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  • Berríos or Buxton: Who is Worth a $100 Million Deal?

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Both Byron Buxton and José Berríos are both heading to free agency at the end of next season. Neither player is in a spot to accept a team-friendly deal, so who would be a better investment with a contract near $100 million?

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

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    The José Berríos Argument

    Minnesota has struggled to develop pitching for decades and Berríos is one of the lone bright spots in recent memory. He’s a two-time All-Star and he might be heading for his third selection this season. For his career, he has a 105 ERA+ as his debut season was his only year with an ERA+ below 100. Twins fans have wanted him to develop into an “ace” and while that may not have happened, he has been an above average MLB pitcher throughout his career.

    Some players of similar ages have gotten anywhere from $40-$85 million. Would Berríos accept a deal for 5-years and $100 million? That would put him ahead of all these other players in his age group and it might be enough to keep him from hitting the open market.

    According to FanGraphs value calculations, Berríos has been worth $99.6 million during his big-league career. In ever full season since 2017, he has been worth north of $21.5 million. Another thing to consider is the fact that he is just entering his prime as a pitcher. The Twins know him well and he can be an anchor at the top of their rotation for years to come.

    The Byron Buxton Argument

    Many Twins fans might think Berrios is an easy choice when it comes to handing out $100 million. However, Buxton is a game changing player that is the true definition of a five-tool player. Injuries and bad luck have been part of his big-league career, but that takes nothing away from what he has been able to accomplish. When he is on the field, he is a difference maker on both sides of the ball and the results speak for themselves. Over the last three seasons, the Twins are 100-52 when Buxton plays, and they are below .500 without him.

    Even with his injury history, FanGraphs value calculations have Buxton worth $90.9 million throughout his career. He’s been worth over $20 million in three different seasons, including this year where he has been limited to 27 games. He was playing at a level of a player worth $35 million or more per season. Buxton is also the type of player that fans may regret seeing in another uniform because of the value he can provide to a team. George Springer signed a $150 million deal last winter and Buxton can be an even better player than Springer when he is on the field.

    It seems unlikely for the Twins to spend $100 million on both these players so the front office may need to decide who is going to provide the most value in the years ahead.

    Who do you think is a better investment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Berrios is 100% worth 5/100, and if he'd sign for that, I'd bet he'd be signed this summer.......I'm thinking he's looking for 6/140+.

    Buxton, of course, is much trickier. He's just not been on the field in any season for close to the full season. Not once. On the other side of the coin, he's a great player at this point. Some wealthy team can take the chance he's hurt again....I'm not sure the Twins can. Also, it is much easier to find CFers than SPs......Frankly, I have no idea what I'd do with him at this point. I don't think he even considers 5/100 at this point. He's looking for at least $25MM per year, I'd guess. IF they can get 2 prospects they really believe in for him, I'd consider dealing him (SP, SS, CF types only....no more bat first corner players, please).

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

    This.  Any other take is like buying a mansion because you're convinced that next lottery ticket is "the one" 

    It's fundamental asset mismanagement of the worst kind: ignoring the obvious on fool's hope.

    The idea that you can predict Buxton's future health, or Berrios's for that matter, is iffy at best.

    A player like Donaldson, or Thome, with known chronic issues, can certainly be expected to miss time. 

    Buxton's only similar issue is his history of concussion, and that hasn't been a problem for some time now. Getting hit in the hand with a pitch is a fluke, not a chronic issue.

    Given how often pitchers break down, I don't even think it's a good bet Berrios is healthier than Buxton going forward. 

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    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 17,473

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    apples and oranges.....since Berrios has an influence on every opposition AB while in the game......but you knew that. 

    These are the kind of arguments necessary when you're trying to make a case that just doesn't make any sense.

    Byron Buxton, if he were a free agent in two months, would not get a $100M contract.  No GM, anywhere in the league, is going to sign on for that.  None.  Could he get a 1 year 20M deal?  Sure.  Maybe even 2/40.  Someone might bet on the potential but they'd hedge the years or make it incredibly incentive driven.  In the age of analytics he would be lucky to get half of a 5/100M contract straight up.

    Berrios, on the other hand, is not only certain he could get 5/100 but it's likely low for what he'd get on the open market.

    This conversation is really that simple.  If you're convincing yourself Buxton is worth 5/100 but not Berrios, you're going to have to engage in some pretzel logic to get there.

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

    These are the kind of arguments necessary when you're trying to make a case that just doesn't make any sense.

    Byron Buxton, if he were a free agent in two months, would not get a $100M contract.  No GM, anywhere in the league, is going to sign on for that.  None.  Could he get a 1 year 20M deal?  Sure.  Maybe even 2/40.  Someone might bet on the potential but they'd hedge the years or make it incredibly incentive driven.  In the age of analytics he would be lucky to get half of a 5/100M contract straight up.

    Berrios, on the other hand, is not only certain he could get 5/100 but it's likely low for what he'd get on the open market.

    This conversation is really that simple.  If you're convincing yourself Buxton is worth 5/100 but not Berrios, you're going to have to engage in some pretzel logic to get there.

    My guess is Buxton gets more in free agency than Berrios, if they both end up there after the 2022 season. 

    12 pack of Grain Belt Premium?

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    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 5,941

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Buxton.

    Buxton will have a year where he plays 140 or more games and leads his team to success in the playoffs. I hope it is the Twins.

