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  • Again? The Twins Lose Carlos Correa to the Mets.


    John  Bonnes

    In a nearly unheard of reversal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post is reporting that the Carlos Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315M contract with the Mets, after his 13-year, $350M deal with the Giants fell through.

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    The middle-of-the-night deal was struck after an unknown medical concern caused the Giants to postpone their scheduled press conference to introduce the superstar shortstop. The new deal is one-year and $35M short of the deal that was in place with San Francisco.

    It is also $30M and two years more than the Minnesota Twins final offer to Carlos Correa last week, which was for 10 years and $285M. Mets owner Steve Cohen revealed that last week the Mets made an offer last week of $300M, but talks with the Giants had already advanced, so that offer was rejected. 

    The Mets had not been identified as a suitor for Correa’s services throughout most of his time on the free agent market, mostly because they are currently paying fellow superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor $341M to man the position. But last week, Lindor publicly welcomed the pursuit of Correa. It is not clear which player will play where in the infield. 

    There were never any reports of the Twins exceeding $300M of guaranteed money in any of their offers to Correa. However, the new amount that Correa excepted is seemingly much closer to the level the Twins were willing to pay. Adding $15M per year over two years (perhaps on a player option?) for Correa when he would be 38 and 39 years old is still a significant risk. But by 2033 and 2034, even the Twins' payroll could be well north of $200M given MLB’s rising salaries. It might have been risky, maybe even silly, but $15M of dead money for those two years should not have been crippling to a franchise. 

    Whether the Twins decided not to take that risk, or whether the Mets, Correa and agent Scott Boras never game them that chance, is unknown. 

    How much “risk” the contract represents to the mega-rich Mets are taking is certainly debatable. What is not debatable is just how much it is going to cost them, and it far exceeds the value of the contract. Next year, the Mets will also need to pay a 90% “tax” on the average annual value (AAV) of the deal because they are over the highest threshold of MLB’s luxury tax level for the second year in a row. 

    That means that while the Mets are paying Correa and AAV of $26.25M ($315M/12 years) they have to contribute another $23.625M to be distributed to other MLB clubs. That means their true cost is almost $50M per year for Correa, and will be for as many years as their payroll exceeds that luxury tax threshold. 

    That illustrates the difference the Twins (and all mid-market team) are having competing for top-end free agents compared to large-market (or in this case, deep-pocket) owners. While the Twins offer wasn't so much less than the Mets winning bid, Correas was worth twice as much to the Mets. Enough, in fact to overcome the severe luxury tax penalty imposed by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. 

    In reality, things haven't change much for the Twins since their situation 48 hours ago. They still are sitting with $30-40M worth of payroll room, but also with a free agent market devoid of top-end talent. But what looked like an unforeseen gift - similar to Correa falling into their laps last offseason - now looks like just another lost opportunity.  

     

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    Just now, chpettit19 said:

    Just an FYI, but players pay taxes based on where they play each game. So he'll pay NY taxes for all his home games, and games against the Yankees, but the rest of his taxes are paid in the state/city where he plays road games. It's not a 1 for 1 look when comparing NY to MN.

    Also, didn’t someone say in a previous thread, that where they reside during the off-season, where they call home, they get a credit for taxes paid elsewhere when they file? 

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    1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

    Also, didn’t someone say in a previous thread, that where they reside during the off-season, where they call home, they get a credit for taxes paid elsewhere when they file? 

    I believe that depends on the state. I filed taxes in 3 different states the last couple years and, unless my tax person is stealing my credits/just not filing correctly, I didn't get any credits for the other 2 states I filed in.

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    I was and am aware that players play income taxes where they play the games, I was simplifying for purposes of the discussion. Certainly a huge extra chunk of his contract will go to New York state and city.

    This also ignores the cost of living differential.

    I am quite positive Correa establishes Florida for his home state, even though I actually have no idea where his home is.  Possibly Texas, which also has no state income tax.

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    1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

    We don't know the cash flows, but the present values of the Mets deal and Twins offer are essentially a wash when you're talking about that much money. I wonder if they circled back to the Twins, or maybe he had his heart set on NY all along.

    All of us our speculating out our proverbial frozen off season...ears...(LOL.  Got it keep it SFW.)

    1) did the Twins have a hard cap they could not go above? (High probability)
    2) did C4 really not want to come back to the Twins? (Waffle House probability)
    3) did C4 want to optimize his chance of a WS (I suggest No based on the SFG signing)
    4) Would Boras not reach back to the Twins? (Extremely low possibility as he would want to drive the prices as he could and having 2 teams interested is better than one)

    I am just glad it wasn't my one and only True Evil Empire, (the NYY), that got C4.  And the NYM spending like they are spending is a great Eye Poke to the NYY.

