2015 Projections and Rankings: Kennys Vargas

Vargas will be helped out with Hunter and Maurer batting around him.  I suspect there will be a long drought in May or June, where he goes something like 3 for 45 over a stretch.  Wouldn't surprise me if he was sent to Rochester for a bit and Pinto becomes a DH for a while.  Otherwise, I think he could form into a Billy Butler type DH, lots of doubles, decent average (280-290) and not a ton of home runs (14-16).

I see a big year for Vargas, with some growing pains.  But he'll average .275-.280 with 26 doubles and 28 bombs.  A bright spot for us this year. 

I think his OBP goes up but the average stays closer to .260 or .270. 

I'll say .260/.335/.455

Bank on Victor Martinez regressing in 2015. Last year was a career year and there's nowhere for him to go but down.  In general I'm a huge seller on the Detroit Tigers.

I think it'll all depend on how he handles breaking balls, because he's gonna see a lot this year. I'll say .260 BA, 25+ HR's, and a butt-load of K's.

Why the Butler comparison?  I am just curious.  Vargas has much, much raw power than Billy does.  Besides being slow and a liability of defense I don't see much Butler in Vargas's game.

 

I'll say .265/.340/.475 with 28 HR.

I compare him to Butler because of his OBP and I think he is more a line drive/use the entire field hitter than a home run threat.  Vargas will hit a lot of doubles into the gaps, like Butler did.  The other things that I think will play into a statistical match between the two is that Vargas will play 81 games at Target Field.  He is a switch hitter, so he will be batting left-handed 2/3 of the time.  If he was playing 81 games at Yankee stadium I think he would hit 3-5 more home runs.  He was brought up in the Twins system, so I think he will use the field, take what the pitchers give him and not pull the ball too much.  I think his batting eye will translate more than his power.  Also, I am going off of a historical hunch, not too many switch hitters hit 30 homers, Tiexeria comes to mind (as does Mantle).  Anyways, I hope I am wrong and he hits 30 homers, but having a Billy Butler-type isnt a bad thing.

I compare him to Butler because of his OBP and I think he is more a line drive/use the entire field hitter than a home run threat. 

Based on what? Vargas has demonstrated the ability to hit for power since he's been in the Twins' system. He slugged almost .500 over the course of his minor league career, and his home run total in the majors last year projected to almost 30 over a full season's worth of at bats. Choosing OBP to determine a player's ability to hit for power is . . . wacky. The only player on the team with more raw power than Vargas is (for the time being) Arcia. Simply put, the Billy Butler comparison makes no sense, because Vargas can mash.

As for a projection, I don't know.

.260/.315/.420 with 35 doubles and 26 dingers? How does that sound?

.267/.344/.468 (.813) with 33 doubles and 19 home runs.

Speaking of Vargas, I was getting the uniforms confused during the Red Sox game last night, and when I turned the game on I said, "Is that Kennys Vargas?" It was David Ortiz.

I'm not using OBP to rate his power. I just think playing at Target Field and the twins hitting philosophy will lead to less home runs and more walks and doubles. The butler comparison is statistically based. If Vargas was in the Rangers system and played half his games in Arlington with all the summer heat he would hit more home runs.