Official Day 1 Draft Thread

[Twins Daily Admin]

Here it is: our thread for Day 1 where we'll all race to update the various picks and live and die with each rumor and choice. I'm going to try and close the various other threads. Let's gather here.

 

(I'm feeling like somehow the Twins end up with Mark Appel. And I will NOT tolerate any calls for a return to reality.)

[InfraRen]

Here it is: our thread for Day 1 where we'll all race to update the various picks and live and die with each rumor and choice. I'm going to try and close the various other threads. Let's gather here.

 

(I'm feeling like somehow the Twins end up with Mark Appel. And I will NOT tolerate any calls for a return to reality.)

 

Can't wait!!! If the Big 3 go 1-2-3 I'm 100% Stewart. If there's a shake-up I prefer one of Gray, Appel or Stewart. Bryant would be fine, just prefer one of those 3.

 

Tomorrow!!

[twinsin17]

There has been a lot of talk about Twins targeting Kohl Stewart. By all accounts his "stuff" seems highly regarded in the scouting community. As a potential #4 pick shouldn't his stats show he has been dominating inferior HS competition? According to MaxPreps (Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X High School) Baseball Stats - MaxPreps) his numbers appear marginal at best. In 47.2 innings he has allowed 38 hits and walked 31 batters for a pedestrian 1.45 WHIP. He has struck out 42 batters (8.81 K/9) and has a 2.50 ERA. Not exactly an exciting stat line to say the least. Where is the line between projecting a prospect's future success and seeing in-game results? Is too much weight given to potential based on what a radar gun says? I would feel a lot better picking him if his results were more in line with the outstanding "stuff" you hear scouts raving about.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law backed up this Peter Gammons tweet that the Rockies are interested in Smith at #3. Update, also confirmed by McDaniels.

 

Peter Gammons @pgammo 6m

 

Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the ’Stros and Cubs @1-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @3 go 1B Dominic Smith.

 

A

[beckmt]

Still hoping the Twins go Gray or Stewart. If three pitchers go before the Twins, they probably should take Bryant(though I am not enthusiastic with this direction). Best for me would be Gray, but could not well get to #4

[Okie]

After lurking here for the past month, I finally had to register...couldn't take it any longer.

 

Stewart has grown on me so much recently that the only person I'd rather have is Appel. Bryant is equally intriguing, but I honestly look at him and Stewart to be at pretty much the same level, so I'd rather have a potential ace than another potential slugger.

 

With that said, though, Appel, Gray, Bryant, and Stewart are separated from the rest, and I don't want to see any of them fall past the Twins at #4. I don't want to deal with passing on one and potentially dealing with "what if we would have drafted _____" for years, and I especially don't want the Indians to be the ones reminding us of that. Obviously you run that risk with every player in the draft, and prospects in the MLB are the furthest things from sure things, but I just feel that each of these four could be special.

[snepp]

Link for convenience...

 

Twins Daily - Twins 2013 MLB Draft Primer

[John Bonnes]

Well, I'll take Bryant over Stewart (but Gray or Appel over either). After the year Bryant had - i feel like every team that passed on him is going to be wondering why they outsmarted themselves. I don't think his historical performance has had the time to sink in yet.

[Red Bull]

Well, I'll take Bryant over Stewart (but Gray or Appel over either). After the year Bryant had - i feel like every team that passed on him is going to be wondering why they outsmarted themselves. I don't think his historical performance has had the time to sink in yet.

 

Couldnt agree more, you cant pass on a guy that had that type of season for a super risky HS pitcher thats 4+ years away from the bigs. I think if he drops to the Twins they have to take him, it would be a steal for sure.

[Red Bull]

The more I think about it and talk to people I am wondering if the Twins could somehow mis out on Stewart, Appel and Gray. What if HOU takes Stewart because they want a pitcher with high upside and that is cheap which Stewart is both. Then CHC could take Appel or Gray and COL could take the other. Idk how likely that would be but it kinda makes sense...

[howieramone1406390264]

Well, I'll take Bryant over Stewart (but Gray or Appel over either). After the year Bryant had - i feel like every team that passed on him is going to be wondering why they outsmarted themselves. I don't think his historical performance has had the time to sink in yet.

 

Good point, but I don't think the Twins will. Can't pass up that type of power.

[Vera]

ugh all this is confusing. Im trying to learn stuff about the Twins and was reading all this and decided to sign up so I could ask for some info. Can you guys tell me some stuff about the Twins? School project btw...

