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He didn't define it by "are you eligible for MLB's Rookie of the Year", he was talking about rookies making their MLB debut, aka "how did these guys do in their first taste of MLB". There's no need to be so damned snotty.

I think by the end of 2022 we will finally be able to grade that trade. I am betting Alcala will be a dominant RP this year we saw at the end of 2021 and we have him for 4 more years. I think we see quite a bit of Celestino too.

The Twins have enough incremental revenue in comparison to the Rays that they can keep a couple of top players. The cant keep them all like the Dodgers but we can keep the most critical players. The Dodgers went from focusing on established talent (trades for established players & free agents) to a Rays type model and they have sustained excellence. Of course, the difference is they can pretty much keep all of their top players. They have built a powerhouse by keeping their best prospects. They have been very careful with long-term free agent acquisitions. It's the Rays model for a team with over double the revenue. We don't have to churn players the way the Rays do. What we need to do is exercise patients like the Rays. That means not trading good prospects for 1-2 year assets. It means not signing free agent SPs when you have several pitching prospects ready for their shot. For the Rays, it means never signing free agent pitchers to 5+ year deals because the rate of failure is simply to high. Our incremental revenue makes it more viable to sign a front of the rotation guy to a long-term contract if they build the rest of the staff from within.

Kiriloff was encouraging because he was hitting the ball hard and all over the field. He started to get hits to land when he hurt his wrist, which eventually required surgery. I believe that accounts for much of his drop off. I have little worry for him. Larnach on the other hand he seems to not have much excuse other than failing to adjust to pitching. He worries me if he does not make the adjustments of how MLB pitchers will pitch to him. Hopefully a new year he has a new mind set. Gordan did what he always does, starts off a new level very slow but gets better over time. I still hope he gets an actual shot to show what he can do in regular time. He has always been slow to adjust to new level of competition. Jax strikes me as future pen guy. Limit his pitch mix and let him go all out for shorter period I think will work best for him. Ober I am excited about as he got better over time, which is always a sign of improving. Ryan seemed good right away and I am excited for him too. I do expect some regression but he has the confidence for sure. Celentio was pushed due to injuries and never would have played otherwise. Hopefully he can develop into either a trade piece, a 4th outfielder, or the fill in for Buck when he gets injured.

I don't know who on earth would have predicted that Wade would hit 18 homers. I don't blame them for trading him, especially given that he was left-handed. I do wish they would have gotten a player that had some actual value, though. That's the real mistake to me.

I agreed with you entire post Doc but wanted to highlight this portion. I don't believe for a second they changed their mind because of public pressure. They are not out polling the public. They understood a long time ago the fans loved Buxton and just like many of us here, Buxton was a priority for them. However, this was a unique situation with his injury history which made it difficult to come to an agreement both sides could live with. There was no need to rush the deal and in the end they got it done.

Kirilloff made his regular season debut in 2021. He made an appearance in the 2020 post season. Those are kept as separate categories. Simple misunderstanding that many might miss. The post was just for 2021 regular season debuts.

Well if we gotta quibble then his official debut was 2021 since the game in 2020 was during the playoffs. I think that was stated in the article, but I'm too lazy to look.

When the title says DEBUT perhaps you should be less critical of meanings of words

Yeah I get that he was a rookie. I was just talking about players who debuted in ‘21

No I left him off because he made his debut in 2020

If shine means be one of the dominant pitchers in the league .... none. Berrios was bad his first year. The benchmark I am looking for will be pitchers that prove with little doubt they have what it takes to pitch at the top level and are here to stay. Another way of looking at might be they prove they are part of the solution. 2-3 guys who pass that measure as SPs would be great. I think we are also going to see a couple new BP guys emerge and this will be the year Alcala becomes the dominant RP we have been hoping he would become.

I looked up the baseball definition of "shine" and Webster said it was an acronym which stands for "Slightly Higher In Nicknelson's Expectations".

