The Minnesota Twins have plenty of work to do this offseason after finishing the 2026 campaign with a disappointing 77-85 record. Between free agents departing and several holes that need to be addressed, the roster will look different when the team takes the field next spring. However, a recent MLB.com ranking suggests Minnesota might be closer to contention than its record indicates.

Mike Petriello ranked all 30 MLB teams based on their projected 2027 rosters. Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) projections from FanGraphs, the rankings examine where each organization stands as it enters the offseason. This isn't a ranking of last year's results. Instead, it provides a snapshot of the players currently projected to be on each team's roster before free-agent additions and other offseason moves.

According to Petriello's rankings, the Twins are tied for eighth overall. That's a surprisingly strong position for a team that finished eight games below .500. Minnesota shares that ranking with the Tampa Bay Rays, the reigning American League champions, along with the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays.

Why Are the Twins Ranked So High?

Petriello acknowledges that Minnesota's position in the rankings might surprise some fans. After all, this is a team that won only 77 games and struggled to establish much consistency throughout the season. However, the projections see something worth building around.

The Twins don't have a lineup full of superstars, but they also don't have many glaring weaknesses in the projected batting order. Having a relatively balanced group of position players can make a significant difference when evaluating a roster's overall projected value.

There are also some interesting young players who could help elevate that group. Petriello specifically points toward the projections for Kaelen Culpepper (3.1 fWAR) and Luke Keaschall (3.4 fWAR). There is certainly room to question how much optimism should be placed in those projections, but their potential contributions help explain Minnesota's ranking.

The pitching staff also has some reasons for optimism. Taj Bradley (2.7 fWAR)  took a significant step forward during his breakout campaign, giving the organization another intriguing arm near the top of its rotation. Joe Ryan (3.0 fWAR) remains an important part of the starting group, while Pablo López (1.8 fWAR) is expected to return and provide another major boost.

Those three pitchers give Minnesota a foundation that could make the rotation one of its strengths in 2027. However, the projections also highlight how much work remains to build a reliable pitching staff behind them.

Several Offseason Needs Remain

Being ranked among baseball's top eight projected rosters doesn't mean the Twins can sit back and enjoy the offseason. Petriello identifies several areas where Minnesota needs to make improvements.

The departure of Ryan Jeffers creates an immediate need behind the plate. Jeffers has been an important part of the organization, and the Twins cannot simply assume the current catching situation will be enough to replace his production. They need to find another option who can handle a significant workload.

Josh Bell is another major departure. He provided 21 home runs during the 2026 season, and Minnesota needs to find a way to replace that power. The Twins don't necessarily need to sign another first baseman with the same profile, but they need to add some offensive production to a lineup that already lacks many established stars.

The bullpen might be the biggest overall concern. Minnesota needs multiple reinforcements to create a more dependable group of relievers. Losing A.J. Minter to free agency would add another challenge for a pitching staff that needs more reliable late-inning options.

Starting pitching depth is another concern. Bradley, Ryan, and López provide an encouraging top three, but the organization cannot expect Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, and Dean Kremer to absorb hundreds of additional innings without finding more help. Injuries and workload management make starting rotation depth essential over a 162-game season.

There is plenty of work ahead, but these are manageable needs for a team with an established foundation.

How Does the Rest of the AL Central Compare?

The Twins' ranking also provides an interesting look at the rest of the division. The Cleveland Guardians lead the AL Central representatives, ranking seventh overall. Minnesota and Detroit are tied for eighth, putting three division rivals among the top eight projected rosters in baseball. The Chicago White Sox come in at No. 20, while the Kansas City Royals rank 23rd.

Cleveland remains near the top of the rankings despite having some significant pitching needs. Detroit also has plenty of work ahead, particularly with its rotation and bullpen. Meanwhile, Chicago and Kansas City have more roster questions to answer before they can be considered serious contenders.

The AL Central could be an interesting division again in 2027, especially if Minnesota and Detroit can translate their projected roster value into more wins.

The Twins Have Work to Do

An eighth-place preseason roster ranking doesn't guarantee anything. The Twins were projected to be more competitive in 2026 than their final record suggested, and projections are never a substitute for results on the field.

Still, this ranking provides an encouraging starting point for Minnesota's offseason. The organization has young talent, intriguing starting pitching, and a lineup that projects to be relatively balanced. Those are important building blocks for a team hoping to return to postseason contention.

Now comes the difficult part. The Twins need to replace the production of departing free agents, improve their bullpen, add catching help, and provide more depth to the rotation. Those moves will require resources and a willingness to improve the roster.

Petriello's ranking offers a snapshot of where Minnesota stands before the Hot Stove season gets going. By the time spring training arrives, the Twins could look considerably different. The decisions made over the next several months will ultimately determine whether they remain a top-eight projected roster or fall further down the rankings heading into the 2027 campaign.

Do you agree with the rankings? What additions could move Minnesota higher this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

At the beginning of last winter, Connor Prielipp's future with the Twins was still an open question. After years of elbow injuries and an extremely limited professional workload, Minnesota's front office was considering whether his best path to helping the big-league club might be in the bullpen. His electric stuff could play in shorter outings, and a relief role might better protect an arm that had already undergone two significant elbow procedures.

Prielipp entered the offseason hoping to remain a starter. Rather than moving him into the bullpen, the organization gave him another opportunity to develop his arsenal. One important addition came in January, when he began incorporating a new curveball. That decision became one of the most encouraging developments of Minnesota's season.

Prielipp finished 2026 with 144 1/3 innings between the major leagues and Triple-A, surpassing his total from the previous six years. At the big-league level, he made 24 appearances, including 22 starts, and posted a 4.87 ERA with an 87 ERA+. He struck out 128 hitters (23.9 K%) across 125 2/3 innings in the majors, while recording a 1.29 WHIP.

Those numbers tell part of the story, but his development as a starting pitcher might be even more important. The curveball gave him another weapon to complement his existing repertoire. Major-league hitters managed only a .198 batting average against the pitch, and it generated 48 of his strikeouts, more than any other offering. By the end of the season, the Twins were no longer simply trying to find a way to get Prielipp's talent onto a major league roster. They were watching him establish himself as a starter.

Balancing Development and Workload

There was still a significant question surrounding how much the Twins could ask from Prielipp. He entered 2026 coming off a career-high 82⅔ innings in 2025. With his injury history, Minnesota needed to be careful about increasing that workload too quickly.

August provided another reason for the organization to monitor his progress. Prielipp made five appearances and covered 26 ⅔ innings, but he struggled to a 7.90 ERA. He allowed 31 hits and 13 walks. A particularly difficult outing against Philadelphia resulted in eight runs allowed over five innings.

The workload conversation was happening throughout the season. Earlier discussions had centered on whether Minnesota might eventually shut him down after reaching approximately 100 innings. That would have represented a cautious increase from his previous career high. Instead, the Twins continued to evaluate his progress and adjust his schedule. When possible, they stretched the rotation to give him extra rest between appearances.

Prielipp responded with one of his best stretches of the season in September. He covered another 26 2/3 innings and posted a 2.40 ERA, striking out 22 hitters while walking only five. Opponents hit just .194 against him during the month. Minnesota also used him in a pair of bulk-relief appearances early in September as the club worked through its rotation options and managed his workload. He returned to the starting role and had arguably his best start of the season with a seven-inning, two-hit shutout performance against the Angels on September 18.

When reporters asked whether the organization had changed its plans after seeing Prielipp improve late in the season, Twins GM Jeremy Zoll highlighted just how much he had accomplished.

“I thought that was one of the better stories of our year," Zoll said. "He added a curveball in January and pitched a whole season as a starter.”

The response also acknowledged that both accomplishments seemed uncertain when the season began. Prielipp deserved considerable credit for making them happen. His workload remained an ongoing discussion, though. Rather than establish one specific innings limit, the organization monitored his medical information, training and conditioning, and biomechanical reports. The goal was to recognize potential warning signs and adjust if necessary.

“If yellow lights start to pop up late in the year, then respond to that,” Zoll explained. They were prepared to take a different approach if needed, but Prielipp continued progressing.

What It Means for the 2027 Rotation

The Twins now appear much closer to treating Prielipp as a traditional starting pitcher. When reporters asked whether the team planned to turn him loose more next season, Zoll indicated that his thinking had shifted.

“Off the cuff, I feel like we're a lot closer to treating him as a traditional starter," he said. That doesn't mean Minnesota expects Prielipp to take every turn in the rotation for the entire season. The organization still believes additional recovery time will be important.

“Still feels like someone [for whom] baking in the extra days is going to be valuable, just because I don't think he should pitch on four days' rest 32 times,” Zoll said. 

The Twins will have several starting pitching options entering 2027. Joe Ryan, Pablo López, Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Dean Kremer, Zebby Matthews, and Mick Abel give the organization plenty of competition alongside Prielipp—although that assumes they all stay in place throughout the offseason. His emergence adds another legitimate option, even if the front office eventually makes a trade to address another roster need.

More importantly, Prielipp no longer profiles as a pitcher whose future might be better served by moving to the bullpen. He demonstrated that he can handle a full season as a starter, and his September performance offered a glimpse of what he could become with another offseason of development.

Minnesota still needs to be thoughtful about his workload. However, the organization has a much better foundation for planning his future than it did a year ago. Prielipp went from a pitcher whose starting future was uncertain to someone the Twins can reasonably envision taking the ball every fifth or sixth day. That's a significant change in just one season, and it could become an important development for Minnesota's rotation in 2027.

What stands out about Prielipp’s 2026 performance? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

In one scary scenario, the Twins might not add a significant free-agent catcher this winter. Ryan Jeffers could walk away from Minnesota for a long-term deal, while Tyler Stephenson and Carson Kelly could get better offers elsewhere. These three are the top free-agent options at the position on DiamondCentric’s free agent rankings. So, if the Twins don’t sign any of these names, where do they pivot?

Minnesota could try to land bigger offensive threats such as Hunter Goodman and Shea Langeliers, names that have floated around in trade rumors for quite some time now, but it's unlikely the Twins would be willing to go after these high-tier options after just letting Jeffers go. They have a vacancy at the position, even with Victor Caratini under contract, and need at least one other body for the 2027 season (and maybe longer).

