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  • Be Wary of Michael Fulmer


    Ted Wiedmann

    He was the only player the Twins acquired at the trade deadline that was effective. He's also still a free agent, but he is not without red flags. 

     

    Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer

    Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? 

    Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. 

    However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. 

    Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. 

    In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. 

    The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. 

    I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere

     

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    23 hours ago, miller761 said:

    Wouldn't a final bullpen spot be good for a reliever who can throw multiple innings? Maybe a starting pitcher who does not make the rotation. He can then piggyback a short start without using multiple bullpen arms. He could do this 3 times in a 2 week period saving a lot of bullpen appearances.

    Kenta Maeda is my choice - comes with experience in that role!!

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    23 hours ago, pierre75275 said:

    I still think once they can put 40 man roster guys on the DL, they will sign a guy like Chafin, Moore, Hand or a Fulmer. 

    If none of those guys are available I think the front office is comfortable rolling with what they have.

    I also think that's why if Kep gets traded it will be for prospects or a comp round pick or both 

     

    It appears they are holding still with current relievers until that point. Maybe they have a deal outlined with one of these guys? Fingers crossed!

    I still want the Maeda contract adjusted slightly so they can use him in the Pen. BEST long relief option.

    Any of the 4 guys above are worth signing, not because they have outstanding stuff, but because they won’t blink in the 8th inning in July nor September after they just walked a guy. Our current relief corps is young or not a lot of intestinal fortitude (J. Lopez/Pagán) shown to date.

    We’d be really solid with one of those guys & Maeda displacing Pagán & López.

    PEN:

    (1 of FA above) plus Maeda - Jax - Duran - Megill - Moran - Thielbar - Alcala 

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    4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Kenta Maeda is my choice - comes with experience in that role!!

    What experience? He was a reliever for the Dodgers in the last month of the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Virtually all of those appearance were shorter stints. He did have 2 consecutive long relief appearances in 2019. He was a starter through August and his first two relief appearances were 4 innings. One looks like he followed an opener and the other a piggyback. Neither looks like an unplanned long relief role. On September 8 he followed an opener and took over the game in the third inning. The opener did not give up a run. On September 2 the starter pitched 5 innings and he pitched 4. The Dodgers scored 4 runs the half inning after he entered and he stayed in to finish the game. That is the only possible long relief appearance and his entry could have been planned for that game in a September piggy back start. It would have his natural day to start.

    The Twins will have to look elsewhere to find a pitcher with experience in that role. It will be hard to find. Teams have stopped utilizing long relievers.

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    8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

    What experience? He was a reliever for the Dodgers in the last month of the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Virtually all of those appearance were shorter stints. He did have 2 consecutive long relief appearances in 2019. He was a starter through August and his first two relief appearances were 4 innings. One looks like he followed an opener and the other a piggyback. Neither looks like an unplanned long relief role. On September 8 he followed an opener and took over the game in the third inning. The opener did not give up a run. On September 2 the starter pitched 5 innings and he pitched 4. The Dodgers scored 4 runs the half inning after he entered and he stayed in to finish the game. That is the only possible long relief appearance and his entry could have been planned for that game in a September piggy back start. It would have his natural day to start.

    The Twins will have to look elsewhere to find a pitcher with experience in that role. It will be hard to find. Teams have stopped utilizing long relievers.

    He’s 35 & has X years experience in MLB. Long relief today is more than 3 outs…….I think he’d be great in 1.3 - 2.3 inning stints!

    The other long relief options I’ve seen posted are Ober & Winder. Their experience is measured in multiple months.

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    22 hours ago, hitterscount said:

    If Rocco utilizes the starting rotation as he did last year there will never be enough bullpen arms. 

     

    17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    I admit to being a bit wary after reading the information in the OP. But I'm still interested if the $ isn't steep. He's got a live arm, is only 30yo, IIRC, and might even have a little upside in the pen as he's only being doing it for a about 1 1/2 years. And we're talking about a live arm for the 6th-7th and not necessarily a set-up guy.

    While I am still OK with Fulmer, I have wondered if a LH to team with Thielbar might not be the best option, however. Moran still fits as a 3rd lefty, especially since he generally has reverse splits.

    We were 1 out less than league average per start………..   6 pitches less per start than league average. 78 pitches v. 84 pitches

    Ober - Archer - Gray - Bundy - Winder - Mahle ALL either were injured on & off in ‘22 or had been in previous season.

    If Archer started we all hoped he’d get through 4 innings w/o imploding!!! 

    Ryan was a Rookie.

    What’s the problem with Baldelli????

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    22 hours ago, sun said:

    FYI, MLB teams cannot trade draft picks. The NFL does but the MLB does not allow it.

    Comp round picks can be traded, regular round picks cannot, but the comp rounds can, and increasingly have been. 

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    34 minutes ago, Trov said:

    Comp round picks can be traded, regular round picks cannot, but the comp rounds can, and increasingly have been. 

    Thank You. I learned that the number of comp. picks is variable from year to year and there can be as many as 14 & 15. Also 3 comp. picks were traded last year.

     https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-competitive-balance-rounds-set-2023

    About Fulmer, maybe he doesn't fit into the Twins plans because they want 6 starters in the rotation and/or a dedicated long reliever. 

     

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    10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    He’s 35 & has X years experience in MLB. Long relief today is more than 3 outs…….I think he’d be great in 1.3 - 2.3 inning stints!

    The other long relief options I’ve seen posted are Ober & Winder. Their experience is measured in multiple months.

    Moran had experience in that 1.3 to 2.3 role last year. He has the advantage of options when he need to go longer. It might be better to use Maeda but those outings are often lower leverage.

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