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  • 4 Right-Handed Relievers the Twins Should Target Before the Trade Deadline


    Matthew Trueblood

    As good as Minnesota’s pitching depth is, injuries have already stretched and tested it. It would be wise to explore picking up one of these four guys, to give the club a bit more of a cushion.

    Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

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    You can never have too much pitching, and in a season in which the playoffs will be expanded and injuries are more common than ever, you can certainly never have too much relief pitching. For a Twins team staring down an AL postseason gauntlet of right-leaning lineups like those of the Yankees, Astros, White Sox, and Blue Jays, an extra right-hander in the bullpen could make an especially big difference.

    The Twins have a quartet of reliable right-handed relievers at the back end of their bullpen, in Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Sergio Romo, and Tyler Clippard. However, since the beginning of the season, Cody Stashak and Zack Littell have been hampered by injuries; Randy Dobnak has been pressed into full-time starting duty; and Jorge Alcala and Matt Wisler have proved to be electric, but not necessarily consistent.

    If further injuries were to diminish the team down the stretch—and it’s not as though May has a spotless health track record, and Romo and Clippard are suspect based purely on age—the team might suddenly face a surprising deficit of relief depth. Here are four guys who could solve that problem before it arises, and who would make the bullpen tangibly better even if everyone stays healthy.

    Chris Stratton, Pittsburgh Pirates: A 2012 first-round pick by the Giants, Stratton has always seemed to be a bit less than the sum of his parts. He was a starter in the San Francisco farm system, and pitched in their rotation at the big-league level for about a year and a half, but after being dealt to the Angels last March, he put up an 8.59 ERA in five starts and two relief appearances.

    In mid-May, the Angels sold Stratton’s contract to the Pirates, who made him a full-time reliever. Ever since, there have been signs of major progress. In 61 innings out of the Pittsburgh bullpen, Stratton has 65 strikeouts and 20 walks, and his DRA- of 80 suggests he’s been 20 percent better than an average pitcher overall.

    More importantly, and more excitingly, there’s reason to hope for even more from him. The move to relief has allowed Stratton to add about 1.5 miles per hour on his fastball, which now sits at 93.3, and mechanically, there are things the Twins could do to safely push him even higher. Not only that, but Stratton’s average spin rate on the pitch is 2,609 revolutions per minute. Stratton is a spin monster. His curveball and slider also have elite raw spin rates.

    So far, though, Stratton rates poorly on Active Spin leaderboards, indicating that he’s not getting much of the movement he could be getting from that spin. Again, mechanically, there are ways to shore up that shortcoming. Even in the meantime, though, the stuff is distinctly playing up, leading to a great strikeout rate and consistently weak contact by opponents.

    There are non-mechanical changes Stratton can still make, too. He’s still throwing his fastball more than he would if the Twins were to bring him in, especially against left-handed batters. His changeup is missing bats at a very high rate, but he’s not trusting it much. His curve is a fourth pitch right now, with his slider having taken a big step forward, and the wise thing to do might be to shelve the curve until the offseason and have him lean more on the slider and change.

    Under team control through 2023, Stratton wouldn’t be a rental arm. He could step right into Trevor May’s role in 2021, and could do many of the things May and Romo are doing for the team even this year. The price tag wouldn’t be exorbitant, though, because his results don’t yet speak to his full potential in this role, and because the Pirates are eagerly and aggressively rebuilding.

    Daniel Bard, Colorado Rockies: If Stratton’s path to this point seems serpentine, it’s nothing compared to that of Bard. After years in the pitching wilderness, his career derailed by the yips, Bard has reasserted his dominance as the Rockies’ closer in his first big-league action since 2013.

    There’s much less tinkering to do with Bard than there could be with Stratton. He throws 98 miles per hour, has a wicked slider, and will also mix in a changeup, but his usages of each pitch are already nearly optimal, and although he rates low on active spin, he’s not a candidate for a mechanical overhaul—for multiple reasons.

    What Bard can be, though, is an immediately dominant reliever and a no-questions-asked incumbent as the setup man in 2021. He’s under team control for two more years after this one, and his track record suggests so much risk (what if his control deserts him again?) that his price tag should be fairly low. The Rockies will be sellers at the deadline; they’re in freefall. It’s just a matter of whether they hear an offer that gets them interested enough to deal Bard, rather than hold onto him.

    Félix Peña, Los Angeles Angels: Much has been made of the Twins’ increased reliance on sliders this season, but the Angels put them to shame. Anaheim has been the slider capital of MLB for a few years now, not in terms of effectiveness, but in terms of sheer volume. Peña is one excellent example: he throws his slider about 35 percent of the time, often using it to set up his sinker, rather than vice-versa.

    Used as a swingman and a long reliever at various points over his three-year career, Peña has blossomed despite uncertainty about his role. He has a career DRA- of 87, marking him as clearly above-average, and this year is shaping up to be his best. Batters whiff on over half their swings against that slider, and while his sinker doesn’t miss bats the way one might hope, it hums in at 94 miles per hour and tends to avoid the barrels of opponents’ bats.

    Like Stratton, Peña is under team control through 2023. The Angels are a team in a very strange position, though, and might prefer to get back a similar pitcher further from free agency, or take a chance on a pair of prospects, rather than hold a solid middle reliever without much upside.

    Mychal Givens, Baltimore Orioles: Against right-handed batters, Givens is a monster. Though he stands not much taller than Romo, Givens weighs about 70 pounds more, and throws from a similar arm angle. That is to say, he comes down the mound with good posture, and is far from being a submariner, but his arm angle is essentially sidearm. From that slot, and with his excellent extension at release, his 94-MPH heat (which can rise to 97 when he’s going for a big strikeout) looks much faster.

