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Buxton could easily steal 50+ bases. But as long as he continues to hit more doubles than singles, his stolen base numbers will be limited. He should probably get credit for a stolen base every time he turns a single into an extra base hit.

Outside of Jake Odorizzi accepting his qualifying offer, and thereby filling one of several 2020 rotation vacancies, the first month of Minnesota's offseason was quiet – at least, in terms of real action. But there's been no shortage of reported rumors involving the Twins. Let's read between the lines and see if we can find substantive takeaways behind these rumblings, as well as developing storylines elsewhere.Here are five conclusions I've drawn based on signals rising from the offseason landscape. 1: The Twins will need to pay a hefty premium to sign Zack Wheeler The team's interest in Wheeler is no secret. It's also clear they have company in this regard. Corey Kluber is on the same timeline (FA after 2021) and his name came up in rumors last winter, so I fully expect to see it happen again. Trading either Lindor or Kluber would signal a pseudo-rebuild for Cleveland. Click here to view the article

Your dad can be relied on for three things: Backing into a parking spot whenever possible; questioning the reliability of any meteorologist with a “Wish I could get paid for being wrong half the time” remark; and confiding that he really thinks this is Kyle Gibson’s breakout year every March.As of Wednesday, the latter is in flux. Gibson signed a 3-year, $30 million deal with the Texas Rangers after spending his entire career with the Twins organization. Your dad’s opinion on the matter was hard to gauge in a brief pre-Thanksgiving phone call. “He was more upset about the city plowing in his driveway after he just got done shoveling,” you told your spouse, who nodded disinterestedly as she watched a Hallmark Christmas movie with Candace Cameron Bure. “I don’t think he’s quite processed what happened.” Gibson’s signing takes one more option off the table for his former team, as the Twins look to build a rotation that can complement a playoff-ready lineup. It also means your dad’s perennial Spring Training opinion may change or go away entirely. “I don’t know where his head is at. These are uncharted waters,” you said to your teenage daughter, who nodded disinterestedly as she browsed TikTok videos. “I don’t think he’s ever said word one about the Rangers, but maybe he’s genuinely invested in Kyle Gibson and his career.” Prior to Gibson’s arrival in 2013, your dad’s most commonly expressed preseason thoughts were wishing Justin Morneau could get healthy and that Phil Cuzzi should be tried in The Hague. “Maybe once they sign somebody, or if they make (Brusdar) Graterol a starter again, that’ll get him focused on 2020,” you said to your dog, who nodded disinterestedly before unleashing another volcanic fart due to the turkey and ham your brother kept feeding him at dinner. “I don’t know where this goes from here. I don’t know if he does either.” Your dad was unavailable for comment on the matter, but he did characterize the potential of another winter storm this weekend as “bullcrap.” Click here to view the article

I have been a Twins fan for well over 50 years, and even in some of the bleakest years of the 70's and the 90's, there was still something to cheer about. If you didn't follow the Twins during those 70's, you missed prime years of Rod Carew and Bert Blyleven, the early years of Roy Smalley, the best days of one of the Twins better pitchers, Dave Goltz. Or Larry Hisle's entire time with the Twins. And Butch Wynegar, maybe the best Twins catcher not named Joe Mauer. Gave up on the Twins in the 90's? You missed most of Brad Radke's better years. And Chuck Knoblauch before he imploded. You missed the 3000th hits of Dave Winfield and Paul Molitor. The final years of Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett. And you missed the early days of the 2000's teams, back when you could see the talent budding even if it hadn't clicked yet. Torii Hunter, Dougie Alphabet (Mientkiewicz), Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones, Christian Guzman, Johan Santana, Eric Milton and lest we forget David Ortiz. I know most of the people reading these pages are fans year in and year out, but a good many fans are fair weather only. Every year has it's special moments, and many games in every year have memorable moments. I've missed very few games over the last 50 years, and I'm glad I followed through good and bad.

