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  • Again? The Twins Lose Carlos Correa to the Mets.


    John  Bonnes

    In a nearly unheard of reversal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post is reporting that the Carlos Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315M contract with the Mets, after his 13-year, $350M deal with the Giants fell through.

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    The middle-of-the-night deal was struck after an unknown medical concern caused the Giants to postpone their scheduled press conference to introduce the superstar shortstop. The new deal is one-year and $35M short of the deal that was in place with San Francisco.

    It is also $30M and two years more than the Minnesota Twins final offer to Carlos Correa last week, which was for 10 years and $285M. Mets owner Steve Cohen revealed that last week the Mets made an offer last week of $300M, but talks with the Giants had already advanced, so that offer was rejected. 

    The Mets had not been identified as a suitor for Correa’s services throughout most of his time on the free agent market, mostly because they are currently paying fellow superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor $341M to man the position. But last week, Lindor publicly welcomed the pursuit of Correa. It is not clear which player will play where in the infield. 

    There were never any reports of the Twins exceeding $300M of guaranteed money in any of their offers to Correa. However, the new amount that Correa excepted is seemingly much closer to the level the Twins were willing to pay. Adding $15M per year over two years (perhaps on a player option?) for Correa when he would be 38 and 39 years old is still a significant risk. But by 2033 and 2034, even the Twins' payroll could be well north of $200M given MLB’s rising salaries. It might have been risky, maybe even silly, but $15M of dead money for those two years should not have been crippling to a franchise. 

    Whether the Twins decided not to take that risk, or whether the Mets, Correa and agent Scott Boras never game them that chance, is unknown. 

    How much “risk” the contract represents to the mega-rich Mets are taking is certainly debatable. What is not debatable is just how much it is going to cost them, and it far exceeds the value of the contract. Next year, the Mets will also need to pay a 90% “tax” on the average annual value (AAV) of the deal because they are over the highest threshold of MLB’s luxury tax level for the second year in a row. 

    That means that while the Mets are paying Correa and AAV of $26.25M ($315M/12 years) they have to contribute another $23.625M to be distributed to other MLB clubs. That means their true cost is almost $50M per year for Correa, and will be for as many years as their payroll exceeds that luxury tax threshold. 

    That illustrates the difference the Twins (and all mid-market team) are having competing for top-end free agents compared to large-market (or in this case, deep-pocket) owners. While the Twins offer wasn't so much less than the Mets winning bid, Correas was worth twice as much to the Mets. Enough, in fact to overcome the severe luxury tax penalty imposed by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. 

    In reality, things haven't change much for the Twins since their situation 48 hours ago. They still are sitting with $30-40M worth of payroll room, but also with a free agent market devoid of top-end talent. But what looked like an unforeseen gift - similar to Correa falling into their laps last offseason - now looks like just another lost opportunity.  

     

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    2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    Baseball is broken. This is a horrible signing for the future of the league - particularly if the Mets, or any other of the dwindling number of franchises that can compete in this “arms race”, wins the Pennant or WS.

    This portends even greater loss of interest in professional baseball outside of a few major franchises. For the current and future fans of most of the MLB’s teams, there is very little reason to commit the time and money over years and years to a futile dream. Better just wait to jump on the bandwagon for that one season, if it ever comes, when lightning strikes and the team truly competes.

    As I have said in many of my posts, I am a “super fan” watching over 150 Twins games each year. Not this year. I have really no interest in prioritising my summer days and nights to watch our current team in this current MLB environment. My love of the game only goes so far.  Assuming I reup for the MLB package this season, maybe I’ll tune in more often later in the season when our prospects show up.

    This is how this super fan feels. It’s not just the CC signing. It’s the direction of MLB and the direction of the Twins within that dynamic. Imagine how the less committed fans will feel over time. For many franchises, the Twins most certainly included, baseball fandom will become primarily a bandwagon phenomenon. 

    I think baseball fandom is already a bandwagon phenomenon for young people.  I teach high school kids and I have noticed over the past decade that kids no longer care about the Twins.  Every year, I might have 1 or 2 of the 175 students I work with who know anything about the Twins, or MLB baseball in general.  Even the kids who play report little interest in watching.  They definitely follow the Wild, Vikings, and Wolves though.  

    I can't say I blame them.  I am also a devoted Twins fan.  The Twins are hard to watch.  I loved watching the aggressive base running and outfield defense in the early 2000s.  Now when players dive for a ball or try to leg out an xbh (on those occasions the ball is actually put in play) I find myself dreading the days of rest or trip to the dl the player might need.  I find myself not wanting them to play hard.  