[Vera]

lol its 3am and im doin school stuff, im guessing nodoby is on here?? oh well I will check tommorow...

[diehardtwinsfan]

ugh all this is confusing. Im trying to learn stuff about the Twins and was reading all this and decided to sign up so I could ask for some info. Can you guys tell me some stuff about the Twins? School project btw...

 

What exactly do you want us to tell you? There's lots of good reading material in these forums about our thoughts on our favorite team.

 

As for the draft, they need to take one of the big 4. I do really hope it's one of the pitchers, but if Stewart, Gray, and Appel go 1-3 in some order, Bryant is quite the consolation prize.

[markos]

There has been a lot of talk about Twins targeting Kohl Stewart. By all accounts his "stuff" seems highly regarded in the scouting community. As a potential #4 pick shouldn't his stats show he has been dominating inferior HS competition? According to MaxPreps (Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X High School) Baseball Stats - MaxPreps) his numbers appear marginal at best. In 47.2 innings he has allowed 38 hits and walked 31 batters for a pedestrian 1.45 WHIP. He has struck out 42 batters (8.81 K/9) and has a 2.50 ERA. Not exactly an exciting stat line to say the least. Where is the line between projecting a prospect's future success and seeing in-game results? Is too much weight given to potential based on what a radar gun says? I would feel a lot better picking him if his results were more in line with the outstanding "stuff" you hear scouts raving about.

 

Those are his 2011 stats from when he was a sophomore. Here are his stats from this past season: Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X High School) Baseball Stats - MaxPreps

 

40 innings, 13 hits, 16 walks, 59 SO and 0.18 ERA. (1 earned run allowed all season).

 

MaxPreps isn't the most intuitive about finding the correct seasons for players. I made the same mistake yesterday looking at Reese McGuire's stats.

[Badsmerf]

Couldnt agree more, you cant pass on a guy that had that type of season for a super risky HS pitcher thats 4+ years away from the bigs. I think if he drops to the Twins they have to take him, it would be a steal for sure.

It has been proven that a HS starter is no more risky than a college starter. College starters are just closer to the MLB. On the other hand, with a HS starter you can refine his delivery while he is young and monitor the stress put on the arm. IMO, college coaches can be pretty hard on arms. I just don't like the argument that since he is a HS pitcher he is "super risky."

[Blackjack]

Grey scares me because of the banned substance report. Coincidently his fastball is better and he has a great year?? Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole - or the 4th pick.

 

Don't like Stewart just because he is so young, a HS pick, lots of years for things to go wrong.

 

Really hope they get Bryant!!! For so many years the Twins were lucky to have one or two players with 20 HR's, would be nice to get Sano, Buxton, Bryant and some others together and do some mashing!! Think back to the days of Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti, Brunanski, one guy would get hot for a week and carry the team, when he'd cool off, then one of the others would get hot and carry the team. That was fun!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

It has been proven that a HS starter is no more risky than a college starter. College starters are just closer to the MLB. On the other hand, with a HS starter you can refine his delivery while he is young and monitor the stress put on the arm. IMO, college coaches can be pretty hard on arms. I just don't like the argument that since he is a HS pitcher he is "super risky."

 

Everybody knows high school pitchers are more prone to spontaneous combustion.

 

And it's really hard to get that "dead pitcher" smell out of the bus.

[PeanutsFromHeaven]

I'm intrigued by Adderall being a "banned substance". I'm about to give final exams to a horde of rampaging teenagers, and at least a few of them will have taken "Adderall" to help them focus (as it helps with ADD/ADHD--those with diagnoses and even those without try to take it at times). Does Gray have a diagnosis for Attention Deficit, or was it just supposed to be an added boost? I guess I could see how it might "enhance performance" but....

 

Thank goodness for Twins Daily, for years I thought I was a weirdo, alone in my interest in the MLB draft. Now I know that I'm a weirdo among many saner people who have an interest in the MLB draft.

[InfraRen]

Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd21m

And for those wondering my mock draft isn't done because I still have no idea what will happen tonight.

[InfraRen]

In a nutshell:

 

I'd be happy with Appel, Gray, Stewart, Bryant or Frazier.

 

I'd be very happy with Appel, Gray, or Stewart.

 

I know Bryant would be a steal, I just prefer a pitcher, but realize he'd be BPA.

 

If "Big 3" gone - give me Stewart please.