    The Twins really need to pay for both. It might mean trying to unload Donaldson’s contract. It might mean paying up starting in 2022 and needing to let go of Rogers contract as well as not replacing a Cruz.

    if only one it has to be Buxton. He is the difference maker.

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    Dodecahedron

    Dodecahedron 747

  • Twins Daily Jail

    • Posted

    31 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    My guess is Buxton gets more in free agency than Berrios, if they both end up there after the 2022 season. 

    12 pack of Grain Belt Premium?

    It would not surprise me at all if another team takes the Buxton Plunge.  If your org has tons of cash and you just need a handful more wins to be utterly dominant, Buxton is the guy.  Buxton could lead an already good team to 120, 125 wins, maybe more, utterly insane numbers, even if he is in a full body cast for half the year.

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    USAFChief

    USAFChief 58,010

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

    Buxton.

    Buxton will have a year where he plays 140 or more games and leads his team to success in the playoffs. I hope it is the Twins.

    The Twins really need to pay for both. It might mean trying to unload Donaldson’s contract. It might mean paying up starting in 2022 and needing to let go of Rogers contract as well as not replacing a Cruz.

    if only one it has to be Buxton. He is the difference maker.

    Concur on all points.

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    roger

    roger 3,369

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I would love seeing the Twins keep both for their entire career.  So count me among those who would like to see them sign both.  Can it be done, certainly.

    While having this discussion, unless I missed it no one is talking about the other $90,000,000-$100,000,000 in their budget.  How will that be distributed to the other 24 players?  If the Twins really are close to having their minor league system begin putting players on their roster, ten players at or near the minimum is less than $10M of that $90+M.  Should they only have four or five at the minimum, well, that changes this.

    So yes, go out and get it done as long as Buxton cooperates and agrees to some type of incentives tied to games played.  Then milk the system with players like Miranda, Lewis, Rortvedt, Winder, Balazovic, Moran and others getting this team back on track and on their way to the promised land.

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    chpettit19

    chpettit19 8,662

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    apples and oranges.....since Berrios has an influence on every opposition AB while in the game......but you knew that. 

    Found this to be an interesting argument/discussion point so wanted to look up some numbers (baseball reference was my source for this data).

    Batters faced per season by Berrios from 2016-today: 281, 616, 797, 842, 271, 338. Total: 3145

    Plate appearances per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 331, 511, 94, 295, 135, 110. Total: 1476

    Fielding "Chances" (putouts + assists + errors) per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 249, 400, 70, 224, 105, 71. Total: 1119

    PA and Chances total for Buxton: 2595

    So Berrios has influenced 3145 "events" on the field since his debut and Buxton has influenced 2595. Don't know what you, or anyone else, wants to draw from that, but I found it interesting.

    *Obviously a very basic way of looking at this concept that doesn't include Berrios fielding data or Buxton steals, effect on positioning by other fielders because of his range, etc. etc. etc.

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    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 17,473

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

    Found this to be an interesting argument/discussion point so wanted to look up some numbers (baseball reference was my source for this data).

    Batters faced per season by Berrios from 2016-today: 281, 616, 797, 842, 271, 338. Total: 3145

    Plate appearances per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 331, 511, 94, 295, 135, 110. Total: 1476

    Fielding "Chances" (putouts + assists + errors) per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 249, 400, 70, 224, 105, 71. Total: 1119

    PA and Chances total for Buxton: 2595

    So Berrios has influenced 3145 "events" on the field since his debut and Buxton has influenced 2595. Don't know what you, or anyone else, wants to draw from that, but I found it interesting.

    *Obviously a very basic way of looking at this concept that doesn't include Berrios fielding data or Buxton steals, effect on positioning by other fielders because of his range, etc. etc. etc.

    I just want to commend you for a highly interesting post that probably took you some time to put together!

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    Hosken Bombo Disco

    Hosken Bombo Disco 15,870

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

    Found this to be an interesting argument/discussion point so wanted to look up some numbers (baseball reference was my source for this data).

    Batters faced per season by Berrios from 2016-today: 281, 616, 797, 842, 271, 338. Total: 3145

    Plate appearances per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 331, 511, 94, 295, 135, 110. Total: 1476

    Fielding "Chances" (putouts + assists + errors) per season by Buxton from 2016-today: 249, 400, 70, 224, 105, 71. Total: 1119

    PA and Chances total for Buxton: 2595

    So Berrios has influenced 3145 "events" on the field since his debut and Buxton has influenced 2595. Don't know what you, or anyone else, wants to draw from that, but I found it interesting.

    *Obviously a very basic way of looking at this concept that doesn't include Berrios fielding data or Buxton steals, effect on positioning by other fielders because of his range, etc. etc. etc.

    Agreed - very interesting. 

    Plus, for starting pitchers, it’s already baked into the negotiation. 

    No agent is going to come back to the starting pitcher client and say, “the team wants to offer you more, but they have concerns that you started in only 32 games last season.” With Buxton, his time missed will be a huge concern for teams bidding on him. At this point he won’t have a strong comeback for them, either.

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    MABB1959

    MABB1959 527

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I would like to keep them both and think the Twins organization should pay them.   I think one issue will be....do they want to play here?  I think they would take less to play on a team that is at least a contender every year so they potentially can make it to a WS.  I would love to know how many talented players have the Twins on listed in their contact as a no trade team.

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