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  • 2016 Roster Projections: The Relief Pitchers


    Seth Stohs

    We finished looking at the roster projections through the Minnesota Twins hitters from the big leagues to the extended spring training rosters last week. We projected the starting pitchers on Tuesday. Today we conclude the roster projections by looking at the relief pitchers in the Twins organization.

    Of course, signings or trades can change these projections, so they are as of right now. There may be injuries around spring training, so these are certainly subject to change. It can be very difficult to project rosters for bullpens. First, with all of the minor league signings, there are too many pitchers for roster spots. There may be some releases, or the Disabled Lists can be used rather liberally. Finally, starters who don’t make starting rotations can be moved to the bullpen. But we’ll attempt this.

    Image courtesy of Frank Victores, USA Today

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    Are there any prospects with the potential to be impact players down the line? Read on and see what you think, and then let’s discuss below in the comments.

    MAJOR LEAGUES

    Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Fernando Abad, Ricky Nolasco, Michael Tonkin

    Arguably the biggest area of concern for the big league club as we look to the 2016. Quite possibly the biggest question mark heading into spring training. When healthy, Glen Perkins has proven to be one of the better relievers in all of baseball. Can he stay healthy for the full season? Kevin Jepsen came to the Twins at the deadline, and he became the most reliable option for the Twins bullpen. Can he continue at that level? Trevor May certainly has the stuff and the demeanor to be a bullpen guy, but is that his role for good going forward? However, in this group of three, the Twins have the makings of a very dominant back-end of the bullpen.

    When healthy, Casey Fien has been good in the bullpen for the Twins but he hasn’t been healthy the last season and a half. Only 20% of his arbitration contract isn’t guaranteed. So, he’ll need to be ready right in spring training. Michael Tonkin has been very good in AAA the last several years. He has been called up to the Twins many time. He is now out of options. Does that guarantee him a job? Not necessarily. Fernando Abad is a very intriguing minor league signing as Parker noted yesterday. He has the ability to be good, but last year he was very non-good. Can it completely be blamed on tipping pitches? And then there is Ricky Nolasco. If he has a strong camp, could he start? If not, how will he respond physically, mentally and emotionally to being in the bullpen?

    Other Contenders: Taylor Rogers, Aaron Thompson, Brandon Kintzler

    MINOR LEAGUES

    Rochester Red Wings

    Ryan Pressly, Brandon Kintzler, Alex Meyer, JR Graham, Ryan O’Rourke, Aaron Thompson, Alex Wimmers, Cole Johnson

    Others: Jason Adam, Dan Runzler, David Martinez

    As usual, AAA players tend to be pretty familiar names. Most of them have some time in the big leagues, maybe even more. Ryan Pressly was pitching well for the Twins when his season came to an end with injury. He’ll certainly compete for a big league job in spring training. So will veteran Brandon Kintzler who has spent several big league seasons with the Brewers' big league bullpen. He was hurt and missed much of the 2015 season. The Twins signed him on a minor league deal. JR Graham spent all of 2015 with the Twins, but that’s because he had to or the Twins would have likely lost him to Atlanta thanks to Rule 5 rules. He’ll likely head to AAA to start the season as Pressly did a year ago, but get an opportunity to work his way back. Alex Meyer made the move to the bullpen, saw a quick debut in late June and struggled, but he did end fairly strong and we should see plenty of him in 2016 as well. Ryan O’Rourke made his debut in 2015 and showed that he can get left-handers out. He’s a good guy to have around and will also get a shot out of spring training. If used correctly, he has a lot of value. Aaron Thompson was the surprise name from last spring training but he earned an Opening Day spot. After a strong first five weeks, he really struggled for the next six weeks before being sent down. He was DFAd but re-signed with the Twins this offseason. All of these could very well see big league time.

    Chattanooga Lookouts

    Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Brandon Peterson, Trevor Hildenberger, Corey Williams, Mason Melotakis, Alex Muren

    Others: Tim Shibuya, Brian Gilbert, Luke Westphal, Todd Van Steensel, Marcus Walden, Buddy Boshers, Raul Fernandez, Matt Summers.