    Actually, surprised the Friars of SD did not sign C4 so they could have an infield line up of all SSs. ?

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    11 minutes ago, RJA said:

    We will never know what happened for sure, but my guess is that Boras checked back with the Twins after the SF deal fell through or he was told by the Twins that their last offer was truly as far as they would go.   He is too good of an agent not to explore all options. I understand everyone’s frustration with big market teams, but this deal could have been done by the Twins. It is clear that they are never going to be serious players in free agency, so I am beginning to see some advantage to a rebuild. If you can trade your best current players for top flight prospects, especially pitchers, or trade short term guys like Mahle, Gray and Maeda at the deadline for prospects, it might be possible to establish a nucleus for the next 5 years. Bitter pill I know. But maybe something to think about given the young guys we already have—and Buck!  

    Rec this.

    Don’t worry - this strategy will in all likelihood be implemented come early June.  The FO will do the best they can to see what the team with Mahle, Gray and Maeda can produce. Fair enough. If, or when, it becomes clear that won’t be successful - along with a healed Lewis and more seasoning for Lee, Julien, Martin, SWR, Varland, etc. - the rebuild toward a new multi year window will begin. 

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    I think something is being forgotten here. The Mets were willing to spend almost 50 million a year to get Correa. How much were the Mets willing to have Correa cost them between contract and fees a yr? 60 million? 70 million? At almost a 400 million dollar payroll does 10 or 20 million more a year really make a difference?

    Does anyone here think that with the Twins former top offer at 28.5 million a year that this is a bidding war they could win? 

    Their best chance to get Correa was before the SFG fiasco not after. 

    Still can't wrap my head around the fact the front office sat on their hands and then put forth an offer for their top priority so much lower than what it would realistically take to get the deal done 

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    Since day one with the Twins it was apparent that Correa was in it only for Correa.  The Twins got used from the beginning.  Shame on the FO for letting it happen.  My guess is Twins were never in on a second chance ( thankfully) just like they were really never in it originally.  He wasn't going to play for a team that doesn't appear to have winning as a main goal.  Not can the Minnesota area keep his ego propped up enough.  And yes let's stop the Correa articles.  It's old news.  He was only here for one season and had no organizational ties here.  It's done.  Get over it.

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    This really really makes me want to know what the medical issue was that effed up the deal with SF. Either it's something pretty major, in which case either this Mets deal falls apart/they're taking a massive risk, or it's not something all that significant, in which case the Giants absolutely screwed themselves. Will the leaks flow?

    It's tough for me to say what the Twins should have done here without knowing that medical issue. If the Giants made a mountain out of a molehill, then it's disappointing for the Twins to not have jumped in again with the money dropping so significantly. If it's a real thing...then do you want Correa if he's got a major medical issue?

    Wild.

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    2 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

    Shows Boras has no respect for our Front Office whiz Kids if in fact he didn't give them a 2nd chance 

    Boras has repeatedly said he doesn't go back to teams to give them a chance to top the highest bidder. Going to the Mets tracks with what was happening leading up to the Giants deal. The Mets were late to the table with a 300M+ deal. The Giants deal started to fall through, so Boras went to his next highest offer. He would have NEVER come back to the Twins, the Twins would have had to come back to him, with an offer higher than the Mets, and they'd have had to do it prior to last night. They have Boras' number, and they saw the news just as we did. Boras didn't need to spell anything out for them.

    When they didn't bump up their offer even after Bogaerts and Turner signed, Boras tried to pump them up and throw platitudes about the Twins being big shots, but the Twins never took the bait and let their offer stand, knowing it was not good enough.

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    1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    Baseball is broken. This is a horrible signing for the future of the league - particularly if the Mets, or any other of the dwindling number of franchises that can compete in this “arms race”, wins the Pennant or WS.

    This portends even greater loss of interest in professional baseball outside of a few major franchises. For the current and future fans of most of the MLB’s teams, there is very little reason to commit the time and money over years and years to a futile dream. Better just wait to jump on the bandwagon for that one season, if it ever comes, when lightning strikes and the team truly competes.

    As I have said in many of my posts, I am a “super fan” watching over 150 Twins games each year. Not this year. I have really no interest in prioritising my summer days and nights to watch our current team in this current MLB environment. My love of the game only goes so far.  Assuming I reup for the MLB package this season, maybe I’ll tune in more often later in the season when our prospects show up.

    This is how this super fan feels. It’s not just the CC signing. It’s the direction of MLB and the direction of the Twins within that dynamic. Imagine how the less committed fans will feel over time. For many franchises, the Twins most certainly included, baseball fandom will become primarily a bandwagon phenomenon. 