Thankfully, one team seems to have a catching logjam, given that one of their top prospects was recently called up to start at the position. That team is the San Diego Padres, and their veteran catchers, Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano, would both be solid additions if the Twins strike out everywhere else this offseason.

Freddy Fermin: A Defensive Upgrade

Fermin was acquired at the 2025 deadline from the Royals. Through his season and a half with the Padres, the 31-year-old has slashed .217/.276/.323 with six home runs in 404 plate appearances. That's not great offensive output, but that wouldn't be why Minnesota would acquire him. Fermin graded out very well defensively in 2026, posting a Fielding Run Value of 9, according to Statcast. That was good for eighth among catchers, and significantly better than Caratini, who ranked 19th. He's very well-rounded defensively, ranking in the 86^th percentile or above in blocks above average, caught stealing above average, and pop time, while grading out as a well-above-average framer, as well. He would give the Twins a reliable veteran presence behind the dish, and while the bat is not good, the rest of the lineup should have enough firepower to make up for Fermin’s lack of offensive output.

Luis Campusano: An Offensive Upgrade

While neither of the Padres’ potential trade chips is as good offensively as Jeffers, Campusano held his own last year, putting up a respectable .265/.363/.433 line with 8 homers in 248 plate appearances. The former top prospect has struggled to find consistency throughout his seven-year major-league career, but with Salas called up and (ostensibly) ready to go as the future of the catching position in San Diego, it may be time for Campusano to get a change of scenery. His 122 OPS+ was significantly better than Caratini’s 77, and it's also better than Kelly (97) and Stephenson (101) were this year. Campusano is not as good defensively as Fermin, earning -3 FRV last season, a bit worse than Jeffers. Still, Campusano could be one of the better offensive options for the Twins to get, and if they can’t get a more established major-league player, he certainly would have more upside than Caratini, at least in the batter’s box.

How Willing Will San Diego Be to Deal?

Though it's natural to look at the three catchers who finished the year in the majors and assume the Padres will move one of them, top executive A.J. Preller downplayed that likelihood a bit on Tuesday in Las Vegas.

"You think you have some catching, then there's an injury, which can happen at that spot, and all of a sudden, now you're searching for catching," Preller said, when asked how hard it would be to move any of his three backstops. "We've built up that spot. We have three players that we feel like you can win in the playoffs with at that position. So we don't take that lightly."

Preller pushed back on the notion that Salas has established himself, suggesting he'll need to come to spring training ready to compete for a spot and pointing to some shorcomings the rookie showed as a receiver and handler of the pitching staff. However, he also admitted that the Padres have already heard from several teams interested in trading for one of the trio, so San Diego is keeping an open mind. Suffice it to say this: neither Fermin nor Campusano will be an easy, low-cost pickup. A trade for either will cost something, even if it be relatively modest.

Hopefully, This is a Short-Term Problem

Neither of these names would need to be the long-term answer behind the dish for the Twins. Minnesota has prospects on the rise, led by Vahn Lackey and Eduardo Tait, and Lackey could be here as early as the end of the 2027 season. Fermin and Campusano would be stopgaps, with a chance to remain in the organization past 2027 if they perform adequately, or at least above the level of Caratini. Ultimately, the goal would be to stabilize the position for the next season or two without significantly increasing the payroll or sacrificing high-level prospects. If the Twins find themselves watching their top catching options sign elsewhere and cannot land a bigger name on the trade market, San Diego could provide a practical alternative to bridge the gap until their own young talent is ready to take over.

Twins Daily's Matthew Trueblood contributed reporting.

Last season got off less than ideal for Jordan Balazovic. Due to the lockout, he couldn’t communicate with the organization and entered Spring Training with a knee issue. Despite suggesting he was healthy, he was slow out of the gate and battled ineffectiveness all season long. Even while he turned things around late with the St. Paul Saints, Balazovic finished with a gaudy ERA north of 7.00 across more than 70 innings of work.

Just a year removed from being a guy that put up a 3.62 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning at Double-A, Balazovic had turned into a complete pumpkin. The walks ballooned, and while the strikeouts held on, he inexplicably allowed more than two-and-a-half homers per nine innings. It was shocking for a guy who had always been stingy regarding the long ball.

Coming into this Spring Training, Balazovic needed to set a new tone. Instead of accomplishing that and impressing the big-league staff, Balazovic got punched square in the jaw. While he contends that it was a surprise and unprovoked attack, there is no denying it was a distraction and could have been avoided by choosing different whereabouts.

Instead of impressing the Major League staff, Rocco Baldelli and his coaches sent a message to Balazovic.

Balazovic is not an old prospect, as he will pitch all of this season at 24 years old, but he isn’t viewed the same as he was a year or two ago. After putting up lackluster results all season, Minnesota needs to see more. The starting pitching depth may be better than ever, and with the emergence of talents like Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson, Balazovic has been knocked down in the pecking order.

For everyone involved, the hope would be that the message was received loud and clear. It stands to reason that Balazovic wouldn’t have been happy being jettisoned so quickly from big league camp, but there is no time for him to stew on it. As minor league action gets underway on the back fields, Balazovic will again be ticketed to Triple-A. He can start the turnaround by dominating hitters this spring, and we’ll need to take those same efforts with him up to St. Paul.

Last season Balazvoic didn’t make his debut until May. He’ll be months ahead this time, assuming the preparation is on track. He can go a long way toward making the impression he wanted to make in Florida by coming out strong. The talent that landed him on national prospect lists isn’t gone, and the knee issues that hampered him a year ago should be in the rearview mirror.

Maybe this spring wasn’t a reflection of maturity or anything but a culmination of some bad luck. The 70 innings last year reflect results that Balazovic can’t continue to be tied to, however, and putting up some sparkling numbers again is what he needs to get on track with. As the Twins continue to sort out their depth pitching plans, it would be good for the Canadian to force his way among them.

No matter how much depth the Twins have on the mound, more is always a good thing to find. Balazovic represents an opportunity for the organization to see a come up in a big way, and all parties involved would be thrilled to see that outcome. The physical altercation may have hurt more, but Minnesota hopes the mental message hits home harder.

Testing. As we each race to be the first person to put the cart before the horse of 2023 Spring Training Flavor of the Week Edouard Julien, it’s worth taking a minute to consider where the lad will play. He’s not renowned for his defensive chops, but he may be able to hit well enough to stick at second base.

“Gregg, you lout!” you might be saying, “You messed up the phrase; it’s ‘defends well enough to stick at second base.’” Allow me to explain.

Many are familiar with the concept of the defensive spectrum. shortstop, catcher, and centerfield are the most demanding positions, whereas first base, left field, and designated hitter are the easiest. Most players are moved down the spectrum as they are proved incapable of being one of the best defenders in the world at each position. There’s no shame in it.

However, the further one moves down the spectrum, the more their value is derived from their ability to hit. Andrelton Simmons made an 11-year career out of a bat 13% below league average. He wouldn’t have even been drafted if all he could play was first base.

Teams will give players as many chances as possible before sliding them down the spectrum, so Julien played exclusively at second base in 2022 at AA Wichita. The Twins are in luck if his big bat can stick at second. Playing Julien at second (or third, for that matter) frees up playing time for even less gifted defenders who can only play first base or designated hitter.

You don’t have to believe in the value of WAR as a statistic to agree with a basic premise: a player should create more offensive runs than they give up defensively. If the bat is good enough, teams can deal with suboptimal defense.

Two prime examples of this working out are the cases of Gary Sheffield and Derek Jeter. Sheffield played shortstop, third base, left field, and right field during his career, and he was awful at each spot. Sheffield was an approximate 80 WAR hitter for his career but lost approximately 20 WAR because of his defense. Still, he hit well enough to have a strong Hall of Fame case.

Most people are also familiar with Derek Jeter’s defensive woes. The Captain—never moved off short—is regarded as a poor defender due to his lack of range, despite his Gold Gloves and propensity for highlight plays. It wasn’t the end of the world for either player because their bats more than made up for their defensive ineptitude.

Julien isn’t on a fast track to the Hall, but if he hits enough, he can make it work at second base despite his lack of range and arm. Scouting reports are not kind to the young Canadian, as FanGraphs and MLB rate his defense as a 30 and a 40 on the 20-80 rating scale, respectively.

The Twins themselves have dealt with bat-first infielders in recent years. Jorge Polanco certainly made it work. Despite his defensive struggles, he was named to the 2019 All-Star team as the starting shortstop.

He hit 20% higher than the league average that year, with a slash line of .295/.356/.485 and 22 home runs. Even after his move to second base, where he is still a slightly below-average fielder, he hits enough to be consistently rated in the top 10 second basemen in MLB.

Luis Arraez, often the first comparison drawn for Julien, given his positional “flexibility” and high on-base skills, was moved to first base out of necessity. Arraez has been an average-to-below-average second baseman, but he can be an option there because of his excellent on-base skills.

In 2022, he was named an All-Star with a .338 batting average at the break. Although he struggled down the stretch with nagging injuries, he still hit 30% above league average for 2022 and was an above-average big league regular throughout the year.

However, Julien’s defense appears worse than Polanco’s and Arraez’s. Although he shouldn’t at this time be expected to make an All-Star game in his career, he probably needs to hit somewhere in the same ballpark as Polanco and Arraez to overcome the additional runs he would give up as an everyday second baseman.

Two other fun examples are worth mentioning. Daniel Murphy could affectionately be called a first baseman playing second base. Through his first seven years in the league, he hit about 10% better than the league average, and although he gave up many runs with his poor defense, he was still a solid regular.

Then, in 2016, he hit a blistering .347/.390/.595 with 25 home runs and a league-leading 47 doubles. His defense was no longer a consideration. When you win the Silver Slugger, how you field doesn’t matter much. Eventually, he did move to first base, though Father Time was also catching up to him, and he couldn’t produce enough to be a Major League first baseman.

Alfonso Soriano, another slugging second baseman, won the Silver Slugger three times in his five years as an everyday second baseman. He also led the league in errors at second base all five years before being moved to left field.

