I just had to respond to righteous indignance.

Kintzler is one of those guys.....no team is going to grab him to be a closer. They would grab him for depth, which is what the Twins did. Before trading, they would weigh their own minor league options.

So the chances are good that Kintzler will remain a Twin going into the of season and join the notorious group of Guerrier, Burton, Boyer, Fien and others that the Twins have stashed on their major league roster and we can't rpedict where they will eventually end up or how much wear we can get out of them.

Even a team seeking a lefty might punt for Abad. Maybe not. 

Face it...the Twins really don't have a lot of guys that teams will fight over. More so, tems will wait to see what direction the Twins do take and what they do with their pieces (don't offer arbitration to Plouffe in off-season, for example, or just release Nolasco and eat his salary next year).

More and more I don't see the Twins eating salary if they don't have to. But I see them parting ways with a player (i.e. Plouffe) rather than overpay.

So unless a few prospects don't fit into future plans (perhaps Polanco or Walker) and they can be packaged with a salary, we may have to wait to see if some guys can peak out and create interest in their arms, fer sure, in 2017 before that trade deadline, assuming the Twins aren't in the playoff hunt.

Yeah, I don't see that.  When we acquired him last year, Jepsen had a career 0.6 HR/9 and 8.5 K/9 in consistently high leverage work.

 

Kintzler has stepped up nicely, but even this year he has a 1.2 HR/9 and a 5.9 K/9, and similar rates for his career (0.9 HR/9, 6.5 K/9).  For his career, he's been a neutral leverage pitcher.  He's more valuable than, say, Blaine Boyer, but I think his effectiveness is probably viewed as closer to Boyer on the spectrum than even Jepsen 2015, much less the arms that went before Jepsen last year and the arms that are being swapped and discussed so far this year.

Perhaps Kintzler is an example of the rubber meeting the road--at what point, as a GM of a contending team, do you rely on long-term statistics vs. SSS theater?  I read in MLBTR that teams are looking hard at Huston Street and other "proven relievers" with good career numbers, with the caveat that these guys aren't having their best seasons ever.  

Kintzler's currently gettin' her done.  Obviously, no contender is trading for him to close or even pitch late innings.  For teams going all in, and luxury shopping for every eventuality, acquiring a Kintzler for your bullpen might be a smart move, and one that would be worth a Hu-level prospect.

Guy's who can get David Ortiz to ground into a DP, with the bases loaded, on the road, with no outs…again--I KNOW what his track record says.  But he's hot right now.  Relievers are lightning in a bottle. Grab it while you can.