[InfraRen]

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson6s

Tom Windle's camp hears he has a good shot to go between 30-55 tonight. Some teams in play: Tigers, Royals, White Sox, maybe Twins. #gophers

[InfraRen]

Jim Callis Mock - 4.0 Just Posted:

 

4. MINNESOTA TWINS: Minnesota needs power arms, and assuming that the big three will be gone, I’ve had the Twins tied to Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart in each of my previous first-round projections. Now there’s word they may look in a different direction, but I think that’s mostly just frustration with how predraft talks have gone with the Texas A&M quarterback recruit. If they do pass on Stewart and there are no surprises in the top three picks, Minnesota likely would take Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire. Indiana high school lefthander Trey Ball, Nevada righty Braden Shipley and Frazier would be other options.

PROJECTED PICK: Kohl Stewart.

(Mock Draft 1.0: Kohl Stewart/2.0: Stewart/3.0: Stewart)

Mock Draft 4.0: The Final Countdown - BaseballAmerica.com

[markos]

This is a rather interesting article from BA about success/failure rates of Top 100 draft picks during the past 20 years.

 

Top 100 Draft Flashback: What Does It All Mean? - BaseballAmerica.com

 

Scouting/player development has changed a lot in the past two decades, so I'm not sure how meaningful the results from the early 1990s are. However, it does provide some interesting information. Additionally, this is an analysis of the top-100 picks in each draft, so these trends may not apply to the elite talents picked at the top of each draft.

 

Some takeaways:

 

1) College pitchers have a slightly higher probability of success than high school pitchers. In particularly, college left-handers are one of the safest picks for at least making it to the majors.

 

2) College position players have the highest probability of success, with 3rd basemen having the highest likelihood of all positions of both making the majors and being an impact player. (Kris Bryant anyone?)

 

3) High school position players are the riskiest draft picks, specifically HS outfielders.

 

Lots of other good nuggets of information.

[BUGuy37]

Those are his 2011 stats from when he was a sophomore. Here are his stats from this past season: Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X High School) Baseball Stats - MaxPreps

 

40 innings, 13 hits, 16 walks, 59 SO and 0.18 ERA. (1 earned run allowed all season).

 

MaxPreps isn't the most intuitive about finding the correct seasons for players. I made the same mistake yesterday looking at Reese McGuire's stats.

 

13 hits allowed in 40 innings pitched and only 1 earned fun allowed all year? Holy &%*$, my mind is unable to compute those numbers!

[InfraRen]

Chris Crawford Final Mock:

 

Twins - Stewart

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/06/the-mock-final/

[DaveW]

I'm not concerned Gray tested hot for adderall I am concerned that he wasn't smart enough to just go get a prescription for it, they hand those out like candy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not concerned Gray tested hot for adderall I am concerned that he wasn't smart enough to just go get a prescription for it, they hand those out like candy.

 

Hah. That was my first thought as well.

 

Really? Do we care about college kids taking Aderall? Considering the crap I was doing in college, that's really tame stuff.

 

Cocaine-fueled multi-night orgies might be a problem to consider. Taking Aderall during finals doesn't even rate.

[nicksaviking]

Well, I'll take Bryant over Stewart (but Gray or Appel over either). After the year Bryant had - i feel like every team that passed on him is going to be wondering why they outsmarted themselves. I don't think his historical performance has had the time to sink in yet.

 

Agree and I'm a guy who's always screaming for a pitcher, even admittedly last year when I preferred Appel and Gausman to Buxton.

 

But Bryant just looks special as does Appel and Gray. Stewart looks special too and I'd be thrilled to have him, but he just doesn't seem like the sure thing the other three do.

[nicksaviking]

Jim Callis Mock - 4.0 Just Posted:

 

4. MINNESOTA TWINS: Minnesota needs power arms, and assuming that the big three will be gone, I’ve had the Twins tied to Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart in each of my previous first-round projections. Now there’s word they may look in a different direction, but I think that’s mostly just frustration with how predraft talks have gone with the Texas A&M quarterback recruit. If they do pass on Stewart and there are no surprises in the top three picks, Minnesota likely would take Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire. Indiana high school lefthander Trey Ball, Nevada righty Braden Shipley and Frazier would be other options.

PROJECTED PICK: Kohl Stewart.

(Mock Draft 1.0: Kohl Stewart/2.0: Stewart/3.0: Stewart)

Mock Draft 4.0: The Final Countdown - BaseballAmerica.com

 

I was thinking about that this morning, if the Twins were going to go underslot, which they shouldn't, why would they go all the way down to get McGuire? Why not go for Ball, Shipley or Stankek? Or if they wanted to go farther down the list Bickford or Clarkin?