I was born in 1951 and grew up in Winnipeg. During the 1965 season my parents took me to my first MLB game at Met Stadium. It was a hot summer night and the Yankees were in town and Dave Boswell was on the mound. For me, it was a magical evening and I fell in love with the Twins. I don't think I've missed a box score since! Even though I never attended another home game I've had a wonderful time as a fan. In the late 70's Calvin Griffith invited my wife and I for coffee after a game in Seattle. (I've lived in Vancouver most of my adult life). Calvin and I spoke, by phone every Spring training when he was in Orlando. And, for me, the icing on the cake was this past March when my two sons (now Twins fans) took me to my first Spring Training in Ft Myers. It's been a great ride and I've loved every minute of it. During the past summer my son also took me to Target Field and during that trip had the pleasure of meeting Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes @ Mall of America, Thank you so much to the terrific writers who run and contribute to TD. It's such a pleasure compared to the pre-internet days when I subscribed to the StarTrib and waited weeks for outdated mail!

I agree with ashbury. I was looking at the defensive metrics of Buxton and Kepler and they are impressive. He definitely shouldn’t be negative. In particular, I like the inside edge fielding given by fan graphs, where Kepler caught 67% of the “even” balls (should be caught 40-60% of time) at both positions. For crazy numbers, go look at what Buxton has there. For example, he catches 20% of the Remote (1-10%) balls and 68% of the Unlikely (10-40%) balls. A healthy Buxton goes a long way to improving the pitching staff.

The one I have the biggest problem with is #1. While you can predict regression to the mean for the typical individual player, to expect all 4 to regress to below that number and no one else to emerge above it? Odds are someone won’t regress that much.

A diuretic is not a PED. As for a masking agent, HCTZ works slower than furosimide, thus it not ideal for a masking agent

For those questioning Wheeler's worth, it appears that you are in the minority. From an ESPN article polling 15 team execs/insiders: "6. Of the second-tier guys, which of these free-agent starting pitchers would you most want your team to sign this winter: Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler or Dallas Keuchel? Survey says: Wheeler 8; Bumgarner 4; Keuchel 2; Three-way tie 1" Here's a link to the entire story: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28160749/hot-stove-survey-mookie-betts-block-gerrit-cole-crack-300m-mlb-gms-insiders-weigh-in Edit: Okay, so in reading the entire article, there are some detractors. "8. Who is the one player most likely to be overpaid on a big contract this winter? Survey says: Wheeler 4; Grandal 2 (Grandal signed with the White Sox after our survey was complete); Nicholas Castellanos 1; Daniel Hudson 1; 7 respondents declined to answer."

Never lost the love. Baseball is a drug. I bought a subscription to BA (a guy named Simpson, not Homer was editor I think) in 1983 and remember finding Twins' fans writing about 15 years ago (was either SethSpeaks or Gleeman - was click #11 on their counter) on the internet and have loved the coverage ever since. I never missed a pitch selling beer in the Dome for 3 years and have always found something positive to hold onto, even in really depressing seasons. Last season was pretty exciting and like everyone else I am hopeful for more.

I do not think there is a "next" scenario right now. Jow Mauer was an exceptional talent. Jaffe (@Fangraphs) has him at # 7 all time among catchers. Catchy and supportable; he was an amazing player. Who can envision a crazy trade? The cold weather catches us dreaming up nonsense ideas. Would a Buxton, Berrios, plus lower mler for Paddock, Gore, and Patina be crazy enough? How valuable is Garver or Sano to other teams? I can remember Liriano reducing Oakland's best hitters to dust in an April 2006 outing and Nathan's snorting like a horse was the prelude to exciting Twins' victories. Trades are difficult to pull off and I'm not sure there have been as many players in the 21st century as predictable for success as Joe Mauer.

