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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/22/2022 in all areas
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The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
D.C Twins and 10 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a topic
If they trade six years of SWR for two of Lopez, they should be fired. People do realize they need to keep prospects right? They won't sign long term deals, so the only way to have players is to keep prospects. They should not deal anyone, in a realistic trade, for only two years of a player at this point. I'm flabbergasted at all these trade suggestions for guys with limited control.11 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
LA VIkes Fan and 9 others reacted to Linus for a topic
The idea that SF suddenly got cold feet is silly. They had plenty of time to thoroughly consider the signing. The most plausible explanation is they wanted to insure the contract and the insurance company had an issue with the medicals.10 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
rickyriolo and 9 others reacted to mikelink45 for a topic
Like the Twins - it is time to move on from Correa.10 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Hosken Bombo Disco and 8 others reacted to tarheeltwinsfan for a topic
Not that Nick needs anyone to defend him, but I respectfully disagree with your statement that Nick always leaves out key details that don't fit his narrative. I don't always agree with Nick, nor any writer at TD, nor any poster at TD, but I feel that all the TD writers are knowledgeable journalists, who try to get to the truth and then write about the truth. However by nature that is difficult to do in this setting, when the FO cannot share medical information without the patient's permission and the FO does not want to share negotiation information nor who is going to be drafted or who was offered to be traded for whom. And there are things that take place on the field and in the clubhouse which need to stay in the clubhouse. We as posters on TD are given free access to post our disagreements. We have freedom of the TD press, as long as we are civil. We are fortunate to have access to this website and to be able to state reasons for our disagreements in a civil manner....thanks mainly to Nick Nelson and the other owners of TD. Happy holidays to all owners, writers and posters at TD. I love this website.9 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Bill Tanner and 8 others reacted to h2oface for a topic
I may not agree with, or have different take than Nick Nelson on a share of things, but asserting he always leaves out key details that don’t fit his narrative is just not true. Nick is very complete with his and the collection of facts available. We are lucky to have him.9 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
silverslugger and 7 others reacted to farmerguychris for a topic
Bullpen help. We have depth at starters, but even if we signed a true number 1 starter - the analytics this FO operate by suggest they would often not pitch past 5 innings. Spend some money on the BP to replace Pagan, Megill, Sands, and Moran. Last year we had a BP full of 1-inning guys - nows the time to address that and get a stacked set up back-ups who can pitch 600 innings.8 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Rigby and 7 others reacted to twinssporto for a topic
Any update on Joey Gallo's physical???? Maybe we can use that as an escape clause...:)8 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Bill Tanner and 7 others reacted to Seth Stohs for a topic
The Twins absolutely offered 10 and $285M. They absolutely believed they were in it until that last day. There are reports saying that he was telling people on Monday that he was heading back to Minnesota, but then the Giants blew the other offers away. That's when there was an agreement... pending a physical. That's where the Twins were. If he would have accepted the Twins offer, it would also have been pending a physical. Now, who knows what the Twins doctors would have seen or found in the physical. But after the Giants brought up concerns, then the Twins absolutely would have needed to re-evaluate where they were at, and it would be crazy to increase how much you would pay a guy when there are question marks. And, as others have said... Boras being in a rush to get him signed would make me really nervous too.8 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Battle ur tail off and 7 others reacted to KirbyDome89 for a topic
"So there you have it. I'm not sure anyone can hold the Twins front office at fault in this situation, given that they merely appear to have been doing their due diligence." He would've undergone a physical last year in MN. The article mentions that the Twins had "a solid understanding of Correa’s medical history, having just employed him," and that the leg injury he suffered in the minors has never caused him to miss time in 8 ML seasons. The Mets were also a team that passed on Paddack last year due to medical concerns, but now the Twins being outbid by the Mets is "due diligence?" That's a fairly massive spin job. I'm gonna call BS on the idea that the Twins were eager and/or willing to jump back in and spend the money it would've taken to sign Correa. Why would Boras wait on a team that was still $30M short, and had zero intention of even getting to $300M? How many other teams were actually in on Correa, and of them, how many had enough room in their budget to throw a better offer at him than NY? Isn't MN's unwillingness to spend, and NY's enthusiasm to do so a much more plausible explanation than some mysterious malady which hasn't affected Correa in nearly a decade, and was completely off the Twins radar during both their own physical and the entirety of the year he played for the organization?8 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
