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  • Beating Vegas: The Baltimore Orioles

    John Bonnes

    By John Bonnes

    Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit!

    The Orioles entered the last two months of 2016 as a Wild Card favorite - and completely folded. The slide started with a four-game sweep at the hands of the Twins, led to a 11-18 August, and it took a hot (and meaningless) last week for the Orioles to finish with a .500 record. Their offseason consisted mostly of bringing back their players for another run.

    Twins Video

    Vegas’ Line: 79.5 wins (last in the AL East)

    What The Line Is Saying

    "We didn't believe in you last year - and we were right. Why would we believe in you this year?"

    Coming off a 96-win season in 2014, Vegas set an 82.5 total for the Orioles last year - and that was still too high.

    They’ll Beat Vegas If…

    ....their strategic free agent signings do well. That starts with Yovani Gallardo, who they got for just $22M over two years after renegotiating when the Orioles found something they didn't like in Gallardo's physical. But the market's concerns about Gallardo are very real: his strikeout rate has consistently and significantly dropped each of the last three years.

    If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set.

    They’ll Lose To Vegas If…

    …they continue to get old. Or the Buck Showalter magic wears off. Showalter has shown to be a stellar manager, but his demanding nature has also lost a few clubhouses in his tenures. If things go south early, or if the rest of the AL East just proves to be too competitive, it'll be interesting to see what happens when the mood gets ugly.

    I’ll Bet The….

    UNDER

    I think the Orioles under Showalter have been a consistently underappreciated and underrated team - but even I am pessimistic. It feels like their competitive window is closing, and they're running on borrowed time.

    Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’.

    This is our first of 15 stories, so stop by tomorrow for our next preview and to give us your pick.

    John cofounded Twins Daily and co-hosts the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. 
    Follow John Bonnes on Twitter: @TwinsGeek

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    Featured Comments

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

    Obviously, my vote doesn't count for the contest but I'll take the under. I think the Orioles age a bit and end up in fourth or fifth place with 74-78 wins. The ALE is always a tough division and I think New York, Boston, and Toronto will beat down their win total.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

     

    Under, but not by a lot. I think that the East will be closely grouped between 75-90 wins in the AL, as will most divisions in the AL.

    Yeah, same here. It's hard to predict the AL because one team going on a mini-streak could be the difference between fourth and second in a division, even if it only bumps them from 78 to 81 wins.

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    dave_dw

    dave_dw 63

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Under. It's not a good sign when your pitching staff is anchored by Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez...unless it's 2010, which it's not (although I am still hearing "Hey, Soul Sister" on the radio for some reason). I don't think their hitting is going to be good enough to overcome their poor pitching staff, especially in a tough division.

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    biggentleben

    biggentleben 2,583

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I'll go with the over...a full season of Wieters plus better depth helps them squeak by the over.

    Already having issues with the elbow barking for Wieters, though, so a full season is in pretty high question.

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    biggentleben

    biggentleben 2,583

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Yeah, same here. It's hard to predict the AL because one team going on a mini-streak could be the difference between fourth and second in a division, even if it only bumps them from 78 to 81 wins.

    That's the only nervousness I have with the under. Their lineup has a lot of guys that if they're all hot at the same time could carry them to a tremendous couple of weeks. Davis, Alvarez, Trumbo, Jones, and Hardy all could pile up wins if three of them are hot together.

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

     

    That's the only nervousness I have with the under. Their lineup has a lot of guys that if they're all hot at the same time could carry them to a tremendous couple of weeks. Davis, Alvarez, Trumbo, Jones, and Hardy all could pile up wins if three of them are hot together.

    I feel the same about 12-13 of the teams in the AL but somebody has to get the under, it may as well be the Orioles (though IMO, the Yankees are on just as shaky of ground as Baltimore).

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    Tom Roller

    Tom Roller 0

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Under.

     

    I don't trust that pitching, especially their "prized" FA Gallardo.

     

    It's also an aging club and I don't think they have enough firepower in their lineup to make up for an inconsistent rotation.

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    John Bonnes

    John Bonnes 3,583

  • Owner

    • Posted

     

     It's also an aging club and I don't think they have enough firepower in their lineup to make up for an inconsistent rotation.

     

    That's kind of where I am. But as I wrote these up, I realized I could say the same about a LOT of the AL this year.

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