    There will be some serious talent starting the season in the Lookouts bullpen, and several of these could move up to AAA and even the big leagues relatively quickly. Burdi and Reed started 2015 with the Lookouts but struggled and went back to Ft. Myers. They both ended the season with a Southern League championship and then an Arizona Fall League championship. For both, if they have control, they could move up quick. Hildenberger was also on that AFL roster. He was our Minor League Reliever of the Year. He began in Cedar Rapids before moving up to the Miracle. Peterson was our reliever of the year in 2014. He was just as good in 2015 between the Miracle and the Lookouts. Corey Williams and Mason Melotakis are two hard-throwing southpaws. Both missed a season after Tommy John surgery. Williams missed 2014 and returned in June. Melotakis missed all of 2015 but rumors from Ft. Myers had him hitting 97 mph at Instructs, so he’ll be at about 19 months since surgery by opening day, so he could be ready much sooner.

    You also obviously noticed that there are lots of pitchers in that “Other” category. Trying to predict bullpens in the minor leagues is pretty much impossible. The “Others” group has some strong talent in it. Summers throws 95+. Boshers has a big league spring training invite. Shibuya stayed healthy and pitched at three levels.Van Steensel has put up terrific numbers the last two years. These guys should be on rosters. The point of this paragraph is two-fold. First and foremost, I would expect that there will be a lot of pitchers in the upper levels who start the season on the “Disabled List” ready to contribute at the AA or AAA level when someone is hurt or promoted.

    Ft. Myers Miracle

    Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Yorman Landa, Michael Cederoth, Randy LeBlanc, Mike Theofanopoulos, Zach Tillery, Jared Wilson, Cameron Booser

    Few knew the name Yorman Landa before he was added to the Twins 40-man roster in November - unless you follow Twins Daily, of course. Fully healthy, he reaches into the upper-90s. Speaking of finally healthy, Luke Bard was healthy in 2015.He put together a solid season. He throws hard and has sharp secondary stuff. I think he takes off in 2016. Nick Anderson is 25, from Brainerd and Mayville State, and the Twins signed him late last year out of the independent leagues. He was the Kernels closer through their playoff run. Cederoth started for the Kernels last year, but it may be time for him to move to the bullpen.Cameron Booser, like Cederoth, can hit 99 regularly. Booser is a lefty and his season ended with shoulder surgery. LeBlanc and Tillery pitched well as long-relievers and starters for the 2015 Kernels.

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Kuo-Hua Lo, Miles Nordgren, Logan Lombana, Jose Abreu, Anthony McIver, Alex Robinson, Tyler Stirewalt

    After three years in E-Town (Where he was the Appy League reliever of the year last year), Kuo-Hua Lo will move up to the Kernels. Nordgren saw a little time with the Kernels, in the bullpen, Alex Robinson was the Twins 5th round pick out of Maryland last year. The lefty has hit 96 at times. If he has any control, he can dominate.. Logan Lombana (25th) and Anthony McIver (15th) were 2015 draft picks out of college. They ate a lot of innings out of the bullpen for Elizabethton in 2015. Stirewalt was drafted as an athlete who could throw 95. He played football in college before moving to baseball full time. He returned in 2015 from Tommy John surgery.

    Extended Spring Training

    Johan Quezada, Max Cordy, Nate Gercken, Miguel Gonzalez, Andrew Vasquez, Hector Lujan, Callan Pearce, Brandon Poulson, Vadim Balam, Luis Hernandez, Onas Farfan

    Johan Quezada came out of nowhere. He is now 6-8 and throws 100. He grew and got stronger. Poulson was the interesting signing by the Twins following the 2014 draft. He throws hard but the Twins kept him in EST in 2015to continue trying to get him some semblance of control. Farfan missed 2015 due to Tommy John but he should be ready for the start of this season. There are some intriguing, hard-throwing pitchers on this list who could surface in Elizabethton (or maybe even Cedar Rapids) in 2016.

    SUMMARY

    There certainly are question marks going into Twins Fest weekend with the Twins bullpen makeup. I do still - naive as it may be - expect the Twins to make another move for a reliever before spring training. There also is some talent at the back end of the bullpen and there is plenty of depth in the upper levels. The Lookouts bullpen is full of high-ceiling reliever options who have a couple of questions to answer but could debut in 2016.