All things considered, errors aren’t the most reliable statistic, but leading the league in them at your position is not a good thing. Still, Soriano was an All-Star four times during that stretch, hitting approximately 20% higher than the league average.

If Julien comes up and tears the cover off the ball as he has at every level of the Minor Leagues, playing poor defense might not be the end of the world. However, his defense probably can’t be horrible without him being a Silver Slugger candidate to justify sticking at second base.

If he can improve defensively to merely below average, a solid bat might be enough for him to play there. He could also hit enough to justify bouncing between second, third, left, and first based on need, similar to early-career Arraez.

Also, Chuck Knoblauch.

In late-July of last year, the Twins were still grasping to a small division lead, with more holes seemingly appearing by the day. One of the biggest gaps in their roster at the time fell between superstar relief ace Jhoan Duran – and pretty much anyone else in their relief corps. Sure, Griffin Jax had built some trust equity from the skipper, as did Caleb Thielbar. They weren’t all-star caliber players, but they could be trusted to pass the baton in a relay that led to Duran. 

The team then went out and made a trade for the star-level arm that was desperately needed to help bridge the gap. 
Enter Jorge López. 

The former Baltimore Oriole was having a career-year when the Twins acquired him in exchange for pitching prospects Cade Povich and Yennier Cano. He had a fantastic 1.68 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 60% ground ball rate, leading to his first all star nod. His fastballs ran hot, with an average of 97.4 MPH for his four-seamer and 98 MPH on his preferred sinker, and he paired them with a slew of secondary offerings that have carried over from his time as a starting pitcher. His curveball, in particular, was a real weapon, with his slider and changeup serving as additional tricks up his sleeve. 
So Lopez had big strikeout numbers, got plenty of ground ball outs, and had two and a half years of club control at the time of the trade. What’s not to like?

While he wasn’t a train wreck with his new team, Lopez’s first two months as a Twin were disappointing based on the expectations that were set when the team acquired him. In that time, he had a 4.37 ERA across 23 innings pitched, due in large part to a walk rate (13.7%) that nearly eclipsed his strikeout percentage (17.6%).

Lopez’s sinker was his bread and butter in the first few months of the season, but its success trailed off considerably once the calendar flipped to July. In the first three months of the 2022 campaign, he allowed just 11 hits on that offering, but in the second half that figure nearly doubled to 20 (six of which went for extra bases). This pitch wasn’t just his most used offering, but it was a notable choice when deciding what to use as a “put away” pitch – or what he used in an effort to get a strikeout once he got to two strikes in the count. That rate for his sinker went from about 16.5% in April and May, all the way up to 29.6% in June and July, but then it plummeted to just 4.5% by the time September rolled around. 

That’s a big kick to his confidence in his best pitch. 

That "put away" pitch selection is vital to Lopez’s end results because he’s one of the best at getting to that point when facing opposing hitters, especially those that are right-handed. Last year, he was able to get at least two strikes in the first three pitches against 73% of the right-handed hitters that he faced, according to Inside Edge. Obviously that can be a huge advantage in the grand scheme of things, and indeed it was for the first half of last season when he had a 28.7% strikeout rate. But for whatever reason -- whether it was trying a different pitch mix, or his sinker lost some zip, or he wasn’t locating his pitches as well, or hitters were merely catching up to him -- he was unable to tap into that put away stuff in the second half. 

That could come across as a grim outlook going forward. Baseball fans suffer from perpetual recency bias, and Lopez’s most recent month of work was uninspiring. However, the Twins don’t need him to be the monster that he was for Baltimore in the first few months of last season. They just need him to be in the same mix as Jax and Thielbar, which is probably somewhere between the two poles that Lopez set last season. The Twins need him to be in that group of guys that can be trusted in a relay that leads to Duran taking on the highest-leverage situations at or near the end of the game. 

But what do you think? Can Jorge Lopez regain some of his value that the team had in mind when they traded for him? Or did the club get duped into buying-high on an inconsistent arm? Let us know your thoughts and expectations in the comments below. 

Neither is inherently evil, whether it's the pitch clock or your politics. The application of both is where it can get ugly quickly, and things may start to get a little awkward at family gatherings, and yes, I'm still talking about the pitch clock.

Love it or hate it, the new rules are here for 2023, and the Twins have built a team that can take advantage of the new era of baseball. With the shift changes, the pick-off rules, bigger bases, and the fact that the full season for an MLB player is roughly 150 games, the Twins used these facts to help coordinate roster moves.

The Twins offseason was a roller coaster ride for shmucks like me trying to figure out what was going on with this team. Now that the dust has settled, the picture is more visible. The front office has constructed a team with elite defense and some left-handed bats that can benefit from an open right side for the first time in their careers.

Defensively, teams with elite athletes that can cover ground and make superstar plays, rather than having a spray chart in their back pocket telling them where to play to create outs, will benefit the most. Athletes will be back making more outs, not data points. Having an elite defensive shortstop becomes way more attractive now that there will be a premium on being able to range to the left and right and make big-time throws. 

Now that shortstops can't swing to the other side of second base, we will see Carlos Correa (aka C4) ranging to his left and making that spin throw on the right side of second base a couple of times this year. I'm excited to see shortstops limited in their shifting ability and see some of the most impressive athletes in the world be able to show it off. The Twins get to be, arguably, the biggest beneficiary.

The Twins also brought in Joey Gallo, who we have seen with a wider stance, driving the ball to all fields early in spring. Even this tiny sample size is encouraging. With no shift and pitchers not having as much incentive to throw the cutter inside because there is no iron curtain on the right side, we could see Gallo finally flourish. With a simplified Gallo approach, fans may see a fun uptick from your dad's least favorite player (trademark pending).

Joey Gallo also fits the mold of the elite defenders that the team has placed a high value on; Michael A Taylor and the already-established Kepler/Buxton outfield combo may be worthy of a Soul Patrol-level nickname. The shift doesn't impact the outfield as much, but it's worth noting that the Twins attacked the defensive side of this team with the thought of improving their offense too, or the banned shift may provide that offensive uptick on its own.

Every team in the league has abandoned the idea of a guy playing 162 games. (In 2022, only Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson and shortstop Dansby Swanson played in all 162 games.) The depth and positional flexibility will make Baldelli's job pretty simple (that thought may get the old-timers to sleep at night). 

The Twins have solid defenders that can play all over. Farmer, Gordon, Solano, Gallo, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Taylor (fans will see him and Buxton in the same outfield) can all play multiple positions. So much tinkering can be done with this lineup and not lose the edge created defensively. There are quality options when a player gets a day off due to injuries, rest, or just putting the best nine out there on a given day.

The Twins aren't a finished product as it stands right now. More moves may be coming, but the Minnesota Twins will defend as well as anybody in the league as a unit. Great defense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark has the potential to be a phenomenal winning formula. It's getting to be time for the rubber to meet the road. I'm excited to start seeing the payoff of all the moves and top-tier defense returning in the MLB.

There is no doubt in my mind that Twins management took the new rules into account when building an elite defensive ball club for 2023. Regarding the rule changes, you can see the glass half empty or half full, but we should know by now that the Twins front office sees a glass that was made too big. They dealt with reality and facts and used that logic to create a competitive product for 2023.

Go, Twins!

Projected Starter: José Miranda
Likely Backup: Kyle Farmer
Depth: Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, Elliot Soto
Prospects: Brooks Lee, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Yunior Severino

THE GOOD
It already seems safe to say Miranda is either going to be a good hitter or a great hitter. The type of hitting prowess we've seen on display over the past two years doesn't happen by accident. His ability to mix huge pull power with a penchant for going the other way give him a balanced offensive attack that yields consistent results.

It's yet to be seen if the run-producing monster we saw in Miranda's scorching June and July as a rookie (.329/.373/.557) was more emblematic of what to expect than his pedestrian August and September (.261/.332/.378) but there's little question the kid is going to carry weight offensively.

Defense is another question. Miranda lacks the quickness, agility, and arm strength to be anything resembling a lock to stick at third, as we'll discuss. But he's hardly a lost cause there. He's got a good build for the position and made several slick plays at the hot corner in 2022. 

Even if he's not long for the position, Miranda provides crucial value to the Twins as long as he can hold his own at third, allowing the team to rotate additional quality bats through the first base and DH positions. This can provide a key competitive advantage that shows up in team results. 

Do we think it's a coincidence that of the top 10 individual finishers in wOBA at third base last year, nine were in the playoffs?

THE BAD
As a rookie, Miranda made only 27 starts at third base, compared to 69 at first base and another 20 at DH. That seems telling. It's not like the Twins were abundant in great third base options, giving 131 starts there to Gio Urshela, whom they liked enough to trade for nothing at season's end.

When he played third last year, Miranda looked pretty rough, and he's been unable to shake away that memory this spring, with a shoulder injury preventing him from playing the field. That's not considered a long-term concern, but the Twins were already contemplating backup options at third even before this flare-up. 

Though they let Urshela go, the Twins built out their depth at third considerably over the offseason, acquiring three infielders – Farmer, Solano, and Castro – with significant MLB experience. That said, any of those three would be an average-ish regular at best, so the Twins need to hope their gamble on Miranda pays off, at least for a while.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Down the line, it sure feels like this position is Lee's for the taking, which is why I have the Twins number one prospect listed in the pipeline picture here despite all of his pro reps thus far coming at shortstop. Martin or Royce Lewis could also be a factor here. Or maybe, eventually ... Carlos Correa?

The big question is how long Miranda will provide the luxury of waiting on those promising young infield talents, or Correa's eventual move off short. Will Miranda show enough improvement to convince the Twins he's viable, giving them a competitive edge in the lineup, or will they fall back on a steady-yet-unspectacular backup option?

Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base

The Twins are a little over halfway through spring training. One notable absence from pretend game action: Byron Buxton. The oft-injured superstar hasn’t played an inning of pretend baseball yet. The team says it’s standard operating procedure for players returning from injury. Doug Spivey is taking them at their word.

Until Thursday, March 16th.

