2015 Twins: An Afterthought in the AL Central (And Why That is a Good Thing)

“The perennial favorite Detroit Tigers still have David Price, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera.”

“The AL Champion Royals still have that speedy offense and one of the best bullpens in baseball.”

“The White Sox have improved across every position and look to be real contenders!”

“Don’t discount the Indians! This team has a sneaky offense and a solid rotation!”

The conversation typically ends there. When analysts list the division top through bottom, they seemingly always forget to include the team that has, unfortunately, taken up residency at the bottom of the division over the past four years.

If we are being objective, we cannot really fault the national media for not paying much attention to the Twins. This team, as currently constructed, is not expected to do any better than fifth in the division. Odds-makers have forecast the Twins around 65 to 69 wins and locally the Twins have fallen off the radar, evidenced by expected all-time low ticket sales (for Target Field) and a growing apathy among the fan base.

Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national lack of interest directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing.

How exactly do all of the aforementioned “negatives” create a “positive” result? Simply put, it removes a most expectations and pressure from what will be a young team. While Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will always have some form of pressure as the fan-proclaimed “Saviors” of the Twins, other young players on the verge of the big leagues will play with zero expectations. Players like Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Nick Burdi can all be allowed to learn and grow on the job without the expectation and pressure that they will deliver instantly and turn the team into a contender. This relaxed atmosphere can make a great difference – instead of being demoted or benched at the first sign of a slump, the young players can work through it, learn to adapt and (hopefully) improve their game, all at the highest level.

Of course, this reduced pressure doesn’t amount to much if the team is still an absolute train wreck – but there’s reason to believe the days of horrendous, unwatchable baseball are behind the Twins. While it may be easy to scoff at that line of thinking, dubbing it “early season optimism” the facts point to changes on the horizon.

First, the pitching staff has improved. While we will not know to what degree until the season has reached its conclusion, we can safely say that this year’s pitching staff (assuming they all enter the season healthy) is, in fact, better than last year’s rotation.

Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone / Trevor May / Alex Meyer create, at the least, a major league viable rotation. Ervin Santana adds another quality starter the team simply did not have last season. Meanwhile, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone enter the season healthy after suffering through injuries last season. Trevor May looked better with each start, and Alex Meyer and his potentially “ace” level repertoire is knocking on the big league door.

Even if Phil Hughes regresses, Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone don’t bounce back and Trevor May doesn’t amount to anything more than Kyle Gibson 2.0 (which, wouldn’t entirely be a bad thing, mind you), so long as those five are making a majority of the starts, the staff improves simply based on cumulative quality. Lest we forget, Andrew Albers, Yohan Pino and a bevy of AAAA arms made a large number of starts for the Twins last season – it’s addition by subtraction simply by giving the starts to actual major league caliber arms.

My final point in favor of the pitching staff: Mike Pelfrey, who entered last season as the team’s third best starter, can now be considered the seventh or eighth best option – a great indicator that the overall quality of the staff has improved.

Meanwhile, it’s easy to forget that the Twins finished the second half of the season with one of the best offenses in baseball. Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas have been named as prime candidates for regression, which may be fair. Both played at an absolutely incredible level last season, and it would be unrealistic to expect that to continue without some growing pains this year.

Focusing solely on Santana and Vargas is a mistake, however, as it discounts the improvements we saw from Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe and Oswaldo Arcia. All three made fundamental changes in their approach at the plate last season, and all three showed marked improvement by season’s end – improvements that give every indication of being sustainable as we enter 2015.

Factor in a healthy Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter providing a consistent quality bat and contributions from the improved trio of Plouffe, Dozier and Arcia and there is reason to believe this offense will remain a threat this season.

To call the expectations for the Twins in 2015 “slim” would probably be a bit generous. The national media and much of the MLB fan base have written the team off prior to the first pitches being thrown. While even the most optimistic Twins fans would struggle to call the team contenders, I do think this is an improved club, lurking within this division, which will prove to be more of a challenge than they’re being credited with. If that is the case, this lack of spotlight may prove to be a very good thing for the Twins entering 2015.