I would have to disagree with you about Sano. One of his biggest problems is that he chases pitches off the plate, especially when he has 2 strikes. I have said it many times on this site..... the 2 biggest holes in the lineup are Kepler and Sano and this team won't take the next step forward until they either figure out what they are doing wrong and correct it or are replaced with better hitters. I will go out on a limb and say it will be the latter.

The most interesting point is the 4.0 gpa from Rice. Isn't Rice one of the top engineering and tech schools in the country? Was so very excited about what he was doing last year, and equally disappointed when he was shut down. Can anyone tell me if elbow tendinitis is a precursor for TJ surgery? Hope like heck it isn't, because this young man could be the best of the best of this crop of young guns approaching Target Field.

Gleeman is pretty well connected and he's reported multiple times that the Twins were entirely set to trade Buxton to the Phillies at the deadline if the Phillies had a premium prospect they could've added. He's also reported they were entirely set on trading him during the offseason, but Buxton came to them to get the deal done. I think it's more than believable that they had no plans to extend Buxton after talks broke down at the deadline. As long as he was still on their roster they had the chance to extend him, but I don't think they had any plans to until he pushed the issue. Then Levine got creative and they figured things out. Of course they aren't out there polling fans on street corners, but you think they don't have a finger on the pulse of the fanbase? You don't think the Pohlads saw the number of season ticket holders dropping, and the constant complaints from the fan base about trading both Berrios and Buxton in the span of 1 season? It's pretty widely accepted the Pohlads forced the Mauer deal since they didn't think the PR hit would be worth the saved money. The voice (well pocket books really) of the fans absolutely plays a role in FO decisions. They have interns who check out message boards, twitter, etc.. Their season ticket reps email and call ticket holders all the time to see what they're feeling. They host season ticket holder Q & As with the FO so fans can give feedback. It's a business and they're not in the business of alienating their customers. So maybe it was just that Buxton came to them, or maybe it was the fan pressure, but every report I've seen is that the Twins were entirely set on moving on from Buxton and done with the extension talks. More than possible that those reports are wrong, or I missed other reports. But I think it's more than reasonable to think they had moved on from extension talks just like they said they had at the deadline.

Grades are always odd entities. When a player's debut is RotY, Cy Young, MVP, or something akin to Bert Blyleven it almost seems heretical to pass out an A to anything that just exceeds our expectations and make us hopeful for future performance but is well below All Star status. The other end of the spectrum is a failing or low grade for a player forced into MLB play well before they are ready because there just isn't another body on the 40 person roster to put in uniform. Either way, judgments are made and the post is excellent with information. While I would not have handed out any A grades this year, I don't disagree with the analysis or judgments passed. I would have been too lenient on the lower end, so no fails. Ober, Ryan, and Kirilloff get S+; Moran, Barnes, Gordon, and Jax get an S; and Larnach, Celestino, and Rortvedt get an S-, which roughly corresponds to B, C, and C-. The player I expect to rise above all others is Kirilloff. I'm interested in watching how Ober and Moran develop as pitchers, and believe that Rortvedt could be much more than expected. Barnes was smart to take an opportunity to pitch in Korea because while I think he can be a decent pitcher in the big leagues, he wasn't going to get much of a chance. He can prove himself overseas and still make a living.

Thanks. Good example of why it takes years to determine the outcome of some trades. This one could be very good for the Twins, but it may take seven or eight years to know.