    Relief Pitcher Rankings:

    • Nick Burdi,
    • JT Chargois,
    • Alex Meyer,
    • Jake Reed,
    • Mason Melotakis

    Therein completes our look at the 2016 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections. If you missed any of the parts, see the list below:

    Catchers

    First Basemen

    Middle Infielders

    Third Basemen

    Outfielders (Upper Levels)

    Outfielders (Lower Levels)

    Starting Pitchers

    Feel free to discuss and ask questions.

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    I think the larger point stands -- the Twins bullpen was still very suspect in the 2nd half, and it's largely the same group projected here.

    I can be more specific here.   As insane as Perkins was in the first half he was that bad in the 2nd half.   His ERA the first half was 1.21 in 38 games and had 28 saves.   In the 2nd half he had a 7.32 ERA (doesn't even contemplate inherited runners scored) in 22 appearances and just 4 saves.     Since we added May and Jepsen to the pen after the break I am guessing that if Perkins was available more and pitched even to career average we wouldn't be remembering the 2015 bullpen as being suspect int the 2nd half.   Therefore a lot of this simply boils down to how you view Perkins.   If he is good then the pen should be decent.   If he is not then depth is way more of a concern.

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    I can be more specific here. As insane as Perkins was in the first half he was that bad in the 2nd half. His ERA the first half was 1.21 in 38 games and had 28 saves. In the 2nd half he had a 7.32 ERA (doesn't even contemplate inherited runners scored) in 22 appearances and just 4 saves. Since we added May and Jepsen to the pen after the break I am guessing that if Perkins was available more and pitched even to career average we wouldn't be remembering the 2015 bullpen as being suspect int the 2nd half. Therefore a lot of this simply boils down to how you view Perkins. If he is good then the pen should be decent. If he is not then depth is way more of a concern.

    I don't know, there were a lot of times when we just didn't have a pitcher we trusted late in the season. May wasn't available all the time, Jepsen was saved for ninth, etc. Didn't have a good long man, didn't always play matchups well, etc.

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    I think it is pretty likely that one of the starters is at least "nicked up" and disabled coming into the season. If no one truly disappoints, the Twins could have the luxury of being very cautious with any injury. There aren't many guys with options and too many 30+ year old starters.

     

    I hope the Twins find room for Pressly, if he is as effective as he was last year. Tonkin deserves one fair shot based on his minor league numbers. Last year's development of bullpen options in the minors was a major disappointment. This year should be different.

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    I don't know, there were a lot of times when we just didn't have a pitcher we trusted late in the season. May wasn't available all the time, Jepsen was saved for ninth, etc. Didn't have a good long man, didn't always play matchups well, etc.

    Not really arguing but kind of making my point.   Perkins ineffectiveness had ripple effects.    He was either hurt or bad.   Instead of giving us 35 innings of quality relief in situations described he gave us 28 innings of bad pitching.   That lost games as well as thinned the pen.   We couldn't play match ups because Perkins was hurt or bad.   May had to pitch the day before because Perkins was hurt or bad.   We had no options we could trust with May or Jepsen  out because Perkins was hurt or bad.   Again, 3 good guys and a couple average guys ie, Tonkin, Fien can do be all right but if you turn one of those good guys into a very bad guy and you have problems.   Like I said, I am not against getting a quality guy but we really need the guys we expect to be quality to live up to it.   After the break, Perkins definitely did not.  

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    When one player can cause your bullpen to be near replacement level (Twins relievers 0.3 WAR combined in the 2nd half), that's not a deep pen.

     

    That's why I wanted some insurance, another good pitcher who could help us hold steady if Perk had trouble again, or Jepsen regressed, or Fien, or May was needed for rotation duty, etc. And if those guys all came through, with another top arm you'd have a decent chance at a top 10 bullpen.

     

    Instead we backfilled, again, with Abad.

    Edited by spycake
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    I just finished reading the Peter Gammon blog and found it really had a message for this thread - http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-bullpen-stability-proves-vital-as-pendulum-of-dominance-continues-toward-pitching/ 

     

    Hopefully the Twins have the pitching coaches in majors and minors to do what Peter describes, I have no way of judging them, but the one final aspect that I fear is the analytics.  The Twins have shown real reluctance in jumping fully in to the new era of advance statistical analysis and Gammons blog really makes a case for more.  

    TR please read the blog and ask your in-house stats man to interpret.