Bigfork Twins Guy and 6 others reacted to Linus for a topic
This is what I have come to believe as well. If they are sticking with the no to the third time through the order strategy then giving a front line starter $100 million probably doesn’t make sense. Build an excellent bullpen and win that way. We’ve got a good start: if we add 2 relievers at the Fulmer or better level we might have something. And it certainly is something they can afford to do.7 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Rigby and 5 others reacted to nicksaviking for a topic
Seth, I really need this explained. When he declined the option years, Correa called himself top end designer clothing and said the Twins had to pony up if they wanted to keep him. Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor already had deals that dwarfed 285M and everyone in the baseball world took Correa’s comments to mean he wanted a similar, if not larger deal. Why were theTwins the only entity that thought they could sign him for that much less? It doesn’t add up.6 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
TwinsRealist and 5 others reacted to nicksaviking for a topic
10 for 285M was never getting this done and the Twins had to know that. He wasn’t going to do a deal less than, Seager, Lindor and Turner. Correa and Boras would probably have rather done another 1-year, make-good deal. But why wouldn’t the Twins know all about Correa’s medicals? They signed him last year. Did this uber conservative team just say screw it, we’ll do this potential 100M contract ? Because if there WAS something off with him, that would put the two 35M option years in a different light. Doubtful; they should have known all there was to know already, and more so than any other team. They needed no more time to vet this. But what really gets me is why is this coming from The Athletic?!? Where are OUR reporters? Doogie just did an interview with Falvey and Correa’s name never came up once. How the hell is that journalism?!?6 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
TwinsRealist and 5 others reacted to USAFChief for a topic
10 years is significantly different than 13? A renewed physical with "different criteria?" WHAT? My belief is the Twins were never seriously considering signing Carlos Correa. The rest is smokescreen. There is zero possibility his ankle had anything to do with their decision. What possible new information would there be? They knew about Correa's 2014 ankle injury LAST year. You're telling me legitimately thought 10 years and $285m was OK last week, but NOW they needed "due diligence?"6 points -
I am with all those who think trading Arraez or prospects for a pitcher who is clearly NOT a number 1 (Lopez) for two years makes no sense. It puts them right back into the same situation next year when Mahle, Maeda, and Gray are FA's. That is why signing a top tier pitcher to a long term FA contract makes so much sense. It lends stability to the rotation. But, it hasn't happened and is not likely to happen. So, I also agree with those who advocate for creating a top tier bullpen. It is the second best option, and in this division would probably be enough. And, it shouldn't cost prospects. How this FO thinks they can build a contending team for the long term by trading prospects for mid rotation starters is really nuts. The worst part is that I now think they will feel a need to "do something" and that "something" might be a big mistake. Let's hope not.5 points
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They are also trading for players past the most realistic opportunity to lock them up long-term. Mahle is going to be way more interested in getting to free agency than whatever discounted contract the Twins could offer. They only window the Twins have to lock up players at the prices they're willing to pay is before the player reaches arbitration. Once they're a year away from free agency the player is going to bet on themselves. BTW - Joe Ryan is in that window.5 points
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The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
ashbury and 4 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a topic
100% . Not only are they passing on the elite pitchers, they are passing on the next tier. Every year. Over and over.5 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
D.C Twins and 4 others reacted to LewFordLives for a topic
I was upset about the Bassit deal with Toronto. That seems like a deal the Twins could have afforded and there was not excessive long term risk.5 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
KirbyDome89 and 4 others reacted to Shobae for a topic
