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  • Again? The Twins Lose Carlos Correa to the Mets.


    John  Bonnes

    In a nearly unheard of reversal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post is reporting that the Carlos Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315M contract with the Mets, after his 13-year, $350M deal with the Giants fell through.

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    The middle-of-the-night deal was struck after an unknown medical concern caused the Giants to postpone their scheduled press conference to introduce the superstar shortstop. The new deal is one-year and $35M short of the deal that was in place with San Francisco.

    It is also $30M and two years more than the Minnesota Twins final offer to Carlos Correa last week, which was for 10 years and $285M. Mets owner Steve Cohen revealed that last week the Mets made an offer last week of $300M, but talks with the Giants had already advanced, so that offer was rejected. 

    The Mets had not been identified as a suitor for Correa’s services throughout most of his time on the free agent market, mostly because they are currently paying fellow superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor $341M to man the position. But last week, Lindor publicly welcomed the pursuit of Correa. It is not clear which player will play where in the infield. 

    There were never any reports of the Twins exceeding $300M of guaranteed money in any of their offers to Correa. However, the new amount that Correa excepted is seemingly much closer to the level the Twins were willing to pay. Adding $15M per year over two years (perhaps on a player option?) for Correa when he would be 38 and 39 years old is still a significant risk. But by 2033 and 2034, even the Twins' payroll could be well north of $200M given MLB’s rising salaries. It might have been risky, maybe even silly, but $15M of dead money for those two years should not have been crippling to a franchise. 

    Whether the Twins decided not to take that risk, or whether the Mets, Correa and agent Scott Boras never game them that chance, is unknown. 

    How much “risk” the contract represents to the mega-rich Mets are taking is certainly debatable. What is not debatable is just how much it is going to cost them, and it far exceeds the value of the contract. Next year, the Mets will also need to pay a 90% “tax” on the average annual value (AAV) of the deal because they are over the highest threshold of MLB’s luxury tax level for the second year in a row. 

    That means that while the Mets are paying Correa and AAV of $26.25M ($315M/12 years) they have to contribute another $23.625M to be distributed to other MLB clubs. That means their true cost is almost $50M per year for Correa, and will be for as many years as their payroll exceeds that luxury tax threshold. 

    That illustrates the difference the Twins (and all mid-market team) are having competing for top-end free agents compared to large-market (or in this case, deep-pocket) owners. While the Twins offer wasn't so much less than the Mets winning bid, Correas was worth twice as much to the Mets. Enough, in fact to overcome the severe luxury tax penalty imposed by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. 

    In reality, things haven't change much for the Twins since their situation 48 hours ago. They still are sitting with $30-40M worth of payroll room, but also with a free agent market devoid of top-end talent. But what looked like an unforeseen gift - similar to Correa falling into their laps last offseason - now looks like just another lost opportunity.  

     

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    On 12/21/2022 at 8:56 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

    There is absolutely no way I would trade anyone in our organization that has a reasonable chance to contribute to this team over the 2024-2027 time frame for any player who would a) impede the development of any of our top prospects; b) is not demonstrably a step up from what our future can provide; c) is nothing more than a temporary kick save attempt by the FO to resurrect their Mahle, Maeda and Gray strategy, or d) won’t be here for the next window.

    Guillorme may be a perfectly reasonable utility infielder for a couple years. But a platoon with Farmer will not save this season, and Guillorme is not going to be part of the long-term solution. As such, any acquisition of Guillorme should not compromise our future in any way, even if it is for a “couple of lottery tickets” - lottery tickets that may actually be more valuable to us.
     

     

    I am just going to have to agree to disagree with you on this Nash.

    Guillorme would be an upgrade at SS until Lewis is ready and buy the team time until he is completely ready to take over again. With all his time missed over the last few years, there may be rust. A month of play in 2022 is not enough to convince me he will be ready to step in full time as SS at any point in 2022. Same with Lee.

    And Guillorme is an upgrade to the roster for the next few seasons. He is an upgrade at SS until a prospect is ready and is an upgrade at backup SS and utility infielder once one of those prospects are ready. 

    I'll give up B level talent to get B level talent if the fit is better on the roster. The B level talent the Mets have is a better fit than the B level talent the Twins have creating a logjam in left handed hitting corner outfielders or mediocre SP that are likely to be decent RP.

    Because right now, If Farmer goes down for a month on April 12th, it could truly torpedo the season as there is no one on the 40 that can handle the position on a daily basis.

    I really think you are overestimating the exchange rate for a player like Guillorme. I doubt anyone the Twins would trade for him would come back to haunt them. Guillorme's just not that kind of talent. But he's a perfect fit on the Twins roster for the next few seasons.

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    1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

    I don't understand this argument. Plenty of championship teams platoon a position on the field, including the 2022 World Series Winning Astros.

    The Twins are not likely to be a very good baseball team in 2023, but that they would have a platoon at SS is not at all a reason why. 

    Why would you trade multiple assets for two players who would only be part time players, if the team isn't supposed to be very good in 2023?  

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    On 12/21/2022 at 3:11 PM, ashbury said:

    So how is that different to his bottom line than the shorthand terminology everyone else is using, that he pays tax in each state he plays? His accountant will have to fart around with a dozen or so state filings, but the net-net is that he'll pay less than the NY rate even when he signs with a NY team.

    BTW, here is an article from a professional accounting company, which probably outweighs any of the opinions we collectively may have.

    I'd also say, to another poster, that it's not always a mistake to equate our own lives to how a big-time ballplayer must look at things, but it's not an infallible guide either. People who played HS ball think they know what a major leaguer is doing; people who travel for work think they know what a major leaguer's finances must look like, etc.  (I'm sure I'm guilty of the same error when presuming to judge the FO and their business/marketing/analytic processes, because a sports franchise is fundamentally different from most businesses, so again, I'm just saying to listen when others push back, and be prepared to learn something.)

    Thanks Ash, appreciate it... that link makes it all make a heck of a lot more sense now. 

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    On 12/22/2022 at 2:25 PM, nicksaviking said:

    Why would you trade multiple assets for two players who would only be part time players, if the team isn't supposed to be very good in 2023?  

    Because the part-time player being acquired is a better fit for the Twins roster than the part-time player they would be trading away.

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