“If he isn’t in the lineup by then I am flipping my [EXPLETIVE],” said the Eveleth pipefitter. “What if he’s out half the season? What if it’s career-ending? I’m going to freak the [EXPLETIVE] out and that is a promise.”

The Twins open the season at Kansas City on March 30th.

“By then it’ll be two weeks on the nose until the regular season,” said the 52-year-old. “Right now, I’m calm and cool. Let him work out behind the scenes, trust the process, embrace serenity. But at midnight next Thursday I’m going to run shirtless around town, weeping and wailing.”

At least one Twins expert agrees.

“I’m not conspiratorial about this at all,” said Twins Daily founder John Bonnes. “I don’t think there’s anything they’re trying to hide from us. The games aren’t as important as the rehab. He knows how to field and hit. But! If he’s not playing in a week, I will be rending garments and screaming for justice. I will drink IPAs that aren’t fruit-forward with notes of passion fruit and mango. I will lose my mind.”

Spivey says he’s noticed an uptick in internet chatter about Buxton’s absence.

“Once Correa started playing, I think everyone assumed Buxton would follow suit,” said Spivey. “And then he didn’t, and the comments sections started getting real suspicious about what was quote really happening unquote. I still think we’re fine and I have a big grin on my face for the upcoming season.

“However, I’m prepared to apologize to Reddit user frankviolamustacheride42069 if it turns out Buxton is still banged up. I was wrong to doubt you, frankviolamustacheride42069.”

The Twins face the Orioles today at 5:00pm. Buxton is not expected to play.

“I’m still not worried,” said Spivey. “Every moment spent waiting is agony, but I'm not worried.”

The Twins signed the player who may be the hardest to remember from the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series roster at bar trivia to a minor-league deal. Andrew Stevenson, 28, spent all of his 2022 season at the Nationals Triple-A affiliate, the Rochester Red Wings. He had been removed from their 40-man roster early in the season and was never called back up. 

Stevenson had spent his entire career in the Nationals organization. He made his MLB debut in 2017 and accumulated 449 plate appearances in 248 games from 2017-2021. 

His greatest asset is his defense, but Stevenson has shown flashes of offensive production at times in the minor leagues and in the big leagues. During the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Stevenson posted a .366/.447/.732 (1.179 OPS), though it was in just 47 plate appearances. 

His 2022 season with the Red Wings was solid. He hit .279/.344/.457 (.801) with 16 home runs and 67 RBI in 135 games for the Red Wings. 

Stevenson’s addition to the Twins organization is great for any pending injuries. However, the possibility of his call-up would likely entail injuries to the other left-handed hitting outfielders including Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Mark Contreras. 

The timing of the signing is interesting. Gilberto Celestino had surgery on his thumb and will miss two months while rehabbing. Plus, the plan was to let him develop in St. Paul this season anyway. Byron Buxton has yet to play this spring. Nick Gordon has been out with a high ankle sprain. Could it mean those players will be out longer than anticipated? Alex Kirilloff has also not played in a spring game yet which might mean that Joey Gallo may find himself at first base early in the season. Providing the Saints with some outfield options is also wise. 

Stevenson will likely receive nearly every day playing time with the Saints. His hitting abilities will be exciting to see against Triple-A pitching. If Stevenson ends up in a game for the Twins, hopefully, it will be due to hitting too well to ignore and not due to injuries. 

While this is just a minor-league signing, what do you think it means? Discuss in the COMMENTS below. 

There is no question about what Jhoan Duran meant to the Minnesota Twins during his rookie campaign. He immediately became one of baseball’s most dominant late-inning relievers. In 67 2/3 innings, he allowed 14 earned runs (1.86 ERA) with 89 strikeouts and 16 walks. He showed the Twins could use him in multiple situations, including closing games, multi-inning appearances, and getting the club out of jams. Duran led all AL pitchers in Win Probability Added while establishing himself as vital to the team’s long-term plans. 

Duran is entering his sophomore season so he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025 season, and his earliest free agency is 2028. He has yet to make life-changing money, and that can be a good window for a club to approach a player about a long-term deal that buys out some of his free-agent years. For both sides, there isn’t a rush to do this, but these types of deals typically happen before a player reaches the arbitration process. Here are some pros and cons of getting a long-term deal for Duran. 

Pro: Cost Certainty 
Earlier in the offseason, the Mets signed Edwin Diaz to a five-year, $102 million contract, the richest reliever contract in history. He was scheduled to become a free agent, but the Mets ensured he didn’t reach the open market. It seems unlikely that the Twins will spend over $100 million to sign a relief pitcher because this front office has relied on internal options to fill bullpen roles. Other recent contracts might be more similar to what the Twins can offer to Duran. 

Entering last season, the Guardians signed Emmanuel Clase to a five-year, $20 million extension. The deal included a $2 million signing bonus and two option years (2027-28) at $10 million each. Incentives can make those option years worth $13 million, and they buy out his first two free agency years. Duran is a couple of months older than Clase, but Clase had roughly the same amount of service time as Duran when he agreed to his extension.

Pro: Investing in Bullpen
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shied away from multi-year contracts for relievers. Addison Reed is the only reliever signed to a multi-year contract during their tenure. The Twins gave him $16.75 million, and he was limited to 56 innings because of multiple injuries. Reed was only 29 when he signed with the Twins, and he had been one of baseball’s most reliable relievers. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t pitch again at the big-league level following the 2018 season. 

At some point, the Twins will need to invest in the bullpen. No one knows what baseball revenues will look like in five years, and Joe Pohlad has noted that he expects the team’s payroll to rise in the coming years. Minnesota is entering the 2023 season with the highest recorded payroll in team history at $157 million, which ranks 17th in baseball and second in the AL Central. Duran differs from many relievers, and the Twins should make a statement by investing in him.  

Con: Health
One of the main reasons Duran is in the bullpen is because of his health issues throughout his minor-league career. The Twins managed to keep Duran healthy during his rookie season, but there are no guarantees he will stay healthy in the future. Injuries highly impacted Minnesota’s roster last season, so the club might not want to invest significant capital into any pitcher, especially those with injury concerns. 

Reliever usage continues to evolve, and the Twins may continue using Duran in multi-inning appearances. Last season, the Twins were very careful with Duran and used him for more than an inning in 14 of his 57 appearances. It seems likely for that number to increase in the years ahead, but there are no guarantees his body can hold up to that increased workload. He has been a starter in the past, but there are scheduled rest days between appearances that aren’t guaranteed for a bullpen arm. 

Con: Age
The Twins already have Duran under team control through his age-29 season. Even if he is baseball’s best reliever during the next five seasons, do the Twins want to guarantee him money into his early-30s? Clase’s contract has team options ($10 million) with buyouts of $2 million per season. That could help the Twins to approach this contract since they could get out of the deal for a relatively small amount. 

Minnesota has been spoiled with All-Star caliber relievers in the past, like Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Duran can enter the same category, but not all relievers can be this good. Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season. Few relievers can be among baseball’s best for more than a few seasons. 

Can you see the Twins reaching out with a deal similar to Clase? Is the timing right for an extension or should the Twins wait until next offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The Twins have played with using a long reliever in the bullpen at times in the last few years and found that the role is inconsistent and sometimes not worth the trouble. In 2021, Randy Dobnak made the team as a long reliever as the team’s assumed sixth starter. The downside became evident almost immediately. When starters exited in a close game, it made more sense to go to a high-leverage reliever to keep the game intact. The Twins almost never found themselves having a sizable lead or deficit when the starter exited. Dobnak would go upwards of a week without throwing a single pitch, and he looked like that was very much the case when he did finally get some action.

It can be argued that we learned that a long reliever role can’t be filled by a legitimate starting pitching option, at least not if you want them to develop or be ready to fill in if a member of the rotation goes down. This leaves the role to such a specific type of player that it becomes kind of hard to believe the Twins would actually choose to dedicate a roster spot to such a role. That being said, Rocco Baldelli continues to hint that he would prefer to go this route, so it’s worthwhile to explore some options on who could fill such a role. 

Cole Sands
Sands is already walking the starter/reliever tightrope. The Twins were clear they weren’t planning on anyone making a formal switch from starting to relieving this spring, but Sands was listed as the closest arm to doing so. Sands already holds a 40-man roster spot and has options remaining, making him a prime candidate to serve as a long man on Opening Day. He also made spot appearances in this role in 2022 on occasion.

Sands is far from the next man up in the rotation, and for this reason, may serve this role better than someone like Bailey Ober who needs to be ready to fill a traditional starter’s role on a moment’s notice. Sands could use the opportunity to acclimate himself to a bullpen job, which seems like an eventual certainty for his career. He should still be able to provide 3+ innings of work in a pinch as well, which makes him a decent candidate.

Randy Dobnak
While a long shot, it could once again be Dobnak to fill a long relief role. At this point, he’s buried in the rotational depth chart. He finally appears to be healthy, and while his unbelievable numbers in his debut are unlikely to be repeated, Dobnak could be serviceable and durable, making him a solid fit.

The issue of course is Dobnak’s lack of a 40-man spot after being outrighted off the 40-man roster this winter. The Twins can easily make space if they feel he’s the best man for the job. Though the money they committed to Dobnak is inconsequential, they do owe him a few million in the next few years. If he’s in a good place health-wise, the Twins could very well decide to get their money’s worth and see if Dobnak can make a resurgence in a different role. He’s been used more or less as a starter so far this spring, meaning he should be physically capable of filling bulk innings if his previously ailing finger is right.

José De León
The deepest of sleepers, De León is a former top prospect that was discussed as part of a return for Brian Dozier back when he was in the Dodgers system. Injuries have derailed a once-promising career, but he’s still fighting for a roster spot at 30 years old. De León came out on Sunday and showed that he still had plenty left in the tank, allowing two hits and one run in three spring innings and striking out six.

De León may not have a 40-man spot or options, but the right-hander is in a perfect situation with the Twins able to open a spot on the 40-man roster with ease. Rather than putting one of their young arms in an inconsistent role, the Twins could opt for adding a veteran to fill this job while being prepared to cut bait if it goes poorly. Keep an eye on De León’s performance in the World Baseball Classic in the coming weeks as well, as he’ll be departing to pitch for Puerto Rico this week.