I don't remember ever not liking baseball, and it was sealed by being a seven-year-old in 1973 as Hank Aaron chased Babe Ruth. I remember coming home from school each day to check the paper and see if he'd hit another. My older brother was a Cardinals fan, so I started in that direction, with Lou Brock as my favorite. Sometime during the 1973, the man who would become my brother-in-law convinced me that the Twins were a better team to follow, and tuned me in to WHO Des Moines ("coast to coast, border to border, and then some"), which was a key cog on the radio network, and I latched on to Tony Oliva as my new favorite player, since Paul had dibs on Rod Carew. I was a die hard as a kid during the 1970s, with a particular highlight on June 26, 1977, that I wrote about in a Game Thread intro at: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/26496-game-thread-twins-indians-62517-1210-cdt/?hl=thread. Interest waned a bit for me during high school in the early 1980s, but I was sucked back in in 1987 and will go on record as saying that I was optimistic enough in spring training 1991 to have changed my answering machine to provide daily updates on how good they were going to be that year. Though being a Twins fan has been a constant since then, things were certainly cemented when my first son was born. My wife was working evenings at the time, so that gave me the opportunity to teach my son the alphabet by explaining that "B is for Bostock, C is for Carew, D is for Disco Dan Ford," etc. It worked, and he's become even more of a geek than me, though living in northern Indiana where Cubs games were on so many days when he came home from school has sentenced him to that lifetime of misery. I would be remiss, however, in not taking the opportunity to also give props to Twins Daily. This web site has taken a Twins fan to an entirely different level. Thanks, all.

The question this raises is - who is now ready to push a top quality player out? Is Lewis a reason to trade Polanco? Is Larnach, Kiriloff, Raley the impetus for trading Rosario - Kepler? Give me the next scenario.

There seemed to be a lot more marketing of players and their teams, as well as players in the major league baseball orbit. That ash changed with litle or no loyalty on both ends, sadly. But back to records. Have changed with the times, numebrs of games, way the game is played. Especially team records. But soemthin to alk about who bring recognition to a certain stat. My gripe is talking about being "such and such" against the Tigers last year, or the record of the Twins against the Yankees. The teams change so much, even in a year now, that you can't judge how that guy pitched or played against last year's version of any team, so why do it?

I am surprised that there isn't "radio" between the dugout and catcher/pitcher. Instead of the catcher looking to the dugout sometimes for a pitch call. Errors. Happens if a bad throw from the catcher to a base which allows for an advancement of the runner. The passed ball is essentially an error, but still not an error unless a runner scores. It's when the catcher looks to have control but misses the ball. Yes, don't understand why NOT just call it for what it is. Boy, not only does a catcher have to know all about a batter (as should the pitcher), but ahs to work in conjunction with the pitcher for a throwing plan. And what happens when a new pitcher comes in? Which is why you see more and more catchers lined-up with specific rotation arms. Imagine doing the squats of a catcher, having to watch the game thru a mask, keeping the arm in shape to throw back 140 times to the mound. The catcher throws more pitches, per say, than the pitcher in a game. Just doesn't need the speed or pinpoint control. I can live with the electronic umpire. So the catcher doesn't have to play the games with their glove so much. Maybe eliminate some wild pitches and passed balls, too.

No issues. I still don't understand list year's playing time.... And am, therefore, concerned about next year's. So we agree!

Maybe don't run the ball on third and ten, twice in the second half, basically giving up the drive? Play to win....

As disappointed as I am in this loss, I'm confident we haven't seen the peak of this team. Fleck needs to recruit some legit running backs though, and some reinforcements for the front 7 on defense. And have a long talk with whomever thinks it's a good idea to give Rodney Smith the bulk of the carries, I don't get that.

Would be nice to see the Gophers play in one B1G Championship game in my lifetime... I’m sure they would get blown out by Ohio State but it’s still something I’d like to see. I hope this isn’t the peak we’ll see in the Fleck era. The road is only going to get more difficult when they have to play Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State again.