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    2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    I believe that depends on the state. I filed taxes in 3 different states the last couple years and, unless my tax person is stealing my credits/just not filing correctly, I didn't get any credits for the other 2 states I filed in.

    When I lived out of the country for partial years, paid taxes on what I earned there. When I filed my U.S. taxes, they figured out the taxes owed on the whole year earnings, both within and outside the U.S., then deducted what I already paid to the foreign entity. When it was entire years, I still had to file, but but paid no U.S. taxes, but with proof of my foreign residency and paid taxes on my earnings there. But, that’s not a state to state thing. It wouldn’t seem right, if living in another state, then they pay income tax, again, on their total earnings, so at some point an adjustment would need to be made? I’m not sure how that works. It’s complicated.

    But all that aside, income tax rates from state to state is NOT A FACTOR in where a player signs. It’s just not, so I wish people would stop saying that.

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    10 minutes ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

    I think baseball fandom is already a bandwagon phenomenon for young people.  I teach high school kids and I have noticed over the past decade that kids no longer care about the Twins.  Every year, I might have 1 or 2 of the 175 students I work with who know anything about the Twins, or MLB baseball in general.  Even the kids who play report little interest in watching.  They definitely follow the Wild, Vikings, and Wolves though.  

    I can't say I blame them.  I am also a devoted Twins fan.  The Twins are hard to watch.  I loved watching the aggressive base running and outfield defense in the early 2000s.  Now when players dive for a ball or try to leg out an xbh (on those occasions the ball is actually put in play) I find myself dreading the days of rest or trip to the dl the player might need.  I find myself not wanting them to play hard.  Why

    Why shouldn't it be bandwagon? Why should people support bad teams? Bandwagon fans are closer to logical than those that support bad teams. 

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    5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    You can have one elite player, or two joey Gallo's and a guy close to the veteran minimum.... 

    There sure are a lot of people in this board with inside information! That know what's happening!

    I'm utterly stunned by this development. Everything else is made up conjecture.

    If it's said on the internet it must be true!

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    1 hour ago, Loosey said:

    I have always been a proponent of "NO SALARY CAP" to protect owners because I don't care about the owners money, they are all billionaires and am happy for players to get their piece of the pie.  However, this offseason has sort of shown that if you essentially have unlimited funds you can overpay every other billionaire and just completely buck the system.  So I am now leaning toward not only a cap but a hard cap of sorts.  Even if a Cap of $300MM was set only a handful of teams would reach it, but other teams would likely spend more because the teams that cap out woudln't be able to continue to buy more players.  This in effect would probably hurt the super stars like Correa a bit and limit them from reaching those $40M figures were heading towards but would probably end up being good for baseball in the long run.

    If a salary cap becomes a thing, then so must setting a floor that owners cannot go under without strict financial penalties. I mean, payrolls running the difference from $60mil - $400mil … that’s huge. But what should be the cap, what should be the floor, and what should be the penalties?

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    57 minutes ago, Loosey said:

    I play men's hockey with a recently retired MLB player.  I will ask him how the taxes work.  He's pretty open about sharing some of the stuff i had never known about when it comes to MLB and perks, etc.

    That would be great info to share! Thanks! But also ask if where they sign, do taxes matter to them? If you could, for me? I’d be curious as my stance has always been I don’t think it matters, at least not to the big earners.

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    49 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    But all that aside, income tax rates from state to state is NOT A FACTOR in where a player signs. It’s just not, so I wish people would stop saying that.

    Based on what? Some states have zero income tax, others go to a top rate as high as 13.3% (CA), and San Francisco has its own income tax, I believe 1.5%.  You apply those rates to millions of dollars, why wouldn't that be at least something to consider?

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    1 hour ago, Dave Lemke said:

    Baseball, especially the Twins, has always been my favorite sport. I was born here the same month the Twins started playing here! My question is if we should just contract about 20 teams. There is no way a small market team can compete year after year. Things seem to have gotten totally out of control. I am close to giving up hope on baseball as a whole. Large market teams have the commissioner in there pocket and the big money players seem to only care about how much they get and control the players association. How many years are left with serious change?

    Instead of contracting, I'd rather they go to a multi-tiered system ala soccer leagues in the UK. If you finish in the bottom 3 you get relegated down, likewise if you finish in the top 3 you move up.

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    This proves definitively that the Twins were never really "in" on Correa. As the dust settles on the Carlos Correa chapter, I'm still left with one overriding question: as fans, how can we really trust the judgment of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine at this point?