There are other candidates that could take a long relief role and do reasonably well, but it’s likely the Twins avoid using young prospects such as Josh Winder or Simeon Woods Richardson because of the inconsistency that comes along with the job. Instead expect the Twins to look towards former starters turned relievers or more of the veteran expendable types to fill the role, if the Twins choose to go this route at all.

Are there any candidates you’d like to see take the long reliever role? Should the Twins bother using a long reliever at all? Let us know below!

‘In these rounds, you’re looking for something special, something unique’, Sean Johnson, Scouting Director for the Minnesota Twins offered, reflecting on day 2 of the 2022 MLB Draft. Johnson went on to highlight the organization's focus on unique tools coupled with breakout performances as two elements used to hone in on talent. In Ben Ross, the Twins landed a prospect with plenty of interesting clay to mold. 

With the 144th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins selected Ben Ross, a shortstop out of Notre Dame College in Ohio. The school only started its baseball program in 2005. In 2013, they jumped from NAIA to Division II. Hence, Ross was not ranked in Baseball America’s Top 500 prospects heading into the draft. He signed for the Twins for $220,000, significant savings on the $398,500 draft slot. The savings from Ross and others were later applied to talented shortstop Omari Daniel, who the Twins pried away from a commitment to Oregon, in the 14th round.

Scouting Notes
Ross is a 6’1 shortstop and an exceptional athlete. While Ross may not have been highly ranked on draft boards, he’s exactly the kind of breakout athlete the Twins target on Day 2 of the draft. Ross has a compact swing and is short to the ball. Ross had an all-around breakout in his final season at Notre Dame College, putting together 14 home runs, 60 RBI, a .747 SLG, and 15 stolen bases in 17 attempts in 52 games. Not bad.

Ross’s breakout continued in the summer in advance of the draft after playing in the Northwoods League (a college wood bat league). Ross hit .421/.502/.649 with 10 HR, 27 BB, and 28 K. Ross has a plus run tool and is an intelligent base runner and successful base stealer. He has an above-average arm and an athletic profile that could play all over the diamond. Ross’s swing is such that he should be able to continue his power breakout with a short, powerful stroke.

Ben Ross debuted in late 2022, playing two games of Rookie ball before being promoted to Low-A Fort Myers. In his first 22 games, Ross managed a .371 OBP (.817 OPS), with three homers and 13 RBI. Ross was also 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts, an impressive debut for the 21-year-old.

Likely to Start At: Low-A Fort Myers
It’s likely Ross begins 2023 with a deep group of young prospects at Fort Myers. He will have a whole season to show he can continue to translate his exceptional athleticism into tangible developments on the field. Some fans might grumble at Ross’s low ranking or placement on pre-draft lists; I’d argue he’s a name to watch in the low minors in 2023. 

What did you think of the Ben Ross pick? What do you think his ceiling is with the Twins?

For more Ben Ross content on Twins Daily, click here. 

Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco
Likely Backup: Donovan Solano
Depth: Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Tanner Schobel

THE GOOD
In the 2021 season, his first spent playing second base, Polanco ranked fifth among MLB players at the position with 4.2 fWAR, instantly establishing himself as an elite player at his new infield home. 

He launched 33 homers, drove in 98 runs, and was an easy choice for Twins Daily MVP. Polanco provided middle-of-the-order production from a middle-of-the-infield spot, which is a recipe for huge value. The Twins will hope to get him back there in the season ahead.

Polanco's absence in September last year was jarring: he's one of the few Twins players who has been able to avoid the injured list in his career, ranking second only to Max Kepler in plate appearances for the franchise since 2017. 

If Rocco Baldelli can reliably write Polanco's name into the lineup on a regular basis, he'll feel confident in what they're getting from second base. Polo's been a good if not great hitter almost every year, including 2022 when he was 17% above average, and he's still not yet 30. His switch-hitting ability makes him an everyday staple.

The loss of Luis Arraez during the offseason subtracted a key depth piece at second, but the Twins backfilled with a couple of veterans in Farmer and Solano, who would both be capable if uninspiring regulars at the position should Polanco miss time. 

Adding to their depth here, the Twins have a handful of near-ready infield prospects who could factor at second base in the short term – most notably Julien, who's seen plenty of time there this spring while really impressing with the bat. Martin and Royce Lewis are also realistic candidates to see time at second this year.

THE BAD
Polanco's lengthy run of durability came to halt in the latter part of the 2022 season. He didn't play after August 27th, plagued by a nagging knee tendinitis issue he couldn't shake. According to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Polanco spent much of his offseason rehabbing the injury. 

He's been noticeably slow to ramp up in camp. The 29-year-old still hasn't appeared in a spring game, and while that's not quite yet a red flag, it will be a week or two from now. As with so many other players on this Twins team, it is the ambiguity and lack of information around Polanco's health situation that makes it so inscrutable.

What was true at first base is also true here: the Twins have enough credible depth to sustain losing their starter, but such a scenario would also entail a huge drop-off in upside. The idea of Alex Kirilloff and Polanco holding down the right side of the infield is exhilarating. Alas, we've yet to see either of them on the field this spring.

THE BOTTOM LINE
A healthy Polanco is an excellent piece to have at second base. He has played at an All-Star caliber level in two of the past three full MLB seasons and could easily be one of the team's most critical fixtures this year.

But the lower-body injuries have clearly taken their toll on Polanco, who's undergone multiple ankle surgeries in the past. He's in his last guaranteed year under contract, and as mentioned, there are several young middle infielders in this system on the rise, so the coming season could be a pivotal one for the longest-tenured Twin's future with the franchise. 

Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base

Jaylen Nowlin grew up in Atlanta, Georgia. His parents encouraged him to play many sports and keep busy, so he did, and in doing so developed some great friendships. Once he reached high school, his focus turned solely toward baseball. That decision appears to be the right one for the talented lefty. 

At Westlake High School, he teamed with Lawrence Butler, one of the top prospects in the Oakland A’s organization. He had committed to West Virginia, but the A’s selected him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He had a solid season in the High-A Midwest League in 2022 and a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Butler was added to the 40-man roster last November and has a chance to debut in 2022. Through seven spring training games, he is 8-for-14 (.571) with three doubles, a triple, and a home run. 

With a few players who are now pros and several who played in college, how good was their team? Nowlin admitted, “Shockingly, not that good. We had the talent, but we definitely lacked the discipline. We had a lot of fun, but discipline was probably our weakest point.” 

In the summers, Nowlin and Butler played on a local team in regional and national Perfect Game tournaments and did very well. Former Atlanta Braves outfielder Marquis Grissom led the team. His son, Marquis Grissom, Jr., was on the team. He went to Georgia Tech and was drafted by the Nationals in 2021. Also on the team was 2022 National League Rookie of the Year, Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris. Harris was called up to Atlanta from Double-A at the end of May, and he went on to use an incredible toolset to hit for average, showed his power, and showed great speed on the bases and in center field.  

Marvin Freeman spent parts of 10 seasons in the big leagues. He was the pitching coach on the team. Along with Grissom, they provided some much-needed mentorship. “Those two have really pushed my career along since I was like 14 years old. Marvin Freeman is the best pitching coach I could ever ask for. He is just a guru with it. He knows how to make everything make sense, help out, and have all the cues. Without him, I would be a different pitcher right now.” 

Nowlin recalls, “There was a lot of competition on the team and a lot of competition that we placed against.” He later said, “We did some damage in those Perfect Game tournaments. We were a deep team, pretty much an all black team. A deep team too. We had a lot of talent.” 

Jaylen Nowlin has been around excellent players for a long time. He was putting up a quality resume in his own right. He had committed in high school to Jackson State but instead went to Chipola College in Florida, one of the best junior colleges nationally every year. In 2021, Nowlin pitched in 16 games and 42 innings. He walked too many (24), but he struck out an incredible 59 batters (44% of batters faced). 

Nowlin said of the experience, “That’s where my development really took off. I struggled early on, but the pitching coach got to me, and that’s when we started hammering down on just  throwing strikes.” 

He committed to pitching at the University of Alabama-Birmingham in 2022. But then came the draft. He was at home with his parents and a few friends. It took awhile, but finally, in the 19th round, he heard his name called as the pick of the Minnesota Twins. 

He quickly signed and got to work. He pitched in just one FCL game during the season. It was during Instructs that Nowlin started to make his name known. Reports were that the lefty was hitting 97 with his fastball and showing a sharp slider. 

The southpaw started his first full minor-league season in Fort Myers. He pitched in 19 games, including 11 starts. He was part of one of the two Mighty Mussels no-hitters. 

David Festa started it. Nowlin pitched in the middle, and Hunter McMahon finished it off. “Once I came in, I just came in and threw. I had no idea that they had no hits at that point until I came out and Hunter came in. I was just going in there, doing my job, like normal. Once we finished the game and they started throwing the water everywhere, I was still pretty much confused.”

 He ended the season with three starts for Cedar Rapids before their playoff run. “I was happy to be able to make that step, just to reach another level. I just want to be able to continue to progress every year, get better as much as I can, and move up as fast as I can. So moving up to Cedar Rapids was a great experience for me, and I was very appreciative of it.” 

Nowlin has a three-pitch mix primarily. His fastball sits in the mid-90s but has reached 97 at times. He’s got a good, sharp slider, and he also throws a changeup. He says he also likes to throw a two-seamer every once in a while too. Along with stuff, Nowlin thinks he’s got the right mentality. “It’s me throwing every single pitch I have with conviction. It’s just trying to let everything eat, throw it down the middle, and see if they can hit it. I like to test batters to see if they can hit it. I try not to do too much. Keep everything simple. Shove it right down the middle and see if they can beat me.” 

Combined, he threw 71 innings and had a remarkable 111 strikeouts (14.1 K/9). He also had 36 walks, which is more than he would want and something to focus on in the offseason. Lowering that walk rate is just one of his goals heading into the 2023 season. 

And in the offseason, he spends a lot of time with his friends. “We’re a tight group. Me, Mike, Marquis, Lawrence. We’re a tight group. We work out together in the offseason. We’re always with each other, playing a game together, working out, or just chilling at each other’s houses.” 