    Combine that with oodles of strikeouts, boom or bust hitting, zero running game, hardly any defense being played, pitchers only going 4-5 innings, too many analytics to keep track of. Yep, I'm with ya. It's just not a fun game anymore. 

    What is dumb though, is that MLB HAS to see what is going on, yet they continue to allow all this to happen, knowing full well that in a decade, there is a chance the league flat out folds. That or it is just contained to about 6 teams and the rest either fold or become AAA franchises. That is basically what they are anyway. 

     

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    33 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    While I was hopeful, yet extremely skeptical from the start, of the Twins signing Correa the Giants signing made some sense. This makes no sense to me.

    Same here. I  feel for Giants fans. [ My favorite NL team, since the demise of the Expos..]

    Such a bad look for baseball.

     

     

     

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    I'll be cheering for the Mets this year. Not because I like them and I'm happy with this situation, but because the best way to get a national discussion about revenue sharing and salary caps and floors is by having the Mets win a bought championship which is exponentially more egregious than what the Dodgers and Yankees have done in the past.

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    It's clear he preferred the Mets to the Twins for some collection of reasons, but getting more money to pass on to his great-great-grandchildren probably wasn't it. The tax situation is really complicated, but I think when you add in the NYC local income tax, the much higher property taxes (assuming he buys a place), and other costs of living, the Twins offer was at least very competitive in terms of net dollars. He also could have continued to play shortstop. That wasn't enough.

    Playing with Lindor and other big stars, chance to take a big-stage team where it hasn't been in a long time, an ego that only cared about the average gross salary and not the net, who cares, I am long past time to move on.

    I really wonder what the issue in the physical was, and what the Mets are prepared to do about it.

    I'm going to cheer for good performances from Twins players, and just give up on any realistic chance of competing. MLB risks becoming like the NBA, with a few teams grabbing superstars who want to play together and can somehow all be paid. But without a salary cap that's going to get incredibly ugly. I can't control what "my" team spends, I'm not going to get angry about it. Life's too short to be controlled by what various rich people do with their toys, which make them billions of dollars in taxpayer-subsidized Sports Cathedrals. Screw it.

     

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    1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Weren't the Mets the same team that passed on Paddock because of his medical report? Either they view the Correa issue totally different than SF (not impossible,) they're desperate for that "final piece," to get them over the hump, or maybe SF actually got cold feet. Either way it's pretty wild. What was your favorite CC Giants moment?

    Maybe, but here is the difference. Paddack is a nothing even when he is fully healthy. At best a #5 starter or swingman. They flat out probably just didn't care, because, well he is a mid level at best starting pitcher.

    Correa, yes the money is crazy, but you are getting a top 2-3 SS when signing him. Big difference.

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    59 minutes ago, Trov said:

    The Twins if offered a chance could have matched the Mets number for sure, the question is where they given that chance and declined. 

    It would not have mattered though and you know it. It is not enough for the Twins to "match" real contenders on deals like this. Heck, it isn't enough just to beat them. They have to blow them out of the water to convince a star player to come here.

     

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    C'mon folks, if given the chance, why on earth would he want to be here when given the chance to play for the Mets? Contract length was longer, gets to play in New York, and is on a World Series caliber team ready to win now with an owner willing to do whatever it takes. Easy, easy choice. Wish Carlos all the best!

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    What if the SF doctors are right?  What if CC will break down sooner or later due to whatever condition is now "known"? With guaranteed money this contract is much too large for any fiscally responsible team. IMO the Twins not only dodged a bullet, they dodged a bomb.

    On the other hand, what if the SF doctors are wrong? What? Really? Of course I'm not a doctor, but to me, it seems this is not a black or white case of he is broken/he is not broken (or all doctors would be in agreement)  but more he is likely to break, which is debatable. But say CC is fine, and the doctors are wrong, how/why could that be? Could it be that the SF FO has buyers remorse? They found out how much they overpaid and want out of the agreement? This mean they would have to collude with the doctors to find a way. This is not an accusation, merely a wild thought. But wild situations lead to wild thoughts.

    Bottom line: the possibility that CC might have a medical issue makes me glad the Twins did not sign him to a mega deal, and if they Mets also fail him I would only take him on a non-guaranteed, performance based contract.

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    We are more than a quality SS away from being competitive. Just a bad look for our genius's running the team hoping that most fans are naïve enough to believe that they are trying to field a quality team. 

    I despise the big market teams that attempt to buy a championship and love watching the likes of the Dodgers, Yankees , Mets choke annually. There is no doubt smaller market teams are at a disadvantage, but well run organizations can compete... unfortunately it's not the Twins. Look no further than St. Louis similar size city and market and they have fielded competitive teams for the most part for the last 30 years. But that takes competent long and short term planning and a commitment from the owners. Not happening here.   

