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    tony&rodney

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    Vanimal46

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/14/2023 in all areas

  1. Best case: Paddack recovers fully from his 2nd TJS and provides immense value for the Twins. Worst case: He becomes minimal dead money like Randy Dobnak.
    21 points
  2. Wow If Paddack can return to form that is a huge get for the Twins. With 3 starters potentially gone after this year having Paddack for two more years should really help. If he doesn't return to form then that would be a bummer. Still I like this risk for the Twins. He was pitching really well before he went down and I think the Twins can help him regain his market value. Really need Varland and SWR to work out as the pipeline is getting thin on starting pitching, Paddack could help bridge the gap.
    13 points
  3. I like most extensions, but this is a great one. Basically they're paying him his normal this year to rehab and next year to see how it's going, and then get one more year at a very reasonable price. I really like this!
    12 points
  4. Fyi, he's on the 40-man so no invite needed. He'll already be there.
    12 points
  5. I think you forget how many upper level players are signed or traded for that produce nothing. We have a couple on our own roster. Remember when people were really upset we did not get Bumgardner. Patrick Corbin is a bust. Chris Sale has not produced much since being extended. Johnny Cueto did very little 5 of his 6 year contract. Kluber got injured when when he went to Texas. He produced nothing and they gave up Clause in that trade. Clevinger went to SanDiego. Same story and they gave up Quantrill, Naylor and Miller for Clevinger. Kuechel was a bust. David Price was not much either. There are plenty of other examples. Davis / Pujlos / Elsbury, etc. This type of deal is exactly how a team with $300M in revenue competes with teams generating 50 to 100% more revenue. Obviously, if you have an extra $150M on payroll, you don't need to make these deals but we are not in that boat.
    9 points
  6. Lots of future prospects to watch, but I'd love Martin to show well at the plate, and hopefully get lots of work in the OF. His on-base skills and athletic ability are far beyond so-called RH "bats" Celestino or Garlick. And he certainly can't be stupider on the playing field than Gilberto. If they stop trying to force power from him, Martin is a potential run-scoring/base-stealing offensive piece to add to a lineup that needs (especially RH) offense badly.
    9 points
  7. Knock on wood but it should be a longtime before the Twins need to resort to another Matt Shoemaker / JA Happ type of signing. Yes, Mahle/Gray/Maeda will be free agents next year. However, Ryan/Paddack/Ober/SWR and Varland give us 5 very low cost starters. They will have plenty of money to extend Mahle or sign someone at least as good. That gives us 6 deep, maybe 7 if Dobnak is serviceable and by then one of two of Canterino/Festa/Raya/Prielipp should be ready especially later in the 2024 season if (when) we have injuries..
    8 points
  8. Buy low on talent with questions. This is really the only way a team like the Twins compete, right? Take the risk; good deal.
    8 points
  9. I feel bad being so frank, but Randy Dobnak was less much talented and had no upside.
    8 points
  10. This reminded me of Randy Dobnak, who also has been seemingly forgotten in these parts. MLB.com tells me, "January 13, 2023 Minnesota Twins invited non-roster RHP Randy Dobnak to spring training."
    8 points
  11. This is a pretty solid low risk gamble. Well done. With the extra year, and with him being dirt cheap in 2024, there should be no imperative to let him step on the field this year.
    8 points
  12. The 2 catchers doesn’t matter because as soon as the season starts Lewis and Paddock go on the 60 day DL and we have 2 open 40 man spots. Tony Walters is a very solid 3rd catcher on a minor league deal!
    7 points
  13. My youngest son was an early-adopter, so to speak, of the Rays as "his" team (well, second to the Twins) 15 or so years ago. He surprised me recently by saying that he's dropped that allegiance, for about the reasons you alluded to. Which is funny, because he received his MBA less than a year ago, but he basically sides with Labor moreso than Management in most things and the Rays finally became too much cognitive dissonance for him. The more teams that adopt the Rays' payroll practices, the less competition there is for high-end talent, and that bugs him. There are several teams besides the A's that the book Moneyball could have been written about, and each has its own particular spin on how to do it, but overall my belief is that Moneyball is as much a cause of low revenue as it is a symptom. At best, it's a holding pattern in a lose-lose scenario, much as a military leader may win particular battles but lose the war or a surgeon may have a successful operation but lose the patient. Looking only at the standings is short sighted.