Nowlin says he is ‘definitely a goal guy, highly goal oriented. Keep progressing. Get to Double-A as fast as I can. Move up as much as I can this year. Get better every day.” 

Jaylen Nowlin has been in Fort Myers preparing for the season since mid-January. His strikeout rate and stuff have him entering most Top 30 Twins prospect rankings. He and fellow 2021 Day 3 draft pick David Festa are two Twins pitching prospects to move up most in 2022. Can Nowlin take another big step forward in 2023?

For more Jaylen Nowlin content on Twins Daily, click here. 

After reading one article on quantum physics, I decided I was prepared to build the first-ever functional time machine. I should have waited and watched how the 2023 Minnesota Twins season played out, but I just had to know now! I worked tirelessly constructing a device that could vault me to October to get a peak at how the season shook out. 

What I found may surprise some, so without further ado, here are five headlines from the Minnesota Twins 2023 season.

Joey Gallo Receives MVP Consideration

One of the more highly criticized moves of the offseason was the Twins signing Joey Gallo to a one-year contract. Despite being a two-time all-star for the Texas Rangers in 2019 and 2021, Gallo's career .199 batting average has turned off many of the more "traditional" style Twins fans. However, I am here to tell you that in 2023 Joey Gallo will exceed all expectations and find himself receiving MVP votes at the end of the season. With the new limitations of shifts, Gallo's batting average climbs to .234, and he continues to draw walks at a clip higher than 90% of the league-leading to a .398 OBP. Gallo also belts 38 home runs which are ... second most on the team?

Buxton Hammers 40 Bombs

Byron Buxton's health has been his Achilles heel throughout his career, playing in more than 92 games only once. However, Buxton's fortune changes in 2023, as he appears in 126 games for the Twins. Even though only 85 of those games are in center field, Buxton has a massive impact on the club, contributing 8.4 WAR. Buxton improves his 97th percentile rank in average exit velocity in 2022, bumping up to the 99th in 2023. Buxton remains one of the most elite power hitters in the game, belting 41 home runs.

Pablo López Flashes Ace Potential

When the Minnesota Twins acquired López for Luis Arraez in a trade with the Miami Marlins, the thought was that López would best fit the rotation as a number two or three pitcher. Throughout the offseason, he worked on making adjustments to his pitches. He reshaped his slider to become more of a sweeper and worked on his cutter. Both these pitches work very well in 2023 and accompany his elite changeup nicely. His new pitch mix eventually leads López to posting a 12-4 record with a 3.24 ERA. I'm sure this news is music to Twins' fans' ears, but the following headline may be a bit more controversial.

Twins Go All in on Gallen at the Deadline

When the Minnesota Twins enter the trade deadline in first place in the AL Central for a second straight year, they have to choose an aggressive push, similar to last year, or mainly standing still as they did in 2019. This time, the Twins push every last chip in the middle of the table in pursuit of a championship. On July 31st, they acquire Zac Gallen from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Brooks Lee and Bailey Ober. The Twins use the depth they've built in the rotation and in the infield to acquire the ace they have been waiting for. Gallen gives the Twins a powerful arm they can lean on throughout the playoff push, plus team control through 2025.

A Star is Born

While the Twins' injury situation in 2023 is much less drastic than in 2022, they still experience some bumps and bruises. This causes prospect Edouard Julien to be called up to the major league club as an extra utility man. Julien continues to display a high-level OBP skill while adding extra power to his profile. He has a stellar campaign and comes in third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Gunnar Henderson of the Oriels and Oscar Colas of the White Sox.

Unfortunately, due to my lack of knowledge and experience, my time machine only brought me to October 1st, so I could not see how the Twins fared in the playoffs. I can tell you they exceeded regular-season expectations, going 94-68, winning the American League Central, and securing the number three seed in the AL behind the Astros and Yankees. 

One thing is sure; I am very excited to watch the 2023 Minnesota Twins!

What are your bold predictions for 2023? Let me know below! Go, Twins!

Over at Fangraphs, Dan Syzmborski has released his 2023 ZiPS projections, putting the Twins at 80 wins. They are a high variance team without question, and could have looked at adding another bullpen piece, but given the overall success of the offseason, that feels a bit low. I guess having a low floor is not appreciated by ZiPS and as we saw last year, the Twins’ floor isn’t pretty. Same goes for the White Sox who are projected for only 74 wins. Cleveland comes in at 83 wins, and some projections have them closer to 90. They’re new and interesting and clearly on the rise. But are they really that good?

The title of this article will tell you what I think, although it should be noted that the Guardians played excellent ball all year in 2022 and bulldozed the Twins and White Sox in September in legitimate fashion on their way to some fun playoff moments. They were also really healthy, but more on that later.

The most surprising reason Cleveland may take a step back this year is that their starting pitching has (momentarily) dried up. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are both legit and the ace argument could be made for either one, but overall this is a rotation built more on reputation than actual merit, with its combined 2022 bWAR of 12.0 ranking fourteenth in baseball, tied with the White Sox. As another point of comparison from a different era, the top four starters for the 2000 Twins posted 15.6 bWAR en route to a 69-win season.

The top two on Cleveland’s staff are amazing and better than anyone the Twins have had since Johan Santana, so don’t confuse my point. But Cal Quantrill is merely a solid number three and was a liability in the playoffs. Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, who both looked like building blocks just a few years ago, have regressed significantly.

“But Cleveland always finds pitching.”

Yeah we’ve all heard that. But if Civale and Plesac are injured or ineffective, expect to see a lot of Konnor Pilkington, Cody Morris and Xzavion Curry to start the year. Morris looked pretty good last year, and they have good prospects coming, led by Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams. But Espino has already sustained a shoulder injury (not his first) and is doubtful to see the majors this year, while a promotion of Williams would be very aggressive. Morris is also battling an injury. In short, there seems to be a gap between what’s here at the big league level and what’s coming in 2024-2025, which is likely why both ZiPS and ESPN rank Cleveland’s starting rotation below the Twins and White Sox for 2023. Yes, you read that right.

As far as the lineup is concerned, the Guardians made a name for themselves last year by spraying the ball around, stealing bases and doing “the little things.” Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, Óscar González and Andrés Giménez represent a solid top six, but they aren’t particularly imposing. They did add a couple of bats this offseason in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell. Bell can hit, and Zunino has a good defensive reputation and impressive power, hitting 31 home runs as recently as 2021. But Bell is also streaky, and Zunino is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome, which has killed more careers than torn UCLs lately. The team hit for a 99 wRC+ last year, so I don’t anticipate this turning into some elite offense even if Bell and Zunino have nice seasons.

Frankly, I don’t expect the pitching to do as well, either, even if Zach Plesac is visited by three ghosts and posts a 3.20 ERA in thirty starts. The reason?.

Injuries. Injuries happen to teams. There hasn’t been a team or person in history that has been able to figure out baseball injury prevention, and I don’t think the Guardians are the first. You wouldn’t know it, though. Here’s their injury report for 2022:

• Plesac fractured his pinkie punching the mound, missing a month.
• González missed a month with a strained abdomen.
• Franmil Reyes missed a month with a strained hamstring.
• Naylor missed two weeks coming back from his ankle injury in 2021.
• James Karinchak missed the first few months coming back from a shoulder injury.
• Luke Maile missed the first couple weeks of the season with a strained hamstring.
• Austin Hedges missed two weeks with a concussion.
• Civale did miss three separate months with various maladies. He was able to return and make a start in their elimination game against the Yankees, but that didn’t go great.

All of the above were available for the playoffs, even if Civale wishes he wasn’t. The only one who wasn’t was reliever Anthony Gose, who needed Tommy John surgery. His was the only season ending injury. That is also the only carryover injury certain to affect a player’s 2023 status.

That’s it. Cleveland losing Gose was not a major issue for them, as he was a converted outfielder with 27 career innings. 

By contrast, the Twins fell out of the AL Central race while losing nineteen players to season ending injury. Not all of them were crucial, but too many were.

To be clear, Cleveland’s training staff isn’t nineteen times better than the Twins’, and their players aren’t nineteen times less injury prone. They also aren’t nineteen times better at playing through injury, despite what miserable Phil Mackey stans on Twitter might have you believe.

Cleveland was projected for 79 wins last year, but being abnormally healthy has a way of beating projection models. Other highly healthy teams in recent memory? The 2022 Orioles and Mariners, as well as the 2021 Red Sox. Any cinderella-type team usually is accompanied by a lack of IL stints, but as the 2022 Red Sox can attest, that good fortune needs to be supplemented with additional talent or things can go south in a hurry. That’s asking a lot of Bell and Zunino.

As a baseball fan, I hope Cleveland is just as healthy in 2023, because they’re a good product for the sport and their manager is a lovable legend. But a team having its entire squad available minus one fungible reliever in October is unrepeatable, a scenario about as likely as throwing two perfect games. 

The Twins didn’t have enough depth last year and it cost them dearly. But they still somehow came into September tied for first. There is year to year variance and then there is one of the most charmed teams in decades winning the lottery and everyone thinking they earned it. As fun as they are and as good as they look in the long-term, Cleveland will be an afterthought while Minnesota and Chicago battle for the division this year.

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 

3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7
Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million.  

Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 

2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1
Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. 

Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 

1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9
FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. 

Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. 

Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. 

Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato

THE GOOD
In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup.

Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. 

But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently.

We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing.

Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence.

Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first.

Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline.

Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects.

THE BAD
As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. 

Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages.  

Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons.

Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff.

It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong.

The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year.

Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer.

Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. 

The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. 

"We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” 

They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.)

Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash.

The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect.

After originally planning to play for Puerto Rico, newly re-signed superstar Carlos Correa will be out of the tournament. He will miss some time this week however as his wife Daniella is scheduled to give birth to their second son. It’s the second time Correa will have missed an opportunity to play third base alongside countryman Francisco Lindor. In his place, Jose Miranda could have been the option at the hot corner, but he too will stay with the Twins as he rehabs a sore throwing shoulder.