I think the grades are fair and no need to quibble about a slight adjustment here or there. Pretty right on. Was very encouraged how Celestino responded at AAA and have pretty high hopes for him going forward as a versatile regular who will probably be an excellent 4th OF with potential for more. Larnach was also rushed a bit and I'm not worried. Through college he always hit and has shown that ability and a decent eye in milb thus far. He just needs to settle in and learn and adjust some more. I think he's going to be fine. Speaking of being rushed, we've seen Rortvedt progress slowly but surely as a hitter with some power potential to go along with his great defense and game calling. Really hoping he can spend the majority of 2022 at St Paul to really get his bat right. He will probably never be a great hitter, but he doesn't have to be. All he needs is to be decent, not be a K machine, and jack some balls with his natural strength. I was actually impressed by Gordon more than some. Despite looking like a 16yo standing in with a uniform that didn't quite fit, he looked like he felt he belonged. He leaned the OF on the fly and appeared to have aptitude and ability there. I was also encouraged that he finished strong. I think he has a chance to be a nice utility player with speed and a bat that doesn't embarrass. The speed is NICE! Ryan flashed that he's a keeper. Not sure what more Ober could have done. My goodness, he's refined his delivery for better health, consistency and velocity and made adjustments all through the year. Expectations should be tempered for a pair of rookies, but I don't think either of these guys are #5 SP. Moran could be nasty with just a little more time and control. He may not break camp on the ML roster, but we're going to see a lot of him in 2022. Jax was inconsistent, to say the least, game to game and inning to inning. But that slider looks pretty nasty. I could see him developing in to a pretty good middle reliever.

Interesting topic and discussion. One factor that wasn’t discussed is just how bad the stadium is. I have never been there, but have been led to believe it has terrible access in addition to being a dump. But what I am curious about is why so many of you crucify them for not spending more on player payroll. Isn’t their objective to win? They are doing that, better than most and arguably in baseball’s toughest division. How much they spend shouldn’t be a factor if they win more than most, should it? As someone who spent my life watching pennies in my businesses, I admire them.

Do you understand the definition of rookie. Obviously not so why are you writing this article?

Very interesting. Perhaps the best grade overall was the fact eight young prospects got their feet wet and offer encouragement for the future (didn't include Gordon or Barnes in that group). We can all quibble with grading, however, believe your grades for both Rortvedt and Celestino were too low. Neither should have been in MLB before late last year at the earliest, thus, we should have expected their bats to be quiet. Considering that only Kirilloff was the only one who was a Top 5 prospect (Larnach wasn't top 5 last year, was he?), 2022 and beyond should be exciting for Twins fans.

To me, 3-4 is the easy and obvious choice. Unless you want to include Ober and Ryan in the discussion, who have obviously already appeared and flashed despite being prospects. But we also need to define what "shining" means in regard to 2022. Ober and Ryan are still prospects, IMO, even though Ober has exceeded rookie status, based on IP. Winder is the next, obvious, next man up. I think Balzovic is the next, next man up. For both of these guys, it's just about being healthy and taking the bump daily after 2 weird years. Sands could be as good as either of these two. We keep forgetting about him. Why? Duran is the "wild card" because if the Twins could be, baseball gods bless, be in any sort of contention, he could be a late season arm for the pen before returning to the rotation. But I would do everything in my power to nurture and "baby" him in 2022 to keep him as a SP option going forward. Everyone forgets about Strotman, a top prospect who had TJ and then jumped to AAA bypassing AA ball. What's his future? He could be a 2022 surprise. I expect nothing in 2022 from SWR or Canterino because SWR is so damn young and had his 2021 year disheveled due to the Olympics. But I believe he will be ready for 2023. Canterino is a victim of 2020 and 2021 ramp up/injury. He just needs to be healthy and pitch. He'll be in AAA before the year is done. Like Duran, nurture the arm and don't give in to temptation to move him to the pen too soon. You didn't specify rotation arms vs SP arms. Unless the Twins made a mistake and someone drafts and keeps him, Jordan Gore will pitch for the Twins in 2022. Jax just might take his FB/slider combination and make a mark in the pen. There is a real chance Cano, and maybe Mason force themselves in to the pen. Not sure what "shine" means in regard to criteria, but a safe vote could be an easy vote 3-4, but there is easy potential for more.

PLEASE don't banish him to the bullpen!!! Who cares if he's well aged in high A. I still don't see the rush to chuck him in the bullpen when he has shown such potential as a starter. Maybe as the September call up, but I'd rather see him as a bonafide starter at 27 than a bullpen arm at 25.