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    The plan seems to start with Perkins and Jepsen at the end, May, Fien and Abbad working the middle.  The rest of the plan [so far] seems to point towards running through the list of MiLB relievers to see who sticks.  Pressly deserves first shot and Tonkin should get one, too.  Twins just need to know what they've really got.  And if more that one are successful, hey, Fien and Abbad are replaceable parts.

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    Tonkin deserves one fair shot based on his minor league numbers. Last year's development of bullpen options in the minors was a major disappointment. This year should be different.

    To play devil's advocate, I would argue that Tonkin's received plenty of opportunities to stick. 60 MLB appearances is a pretty decent sample size, and perhaps he hasn't shown enough for the FO to keep him on the MLB roster. 

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    That roster looks a little depressing. It really would have been nice if the team signed or traded for another really good back-end arm.

     

    Now just you watch: Perkins returns to form, Jepsen is lights out again, May is dominant, Abad is "Agood" and someone like Alex Meyer and/or Nick Burdi get called up and dominate themselves, giving the team a killer bullpen and proving everyone wrong

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    To play devil's advocate, I would argue that Tonkin's received plenty of opportunities to stick. 60 MLB appearances is a pretty decent sample size, and perhaps he hasn't shown enough for the FO to keep him on the MLB roster.

    The problem is that Tonkin has been on the AAA/MLB elevator. His 60 appearances are spread over parts of three seasons (IIRC) and interrupted by multiple options to AAA. He's also been in multiple roles. I agree that his MLB numbers are no reason to keep him around, but he's been effective at AAA, throws pretty hard and is still fairly young.
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    The problem is that Tonkin has been on the AAA/MLB elevator. His 60 appearances are spread over parts of three seasons (IIRC) and interrupted by multiple options to AAA. He's also been in multiple roles. I agree that his MLB numbers are no reason to keep him around, but he's been effective at AAA, throws pretty hard and is still fairly young.

    That is true his appearances have been spread out over 3 seasons. I'd also argue there's a reason he's been on the AAA/MLB elevator. That being he's merely a AAAA player. The Twins have had a few examples in recent years (Slama, Oliveros, Achter) of pitchers with promising AAA numbers, but just doesn't have enough to stick in an MLB bullpen. 

    At the end of the day I still agree with you that Tonkin's most likely going to make the opening day bullpen and get his shot. If he's still inconsistent over a few appearances, I hope the Twins are quick to move on to one of our other younger guys like Rogers, Burdi, Chargois, etc. if they don't make the team out of ST.  

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    To play devil's advocate, I would argue that Tonkin's received plenty of opportunities to stick. 60 MLB appearances is a pretty decent sample size, and perhaps he hasn't shown enough for the FO to keep him on the MLB roster. 

     

     Pending May's results and spot, he's the hardest throwing guy in the pen using these projections.  I'd bump him if one of the young hot-shots are ready, but I'd still keep him over Fien and I don't need to give Nolasco much of a leash before I'm ready to pull the plug on him.

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     Pending May's results and spot, he's the hardest throwing guy in the pen using these projections.  I'd bump him if one of the young hot-shots are ready, but I'd still keep him over Fien and I don't need to give Nolasco much of a leash before I'm ready to pull the plug on him.

    I'm on board with that. I'm sure he'll be in the MLB bullpen out of ST since he's out of options, but if he's still inconsistent, I can see him being a DFA candidate and the young arms take his spot. 

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    The plan seems to start with Perkins and Jepsen at the end, May, Fien and Abbad working the middle.  The rest of the plan [so far] seems to point towards running through the list of MiLB relievers to see who sticks.  Pressly deserves first shot and Tonkin should get one, too.  Twins just need to know what they've really got.  And if more that one are successful, hey, Fien and Abbad are replaceable parts.

    Leaving Milone out? Fien and Pressly both have an option left but I think you need Abad, Milone, and Perkins all for LHRP. Unless you take a bench spot away for 8 RP's but I don't think that's a good idea either.

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    Leaving Milone out? Fien and Pressly both have an option left but I think you need Abad, Milone, and Perkins all for LHRP. Unless you take a bench spot away for 8 RP's but I don't think that's a good idea either.

    Unless something has changed recently, Milone is a starter.

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    Unless something has changed recently, Milone is a starter.

    Along with Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey, and Nolasco. Wasn't sure which one of those you were leaving off the 25-man in place of Tonkin and Pressly.

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