3 Signings to Make the Second the Lockout Ends

On 2/19/2022 at 8:06 AM, mike8791 said:

But have these 3 moves really moved the needle?  Story would be a major addition but his salary would preclude this org. from spending on their area of biggest need(by far) - starting pitching.  If Kikuchi was our major add, this is still a bottom 5 rotation.  We need at least two better than average starters.  Rodon, despite the injury risks, clearly stands as the premier target.  A #2 could be added by trade.  For #3, I like Kim and then Pineda.  A Kikuchi-level starter could be thrown into the mix to compete with Bundy, Ryan and Ober for bottom two spots.

Story's signing would squander resources needed for pitching.  Don't forget, if Twins did pull off a trade for an A's or Red's starter to slot as a #2, they would almost have to be ready to extend the contract of said pitcher, given the haul it would take to pry one of these guys loose.  Unlikely the team budget allows for top 2 pitching additions plus Story.  Fortunately, this offense looks strong enough on paper to contend with the needed rotation additions so Story would be a luxury we could ill afford.

I,too, like Rodriguez as an inexpensive pen addition, but his add alone wouldn't turn this bullpen into a plus.  A Tepera-like signing would also be needed.  I still cling to hope the Twins can contend in 2022 but not if their biggest pitching add is Kikuchi.

Why would anyone think the Twins would extend any pitcher they traded for? Unless that pitcher is willing to take a very team friendly deal I just don't see how anyone could think the Twins would extend them. They didn't extend Berrios and they didn't just pay for a FA. Why would we think they're going to trade legit prospects and then pay money to extend them when they wouldn't do it for Berrios or any of the FAs?

There are no pitchers worthy of big money left on the market. Not signing Story more than likely means they just aren't going to spend to the same place they have been the last few years. They don't have enough openings to sign a bunch of guys and add them to the 40-man. The White Sox wouldn't risk Rodon accepting a 1 year, 18.4M qualifying offer so I don't know why other teams would be thinking he's worth that, or more, when the team who knows him the best and is trying to win a World Series wasn't willing to even give him the QA. Story is the only player left on the market that would make sense to spend on and is even remotely possible. 

22 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

Story???   RUN WAY!!!!!  hsi home/away splits are HORRIBLE!!!  Home = .972 OPS, Away = .752    His OPS+ home = 124 (or 24% better than average SS)  away = 76 (or 24% WORSE than average SS).  at home his K rate is 28%  on the road it is 34%.  The ONLY reason you sign Story is if it is a 1 year deal and we have plans to trade him at the deadline should one of our prospects prove ready.

It's been proven time and time again that home road splits for Colorado players don't mean anything. Arenado had some gnarly home road splits too, but I'm pretty sure St Louis is more than happy with his gold glove, 121 OPS+ performance for them last year. The home/road splits for Colorado players can basically be completely thrown out. It's easier to find hits in Colorado because there's so much extra OF grass, but it's harder to hit on the road when breaking balls move different. There's plenty of data to show that the first 3 games after playing in Colorado leads to worse hitting for every team (so teams who play a series in Col and then go to another place to play also hit worse the first few games as they adjust). Story is by no means a sure thing, but his home/road splits aren't the concern.

On 2/19/2022 at 4:42 PM, AceWrigley said:

Sign lefty starter Kwang Hyun Kim for 2 years at total $8M. 

Sign reliever Rich Rodriguez for 2 years at total $3.4M.

Trade pitcher Matt Canterino and outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez to the Rays for shortstop Taylor Walls.

If the Twins trade the guy who may have the most upside of any of their pitching prospects and a guy who's probably top 3 in ceiling for their position player prospects for Taylor Walls I'll never watch another Twins game in my life. That would be an epic overpay.

On 2/19/2022 at 1:01 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

Ok so it may or may not cost a few bucks more either for Story and/or to move JD.  I agree that signing Story likely means a JD trade - however, not because the Pohlads are cheap, but because the owners and FO know that ‘22 is most likely a repositioning year given our projected starting staff.

The real issue is that none of Lewis, Martin or Miranda may actually be a major league shortstop - let alone a major leaguer (although I expect all three to be solid MLers).  Miranda and Martin aren’t even really in the SS discussion. If Lewis does pan out at SS then you have the proverbial rich man’s problem. The more likely scenario is that in ‘23 all three of these prospects are starting at other positions -  3B (Miranda) and corner OF on either side of Buxton (Martin and Lewis) with Story at SS, Polanco at 2B and Kiriloff at 1B.

Lewis is probably the biggest risk at this point to be anywhere in the lineup in ‘23, let alone SS.

Sign Story and get Miller ready over the next four years as the heir apparent at SS.

I'm confused by this idea that signing Story likely means a JD trade. There's no financial reason why the Twins would have to trade JD if they sign Story. There's nobody left on the pitching market who's going to cost massive amounts of money and they have plenty of payroll left before they even get close to what the payrolls have been the last few years. I actually agree with how you list their future positions, but I don't get why that'd mean they need to trade JD. He plays 3B and DHs this year as Miranda gets his feet wet at some point. Sano leaves after this season and JD is primary DH with some stints at 3B to give Miranda a day off here and there throughout 2023. 

35 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

I thought so myself but used Baseball Trade Values website and it had the Twins as a slight underpay (pffft) and just went with it to post here as something to talk about cuz it's not like we have any actual baseball activity to talk about other than minor league signings. I mean, they have Sano at minus 7.1 median trade value . . . really? I like Walls as a possible shortstop; maybe they would take Sano for Walls?

I don't mind the idea of Walls as a possible SS, but I wouldn't give up anything of real value for him. I would even view Sano for Walls as selling very low on Sano. Walls is a fine player, but certainly no franchise SS and is probably best suited for a utility glove role. If they're sold on Royce being able to stick at SS I'd be happy with Walls being the bridge SS, but if Royce isn't that guy then I'd prefer they shoot much higher than Walls with whoever they're bringing in to play SS.