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  • 2016 Report Cards: Outfield


    Nick Nelson

    Yesterday, we graded out the 2016 Minnesota Twins infield. Today, we'll continue our player-by-player review with a breakdown of the outfield. This unit saw many significant developments this year, especially with young talents experiencing breakthroughs and setbacks.

    Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, USA Today

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    As with the infielders, our criteria for inclusion on this list are that the player made at least 50 plate appearances and remains on the roster as of now. Let's dig in.

    Byron Buxton, CF

    2016 Stats: 331 PA, .225/.284/.430, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 44 R, 1.7 WAR

    Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

    It took Buxton a little longer than we hoped to turn the corner, but he did so quite definitively late in the year. Following months of struggles, and multiple demotions to Triple-A, the 22-year-old caught fire upon returning in September, posting a .287/.357/.653 line with nine homers and 24 runs scored in 29 games. The torrid streak was profound enough to raise his overall numbers back to respectability by year's end.

    His final OPS of .714 – up more than 150 points from when he was recalled with five weeks to go – wasn't far off the league average for center fielders (.730) and came attached to elite, game-changing defense at a vital position. His contributions in the field were deemed valuable enough by FanGraphs that his 1.7 WAR ranked second on the team among position players, behind Brian Dozier.

    The prolonged slumps that forced him to spend stretches in Rochester (where he dominated) and the ghastly 36 percent strikeout rate cannot be ignored, so Buxton's grade gets dinged, but in the end it's hard to come away from his season with a negative view.

    2016 Grade: B-

    2017 Outlook: Buxton will be locked in as center fielder and seems likely to bat leadoff if he displays a good plate approach in spring training. Should he come anywhere close to picking up where he left off at the plate, he's a strong bet to be the best player on the team and one of the most valuable in the league.

    Robbie Grossman, LF

    2016 Stats: 389 PA, .280/.386/.443, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 49 R, 0.7 WAR

    Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

    In a generally tough year for the front office under Terry Ryan, uncovering Grossman goes down easily as one of the club's best strokes. To some extent it was just fortuitous circumstance; the outfielder had opted out of his minor-league deal with Cleveland in mid-May, around the same time Minnesota was desperately seeking outfield help with its youthful alignment scuffling badly. Still, Grossman was a good find and enjoyed a breakout year after joining up with the Twins.

    His production tailed off considerably following an initial tear, but he continued to draw walks and get on base even while his bat sagged, and he finished strong. Grossman ended the year with a .386 on-base percentage, which ranked 14th in the majors among players with 350-plus PA. His proclivity in this regard was much needed in a lineup that generally struggled to get aboard consistently.

    On the downside, Grossman's defense was not good. He made several misplays and showed stunningly little range for a guy who moves reasonably well.

    2016 Grade: B

    2017 Outlook: Grossman certainly has a strong case for a starting job. He was the best hitter on the team outside of Dozier, and his patience is a handy changeup within an aggressive, power-hitting lineup. However, his extremely poor defensive ratings will work against him with an analytically inclined front office that is emphasizing run prevention. Could he be a darkhorse for DH?

    Max Kepler, RF

    2016 Stats: 447 PA, .235/.309/.424, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 52 R, 1.1 WAR

    Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

    Recalled on June 1st after a scalding hot streak in Triple-A, it didn't take Kepler long to heat up again in the majors. During a dominant run that stretched from mid-June through mid-August, Kepler looked like a premier middle-of-the-order run producer, racking up extra-base hits and averaging nearly an RBI per contest. In one game he homered twice and drove in seven runs; in another he launched three bombs with six RBIs. They were among the most spectacular offensive performances we've seen from a Minnesota rookie.

    But the once red-hot 23-year-old finished his season encased in ice. Over his last 40 games he hit .197/.263/.276 as the quality of his at-bats deteriorated and his power dried up. In contrast to Buxton, it appeared that pitchers were figuring Kepler out rather than the other way around. The slide led to overall numbers that, while solid, were not special.

    2016 Grade: B-

    2017 Outlook: He's penciled in for right field, although one wonders how firm his hold is. Kepler blasted through Rochester in 30 games but the back half of his stint with the Twins leaves open the possibility that he needs a little more seasoning at Triple-A. The long-term view remains very optimistic.

    Eddie Rosario, LF

    2016 Stats: 354 PA, .269/.295/.421, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 52 R, 0.9 WAR

    Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

    An exciting rookie year led to speculation about what kind of impact Rosario might be capable of if he evolved and matured. Unfortunately, in his sophomore campaign, he did no such thing. Rosario was much the same player in 2016, with some frustrating habits lingering if not worsening. Whether in the batter's box, on the base paths or in the outfield, his aggressiveness often crossed into recklessness, much to the manager's aggravation.

    Along with the bad – blasting through stops signs, sailing throws aimlessly, striking out four times in several games – we saw the good. When he came back from his demotion he was mashing everything that came his way for two months. And aside from the all-too-frequent miscues he was a clear asset in left, combining center field range with right field arm strength. But the negatives were enough to offset the positives in an ultimately vexing year.