Not convinced yet of Ober. He had some good moments but seldom was allowed to pitch into the fifth inning, so his ability to eat innings is unknown. That says fifth starter to me, which would be ok. Hope Baldelli shows a little more trust in him in 2022 and he earns it. Also not too optimistic on Jax but he’ll probably get some more chances.

I would consider myself a card-carrying member of the Rocco Hater's Club, but I don't see how he would be responsible for failing to roster a collection of competitive starting pitchers. Falvey and Levine? Sure. My gut feel is that we'll see some additions when/if the lockout ends, but they won't be any guys that you can pencil in for 150+ innings or really get excited about. They'll likely be 20ish start guys like Pineda, Wily Peralta or Brett Anderson that will give you a chance to win most of their starts and shave some innings off what is needed from the young guys, but they will have IL stints and won't usually go deep in games. I could easily see a reliever leading the Twins in Wins in 2022. Hell, Thielbar almost did it last year.

Count me in as well. I never agreed with comments suggesting they caved to fan pressure if they even paid attention. And good thing. This was a very difficult contract to hash out, so it took time. The number one factor in why the Twins were able to sign Buxton, and really the only reason, is that he sincerely wanted to be here so was ready to meet in the middle. Edit: Now after reading chpettit's comment I want to clarify. I agree that the Twins pay attention to the fanbase's mood and desires. When it comes to big decisions and strategy, however, I don't see them reacting to fan pressure. To be in their position you must have a strong and well thought out plan. You can't then waver all the time. I'll bet they were surprised when Buxton revealed how important it was to stay. He didn't do that right away as a basic negotiating tactic. Then Buxton showed he was willing to accept an offer the front office could stomach. Falvey and Levine probably had a reaction of surprise and relief as did many of us.

Been following this kid ever since I saw an earlier video of him. Great stuff and lots of movement. I think he's going to climb his way up to AAA in short order and make the Bigs in 2023. Love the bit about the "Woody" nickname.

I think two things to consider with this topic are: 1. What would comprise a "successful" debut for any of these pitchers who have not yet pitched at the major league level, and 2. Though the majority of these prospects will undoubtedly NOT pan out, the fact that there are so many encourages me to think at least 1 or 2 should develop into reliable MLB starters Of the list of "high end" potential starters I break them into three groups: Near Major League ready: Duran - Winder - Strotman - Balazovic- Sands- Vallimont Likely still a year+ out: Canterino - Varland - Woods Richardson - Enlow Others with real potential but likely at least 2+ years out: Petty, Rijo, Lawyerson, Mooney, Gross While its possible that a pitcher from group two could break through and debut this season, it would be very unlikely that any would make more than a handful (max) of late season starts, Woods Richardson is most likely closest, but at his young age, I'd expect he'd have to be absolutely lights out through mid-June to be any more than a late season callup. The might be true of Vallimont. The other 5 in group one all could reasonably have the chance to debut by mid-season, and unless the roster changes dramatically between now and the beginning of the season, Duran and Strotman would each have a chance to break camp with the big team. That being said, if any of the group can reasonably be expected to be penciled in as rotation guys in 2023 (ie have similar success as Ober/Ryan had in 2021) I'd say this was a successful debut. Though I would, of course, love to see 2 or 3 establish themselves as major league pitchers, I'd be stunned if that happened in 2022.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Badoo was a 22 year old who had missed 2020 due to no minor league baseball that season and had slashed .214/.290/.383 in 29 games in A+ in 2019. Nobody foresaw him being picked in the Rule 5 draft, much less having the season he did. If the roles had been reversed and it was the Twins who had picked him, TD posters would have been going insane saying how bad of a signing this was because he would have had to stay on the MLB roster all season. Wade had showed very little in his time with the Twins, slashing .211/.336/.347, Cave slashed .248./.328/.431 over the same period (.254/.321/.451 if you include 2018). Cave had a better track record in MLB and the Twins were hoping he would bounce back from a disappointing 2020. He got hurt early in did not. If I recall, there was some dissent here on TD about trading Wade last off-season, but nothing too bad. Until he started hitting in SF. If both continue to produce at the level they did in 2021 then yes, they can be added to the list of "The one that got away", but if they regress (see Goodrum, Niko) we will not be talking about them at all in a couple of years.