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    On 12/21/2022 at 7:51 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

    Whom would you move - someone in whom the Mets might realistically have an interest - to effect this trade for this budding utility infielder?

    As I stated before NYM should be motivated to move Guillorme which means they should accept any 2 low lottery tickets for this veteran frustrated SS that has subbed Lindor at SS for a few years. A place where Correa now fills. Guillorme is worth much more than a couple of low lottery tickets, to fill our chasm at SS.

    There are many scenarios, if the Twins would be interested in Carrasco they'd give up 1 very low lottery ticket.

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    More evidence we were played by Correa. (or maybe he got his fill of juice Lucie's). 

    Baseball has been broken for decades. Nothing new here.

    The big issue is what showed up during the physical that caused Correa to take 35 million left. This is why I don't like huge long term contracts. Personally, I believe the Mets are rolling the dice. But who knows, maybe Correa doesn't pass the Met's physical. if so would you want the Twins to lay out what they offered Correa. 

    I moved on from Correa days ago. I'd rather wait for Lewis and Lee ..

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    However, the new amount that Correa [accepted] is seemingly much closer to the level the Twins were willing to pay. Adding $15M per year over two years (perhaps on a player option?) for Correa when he would be 38 and 39 years old is still a significant risk. But by 2033 and 2034, even the Twins' payroll could be well north of $200M given MLB’s rising salaries. It might have been risky, maybe even silly, but $15M of dead money for those two years should not have been crippling to a franchise.

    Bingo.

    Whether the Twins decided not to take that risk, or whether the Mets, Correa and agent Scott Boras never game them that chance, is unknown. 

    My guess, just a guess, is that this turn of events had much less to do with the Twins being hesitant about the risk than with the Mets being aggressive and opportunistic with the opening that the Giants hiccup provided.
    That doesn't excuse the Twins for not being more aggressive if they were even possibly willing to take the risk.

    As the Mets are sort of my second team, I guess I could enjoy this development - but more than anything I'm bummed that the Twins weren't the team to capitalize, and the Mets' approach is starting to teeter from "being aggressive to try to win more" to "buying a superteam" in a way that almost starts to remove the fun.

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    3 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

    Correa, yes the money is crazy, but you are getting a top 2-3 SS when signing him. Big difference.

    It is easy to understand why the Mets signed Correa to a contract that will cost them $50+ million due to the tax penalty in 2023 alone - Cohen can and so he does. 

    What is more interesting is that Correa has chosen to leave his career as a shortstop,  top five in baseball at that position. Correa will not be a top five third baseman. Machado, Arenado, Ramirez, Riley, and Bregman off the top of my head are all superior players to Correa at 3rd base. It isn't just money, Correa wants to win and saw Cohen as the best chance to win. That has to be the answer. This also tells us that Falvey needed to trade Correa last July after giving an the Twins best offer, that would have been rejected. If Correa's contract included a firm no trade, it should never have been given. There are times to give a no trade and times when it is obvious not to. A team needs the flexibility to improve their team via trades. Learning is a lifetime tool.

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    13 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

    Correa, yes the money is crazy, but you are getting a top 2-3 SS when signing him. Big difference.

    Actually, they'll be getting an above average 3B. They're going to pay $50M this season to upgrade from Eduardo Escobar to Correa at 3B, That's only a 3-4 win upgrade. They're turning the best SS in baseball into the 5th best 3B.

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    1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    Baseball is broken. This is a horrible signing for the future of the league - particularly if the Mets, or any other of the dwindling number of franchises that can compete in this “arms race”, wins the Pennant or WS.

    This portends even greater loss of interest in professional baseball outside of a few major franchises. For the current and future fans of most of the MLB’s teams, there is very little reason to commit the time and money over years and years to a futile dream. Better just wait to jump on the bandwagon for that one season, if it ever comes, when lightning strikes and the team truly competes.

    As I have said in many of my posts, I am a “super fan” watching over 150 Twins games each year. Not this year. I have really no interest in prioritising my summer days and nights to watch our current team in this current MLB environment. My love of the game only goes so far.  Assuming I reup for the MLB package this season, maybe I’ll tune in more often later in the season when our prospects show up.

    This is how this super fan feels. It’s not just the CC signing. It’s the direction of MLB and the direction of the Twins within that dynamic. Imagine how the less committed fans will feel over time. For many franchises, the Twins most certainly included, baseball fandom will become primarily a bandwagon phenomenon. 

    Agreed - this is simply bad for baseball.  A hard cap needs to be put in place asap or there will only be 6 fan bases that have anything to look forward to.

    I used to cheer for the Mets when compared to the Yankees and how they've treated the Twins in my lifetime.  Now I can only hope all big market teams lose and lose big every year until the system is fixed.

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