    As most hurlers with deliveries like that do, Givens struggles against opposite-handed batters. Lefties have hit him for power since the start of 2019. In fact, he’s a bit more prone to hard contact in the air than would be ideal, even against righties. He strikes out more than enough batters to be a qualified late-inning arm, though, and because he leans heavily on his fastball against righties, he’s become a more consistent presence than he used to be.

    The Twins might ask Givens to try throwing his slider more, against both lefties and righties. The pitch does miss bats, but he doesn’t use it much, and particularly buries it against lefties. If he could get comfortable going to it more often, he would be less vulnerable to power. As a team, the Twins have helped multiple pitchers clear the mental hurdles to using breaking balls against opposite-handed batters since Wes Johnson came in. In fact, they’ve also gotten multiple guys to throw more changeups to same-handed batters, and Givens’s changeup could add a nice extra dimension for him against righties, too.

    Unlike the hurlers about, Givens is due to be a free agent after 2021. The Orioles have a dwindling number of chances to deal him, and rental relievers tend to fetch little at the deadline, so they’re likely to be active listeners until Monday afternoon. If the Twins make a move, Givens would insure them against injuries to any of their top righties, slide in opposite Clippard (with his notable reverse splits) in a middle-relief role, and make it less important that Littell and/or Stashak regain full health and effectiveness in 2020. They’d also have a solid setup arm for next year.

    ***

    Over four pieces, I’ve recommended 14 players on whom the Twins should at least inquire before Monday’s deadline. None are stars, but all of them are good fits for the team’s apparent needs, and most look like average-plus players with upside of one kind or another. Eleven of them are under team control beyond this season. Three teams have two players each in the group: the Giants, with Donovan Solano and Tony Watson; the Orioles, with Hanser Alberto and Givens; and the Pirates, with Erik González and Stratton. That creates the possibility that the Twins could do some one-stop shopping, and give up something substantial only in return for upgrading multiple roster spots and having control of at least one good player beyond 2020.

    Personally, I’m intrigued most by González and Stratton, and think the Twins should check in regularly with the Pirates through Monday afternoon to see if a chance to scoop them up materializes. Failing that, though, there are many ways for the team to subtly improve, positioning themselves better for the seeding fight that will be September and giving them more ways to win series once they reach the playoffs. They can be aggressive, without giving up players to whom the fan base is overly attached.

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    Rosenthal if possible. Is there a possible trade thread? I posted this in the future transactions thread, I'll put it here for your viewing entertainment:

     

    Given Garver's injury and hitting woes and Avila's injury and hitting woes, any chance the Twins will try to get Jason Castro back from the Angels? I live in LA and the Angels are rightfully desperate for pitching. They also seem willing to part with Brian Goodwin, a quality 3rd/4th OF who can play CF, although he does hit LH. Still Goodwin is a .786 career OPS guy, over .800 this year, and would be an offensive and defensive upgrade over Cave and Wade. Maybe there's a deal to trade a young pitcher(s) for Castro and Goodwin to help this year. Both are on expiring contracts so you would think the price won't be too high and you wouldn't block someone like Jeffers or the younger OFs for next year unless we really wanted to keep one of them at the end of the year. Also, the Angels will need a SS next year if they don't re-sign Simmons and need catching help.

     

    Here's my proposal:

     

    Twins get: Jason Castro, Brian Goodwin

    Angels get: Dakota Chalmers or Josh Winder, Jamir Camargo, PTBNL (High A to AA pitcher, good but not top propect) or substitute Gordon for Camargo and the PTBNL

    Immediate value for the Twins, future value for the Angels. The PTBNL can be a longer shot with more upside or more immediuate but lesser help. Discount value of Castro and Goodwin since they are potentially one year (month) rentals.

    What do you guys think? 

     

     

    Rosenthal if possible. Is there a possible trade thread? I posted this in the future transactions thread, I'll put it here for your viewing entertainment:

     

    Given Garver's injury and hitting woes and Avila's injury and hitting woes, any chance the Twins will try to get Jason Castro back from the Angels? I live in LA and the Angels are rightfully desperate for pitching. They also seem willing to part with Brian Goodwin, a quality 3rd/4th OF who can play CF, although he does hit LH. Still Goodwin is a .786 career OPS guy, over .800 this year, and would be an offensive and defensive upgrade over Cave and Wade. Maybe there's a deal to trade a young pitcher(s) for Castro and Goodwin to help this year. Both are on expiring contracts so you would think the price won't be too high and you wouldn't block someone like Jeffers or the younger OFs for next year unless we really wanted to keep one of them at the end of the year. Also, the Angels will need a SS next year if they don't re-sign Simmons and need catching help.

     

    Here's my proposal:

     

    Twins get: Jason Castro, Brian Goodwin

    Angels get: Dakota Chalmers or Josh Winder, Jamir Camargo, PTBNL (High A to AA pitcher, good but not top propect) or substitute Gordon for Camargo and the PTBNL

    Immediate value for the Twins, future value for the Angels. The PTBNL can be a longer shot with more upside or more immediuate but lesser help. Discount value of Castro and Goodwin since they are potentially one year (month) rentals.

    What do you guys think? 

    I wouldn't give up a top 30 prospect for two rental backups.

     

    Especially with this year's playoff format because it's not about the pennant race as much as what happens in the postseason itself.

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