Well I think a few things, first we don't or may never get the full medical details on what the Giants saw with correa. Second it's possible, in fact good, that doctors have differing opinions when looking at a set of records. Perhaps the Twins doctors were fine with Correa when the Giants were not. To my knowledge there aren't any medical doctors/bio physicists in the forum so I don't thinks its very useful to speculate about the medical records and what could have happened there. Some people have mentioned insurance as a possible reason, seems certainly it would be a factor though I don't know enough about the insurance industry, nor its relation to MLB, to say anything useful on that. What I do know however is that a contract below 300 million dollars was never going to get Carlos Correa signed and assuming the mets deal is made official, my prediction will have been correct. That the twins offer never reached that money signals to me they were never serious about resigning Correa. They knew what Correa wanted something better than the Lindor contract and they knew what the market was like after Turner and Bogearts signed. Then to have the chance to get on Correa again and not moving from your original offer just confirms that for me. I think twins fans were all taken for a ride with this Correa saga. If you look at it from Boras/Correa POV it make perfect sense to have the Twins playing up your market so that you can then get a serious player to come in and give you the deal you want. It also makes sense from the Twins perspective as they can say they tried hard to get Correa and then have an excuse as to why they have lowered payroll YoY when league revenues only keep increasing. I would have been fine with the Twins saying they didn't want Correa at the start off the off season, but after all this noise and circus to then lowball Correa twice makes me extremely distrustful of their intentions from the start.5 points -
Now there is a novel idea. Let's ask somebody not even in the organization, a player no less, who we are years and millions apart in negotiations with, tell us how to run our team. More than likely the trade talks fell apart because the team no longer wanted to part with Arraez after not signing Correa. Or the Twins may have pivoted to Rogers, Luzardo or Cabrera, who are under team control longer, and the asking price got really big. We, as fans, do not know why the talks stalled, but the talks could also pick up at any time.5 points
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Not much FA action in the entire central this year. Seems like the White Sox are more interested in moving salary than anything else this year. If the Twins get a starter it needs to be a front of the rotation type of pitcher or they might as well stick with what they have. Once again they appear to have pitching depth with Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR with Paddack back maybe mid year. So lot's of 5th starter material to work with. They can't be counted on but if Balazovic, Enlow and Hedrick improve dramatically they could be depth as well. If they can't find a deal they like I can see them standing pat. If the FO thinks Polanco is a guy that gets it done not sure why they would hesitate. They would still have Arraez they can plug in there and Jullien seems likely to be ready for 2nd at some point next year and they also have Martin who can play there and Lee might be an option at Short or second so they are going to have to move somebody off this team at some point. Switch hitters are hard to come by but if the return is front of the rotation pitcher that this team desperately needs then I think they need to do it. Honestly unless they get a deal they like I think the Twins will stand pat with what they have. It isn't sexy but might be enough to take the central if this team can find a way to hit lefties.5 points
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The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
Fatbat and 4 others reacted to bloomwcjkl for a topic
We need to sign the next Pete Redfern.5 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
Dennesey55347 and 4 others reacted to Reptevia for a topic
I don’t think they’re even actively pursuing a starter at this point. I think they’re happy to roll with what they have. They may add a reliever or two if available at a reasonable price. If someone (any position) falls into their laps, they may add someone. This team is not one starter away or one position player away. Doesn’t really make financial sense to add more just to add. Will a Pablo Lopez raise our win total? Maybe a couple..Will that make us competitive? Probably not. Will it get people to come to games? Probably not. I don’t see this owner/FO throwing good money after bad. Call it a soft rebuild going into 2024, or call it more mediocrity.5 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
twinssporto and 4 others reacted to theBOMisthebomb for a topic
Dare to dream, twinssporto. Dare to dream, my friend. If only the Twins could be so lucky.5 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Shaitan and 4 others reacted to TNTwinsFan for a topic