    7 points
  14. I like this deal. The off season continues!
    7 points
  15. How does that work? Would love to hear how a team with $270M in revenue can spend as much as a team with $600M+ in revenue. Please enlighten us?
    6 points
  16. I really like this deal. With a guy like Adam Frazier getting $8 million in free agency extending a guy on a 3-year/$12.5m deal is a very good move. Hopefully they can extend more players, specially core players.
    6 points
  17. Interesting. I do like it though. Not really much to lose in this situation for either party.
    6 points
  18. Can't be mad at all. It's much better for baseball to have Cutch back as a pirate.
    6 points
  19. I'm far more concerned with the health of guys who are no longer prospects and are not yet yet major contributors because they can't stay on the field. Talking to you Larnach & Kiriloff.
    5 points
  20. I don't think this is the case. If he truly didn't want to stay here he would not have signed a long-term contract.
    5 points
  21. Apathy, I'd guess. Also, for some reason people are ok with billionaires keeping revenue instead of paying "greedy" players. Fans are weird.
    5 points
  22. I was against replay reviews when it was first introduced. I am still against replay reviews, at least in principle. However, I have grown used to replay reviews and can see the benefits. That being said, I am completely in favor of the robot umpires for balls and strikes. The annoyance of watching a home plate umpire have a bad day is off the charts. Then, the floating strike zone for veterans or guys with pinpoint control or batters with the reputation for a good eye is beyond aggravating. It's time to put that all away and have the automated strike zone. Also, no more ridiculous pitch framing.
    5 points
  23. I think this is a smart move. Even with the injuries, this is still likely a bit below market rate on arbitration, and assuming Paddack comes back reasonably well off the TJ it's well below market for the free agency year. A good compromise for the injury rehab that cost him most of last season and likely most if not all of this year. Paddack has talent and it's worth the gamble, especially at this money. He could be a very good fit next season as a rotation piece, and might be an option late this season, depending on how his rehab goes and what the Twins need for the rotation based on other pitcher's success or health. Good move for both parties: Paddack gets insurance/guarantees after a significant injury, the Twins get a discount for paying his rehab. They were always going to pay the arbitration number this year anyways.
    5 points
  24. It’s easy to say that Carlos Correa fell onto the Twins’ laps, not once, but twice. But it’s worth examining the many roster developments that led to the club being able to have an opening on their lap to begin with. From dealing with a revolving door of stopgap shortstops, to injuries that dimmed the long-term outlook of the position and the creation of financial flexibility through trades and early extensions -- that long road led to this franchise-altering move. It’s the butterfly effect. If things had gone differently to the slightest degree, who knows if Correa and his family wind up in the Twin Cities on Wednesday, where the star shortstop signed a mega deal that will keep him in the fold for at least six more years. Each of the six seasons that led to Correa’s newly-signed contract followed a similar pattern with minor variations throughout. Finally, the front office’s efforts to create that financial flexibility aligned with the club’s needs and the availability of a star player. Let’s take a look at all the action (or inaction) that led to the Twins landing another franchise cornerstone. 2017 While Derek Falvey and Thad Levine officially took over as the heads of the Twins’ baseball operations department in the fall of 2016, this season was almost like a barometer for them. Instead of starting their tenures with a bang in free agency or via trade, they decided to mostly stand pat with minor or mostly-inconsequential moves. They also remained relatively quiet at the trade deadline. Maybe that’s due to a lack of confidence that an over-achieving team could make a serious run in the postseason, or maybe they genuinely didn’t like any of the offers they were getting for players like Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton , etc. The team miraculously made the playoffs but was taken down by the mighty New York Yankees yet again in a one-game play-in wild card game. While discouraged by how the season ended, spirits remained high and fans clamored for free agent reinforcements heading into the off-season. 2018 Again, the Twins’ front office decided to wait out the free agent market, signing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison to cheaper, low-commitment deals. Then, in spring training, Jorge Polanco tested positive for a banned substance and was suspended for the first half of the season. It’s a big blow to the team, as Polanco’s numbers in the second half of 2017 throttled the team to contention (.870 OPS, 130 wRC+). Falvey and Levine decided to hold back. They didn’t overreact by acquiring a long-term replacement, despite the fan outcry. Instead, the team rolled with a combination of Ehire Adrianza and Gregorio Petit (remember him?) until Polanco could return in July. Sadly, the team took a major step back from a record standpoint. Falvey and Levine finally got to see some action at the trade deadline, but not in the way many Twins’ fans would have hoped for. They traded away popular players such as Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly in an effort to acquire current-day contributors such as Jhoan Duran, Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino . 2019 Once again, the Twins waited out the free agent market, establishing a pattern that they follow to this day. Instead, they focused their attention on locking up their young talent to team-friendly extensions. This included Polanco, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano , who each landed multi-year deals that included team options at the end of the contracts. When the calendar flipped to 2019, they signed veteran power hitter Nelson Cruz to a modest one-year contract with a club option for the 2020 season. Besides that, they once again mostly took a back seat in free agency. Polanco provided excellent value at shortstop and even made his first All Star game appearance as the starter for the American League. However, he started leaking oil from a defensive standpoint in the second half of the season. Perhaps it was due to lingering injuries in his surgically-repaired ankle, but this was when it started to become clear that he probably was not going to be a long-term option at shortstop. 2020 This off-season was defined by one move that they made, and a few notable ones that they held off on. Sure, their noted interest in Zach Wheeler fell short when he signed a five-year, $118 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The club would certainly have had to pay far more to get him in a Twins uniform, but still, that contract looks rather enticing at the moment. Falvey and Levine also chose to hold back on a pursuit of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, who were popular names on Twins’ Twitter due to their availability as well as the club’s need for established arms. That decision to focus elsewhere proved to be wise, as Keuchel hit a wall in the second year of his eventual contract, and Kimbrel has been inconsistent. The Twins chose to instead wait and sign third baseman Josh Donaldson when his market didn’t develop as well as he hoped. The team went on to win the division but were once again swept from postseason play. The dagger ends up being a defensive error by Polanco at short, leading the team to fully transition him out of the shortstop position. 2021 The club made it clear that a new starting shortstop is the first item on their off-season shopping list. At one point, it looked like a three-horse race between free agents Andrelton Simmons, Marcus Semien and Didi Gregorius . They chose a one-year deal for Simmons, as not to block the heir apparent, Royce Lewis . Their top prospect, however, tore his ACL and had to sit out for the whole 2021 season, dimming the long-term outlook at the position. Simmons had a terrible season, and his tenure as a Twin is over after one year, just as planned. 2022 The Twins shipped Donaldson to the Yankees in an effort to unload a now-undesirable contract. Meanwhile, Correa remained unsigned coming out of the MLB lockout and the Twins still had an opening at short. In a move that took everyone by surprise, the Twins landed him on essentially a one-year deal with protections in case he gets injured. Once again, they waited out the market and this time the Twins got their biggest prize yet. Later on, Lewis re-tears his ACL in May, and Austin Martin starts getting more time at other positions due to doubts he can handle the shortstop position. The long-term outlook of the position is once again doubtful. At the culmination of the 2022 campaign, Correa opted out of his contract as expected. The Twins are left with a hole at shortstop, but now they have something they’ve worked to create for the better part of six years – financial flexibility. They are not bogged down by the contracts of yesteryear, and their team consists of young talent and older veterans that signed early extensions. Yet again, they wait out the market instead of springing for high-end players such as Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts . When Correa’s deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets fell through, that flexibility and patience led them to this tenure-defining transaction.
    5 points
  25. The twins have become the Red Cross of injuries. I would love it someday to have a healthy arm come in and just pitch
    5 points
  26. I really like this move. Lot of upside while being a real gamble on health, but at a significantly reduced cost. Continues the trend of paying less for upside by assuming risk of getting nothing. This team in the next couple years is going to be a real dice roll, but if they hit on a couple in the same year it could look really good. Previously they were capped at first round exit because they didn't/ couldn't sign the big contracts, now they have the potential to make real noise if things break right, but could also completely fall apart to injury. Missing addition is an ace upside starter that has massive question marks lol.