    Their sin isn't coming up (woefully) short on their Plan A of signing Correa.  Rather, their sin was having a totally incorrect and unrealistic Plan A, to begin with.

     By allowing themselves to be bamboozled down a rabbit hole from which there was no escape, Falvey and Levine ruined their opportunity to make the 2023 Twins a better baseball team (and severely compromised the club's chances of competing for a division title in the process). 

    When you get something as catastrophically wrong as they did with the Correa Sweepstakes, why should we trust them to suddenly get it right next time? 

    Of course, this looks even worse now that we know how Correa ended up with the Twins in the first place. It was actually Scott Boras who approached the Twins, not the other way around. The Twins were Boras's mark right from the start. And wouldn't you know, Falvey and Levine became wooed by the shiny object -- like a star-crossed lover. 

    It's very difficult for me to see how this front office comes back from this. Sure, they'll make some trades. And by virtue of playing in MLB's weakest division, the Twins will probably have a chance to make the playoffs. But none of that absolves Falvey and Levine for this embarrassing boondoggle of an offseason. A year from now when they're formulating their new Plan A -- there's a pretty decent chance that it'll once again be the wrong Plan A.  

     

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    2 minutes ago, cjvirnig said:

    This proves definitively that the Twins were never really "in" on Correa. As the dust settles on the Carlos Correa chapter, I'm still left with one overriding question: as fans, how can we really trust the judgment of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine at this point?

    Their sin isn't coming up (woefully) short on their Plan A of signing Correa.  Rather, their sin was having a totally incorrect and unrealistic Plan A, to begin with.

     By allowing themselves to be bamboozled down a rabbit hole from which there was no escape, Falvey and Levine ruined their opportunity to make the 2023 Twins a better baseball team (and severely compromised the club's chances of competing for a division title in the process). 

    When you get something as catastrophically wrong as they did with the Correa Sweepstakes, why should we trust them to suddenly get it right next time? 

    Of course, this looks even worse now that we know how Correa ended up with the Twins in the first place. It was actually Scott Boras who approached the Twins, not the other way around. The Twins were Boras's mark right from the start. And wouldn't you know, Falvey and Levine became wooed by the shiny object -- like a star-crossed lover. 

    It's very difficult for me to see how this front office comes back from this. Sure, they'll make some trades. And by virtue of playing in MLB's weakest division, the Twins will probably have a chance to make the playoffs. But none of that absolves Falvey and Levine for this embarrassing boondoggle of an offseason. A year from now when they're formulating their new Plan A -- there's a pretty decent chance that it'll once again be the wrong Plan A.  

     

    Same mistake they made with Yu Darvish, who has been great. 

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    17 minutes ago, big dog said:

    Based on what? Some states have zero income tax, others go to a top rate as high as 13.3% (CA), and San Francisco has its own income tax, I believe 1.5%.  You apply those rates to millions of dollars, why wouldn't that be at least something to consider?

    Then why would big free agents ever sign with New York or California teams? Seriously. And they only pay taxes for games played in those states. It’s not like their entire salaries are taxed at the NY or CA rate unless they already live there. And with the money they make, they still are left with a huge amount of expendable income, comparably speaking. I live in a high tax area, and I do so willingly because of the life I have there. It’s just not a factor … and I’m not making huge amounts of money, either

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    Well, so much for the “we tried and finished second,” narrative that I knew was fraudulent from the beginning.  

    This tells me one of two things:

    1) This is one I suspected all along.  The Twins didn’t want this sign Carlos Correa.  They wanted to be in the negotiations for PR purposes, but have known from the jump they weren’t signing him.  This is why they acquired Farmer in what seemed to be a head scratcher if they were all-in on Correa.  If they wanted him badly and he wanted to come back, they could easily afford to sign him (vs. the $285).  They intentionally find an offer they know will be surpassed, and leak them to the press.

    or

    2) Correa didn’t want to come back here.  This is plausible to me also.  This franchise has loser engrained so deeply into its DNA, that he knew he had no chance of winning anything over those 10 years.  They will never take a significant risk in an attempt to bring a championship here.  It’s nothing but fear and loathing over a “bad contracts.”  Of course he’s going to publicly say he likes it here.  Doesn’t make it even remotely true.

    Maybe this was all done in good faith by both parties.  But, I just don’t see that as likely.  If so, it further demonstrates the incompetence of this Front Office to put their eggs in one basket and come up short multiple times.