"Now he's giving up $35 million from the first agreed-upon contract to settle for a lesser deal with New York, because – in Boras' own words – the Giants wanted to conduct more investigation on the second-largest contract in major-league history. "They advised us they still had questions," he said. "They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it." Sounds like the Twins sang a similar tune, and that was also a deal-breaker." I've been following the Twins for about years now. Been on TwinsDaily for over a decade. The amount of doubt and vitrol this front office receives for their decisions or seeming lack thereof really needs to be tempered. Its so easy to sit back and "arm chair quarterback" these decisions as if they are being made while playing the latest version of a MLB video game. You really think these guys are making multi-million dollar decisions on a whim?! You think they don't see at least what you see and more? Everyone makes mistakes, but wow, I'm tired of reading folks get on here and type thousands of words acting as if they know better. I've made some suggestIons abut who I'd like to see them sign, but, I know its not so easy. Just realize theres much more to the story than you might think.5 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Hosken Bombo Disco and 4 others reacted to Reds Kevin for a topic
Kyle Farmer is an outstanding defensive shortstop and average offensive player. He is not Carlos Correra but the Twins should not be afraid to play him there. He is a baseball player not just an athlete.5 points -
Insuring the contract could actually be the key to all this. I have no idea how many insurers write these policies for these ginormous contracts, but I suspect it is a small number that do so. I am sure the Twins also intended to insure Correa's contract, and if the insurer for the Giants had concerns and would not underwrite the policy without more medical information/investigation, I strongly suspect the Twins would have the same problem on their end. Indeed, I would not be surprised to learn it is the same insurer utilized by both teams. Cohen may not even need or want to pay the premiums and insure the contract, removing that issue entirely. I am just spitballing, but it would fit the information we have so far.....5 points
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Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
glunn and 4 others reacted to Hosken Bombo Disco for a topic
This passage is key. Thanks, Nick. I don’t have the time to catch up on the other threads, but I’ve glanced through, and seen the “Giants got cold feet” argument made. I don’t buy it. Boras doesn’t move on that fast and leave that money on the table if there’s nothing there. Your suggestion that it’s the ankle makes a lot of sense.5 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
glunn and 4 others reacted to Nick Nelson for an article
In a tremendously reported new article for The Athletic, Andy McCullough and Ken Rosenthal bring us a revealing account of the latest stunning twist in Carlos Correa's bizarre free agency saga. On Tuesday, about one week after agreeing to terms with Correa on a $350 million, we learned the Giants were postponing an introductory press conference for the signature signing, over concerns surfaced in his physical. Suddenly, the deal appeared to be in doubt. Sure enough, it completely fell through, and by the time we awoke this morning Correa had already agreed to a lesser deal with the Mets: 12 years, $315 million. It all happened so quickly, we wondered if the Twins – reportedly one of the two finalists for CC before Steve Cohen entered the fray – ever even had the chance to jump back in. It turns out, they did. And they decided against it. Per The Athletic, as Boras revived discussions with Cohen and the Mets, he "also contacted the Twins." "The presence of the Mets gave Boras leverage," according to the reporting. "If Minnesota wanted Correa, Boras conveyed, the team needed to improve its earlier offer – even though Correa appeared compromised with the Giants. The Twins would not have advanced the conversation without investigating the potential issues caused by Correa’s physical. The team did not intend to increase its bid beyond 10 years and $285 million. So Boras stuck with the man in Hawaii (Cohen)." So there you have it. I'm not sure anyone can hold the Twins front office at fault in this situation, given that they merely appear to have been doing their due diligence. Why increase your offer after some mysterious issue was flagged and torpedoed an historic deal? That's not to say they intended to increase their offer even if the medicals checked out – sure sounds like they had reached their definitive max. But at the very least they were within their rights to take a beat and figure out what's going on. Alas, that wasn't to be, because – for whatever reason – Boras is in a sudden rush to get this thing done. And that is strange to me. He's typically an agent known for exercising extreme patience in order to get his clients the best deal possible. Now he's giving up $35 million from the first agreed-upon contract to settle for a lesser deal with New York, because – in Boras' own words – the Giants wanted to conduct more investigation on the second-largest contract in major-league history. "They advised us they still had questions," he said. "They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it." Sounds like the Twins sang a similar tune, and that was also a deal-breaker. Based on the information currently out there, it's easy to hold the Giants accountable as incompetent and noncommittal fools in this situation. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that, "It sounds as if there was a very old Correa injury - pre MLB - that was raised as a potential issue. It has not cropped up again. None of Correa’s other physical issues have required medical intervention or ongoing treatment." Slusser adds: "If this was a true medical concern, it sounds a little tenuous - and if it was a matter of cold feet, that’s usually ownership. Not the front office." Doesn't sound so good for the Giants. But then, the information being relayed to Slusser is pretty clearly coming from Boras – notably, she was quick to tweet initially that Correa's medial issue did NOT involve his back, at a time when no other details were emerging – and the team has thus far been silent. One report from Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area indicates that the Giants were concerned about a previous ankle injury that required surgery and insertion of a metal plate, as I speculated yesterday while recalling that the injury had been stirred up during a stolen base attempt with the Twins this past season. Clearly, the Giants were ready to sign Correa. They certainly had the money after missing out on Aaron Judge. An agreement was in place. The press conference was scheduled and ready to go. Something spooked them. And given the circumstances, Minnesota's front office wasn't going to blindly dive back in, to the extent they were ever interested in hanging with New York. So as of now, Correa is lined up to play alongside Francisco Lindor, at third base for the Mets. Given all that's happened, it's hard to take for granted that's what will play out. But either way it now seems clearer than ever it's time for the Twins to move on.5 points -
The Twins Skimping on Correa Presents More Questions Than Answers
Brazilian Twins Fan and 4 others reacted to JYTwinsFan for a topic
I've been trying to monitor the reporting all day on this, so it's possible I've missed something, but I am surprised by the conviction a lot of people have around presuming to know what happened here. There's a pretty real chance that Correa has a significant medical risk that we will never know about (nor should we). For the time being, until further reporting or leaks, it seems worth considering that whatever it is... It was enough for the Giants, under significant pressure with their fanbase, to walk away from the deal unapologetically risking egg on their face, relationship with Boras, a lackluster 2023 season, and criticism from their fan base equal or greater than the Twins. I suspect they did not do that lightly. It was significant enough for Boras/Mets to settle on a deal worth $35mil less than the Giants offer. It's entirely possible the Twins know this mark on his medicals and perhaps led them to cap their offer where they did. Or perhaps Boras did approach the Twins after the Giants backed out and they stood firm with their offer. I don't know much about insuring star athletes, but is it plausible that some actuary presented a case for insurance up to a certain amount based on Correa's medical risk and that is a factor that teams have to legitimately weigh. For arguments sake, what if they will only insure up to $285mil? Also...the deal with the Mets is not done...and I would think most would agree that the Mets offer here is not a sign of their confidence that the medical risk is insignificant. They are literally throwing money around and the physical is there to protect them too if they calculate differently between now and then. They'd suffer much less backlash because they'd be the second team to pull out validating the Giants move. Anyway...fun reading everyone's speculation. But man, there's a lot here we don't know.5 points -
Pitching and Pipelines
Riverbrian and 3 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a topic
I'm not sure what people expect. I also don't agree that filling the front of the line from outside doesn't count as filling the pipeline. Let's look at the Twins pitching pipeline..... The goal is to have good pitchers, if you draft them, sign free agents, or trade for them. An obsession over how they fill the pipeline seems like it is looking at reasons not to like or to like a FO, rather than looking at if they have good pitchers. Zero players drafted in the last two years are in the majors, they haven't had 6+ years to fill the MLB roster. Zero minor league pitchers that they inherited are good starting pitchers anywhere in the majors. Outside Twins' territory, no more than 1 or 2 were ever projected by analysts to be starting pitchers. They also had to fill offensive issues. They can't only draft pitchers (just look at last year's OF debacle with all the injuries for evidence of that). They traded part of the pipeline, the 18th overall pick a couple years ago, for a number 2 starter. He put up good numbers last year, but wasn't healthy enough to pitch quite enough. If he continues the last two years or so, they'll have traded a HS pitcher 2-3 years from the majors for 2 years of a very good starter. That is a good trade when your team is good (as it would have been last year with average health), but an average to bad trade when your team isn't quite good enough. If they are out of it at the deadline, they'll get a