    5 points
  27. That the Twins offered this money to him, tells us the outfield situation is unsettled.
    5 points
  28. I was hoping that Julien would get an invite after his outstanding year and showing in the Arizona Fall League; a reward of sorts.
    5 points
  29. Relax everybody. This too will work itself out.
    4 points
  30. Celestino being the "ideal backup for Buxton" doesn't necessitate him being on the major-league roster. When Buxton needs rest, Gordon or Gallo (who the Twins FO seems to believe in as a viable part-time CF) can start, or can move to CF in the late innings. If (.....when) Buxton gets hurt, Celestino is on call at AAA.
    4 points
  31. He can want to be here while also preferring to go somewhere else for more money. I've been happy at jobs I've had despite them not being my dream job, and despite being willing to drop them for something that pays more.
    4 points
  32. 10 years overdue. The challenge option is just cowardly. Use the best option, and it is not humans guessing, and catchers moving their glove.
    4 points
  33. Emmanuel has a chance to be special, as in superstar player. I agree that this year is big for him because he totally dominated FSL. I hope he gets a half year at Wichita which is very aggressive. Balazovic looked lost on the mound and one can only hope that a complete recovery from any ailments and a fresh year can reset his approach to pitching because his stuff is still decent. Lewis will fit in as soon as the rust is off. His talent, confidence, and experiences last year should make him a big contributor to the Twins this coming season. Hopefully he can avoid further injuries and build his career. I guess Alex Kirilloff is not a prospect any longer but he sure needs to prove he can rip like we saw in St. Paul last summer for a brief spell.
    4 points
  34. There is nothing inherently wrong with 8 outfielders on the 40-man, so long as at least 3 and preferably 4 have minor league options so they can be sent down. I believe Celestino, Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff can all be sent to St Paul at will, with Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, and Gordon all rooted to the major league roster. So the current array of outfielders is viable, although a bit left-heavy as we all acknowledge. There is no absolute urgency to deal Kepler or anyone else, though it's an option. My one worry is that we have only 2 catchers on the 40-man. The first time one of the catchers gets an owie that requires multiple days of recuperation (Injured List or otherwise) someone from AAA will have to be added to the 40, and that will mean removing someone unless that injured catcher goes on the 60-day IL. Doubtful it would be a pitcher who gets jettisoned, so that means an outfielder would have to be moved somehow. That's a risk that is settled if one of the outfielders is himself injured first and put on the 60-day IL, but the timing could work the wrong way and cause an unwanted move. We ran out of outfielders in 2022 so having 8 gives some sense of comfort that a slate of 4 performing at a major league level can be cobbled together at any given time. I don't like trading away up-the-middle players or prospects, so I'm not interested in moving Celestino, even though at present he has his warts. About to turn 24, the 2023 season will be fish or cut bait time with him, I suspect.
    4 points
  35. Exactly why we cannot trade either Lewis or Lee. If both turn out to be super players, there will be room for both of them on the diamond. But we cannot afford to trade Lee and then have Lewis turn into 80 Game Buxton or worse.
    4 points
  36. I think Rodriguez has the longest road to walk, so probably the least to prove, although it would be great to see him have a complete breakout season. Lewis needs to prove he can be healthy and the skills are real, I don't want him following in Buxton's footsteps. Balazovic, I think, has the most to prove. The Twins really need top end starters and it would be great for the team if he proves he is one of those.
    4 points
  37. So many questions. Why just choose one year? How much less shifting was there in 2019? How exactly does shifting impact numbers for a second baseman? Why does Arraez specifically benefit so much from this from shifting? Isn't 390 innings (Arraez' 2019 innings at second) a really small sample size? Arraez doesn't have great range, certainly, and his arm isn't particularly strong. Playing second base IMHO doesn't require the raw athleticism that being a shortstop does and Arraez has developed to be a capable defender IMHO. I don't know if he can be a 2B for 150 games, but I don't think his defense is off the charts bad, keeping him from being an option at second base.