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    1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

    My Waking Up to this News initial thoughts: 

    - My first reaction yesterday was that the Giants looked bad, issuing the postponement but not providing much else. Of course, they really can't say anything about the physical, and this is a great example for why teams don't like when news breaks of a player agreeing to terms (PENDING PHYSICAL)... in most cases, failure of a physical would stay quiet, private. 

    - But with this news of him heading to New York within about 5-6 hours of the Giants news, it now looks more like Correa wanted out of the Giants deal. He wants to play for a winning team. he looks at the Mets roster, the incredible starting pitching, adding bullpen arms, and the lineup, along with teaming with long-time friend Francisco Lindor and wanted to be there. Oh, and that Cohen guy is just going to keep spending. In this case, I think Correa is the one that kind of looks bad. If that's the case, he just shouldn't have committed to the Giants. However, he hadn't signed yet. 

    Just a really weird situation. 

    I'm honestly curious, where does Correa start to look bad here? Short of sabotaging his own physical (not sure how that's possible) it was SF who decided to press pause. I can certainly see a scenario where things got contentious, especially after the non-presser and news getting out, but if I'm CC, and a team that promised me $350 a week ago decided to come back talk about a lesser offer I'd probably be pissed too. 

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    Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

    I'm honestly curious, where does Correa start to look bad here? Short of sabotaging his own physical (not sure how that's possible) it was SF who decided to press pause. I can certainly see a scenario where things got contentious, especially after the non-presser and news getting out, but if I'm CC, and a team that promised me $350 a week ago decided to come back talk about a lesser offer I'd probably be pissed too. 

    Truth.

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    13 minutes ago, cjvirnig said:

    This proves definitively that the Twins were never really "in" on Correa. As the dust settles on the Carlos Correa chapter, I'm still left with one overriding question: as fans, how can we really trust the judgment of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine at this point?

    Their sin isn't coming up (woefully) short on their Plan A of signing Correa.  Rather, their sin was having a totally incorrect and unrealistic Plan A, to begin with.

     By allowing themselves to be bamboozled down a rabbit hole from which there was no escape, Falvey and Levine ruined their opportunity to make the 2023 Twins a better baseball team (and severely compromised the club's chances of competing for a division title in the process). 

    When you get something as catastrophically wrong as they did with the Correa Sweepstakes, why should we trust them to suddenly get it right next time? 

    Of course, this looks even worse now that we know how Correa ended up with the Twins in the first place. It was actually Scott Boras who approached the Twins, not the other way around. The Twins were Boras's mark right from the start. And wouldn't you know, Falvey and Levine became wooed by the shiny object -- like a star-crossed lover. 

    It's very difficult for me to see how this front office comes back from this. Sure, they'll make some trades. And by virtue of playing in MLB's weakest division, the Twins will probably have a chance to make the playoffs. But none of that absolves Falvey and Levine for this embarrassing boondoggle of an offseason. A year from now when they're formulating their new Plan A -- there's a pretty decent chance that it'll once again be the wrong Plan A.  

     

    Excellent!!

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    2 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:


    I am just glad it wasn't my one and only True Evil Empire, (the NYY), that got C4.  

    The evil empire has several franchises. NYY, NYM, LAD, Bos, Phi, LAA (even though they can't stay out of their own way), Hou. Tex, Cubs, CWS could soon join that club based on the population of their fan base, hence their TV revenue.

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    Or or or... the Twins made an offer that was very reasonable over a 10 year period. In fact, it was more per year than either the Giants or Mets offered. I also am going to give the FO credit wherein they knew he wasn't coming here without an offer that blew the other offers out of the water. Face it, we were never a long term option for Correa. We finished 3rd with him. How does signing him move us up? Without signing him does it realistically move us down in this division? He's not an answer for us, imo.

    Rodon was always bound for NYC. So he's out. Personally I would have offered Verlander 3/$120M. What an anchor and what an example for the rest of the staff. It's only 3 years and it fills a serious void. Missed opportunity imo.

     

    Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

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    51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Why shouldn't it be bandwagon? Why should people support bad teams? Bandwagon fans are closer to logical than those that support bad teams. 

    Good point Mike. Right now I am asking myself, "Self, why do you spend your time with this? Why do you have your moods affected by something over which you have no control? Isn't there a better way to spend your time?"  And just when I thought I was out, spring comes and they reel me back in ! 

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    1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    Good point Mike. Right now I am asking myself, "Self, why do you spend your time with this? Why do you have your moods affected by something over which you have no control? Isn't there a better way to spend your time?"  And just when I thought I was out, spring comes and they reel me back in ! 

    Same

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