lesser prospect back than they traded, but them's the breaks. To be clear, I think dealing a HS pitcher for a number 2 starter is a good trade. YMMV. They traded two months of a player they didn't need anymore for 6.5 years of a number 3 starter. How filling the pipeline from outside doesn't count, I don't know. But this was a great trade. Ryan was a number three last year, as a rookie. They traded for Mahle. This one is controversial for many. I get it. But, if your team is in the playoff hunt, and you can trade numbers of prospects for a number 2/3 type with 1.5 years left, I get it. There wasn't a lot to choose from during the trade deadline. It was him or the guy NYY traded for (who was also hurt, but I'm sure their FO is better). I am good with going for it when your team is in the hunt. This was the issue so many fans complained about Ryan never doing, then they do it, and those same fans complained. Can't please everyone. They have Ober and Varland. Yup, Ober got hurt. If he's healthy, he looks like a 3/4 or so. Varland looks like a 4 that will look like a 3 some days. You know, sometimes guys get hurt. They have SWR (traded a guy that wanted a six year deal for him and Martin....the Twins have zero six year deals to pitchers in their history). He's part of the pipeline. Saying he hasn't proved anything yet seems odd. The idea of a pipeline is that you have good players in the minors ready to step up (like Varland last year). They have Winder, Balazovic (sp?) (who going into last year most considered a future starter or RP at worst). They have Henriquez, who is like 22? They have Paddock (not my favorite risk, but they may get lucky). They have Maeda (great trade that first year. I think he's a RP this year). They have Headrick and Enlow further down, and a couple more younger than them. This doesn't consider moving Duran to starter......nor does it look at their RPs at all. Your starting pitchers: Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Varland (three of those guys are controlled for 4 more years or more) Your backups: SWR, Winder, Jordy B, Henriquez, Maeda (maybe) (all but Mahle still have rookie eligibility) Your longer term backups: Enlow, Headrick, Paddock That's the best staff this team has had in a long time (outside 2019). They've basically added Ryan, Ober, and Varland in the last two years. It took awhile, but they look to have some depth behind those. My biggest issue? Not signing one of the elite SPs last year. I'd love to have someone better or same as Gray on this roster for the next 4-5 years. A proven guy. I'm not expert on their whole system, I'm sure I'm missing part of the pipeline. But, this system, top to bottom, is much better than it has been in years. I mean, Bundy and Archer were the two worst starters by ERA last year....and they are replaced by Ober and Varland...... If you think that's not a pipeline at all, what do you expect from a team? If you don't think filling the front of the pipe thru trades count, I doubt we can agree on how to measure if a FO puts together a good staff, which is the goal.4 points -
MLB doesn't care about most of its teams
Strombomb and 3 others reacted to puckstopper1 for a topic
I've felt this way for years, but this offseason really pushed me over the edge - that MLB does not care about most of its teams. This article on MLB.com seals it in my opinion. https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-mets-deal-takeaways Item #5 on this list *really* irks me. Really - the best offseason ever? What is you are a fan of the 22 teams that can't spend up to (or blow away) the Luxury Tax? Do you really feel that this was the best offseason ever? Of that's right - your not in LA or NY or Philly or Chicago so you do not matter to MLB. MLB BASEBALL IS SOOOOOO BROKEN RIGHT NOW! I have been a fan of the game and of the Twins for over 50 years and have never been so frustrated with the state of the game. The average team can not compete and the average fan can no longer afford to attend games. Not sure what the fans of most of the teams have to look forward to this summer...4 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
Dozier's Glorious Hair and 3 others reacted to mnfireman for a topic
Flexibility, in general, is important. Just ask an old guy trying to get off the floor after playing with the grand kids.......4 points -
Lot of points to consider. I'll just pick one, that IMO the FO is below average to its peers, and I'm particularly unimpressed with the track record where analytics should have been key, such as deciding to trade significant chips for injury risks. They try real hard, just like I'm sure Kyle Farmer will try real hard. That doesn't mean replacement should be off the table.4 points
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The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
Karbo and 3 others reacted to nicksaviking for a topic
Agreed, it's unlikely. I can't imagine it would be two of those three, unless maybe it's Arraez and Gordon who are still both dirt cheap. More likely one of the three and a prospect(s). And if "unlikely" turns out to be "impossible", don't trade just for the sake of trading.4 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
Dman and 3 others reacted to nicksaviking for a topic