    4 points
  38. I enjoyed the read also, but it almost reads like a grand 6-year plan to sign CC. I actually favor the "He fell into our laps - twice", scenario. Certainly not complaining, and I give kudos to the FO for getting the deal done. I know Falvey likes to use the term creative, and I believe he is. I'm not sure how much his restrictions affect his performance, but I am beginning to like the results. I absolutely loved the Donaldson signing at the time, and even loved it more when they traded him away. Some of the dumpster diving gets old, but usually at a low cost. And when one of those dumpster plucks pans out in a big way, we are going to love it. So I guess I'm just gonna let the FO do their job, and I"ll just sit back and laud their decisions, or complain about them. What a great fan I am, eh?
    4 points
  39. I like this deal as a low risk/high reward move, and now I would like the Twins to work out an extension for either Gray or Mahle, or both. Tack on 2-3 years on their contracts and it would look to me that the Twins are looking to win over the long haul.
    4 points
  40. Oh, the Gallo signing irks me far less in the wake of the Correa signing. It was a fine move - basically use Gallo to replace Kepler and then dish Max for something else. But in that moment, it felt like the front office was just spending money because they had money. Thankfully the biggest free agent circus in history came to town and they were able to do something with the rest of that money.
    4 points
  41. Technically, another way to compete would be to spend like the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers. While the Twins will always have a disadvantage being located in an undesirable market, they can spend as much $$$ as any other team if they league, if they wanted. So could the Pirates and Royals for that matter.
    4 points
  42. The Athletic is a good read and Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes are excellent writing about the Twins. Gleeman has come a long way from eating Chinese takeout and smelling up his mom's basement in Highland Park. Good writers. Correa is as focused as they come. I loved watching him play with Houston and it is a treat to see him play for the Twins. He will do everything within his power to be ready to play every day; he is a gamer. I wish him well. Wouldn't it be cool to see him finish eleven years with the Twins?
    4 points
  43. In 2019, two of the young arms I was excited about were Chris Paddack and Sandy Alcantara. Each was proving difficult for opposing batters. Alcantara has blossomed while Paddack had his second major surgery. The road back is really rough for pitchers who need multiple arm resets. Paddack has come into fantastic financial luck with this contract. Pitchers love to pitch though and i hope he can joyfully reach every incentive on a healthy return to the mound.
    4 points
  44. At this point, Gallo's upside is astronomically higher than McCutchen's upside. I didn't really like the Gallo signing - particularly the way the offseason was going at that point - but I watched 100 games of McCutchen last season. I have little interest in seeing him play more.
    4 points
  45. TD seems to have forgotten about him completely. Lots of articles about pitching going forward have not even mentioned his name. I had to go back to the Twins' site to make sure he was still on the roster. But you are totally accurate that he is a potential boost for the next two years, when we will seemingly lack veteran starters.
    4 points
  46. Would you extend this player? Averages for first four seasons: Ave: .316; OBP: .366, OPS: .770. Total plate appearances: 1,889. Age at the end of year 4: 25. Compare to Arraez. Arraez first four seasons averages: BA: .314; OBP: 0.374; OPS: .774 Arraez total PAs: 1,569. Age at the end of year 4: 25 I’m not saying Arraez will have a career like the player above; however, their first four seasons overall have been pretty comparable at the plate. I’d extend him. Oh, the player is Tony Gwynn
    4 points
  47. bap3141

    Paddack extension..

    Looks like 3 years, $12.4M. I like this. It's like a mini-play pulled out of the Braves playbook. Lock up the studs while they're young. Ha! Seriously though, I like Paddack and was happy when they traded for him and sad when he went down. I hope he reaches his potential here, Good move.
    3 points
  48. Really like this deal. Hopefully Paddack is on a rehab assignment by about July and can be a long relief guy for the Twins to end the season and start knocking the rust off. Then in 2024 he would have a real shot at claiming a rotation spot in ST.
    3 points
  49. I'm certain there is a ton of excitement and happiness over the return of Pagan.
    3 points
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