Miranda and Correa aren't alone in stepping away from the tournament. Star reliever Jhoan Duran also opted out despite already touching 102 mph during live at bats. After signing with Minnesota, Donovan Solano decided he would take the time to acclimate with his new team rather than play in the tournament as well.

It appears as though Minnesota still has seven players on rosters for the tournament, and that’s where the focus should be as the action gets underway. Jose De Leon and Edouard Julien are probably the two players least likely to be on the Opening Day roster, but they join the likes of Pablo Lopez, Jorge Lopez, Christian Vazquez, Jovani Moran, and Emilio Pagan as participants.

With respect to those playing, here’s some things you should be looking for:

Health
First and foremost, the Twins don’t need to see injury for any of their players competing in the tournament. The expectation will be that players and managers operate with a focus on the regular season. Although there is a certain desire to win the tournament, each player knows their season ahead is most important. Having already seen Nick Gordon and Austin Martin fall injured during Spring Training, Rocco Baldelli certainly doesn’t want to see more issues for any of his potential players.

With Vazquez slated to be Minnesota's Opening Day starter behind the dish, him remaining healthy throughout the tournament is paramount. Minnesota has seen Gary Sanchez be ineffective while both Mitch Garver and Jeffers have missed time in recent seasons. Vazquez isn't expected to be an offensive juggernaut, but he's a reliable talent defensively and the depth in the organization below the Major League level is not ideal.

Quality of Pitching
The pitchers representing Minnesota in the World Baseball Classic are a very intriguing bunch. Pablo Lopez is the headliner having just come over from the Miami Marlins, so seeing how he looks early against some real competition should be more than exciting. Depending on how De Leon is utilized, it’s Lopez that will be the only starter.

From a reliever standpoint, there couldn’t be more to monitor. Pagan did not show well in his spring debut, and tightening things up is a must if he’s going to instill confidence when he takes the mound. Jorge Lopez struggled after joining Minnesota last season, and returning to an All-Star level would be more than nice to see. Moran is certainly battling for a spot in the bullpen, and while he could have an inside track as a lefty, starting strong on a big stage could certainly do wonders.

Next Step for Julien
Thus far we have seen no reason to suggest that Julien’s bat isn’t legit. He raked everywhere last season in the minors, and then continued to do so during the Arizona Fall League. He has started nicely for the Twins this spring, and carrying that over to elite levels of competition for Team Canada is a must. Given his lack of defensive flexibility, the quality of his bat will be what plays, and if he can showcase it during whatever action he sees now, it could help to influence the timeline he sees in 2023.

Team USA is led by Mike Trout and a host of other superstars. The Dominican squad is absolutely stacked. The tournament itself should be a fun one, and there will be plenty of high intensity action to watch alongside the Spring Training games taking place down in Fort Myers.

Gilberto Celestino was acquired from Houston in the July 2018 Ryan Pressly trade. The Twins saw a raw but physically gifted outfielder who has steadily made his way up to the majors since. The fact that Celestino was able to do so speaks to his raw athletic ability above all else, as the last few years have included some difficult obstacles. Unfortunately, it appears he’s hit yet another significant roadblock this spring.

Celestino is a tiring topic for many fans. He hasn’t hit at the big-league level and has a history of mental mistakes, which has resulted in him being written off by some despite the fact that he’s still just 24 years old. As with all struggling players, there’s context.

It’s easy to look back and forget that Celestino was promoted directly from Double-A early in the 2021 season. He had played just 21 games at the level. Of course, that was after the 2020 season in which he played no games. And in 2019? He ended that season with eight games at High-A Fort Myers. 

The Twins had a need for center field depth, and Celestino was the best option available. For what it’s worth, he looked every bit the part defensively and has continued to do so. Unfortunately, he paired his defensive value with a .136/.177/.288 slash line in the MLB in 2021, which eventually led to a demotion to his first Triple-A stint. It was then that Celestino flashed his offensive upside, slashing .290/.384/.443. It earned him another shot in the big leagues to begin 2022. He started out hot before falling off a cliff at the plate. In 122 games, Celestino was 18% below the league-average hitter.

Despite his defense remaining pristine, the Twins had made up their mind that Celestino had to try to make up for lost development time not only from his rushed debut but from his missed 2020 COVID season in the minors. They traded for Michael A. Taylor to be the primary rigright-handedckup in center field. It was a welcomed development because of the prospect of Celestino finding his bat again in Triple-A and possibly developing into more of a solid future MLB player. 

Because of the development Celestino clearly needs, his recent injury hurts despite the fact that he had little to no chance to begin 2023 with the Twins. Taylor is a one-year rental and it was likely Celestino would again take over that role in the coming years. While this is still possible, Celestino will be behind to start the season after tearing the UCL in his thumb and likely missing 6-8 weeks. The hits just keep coming for the Twins young center fielder. 

Celestino may very well still play a role in the 2023 Twins season at some point. Injuries or just flat-out performance by the center fielder in St. Paul could force the issue down the stretch. The Twins are still hopeful that he can develop into a quality Major League player, but more seasoning is needed and the recent injury has put the possibility on hold. 

Before looking at his surface numbers and deciding Celestino isn’t a piece of the Twins future, just consider the path he took to get here and how much of a testament it is to his raw talent that he could still right the ship. Here’s hoping that Gilberto Celestino catches a break in 2023.

How did last season go?
Terrible. After a surprisingly competent showing in 2021, the Motor City Kitties fell back into their typical post-2016 swampy waters, finding themselves stuck in a 66-win quagmire.

It was a puzzling everything-that-could-go-wrong-did type of season. Their big free agent splashes in Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez capitulated; Rodríguez battled personal issues while Báez continued his lifelong struggle with sliders off the plate. A good team could overcome those things, but when mixed with overbearing injuries to young stars and poor play by their top prospects, Detroit’s 11-win slide isn’t much of an Agatha Christie mystery. 

Cruelly, almost any bright spot on the team comes with attached asterisks and lawyers' notes. Tarik Skubal was excellent to start the season, appearing on his way to finally grow into Young Ace territory before Flexor Tendon surgery curtly cut his year short; he will likely start 2023 recovering from surgery. Joe Jiménez figured out that you need to strike people out, not walk them, and limit homers… just to be traded to Atlanta following the season. So it goes. Eric Haase’s continued breakout might be the most notable positive for the team; he’s 30 with a poor glove.

What did they do this off-season?
The Tigers did what all underperforming teams do: tread water on the roster while cleaning up the muck internally. Was Al Aliva the problem? Who knows, but he’s gone, now replaced by former Giants brain man Scott Harris. Was the training staff poor? Maybe, but a clean sweep of the system will now ensure that, if injuries strike again, Detroit will at least have new people they can blame. 

That cleansing may be wise; the Tigers once claimed a hoard of talented pitching prospects—Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo, among others—but one after the other has either underperformed, fell victim of an injury, or faced some combo of the two. Only the aforementioned Skubal has established himself in the majors. That’s not a pattern Detroit can afford to repeat. 

Outside of the Jiménez deal, the Tigers’ most impactful move was sending Gregory Soto and his lethal stuff/minimal control combo to Philadelphia for a haul of fascinating players. Will Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, or Donny Sands be good? Who knows, but parting with a reliever to find the answer to that question is a worthwhile bet. They also brought back the prodigal son, Matthew Boyd, and paid $8.5 million to Michael Lorenzen to pitch a bunch of forgettable innings. 

What should we expect in 2023?
Perhaps it’s the madness of modern life sitting in, but the Tigers might be a compelling bounce-back team. It’s unlikely that the bats will be as historically dreadful as they were at parts in 2022, and their wall-moving project—a tasteful venture, unlike Baltimore's—should improve offense, at least a little bit. If Austin Meadows stays healthy and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene figure out major-league pitching, the lineup could be at least passable. 

The rotation is shakier. Mize is still on the mend after receiving Tommy John surgery, although his contributions were questionable to begin with, and Skubal just began throwing from flat ground. That leaves a strange hodge-podge of uninspiring veterans in Boyd and Lorenzon, rebound candidates in Rodríguez and Spencer Turnbull, and Manning’s impossibly low strikeout rate. It’s bizarre; this team is bizarre. They need a solid showing from their Faedos and Joey Wentzs to escape the AL Central doldrums. 

There’s little good news on the prospect front. Keith Law wrote that “[f]rom the 2016 through 2021 drafts, their top three picks by WAR to date are Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize … and John Schreiber, signed for $6,000 in the 15th round. Their international free-agent classes have been totally unproductive. And we haven’t seen many players get better once in the system over the last decade, whether they come in as reasonably polished players or not.” Other than that, things are fine. Jackson Jobe and Jace Jung—brothers in alliteration—pepper the back-end of top 100 prospects lists (so does the other Wilmer Flores, this one a pitcher), but the depth is malnourished, and Detroit lacks the history of identifying and fixing young talent. Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are interesting, though. 

Their future appears more unpredictable than Kansas City’s, but their upside could be legit. A.J. Hinch is a more-than-competent manager, and some elusive injury luck could spit out a team unlikely to compete for a playoff spot, but one who could flirt with .500 enough to make the effort seem worthwhile. Hopefully, Miguel Cabrera’s final season isn’t wasted on mediocrity. 

Projected Starter: Christian Vázquez
Likely Backup: Ryan Jeffers
Depth: Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, Chance Sisco
Prospects: Chris Williams, Noah Cardenas

THE GOOD
Acquiring a veteran catcher was a top priority for the Twins this offseason, and they got their guy, signing Vázquez to three-year, $30 million deal as arguably the second-best free agent at the position. The 32-year-old could hardly be described as a star, but that's not what the Twins were seeking: they wanted stability following a season where they enjoyed very little of it behind the plate.

Vázquez has had a few standout seasons, highlighted by a 2019 campaign where he slashed .276/.320/.477 with 23 home runs for Boston, but the Twins would be perfectly content with a repeat of 2022: average offense (99 OPS+) and steady defense combined with reliable availability. 

The Twins continue to believe in Jeffers as their future behind the plate, but the presence of Vázquez means they don't need to entirely plan around that scenario in the short term, which is probably wise given how things have gone for Jeffers over the past two seasons. 