I agree Nick. While this last year's team underperformed and underwhelmed, it was still baseball, and I will always take even bad baseball over none at all.

I blame them. They chose Cave over Wade. Turned out to be a mistake - and we compound mistake by signing Cave again. Lamont was an on base machine in his brief call up. They had to pick Cave because we traded Gil for him. Good for Wade. I am happy for him. I am sad for us.

Click edit after hitting the 3 dots in the upper right corner of your comment. 99% of the comments? Well we got 17 comments and we all know the one comment you didn't like, so that would be 94.22%, just saying. Why do I mention this? No idea I must be very bored.

Yeah, it’s not like Zimmer’s tenure was an utter failure. As time passes on, he’ll still be remembered as a top coach in Vikings history. The team has unfortunately become stale, and it’s time for a different voice. I think the organization will be better off with a clean break of both Zimmer and Spielman to be honest. Maybe Spielman can adapt to a new coach, but why not get a fresh pair of eyes on the roster? Out of the 3 pillars on this team, Spielman, Zimmer, and Kirk I would tolerate Spielman staying in his role. And that’s not because I think we will find a better QB than Kirk in 2022. He’s just not an ideal QB to have on a rebuilding roster.

In 2018, the Twins traded Ryan Pressly for Celestino and Alcala.

Kiriloff was a C and expectations were an A, I am hoping to see the complete player for a complete season. Ober and Ryan both deserve A's as they came up and did exactly what we needed and did it well. Because he was thrown in and should not have been in the majors Jax gets a C. I was pleasantly surprised that Gordon did as well as he did and was really disappointed when Larnach could not stop his slide. What an interesting year for rookies. I wish we had seen more of them.

Another informative article Andrew! I agree with a few of the responses and even your analysis that the players like Rohrtvedt and Celestino were rushed and the harsh reality of your ratings is they didn’t perform well and deserve the grade you gave them,, but that’s how life goes…doesn’t mean they won’t be much better in ‘22. It’s amazing to see the deep insight about how all these performed against league comparisons. Keep up the great posts! The debates about debuts vs rookie status feel oddly unnecessary…

Nice write up of the 2021 debuts.

The grades on these guys are reasonable, but there's a lot of good in there even for someone of the guys with lower grades. (some...maybe not. There's a reason Charlie Barnes got cut from the 40-man.) The only thing stopping Kirilloff is health. I just hope the wrist thing isn't chronic, because he can flat-out hit, but with the bum wrist the power vanishes. But he's why I'm not terribly interested in renting a LF, because I think Kirilloff can play there just fine while mashing balls around the park. Ober & Ryan did great in their debuts, they just need more innings. The floor is 5th starter on both of them, and we won't know what their MLB ceiling is until they play more. My feeling is they're likely to be considered mid-rotation guys who could have all-star seasons if/when they have a year where everything comes together. lot to like there. Larnach had a tough year. Showed he could mash fastballs early, went to hell after they stopped throwing them to him and then got so messed up trying to deal with offspeed that he couldn't even hit fastballs once they started throwing them to him again. he was rushed a bit earlier than anyone would have liked, but I believe in his talent. Hopefully he can start the year at AAA, get a good reset, and refine his approach. Celestino is someone who looked like he had a brutal year...until you look beyond his MLB stats. He was dreadful at the plate in MLB, but he shouldn't have been up this early either. He did great when he got sent back to AAA, which is where he should have spent most of the year anyway. I like him to battle for the 4th OF job, since he should be able to play all 3 positions and the RH bat makes him a balance for the lefties in Kepler/Kirilloff in the corners and Larnach as a next man up. Moran is another guy I'm excited about. he had some rough numbers, but that changeup is legit. he's going to have to work on command so guy walk up looking to swing rather than walk, but if he gets it down enough then he's going to make some people look really silly chasing that change. Twins have had some great results with lefties throwing the change-up and Moran could be another one. I'm pumped about him.