    2016 Grade: C

    2017 Outlook: He will be a corner outfield starter, unless he's a complete mess in camp. There's little hope for Rosario to develop any sort of meaningful selectiveness at the plate, so it's imperative that he lay off pitches nowhere near the zone while cutting down defensive mistakes. If he can do so, the 25-year-old certainly has plenty to offer.

    Danny Santana, CF

    2016 Stats: 248 PA, .240/.279/.326, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 29 R, -0.7 WAR

    Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

    Among 353 players with 200 plate appearances, Santana ranked 334th in OPS. He was thrown out nine times on 21 steal attempts. He played six different positions, but wasn't particularly sharp at any of them.

    As an athletic and versatile switch-hitter, Santana is theoretically a nice bench piece. But in reality, he's been one of the worst players in the league over the last two years.

    2016 Grade: F

    2017 Outlook: The signing of J.B Shuck to a minor-league contract – whose defensive prowess actually makes up for his light hitting – earlier this month puts Santana, who is out of options, on notice. It's unlikely Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will see much they like but apparently they're inclined to let Santana compete for a job in spring training since they kept him on the 40-man roster through the Rule 5 draft.

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    Well, expectations and context come into play to some extent. The standards are a little different here.

     

    Not a guy in this bunch had a season with 500 MLB plate appearances before this year. I don't think it'd be a very interesting exercise if I gave everyone D's because they fall very short of being Mike Trout.

     

    He was our starting right fielder for much of the season so my expectations are that he is comparable to other starting right fielders in the league.  The average RF in 2016 had a .752 OPS while Kepler had a .734 OPS, slightly below average.  If you just compare him to RF who had over 400 PA he ranks 29th out of 33, well below average.  Looking at his defense the eye test tells me he made a number of stupid looking plays last year.  The numbers back this up a bit with his defense runs above average coming in at -5.4 and his UZR was -.7, both below average.

     

    Given that he had both below average offense and defense for his role I would grade him in the D/D+/C- range without using unrealistic comps like Trout.

     

    Since he is 23 I can see a very reasonable argument that this shows some promise for 2017 because he is still in the growth part of his career so he could rise to average or above average next year but that optimism should not change the realistic evaluation of his 2016 performance.

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    He did say "wait for the pitching"....and the Twins were 16th in runs scored, only 30 from 10th. That sounds like a C to me.

     

    Perhaps, but when people say we are also factoring in "expectations" I think that drops it a bit.  C/D sounds better and we're closer to a weak B at this point.

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    Perhaps, but when people say we are also factoring in "expectations" I think that drops it a bit.  C/D sounds better and we're closer to a weak B at this point.

     

    Interesting. If I factor in expectations, I'd probably raise it a bit, as my expectations were pretty low for the OF group. 

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    Interesting. If I factor in expectations, I'd probably raise it a bit, as my expectations were pretty low for the OF group. 

     

    Really?  Hmmm, for me Buxton sort of makes/breaks this group.  Also, I'm sort of merging this and the infield thread as I'm commenting since they are both about the offense and defense more or less.

     

    I also think we inadequately factored in defense in a lot of this.  (Which was also quite bad)

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    I struggle giving Grossman a B because of how incredibly horrendous his defense was when I was able to watch. His offense is great, but his defense is like the kid you stick in the outfield and pray to God the ball doesn't find him. I couldn't believe I was watching a professional baseball player when I saw him out in the field.

     

    I am very excited for an outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler next year however.

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    Grossman a B, and Kepler a B-? Grossman with a case to be the starting LF, or the DH? While not having RG in LF anymore would make TD GT far less entertaining, I will be more than happy to suffer that withdrawal. In the Old West, some towns made you check your guns on entering the city limits. I feel that policy should also extend to Robbie's fielding gloves at the Ft. Myers border. Btw, I apologize for using the words "fielding" and "gloves" in the same sentence with regards to RG. :). And as for DH? When you have a hitter who's main weapon is drawing walks, and not doing much damage to strikes, it doesn't take long for MLB pitchers to narrow their zone.

    All of this. All of this x 1,000.

     

    Robbie lived up to, or possibly surpassed, the expectations placed on him as Baseball Prospectus' #76 prospect of 2012, but nothing he did (in my mind) puts him in consideration for a starting spot. Barring multiple injuries.

     

    His "defense" is comical, his arm not much better, and while he does draw a number of walks, he also strikes out a bunch. I can live with strikeouts if there's a ceiling of high run production there. With Rob, I think we saw his absolute ceiling last year.

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    I also thought the grading was too high. Someone above me made a point that even Doziers grade was high due to his two month black hole. I kind of go back to RG. If he is a B, then Sano and yours truly should be taking fly balls this winter. We can run lousy routes with the best of them, although at my age bending over, running, and stepping on my own glove would be difficult. :). I only wish my teachers had graded like this. It would have likely elevated me into the upper 75 percentile! :)

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    The only grades I'd probably disagree with here are Grossman - I'd go C+ given his defensive struggles (putting it lightly) and the high number of Ks in relation to run production.

     

    The other one is Santana's F.

     

    Do we have to use a typical K-12 grading scale for him, or can we just give him a Z and call it a day?

