6 Ways to Determine 2021 Draft Order Without 2020 Season

Let’s look at a few options:

1) Based on previous three years’ win total

What might be the “simplest” idea in terms of calculating, the draft order could be ordered by reverse win totals over the previous three season. It would result in this order:

1 Tigers (58.33)

2 Orioles (58.67)

t3 Marlins (65.67)

t3 Royals (65.67)

5 White Sox (67.00)

6 Padres (69.00)

7 Reds (70.00)

8 Giants (71.33)

9 Blue Jays (72.00)

10 Rangers (74.33)

11 Pirates (75.33)

12 Phillies (75.67)

13 Angels (77.33)

14 Mets (77.67)

15 Mariners (78.33)

16 Rockies (83.00)

17 Braves (86.33)

t18 D-backs (86.67)

t18 Rays (86.67)

20 Cardinals (87.33)

21 Twins (88.00)

22 Athletics (89.67)

t23 Brewers (90.33)

t23 Cubs (90.33)

25 Nationals (90.67)

26 Red Sox (95.00)

27 Indians (95.33)

28 Yankees (98.00)

29 Dodgers (100.67)

30 Astros (103.67)

Repeat.

My preference (of the six ideas): 6. It’s too simple. Literally no one is doing anything right now, so there has to be a better idea than the most basic idea.

2) Basic lottery

When the 1994 NHL season didn’t happen due to a lockout, the 1995 NHL Draft used a pretty basic lottery idea to determine draft order. MLB could employ a similar strategy. Teams would be weighted based on making the playoffs between 2017-2019, and first overall picks in the last four drafts (2017-2020). Teams that had not made the playoffs nor selected first overall received three lottery balls. If a team made the playoff once or had a first overall pick, they received two lottery balls. All other teams got one lottery ball.

Three balls (13 teams): Angels, Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Reds, Royals, White Sox

Two balls (5): Cardinals, D-backs, Orioles, Rays, Tigers

One ball (12): Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, Nationals, Red Sox, Rockies, Twins, Yankees

After a team had a ball drawn, they could not receive another pick. All odd-numbered rounds followed this same order. Even-numbered rounds were reversed, resulting in a snake-style draft.

My preference (of the six ideas): 3. It’s a really good, workable idea. In fact, it worked the last time an idea like this was needed.

3) Complex lottery

This would be similar to the previous idea, but would determine the Top 50 picks. There would be no competitive balance picks, though compensatory picks could be added after the Top 50. Round 2 would begin after the first 50 picks and the compensatory round and would use the first model to determine the order of selection for the remainder of the draft.

The intrigue with this model is that teams could end up with between zero and five picks in the Top 50 selections. How many balls you end up with in the hopper would be determined as follows:

-All teams get one (30 balls)

-Teams that typically receive a Competitive Balance pick (teams who received shared revenue) get an additional ball. (14 balls)

-Teams that drafted in the Top 10 over the last three seasons (excluding compensation picks) would receive another ball or balls. (30 balls; up to 3 per team)

This would result in 74 balls, 24 of which would not be chosen. The top 20 picks would be protected (could not be traded or lost to free agent signings). If you have one or zero picks in the Top 50, your first pick is protected (cannot be lost due a free agent signing). Picks 21-50 (and their assigned pick value) could be traded.

The reveal would definitely be televised and the hopper breakdown would look as follows:

Five balls (1 team): Padres

Four balls (6): Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Reds, Royals, Tigers

Three balls (5): Athletics, Blue Jays, Giants, Rockies, White Sox

Two balls (12): Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Twins

One ball (6): Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox, Yankees

The Twins would have a 2.7% chance of receiving the first pick. All teams chances to select first would be between 1.4% and 6.8%. That seems fair.

My preference (of the six ideas): 2. I actually love this idea. A lot.

4) Based on three years’ spending pools

Teams that had less success, lost players that resulted in draft compensation or are in a smaller market end up with larger draft pools. On the flip side, good teams, those who signed the best free agents or are in larger markets, end up with smaller draft pools. This idea takes the average of what teams spent in 2018 and 2019 with their bonus pools in 2020. Calculating the order this way would have similar results to the first idea, though this weighs recency a little heavier (as draft pools increase year-by-year -- until 2020). It would result in the following order:

1 Royals ($14,085,600)

2 Tigers ($13,219,633)

3 Orioles ($12,962,833)

4 Marlins ($12,322,500)

5 Padres ($12,148,843)

6 White Sox ($11,327,667)

7 Pirates ($11,146,000)

8 Giants ($11,009,767)

9 Rays ($10,837,800)

10 D-backs ($10,288,300)

11 Blue Jays ($9,917,700)

12 Rangers ($9,751,567)

13 Reds ($9,734,733)

14 Mariners ($9,430,533)

15 Mets ($9,213,579)

16 Indians ($9,010,388)

17 Rockies ($8,951,000)

18 Phillies ($8,619,167)

19 Cardinals ($8,468,033)

20 Angels ($8,267,200)

21 Braves ($7,720,200)

22 Cubs ($7,643,917)

23 Athletics ($7,631,333)

24 Red Sox ($7,526,900)

25 Twins ($7,464,900)

26 Brewers ($7,154,233)

27 Nationals ($7,031,793)

28 Dodgers ($6,888,980)

29 Yankees ($6,865,100)

30 Astros ($5,020,866)

My preference (of the six ideas): 5. Gets the nod over option 1 due to the weight of recent results.

5) Organizational record

Somehow combining both major- and minor-league records over a number of years may give a more accurate look at organizational talent. How you weigh wins at each level would make this a very complex exercise.

My preference (of the six ideas): 4. It might be the best way… but would be very, very complicated.

6) Owner blind bid

This is my favorite (and also the least likely) option. Create a TV event that includes all 30 owners and each owner takes a turn revealing a donation to a charity of their (or MLB's) (or by fan vote!) choice. (Bids would obviously have to be revealed to MLB prior to the live event.) Those donations are put in order, from greatest to least, and that’s the draft order. Want to call the owners cheap? This is your chance!

Competitive Balance and compensatory picks would still be included and starting in round two, draft order would have to revert to using one of the other ideas.

My preference (of the six ideas): 1. But it would NEVER happen.

What do you think? Would you go with one of these options or is there a better idea out there?