Since and including 2008, the Rays have four losing seasons and two of those are 80-82 seasons. That run also includes three 95+ win seasons, a 100 win season, seven playoff years and two World Series appearances. They also won two-thirds of their games in 2020. All of that while playing in the AL East. That's one hell of a fluke.

There’s a reason why the Rays and A’s are consistently in the bottom 5 of attendance each year. And it’s not all directly related to their stadiums being a dump or bad locations. Why be a fan of teams that trade star players as soon as they become expensive? Sports is about entertainment, and attaching your fandom/excitement to players on your team. The Rays in their existence have only had Evan Longoria to attach their fandom to for a long period of time. Now they have Wander Franco, but I wouldn’t rule out them trading him too before his contract is up. Who was the last Oakland A’s player who wore their uniform more than 5-6 years? Would I love the Twins to replicate the Rays’ player development model? Absolutely. There are 29 other teams trying to replicate what they’re doing and only they have the voodoo magic to pull it off.

As someone who follows the majors and minors as a whole I'm all for the Twins being more "Rays-esque." But there's also some bad PR stuff in moving on from your best players so frequently. For fans who don't follow the league as a whole it is understandably frustrating to have so much roster turnover and I'm sure hurts their bottom line to some extent. But if we're just talking running a baseball team that's trying to win, then, yes, I want the Twins to follow the Ray's blueprint, but spend more money. Very broadly speaking the Rays have gotten very good at not losing good players for nothing. They extend who they can early and for cheap while trading others with more than a year or 2 of service to maximize their return when they know they can't (won't?) extend that player and they have a replacement or 2 ready. They've gotten very good at developing players and that's the lifeline of every organization. They'll trade prospects when needed, but since they've built such a deep minor league system, and trade for so many prospects, they are able to keep their pipeline moving. The Dodgers took Andrew Friedman from the Rays and he's built (on paper) a monster of an organization. The Dodgers are built on homegrown guys that they continue to replenish while also being able to spend the most in the game. (On another note...this is what will kill the game, the rich guys have started stealing the smart guys and the money difference is really going to matter moving forward) The Twins are building a really solid minor league system. They capitalized on a down year by moving Berrios for maximum return and got a ton for half a season of Cruz. Continue making those types of moves while also extending guys (my complaint is they were set on trading Buxton as well until fans made it real clear they'd revolt if they did) and bringing in FAs like Tampa can't (won't?) and you're in a great spot. That's why I'm against the idea of trading prospects at this time for 1 or 2 year pitchers that won't reasonably put the Twins over the top in 2022 (or 2023). The Twins have finally started to put together a pipeline of prospects and they should be keeping them to have replacements on hand and bringing in some FAs to fill in. I think this is the general plan the Twins current FO are trying to implement. The question is have they built the systems to develop guys the way they need. I think they screw up drafting so many corner, bat first guys who have only 1 way to impact a game. Tampa is loaded with up the middle talent that they then move to corners if needed. I'll always prefer a flier on a Cavaco type prospect than a Sabato type guy. There's some things the Twins do that I don't understand, but I think they're putting together an organization than can provide sustained success. Now we just need to see the results.

What's truly extraordinary is how the Rays have convinced the general public they don't have a lot more money to spend. I did the math awhile back and the Rays receive roughly their payroll in money directly from MLB (national TV rights, MLB.tv digital split, etc) BEFORE they receive any "competitive balance" money. Guess whose local TV broadcast contract is significantly more lucrative than the Twins? I'll give you one hint: their team name rhymes with DAYS. The Tampa Bay Rays are bad for baseball and are a scam. I began actively cheering against them once I did some basic math on their payroll expenditures versus their revenue. Fans need to realize this and stop tolerating their bull****, to be frank about it. What they do with their revolving door of laundry makes for a bad fan experience and no fanbase should tolerate it.