While the righty-swinging Vázquez doesn't provide a platoon advantage, he's much more capable against right-handed pitchers and should allow the Twins to play Jeffers more to his strength against lefties, against whom he's slashed .263/.344/.450 in his career. 

Both are considered very solid receivers who pitchers like to work with, giving the Twins a more consistent level of quality behind the plate after Gary Sánchez (still unsigned) caught 714 innings mostly out of necessity last season.

THE BAD
The Twins really need to hope Vázquez can maintain his record of staying healthy, because an injury could put the Twins right back into a familiar spot of grasping for answers behind the plate.

Their depth was so sparse last year that when Jeffers went down for an extended period, they were forced to run out Caleb Hamilton for a few games and eventually acquired no-hit veteran Sany León from Cleveland's Triple-A team. He became more or less the primary starter.

Minnesota has built out its experienced upper-level depth a bit with Wolters, Greiner, and Cisco, but those three combined to play four games in the majors last year. Meanwhile, there's no position in the Twins organization with less in the way of immediate pipeline impact. As discussed in this year's top prospect recap, catcher continues to be an area of extreme scarcity in this system.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The front office desperately needed to strengthen the catcher position this past offseason, and while they did, it could still hardly be described as a strength. Although I guess that depends on your assessment of Jeffers. 

In some eyes, he could be viewed as one of the best backup catchers in the game – a still-developing impact starter who now has the luxury of coming along slowly with an established vet splitting time. If both guys stay healthy and Jeffers takes that next step, the Twins will have a catching setup that is the envy of the league. 

The thing is, it's hard to count on that. Jeffers has seen his OPS drop from .791 in a strong rookie campaign to .670 in 2021 to .648 last year, and has struggled to stay healthy. You don't have to squint to see the potential of a two-way asset – I was reminded of his raw power while watching him repeatedly hit absolute tanks in BP last week – but the 25-year-old is already inching toward arbitration without even a 1-WAR season to his credit.

Losing either of their top two backstops would force the Twins to delve into their murky depth, and while Vázquez has thankfully been pretty durable in the past, he also turns 33 this season.

Coming into spring training, it seemed that Trevor Larnach might serve as the Twins most regular designated hitter. With Joey Gallo looking to handle left field, Alex Kirilloff slated for first base, and Max Kepler still on the team, that was a fair thought. Things got murky when Donovan Solano was added to the mix. Kyle Farmer may take the first crack, but there will still be at-bats to go around.

Is it crazy to give some of them to Canadian prospect Edouard Julien?

Coming off an excellent season for Double-A Wichita, Julien went to the Arizona Fall League and continued to rake. He posted a .931 OPS across 113 games in the Texas League, and his 1.248 OPS during 21 Fall League games went on to beat it. Since being lured away from Auburn, and the Twins had to entice him plenty, all he has done is hit.

That is a good thing for Julien because he leaves plenty to be desired in the field. Mainly playing second base, he’d need an injury to starter Jorge Polanco for an opportunity to open. Even then, Solano, Farmer, or the now-injured Nick Gordon could stand between him and that chance. If his bat is going to carry, though, then maybe that is all Minnesota needs to play.

Rocco Baldelli’s bench should consist of backup catcher Ryan Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and a healthy Gordon. That group gives the manager plenty of flexibility. Should Gordon miss Opening Day due to his high ankle sprain, the spot may need to be taken by an outfielder. Neither Solano nor Farmer is an ideal fit on the grass, and Gordon has all but transitioned to being one. If there is a way for the final spot to be somewhat position-less (or multi-positional), then Julien’s spring isn’t slowing his chances.

Prospects aren’t expected to skip Triple-A entirely, and it usually happens with top-tier types such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, or Jose Berrios. Still, with Julien’s game being somewhat one-sided, he may need less refinement than those in a traditional scenario.

Every team will deal with injuries during the 2023 season, and that's one of the reasons the Twins added depth at nearly every position this winter. Here are the known injuries this spring and how each will impact the Opening Day roster. 

Jose Miranda: Right Shoulder Soreness
Miranda planned to join Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, but a shoulder injury has forced him to withdraw his name. He was the talk of TwinsFest after spending the off-season getting in better shape to handle the rigors of a 162-game season. Last season, he hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with 25 doubles and 15 home runs, but he tired down the stretch. The Twins are handing him the reins at third base, but his shoulder has limited him to designated hitter duties in recent games. He hit two home runs in a game over the weekend, so his hitting clearly isn't impacted by the soreness. 
Roster Impact: Miranda can switch to first base and DH if Alex Kirilloff isn't ready for Opening Day. The Twins have multiple third-base options, including Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, or Willi Castro.

Nick Gordon: Mild-to-Moderate High Ankle Sprain
High ankle sprains can impact players differently, but initial reports are that Gordon avoided a more severe injury. He was in a walking boot following Friday's game and will be off his foot to start the week. Gordon is looking to build off a breakout 2022 season where he was named the Twins Daily Most Improved Player. In 136 games, he hit .272/.316/.427 (.743) with 41 extra-base hits and a 113 OPS+. 
Roster Impact: Gordon was going to get time as designated hitter when the club was facing right-handed starters. He's also the backup at multiple outfield positions. If he's not ready to start the year, another left-handed bat like Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner might make the roster.  

Byron Buxton: Right Knee Surgery
Buxton has yet to appear in a spring training game after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee at the beginning of October. The Twins are taking it slow with Buxton while he ramps up for the season. Big league regulars see limited action in early spring training games, and that's one reason to hold Buxton out of these contests. He can get more focused work in the batting cages and on the back fields. Minnesota wants Buxton to play more than 100 games this season, which might mean he sees limited in-game action throughout the spring.  
Roster Impact: The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide depth in center field behind Buxton. In recent seasons, Taylor has been a starter for the Royals, and he can assume that role if/when Buxton is hurt. 

Jorge Polanco: Left Knee Tendinitis
Polanco was placed on the IL for the first time in his career last season, but that doesn't mean injuries haven't impacted him in the past. He's a player that has dealt with ankle and knee injuries for multiple seasons. Like Buxton, Polanco is taking things slowly at the start of spring training with more time in the training room. In 2022, he hit .235/.346/.405 (.751) with a 117 OPS+ and 32 extra-base hits. 
Roster Impact: Farmer or Solano can share time at second base if Polanco misses time. Two of the organization's top prospects, Brooks Lee and Eduoard Julien, have been praised this spring. Either player could be an option if Polanco has to miss significant time. 

Alex Kirilloff: Wrist Surgery
According to reports, Kirilloff continues to make progress from the wrist surgery that ended his 2022 season. It was the second consecutive season he missed time with a wrist injury. The Twins are taking it slow with him, and he likely will play in spring training games later in March. He is taking live batting practice with no pain in his wrist, which is a good sign from where he has been the last two years. Kirilloff was considered the team's top prospect before his debut, so hopes remain high for his future. 
Roster Impact: He's on track to be the team's first baseman or designated hitter to start the year. Solano, Miranda, Farmer, and Joey Gallo will get time at first base when Kirilloff isn't available. 

Trevor Larnach: Lower Body Injury
Larnach has been dealing with a lower-body injury, but the Twins expect him to play in games this week, including defensive duties in the outfield. In 2022, Larnach posted a 104 OPS+ but was limited to 51 big-league games because of a core muscle surgery. Larnach, a former first-round pick, was ranked as one of the team’s top prospects, and he’s shown signs of his powerful bat. The Twins hope he can put his injury concerns behind him and slide into the middle of the line-up. 
Roster Impact: Solano’s addition initially pushed Larnach out of the team’s Opening Day roster. With the other injuries on this list, Larnach can break camp on the 26-man roster if he is healthy.

Gilberto Celestino: Left Thumb Surgery
Celestino ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, which has six to eight weeks of recovery. Injuries forced the Twins to use Celestino in 122 games last season. In his age-23 season, he hit .238/.313/.302 (.615) with a 80 OPS+ and 15 extra-base hits. He has seen limited action at Triple-A, and this season was his opportunity to establish himself at that level. It is an important season for him to reestablish his long-term value to the Twins, but now that's pushed back a few months. 
Roster Impact: Celestino was scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he's had plenty of big-league experience over the last two seasons. Minnesota can move Celestino to the 60-day IL if they need the roster spot for a waiver claim, a signing, or a non-roster invitee. 

Jordan Balazovic: Broken Jaw
The Twins made a statement when Balazovic became the first (and only) player in the team's first round of cuts. He broke his jaw in an incident at a bar in downtown Fort Myers. Balazovic has significantly fallen over the last calendar year as he entered 2022 as one of baseball's top-100 prospects. Last season, he arrived at spring training with a left knee injury and could never fully recover. In 23 appearances (72 2/3 innings), he posted a 7.68 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP. He ended the season on a high note, but now he will have to wait to build off that performance. 
Roster Impact: Balazovic wasn't in the running for the Opening Day roster, but he is entering a pivotal season in his professional career. He saw multiple starters pass him on the way to the big leagues last season, and he didn't need another setback. 

Austin Martin: UCL Sprain
Martin has a UCL sprain in his right elbow, which means the team will shut him down from throwing and hitting. Sometimes this injury results in Tommy John surgery, which happened in recent years with players like Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien. Martin had a redeeming September and showcased those improvements in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .936 OPS. He was having a solid start to his spring, and the team expected him to impact the big-league roster at some point in 2023.   
Roster Impact: Martin was likely scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he was an injury or two away from making his debut. Now he will have to wait and see if rest and rehab can help him avoid going under the knife.

Ronny Henriquez: Right Posterior Elbow Soreness
Henriquez made his big-league debut last season after the Twins acquired him as part of the Mitch Garver trade. He made 24 appearances (95 1/3 innings) at Triple-A with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. In St. Paul, Henriquez was five years younger than the average age of the competition so some struggles can be expected against older hitters. The Saints rotation is set up to be loaded with top prospects, so finding him innings in a starting role might be challenging.
Roster Impact: Henriquez had an outside chance to make the team as a reliever, but the team may want him to continue to start. He’s only made 16 appearances at Double-A, so the team could send him to that level to start games.  

Which injuries will impact the Twins the most in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.