It was Rodon or bust. I could have gotten behind Bassitt I suppose but he's pretty dang old and his best pitch is his 93 MPH fastball. I'd be concerned about what happens to him once age starts eating away at his velocity. But Syndergaard, Walker and Taillon are not top of the rotation pitchers, at least not any longer. They don't go above Gray and Ryan and if that's not where you're aiming, why would you bring in more pitchers when there is already considerably more upside in Mahle, SWR, Varland, Ober and even Maeda? I think Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez have probably already hit their ceilings and their values will likely never be higher, and Max Kepler has become expendable, so if they want to swing a trade using those guys as pieces, go ahead, but it's got to be for a reasonably good arm, don't take a spot away from the upside group just because we need some action around here.4 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
USAFChief and 3 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a topic
To be clear.....my posts about having CC or having two mediocre players aren't about CC.....they are about the strategy of continuing to sign one or two bad or ok players, year after year, instead of signing an elite player. Last year there were more great SPs available than ever. Instead of signing one, they signed Bundy and Archer, who were literally their two worst starters last year. Then, at the break, they dealt for Mahle. Imagine if they had signed one of the really good starters instead! And, that player would still be here this year, and next. Now? Now they need starters again, and they are down the prospects they dealt for Mahle (who is gone after this year, so they'll need another pitcher next year).4 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
The_Phantom and 3 others reacted to sjunisu for a topic
The answer is simple - $$$. We have yet to lose out on a player where we were the high bidder. End of story. When we become the high bidder, then we will sign free agents.4 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Hosken Bombo Disco and 3 others reacted to JYTwinsFan for a topic
It's a very emotional thing for fans to evaluate these situations and we treat them as zero sum games as if Correa is either a perennial All Star or one day he vaporizes walking down the street ceasing to exist and rendering the contract a complete failure. I would guess that since these 30 teams are businesses each worth $1 - $6 billion that they are quite scientific in how they evaluate and manage their risk. Certainly an insurer is VERY scientific in managing their risk. A 1 year vs. 3 year vs. 10 year vs. 13 year contract at different AAVs, total values, and medical ailments ...when combined all carry varying degrees of total risk that they can quantify pretty well. At some point, whatever actuarial process they use, the calculation tips from being in your favor (for fun let's say 10 years @ $285mil was 51% in your favor) to being not in your favor (let's say 12 years at $315mil was only 49% in your favor). Each team has their own threshold and gut, but any sophisticated business these days understands the Sunk Cost Fallacy or in poker terms the err of being Pot Committed. So yes with every incremental change in the variables, the risk calculation changes. The total risk for the Twins in 2022 with a 1-3 year contract given their knowledge of the medical history may have been pretty low. I highly doubt "they missed something" or "they are being cheap" as they negotiated in this offseason. My guess is that for any of the 30 teams, but definitely what we are seeing with the Giants and the Twins, their data is clearly telling them that they are on the losing side of the risk if they go above X. I would also guess that when they are weighing "risk" it is not just the risk of Correa being good or hurt. It is a holistic evaluation of risk that includes all of the potential variables that lead to a) a winning team, and b) a profitable business over some period of relatively predictable time. Anyway, I think it is far less emotional inside their board rooms than we think it is.4 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
TopGunn#22 and 3 others reacted to AceWrigley for a topic
Also, New York is a BIG market and the Mets are stacked to make a World Series run. I think Carlos wants to play there.4 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Shs_2 and 3 others reacted to Nick Nelson for a topic
I mean, let's be honest, you're evaluating through a different lens when you're talking about a 3-year deal vs. a 13-year-deal.4 points -
One Intriguing Shortstop Trade Target for the Twins
TopGunn#22 and 3 others reacted to tony&rodney for a topic
We try to be positive about the prospects and younger players and hope our core is healthy quite a bit. Then there are times many people are critical because of disappointment or different expectations. This is all part of being a fan. We hope that Jeffers can improve and Vasquez has a good year. We hope Kirilloff is fine and can play a solid 1st base and hit a load of line drives. We hope Polanco can deliver his odd year excellence full time. We hope that Miranda hits and shows that 3rd base is easy. We hope someone (Farmer, Martin, Gordon, Lee, Lewis) takes adequate care of shortstop. We hope Gallo and Kepler are relevant. We hope that Larnach, Wallner, and Gordon all prove their worth as MLB players. We hope that Buxton is healthy all year and wins an MVP. Lastly, we hope our pitching staff gives our offense an opportunity to grow up. That is a lot of hope but it is what the plan is for 2023.4 points -