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    The only grades I'd probably disagree with here are Grossman - I'd go C+ given his defensive struggles (putting it lightly) and the high number of Ks in relation to run production.

     

    The other one is Santana's F.

     

    Do we have to use a typical K-12 grading scale for him, or can we just give him a Z and call it a day?

     

    And yet, he is still on the 40 man. 

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    All of this. All of this x 1,000.

     

    Robbie lived up to, or possibly surpassed, the expectations placed on him as Baseball Prospectus' #76 prospect of 2012, but nothing he did (in my mind) puts him in consideration for a starting spot. Barring multiple injuries.

     

    His "defense" is comical, his arm not much better, and while he does draw a number of walks, he also strikes out a bunch. I can live with strikeouts if there's a ceiling of high run production there. With Rob, I think we saw his absolute ceiling last year.

    Concur. Robbie was a fine waiver wire claim and provided a spark when most of the team struggled to put the ball in play. I also believe last year was his ceiling... He was hovering ~.700 OPS prior to last season's explosion of .828 OPS.

     

    He would need to continue to be an .800+ OPS guy from here on out to provide much value. We're certainly not going to see value with his fielding abilities.

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    Well, maybe.  But some of the guys we are tossing Bs at in this were talked about as MVP candidates.  Or guys that would be with the club all year long and weren't.  Or guys that had ups and downs.

    I'm less interested in what the overly optimistic local expectations were, and more concerned with what the objective outside expectations were.

    For instance, look at the ZiPS projections before this year.

    They pegged Buxton at .266/.310/.405. He met that .715 OPS almost exactly. I gave him a bump to the low B range because his defense was truly tremendous and his final month was off the charts. ZiPS had Kepler at .252/.310/.396. He exceeded his OPS projection by a healthy margin. I gave him bonus points for delivering some unforgettable single-game performances, and for the fact that he was able to accumulate 450 PA at all. The kid hadn't played a game above Double-A in the minors entering this year.

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    I'm less interested in what the overly optimistic local expectations were, and more concerned with what the objective outside expectations were.

    For instance, look at the ZiPS projections before this year.

    They pegged Buxton at .266/.310/.405. He met that .715 OPS almost exactly. I gave him a bump to the low B range because his defense was truly tremendous and his final month was off the charts. ZiPS had Kepler at .252/.310/.396. He exceeded his OPS projection by a healthy margin. I gave him bonus points for delivering some unforgettable single-game performances, and for the fact that he was able to accumulate 450 PA at all. The kid hadn't played a game above Double-A in the minors entering this year.

     

    Some of those locally optimistic expectations belonged to you......*cough* MVP *cough*

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    Some of those locally optimistic expectations belonged to you......*cough* MVP *cough*

    haha, hey I'm not denying it.

     

    I still confident it'll happen with Sano at some point. We'll treat the timetable on that prediction like Dave's 24-hour window for the Dozier trade... 

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    Rosario's swing rate dropped marginally last year, but his contact rate dropped along with it.  His WAR also dropped but that was mostly due to his defense also taking a step back.

     

    I'm not sure what to think of Rosario at this point, but one thing is for certain:  He needs to perform in 2017 unless he wants to be a bench player for the rest of his career. 

    Buxton still needs to prove himself.  Many times us fans have felt that Buxton turned the corner after performing well for a short period of time.  After his strong finish to 2016 we are doing that again.  His OPS+ is right there with Rosario, who was given a C grade.  Buxton needs to put together 2-3 consecutive good months for me to be convinced that he has turned the corner. 

     

    Kepler's production fell over a cliff down the stretch.  But we should not be worried about that -- he outperformed expectations as a rookie and had a great July.  There are no signs that he will regress in 2017. 

     

    Grossman, Santana:  Who cares.  Neither of them are the future of the team.  Grossman hit very well in 2016 (and, in spite of what people say, his production did NOT get worse as the year went on), but it's difficult to believe he won't regress.  His defense is terrible and a liability so he should not be the 4th outfielder, and the Twins have better options as bench bats.  Grossman profiles as the typical White Sox player.  As for Santana, I'm not convinced that his injuries have not been the source of his problems.  The drop off he has experienced from 2014 is steep.  Be that as it may, unless he pulls a Nunez this year he won't last long with the team ... and Nunez's turnaround was somewhat predictable.  Santana doesn't look like he has such a turnaround in him.

     

    I agree with most of this, but am perplexed at who the better bench bats are than Grossman?  Do you really trust Park, Vargas, ect to take a quality at bat in a big spot over Grossman? 

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    I agree with most of this, but am perplexed at who the better bench bats are than Grossman?  Do you really trust Park, Vargas, ect to take a quality at bat in a big spot over Grossman? 

     

    Yes, I think so.  Grossman didn't show any offensive prowess until last year whereas those others have.  Grossman is a strong regression candidate, though yes regression is impossible to predict. 

     

    Plus, if Grossman becomes the bench bat, suddenly you are blocking Park, Vargas, etc.

    If Grossman learns to play some defense he instantly becomes incredibly valuable to this team and there is no way the team should part with him. This is the path for Grossman to remain in the bigs. 

    Edited by Doomtints
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