Maybe a bit harsh, but...also the way modern bullpens are constructed. You try to have 3-4 guys that form your core, that you think will be reliable for at least one more season, a couple of waiver pickups, and then a couple of young guys from your minor league system that look like they might be ready to contribute and develop into the next core guys. Rogers is a quality pitcher that even in a down year is very good, especially against lefties. Duffey was still very effective last season, just not dominant like the previous two years, and looks like a guy you can count on as a righty option. Thielbar has always been effective when he's been healthy and available, and he's been good as well the last two seasons. Alcala is a guy on the rise who is death against righties and maybe starting to figure out how to survive against lefties. A reasonable core to work with. Then you have guys from the system like Moran & Stashak and a few waiver guys like Garza & Cotton (both of whom have had success in MLB getting guys out in the bullpen) and you work from there. Working it this way, you can churn through guys that are ineffective until you find a combo that works, without getting stuck on a sunk cost fallacy. Teams overpay for supposed "shut-down" pitchers and "proven closers" who are really just decent relievers coming off a good year or getting put in a particular role. ChiSox are now paying Liam Hendriks $27M for the next two seasons when he's only been a dominant reliever since turning 30. If he stays dominant for these next two years, then great...but if he goes back to being the guy that he was his first 4 years as a full-time reliever, then he's drastically overpaid...and there aren't that many relievers who dominate for 5 years in a row in their 30's. The Twins approach to putting together a bullpen is a pretty good one, overall. And it should keep us from ever doing anything like trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps ever again.

To "Shine?" The BEST case scenario, one or two. And to "Shine" I'm saying Ryan/Ober like production over 110-120 innings, not anything close to Bert Blyleven's rookie year in 1970 (10-9 3.18 ERA). The odds are much greater many of them struggle. It will be front office malpractice if a solid SP arm or two isn't added via trade before the season to provide some stability. All of us are also "assuming" that Ryan and Ober will just automatically step in and improve or at least maintain last season's productivity. I'm just as guilty as everyone else in that and it's a BIG assumption. There are always surprises every season. Good and Bad. The current collection of starting pitcher candidates is pointing to a 100 loss season. If that happens, the Pohlad's should fire Rocco. Why should he be given any more rope than Molitor was ? And of course, Falvey and Levine should be checking out their resumes as well. If 2022 is the disaster I think it's lining up to be a housecleaning is in order. I wonder if the Pohlad's have already given the FO "assurances" that another disaster is acceptable. Other than the annoying lockout messing things up, I can't see how this level of inactivity is a "good" plan.

I think there will definitely be some pitchers in 2022. Past that, I cannot predict anything. After 2020 and 2021, I'm not comfortable predicting anything about this pitching pipeline but Falvine's jobs should ride on the success or failure of said pipeline.

3-4 seems like the obvious choice to me. It's also what the team will need to have in order to have any sort of relevance. If they can get more, that's not only gravy but could also keep them around .500 and/or in playoff conversations. That said, I don't know how much of that will be sustained. There will almost certainly be stretches of sheer brilliance, followed by sustained mediocrity as these guys try to get through their first big league season or debuts. I expect to see lots of fresh faces coming up from the minors. Some bigger names, some not so much so. Some will catch on and hang around, some will crash and burn and get sent back to St. Paul in short order. As @Sconnie has stated here and several other threads, there is going to be an innings gap and someone has to pitch those. It could get pretty ugly at times. It could be marvelous at times too though.

I think we will see several pitchers come up, but how many will shine? I chose a hopeful 1-2 … we will need that many to shine

There's a lot of things that the Rays do well in player development that I'd love the Twins to replicate, but there are a lot of constraints to their organization that probably drive some of those things too. What they've been able to sustain is quite incredible, but I don't really see any other teams effectively duplicating what they do with regularity. It seems that the Rays have to be creative to remain competitive. They've been very good at it, and it is extremely impressive. Too bad that many in Florida don't care. I'm not convinced that getting a new ballpark in a better location will help that. Their ability to lock in their young stars early is risky, but I like that aggressiveness in trying to retain the elite players that come out of their system.

I believe the word you’re looking for is “necessity”