The Twins Skimping on Correa Presents More Questions Than Answers
KnoblauchWasFramed and 3 others reacted to nicksaviking for a topic
It has absolutely nothing to do with the AAV. The problem is that they KNEW 285M would not get him here but acted like they thought it would. Going to 285M but no higher says that they wanted people to think they were serious, because yeah, that's serious money, but they didn't really want to pay it. It'd be like me offering Bruce Springsteen 20K for a private concert and bragging to my friends about how I'm a high roller. That's too much money for me to spend, but obviously he's got better gigs lined up and wouldn't accept it anyway. It was either an act, or extreme naivety. Both options are problems in my mind.4 points -
One Intriguing Shortstop Trade Target for the Twins
Valdespino and 3 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a topic
Why would they give up prospects for a guy they hope Lewis replaces in three months? I don't understand this at all.4 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
D.C Twins and 2 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a topic
The Twins need pitching because last year was a record year for free agent starters, and they sat it out. Just like this year. And every year.3 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
Dozier's Glorious Hair and 2 others reacted to dxpavelka for a topic
The Twins need pitching because a year and a half ago they traded away the best pitcher they've home-grown in a generation. You're right about Arraez' value not being what it is presumed to be by Twins fans. He won a batting title with an OPS under .800. That's hard to do. Hell, D.J. LaMahieu won a batting title with 10 home runs and his OPS was over 1.000. Arraez hits for average and not much else. He's not a plus defender. If you can get a front line starter for him, make the move with the same urgency you should have used to sign Berrios to the exact same deal the Jays signed him to.3 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Clare and 2 others reacted to Fire Dan Gladden for a topic
Buster Olney doing the dirty work... I am going to pull a quote from his paywall article today: Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants. But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York. I have said this in other places. Correa's final decision was not about money.3 points -
The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?
TwinsRealist and 2 others reacted to Doctor Gast for a topic
IMO Lopez trade was Correa's idea on being competitive because he wants to win. I trust Correa's judgement more than this FO. Now that Correa is lost, FO has floated the ridiculous rumors of trading Gray & Maeda along with signing Pollack, Turner or Gallo to see how the fan base will react. They must be listening to wrong fan base, because TD was overwhelmingly against any of these moves. I can't trust this FO on making an intelligent decision on their own. Not making the Lopez trade & signing Gallo, I'm more inclined that this FO will not do the right thing therefore they'll trade off Gray & Maeda. As an optimist, I still hope that that Levine would communicate with his buddies there in CO, that Kepler would be a great fit for them and Marquez would do better here.3 points -
Twins Had a Chance to Get Back in the Carlos Correa Mix, and Passed
Bob Twins Fan Since 61 and 2 others reacted to Minderbinder for a topic
Whatever it was didn't appear to bother Correa in September. The Twins AAV was the highest. I don't understand the attraction of a longer-term if both sides implicitly understand CC will never serve out that term. From the union's standpoint, I would think AAV would be the more important number. Ah well, time to move on. CC staying was a nice dream, but it's time to work with what we have.3 points -
Again? The Twins Lose Carlos Correa to the Mets.
Doctor Gast and 2 others reacted to Linus for a topic
It’s not about taxes! He can make an absolute killing in endorsements in nyc. Tax rates are non factor in the overall equation.3 points -
One Intriguing Shortstop Trade Target for the Twins
Karbo and 2 others reacted to RochesterDave for a topic
The Orioles are my 2nd fav team and I have seen a lot of Mateo. He is an absolutely dynamic SS with some pop (13. HRs) and a terrific base runner with elite speed. He would be a terrific fit for the Twins , but based on the Jorge Lopez trade last year , I would be hesitant that Mike Elias would pick Falvine’s pocket again .3 points
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I really hold back what I would like to say about then payroll arguments here. The fact that people don't accept the amount taken in dictates the amount going out requires one of two things. Extreme financial ignorance or fanatical bias that prevents the acceptance of something some basic. I did not change the argument. It's the same idiocy over and over. Do you really want to be on the side that suggests revenues does not determine spending capacity?· 0 replies
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