First of all, I want to take this time and space to say Thank You to the Twins Daily community. From the owners/founders, to Tom Froemming for all he does, to each of our writers, to the moderators, to those who are active in the blogs and forums, to those of you who just like to come here for the articles. It's been a special year at Twins Daily and I would like to thank all of you. With that, I'd like to do another Ask Seth article. I noticed that I haven't done one since April, so it's about time. Over the next 24-36 hours, I will answer the questions that show up in the Comments below in this article. So feel free to Ask Away.Leave a question or two in the comments below and I will answer them in the article itself. Ask me about the Twins, the offseason, minor leaguers, Rule 5, or whatever you want, within reason. I'll answer them first-come, first-serve. (and obviously, within reason and rules and such.) Let's get the Questions started... From ChiefsKid: What's a realistic expectation of opening day 2020 payroll? Seth: I think putting the expectation at $130 million is more than fair... I also think it's a fairly good over-under as Twins Geek wrote a couple of weeks ago. If you subscribe to the payroll being 48-50% of revenues number that the Players Union has encouraged, they should probably be closer to $140-145 million. From mikelink: My request for you is a rating question:Please give me a top ten prospect list for potential 2020 positions on the 26 man squad, considering the normal number of injuries. Seth: That's a tough question... but I'll try... 1.) Alex Kirilloff 2.) Brusdar Graterol 3.) Jhoan Duran 4.) Brent Rooker 5.) Edwar Colina 6.) Travis Blankenhorn 7.) Lewis Thorpe 8.) Nick Gordon 9.) Devin Smeltzer 10.) Jorge Alcala Those are guys I think could be called up in 2019, ranked by how they are currently in my prospect rankings... But if anyone wants to say that we will see Royce Lewis, I won't argue with you. Same with Trevor Larnach. Next on my list would have been Sean Poppen who I had one place below Alcala. From beckmt: Do you see the twins signing one of the top 6 FA pitchers? Do you see C.J. Cron coming back? Seth: Yes, I see the Twins signing one of the big 5 (not sure who the #6 might be). No, I don't expect them to sign Cole or Strasburg, but I think Wheeler and Bumgarner are definitely in play. I think they'll get one of them. And, I don't think they'll bring Cron back, at least not by tendering him an arbitration deal. Had he been healthy all year, it would have been an easy decision. Now, I'm not so sure. Personally, I probably would bring him back, now that he's had the thumb surgery because he was really good until the initial June injury. He's good, and even if he's not great, he could spend the second half as a platoon guy with Kirilloff. From MN_ExPat: Happy Thanksgiving Seth. Ok, of the remaining FA pitchers, who do you think/believe will ultimately sign and help bring our boys to the promised land? Also, who is your favorite Dark Horse rookie/prospect to this year's Arraez? Seth: Well, first, I think the Twins could sign Cole or Strasburg and it wouldn't guarantee them anything... I personally am starting to think that Wheeler is most realistic, though Bumgarner makes some sense too. Man, that Arraez question is tough. However, the things about Arraez were that he was a solid prospect who produced at every level, had some time in AA, added to the 40 but probably not in the 2019 plans. So, I'll go with Jhoan Duran. I think Blankenhorn might be more similar but there are infielders, so I wanted to go with another position. Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach are higher-ranked prospects so wouldn't be surprising. Duran only has a handful of AA starts, and while he's a talent, he's not a Top 100 guy and I don't think he''s necessarily in any 2020 plans. But, given a shot, he could take off. From AZ Twins: I see a lot of people with “grass is greener” mindset. Which Twins player would Twins fans be most excited about joining the Twins if he came from another team? Is this player the same person you think has the most potential on the Twins? Seth: So many possible answers. Could say Polanco or Kepler because they were most productive. Nelson Cruz was incredible. I would say Jose Berrios would be the Twins player that the Twins fans would be most excited about if he came to the Twins from another team this offseason. He's obviously younger, but he's been better than Wheeler, who will get huge money. Has upside. As for the player with the most potential, that clearly continues to be Byron Buxton. From Rochester Dave: Do you have any sense if the front office is happy with the AAA affiliation being in Rochester? There is only One direct flight (Delta) between the cities daily and across baseball there seems to be a trend towards the affiliates being closer to the major league city. I should add that I believe that the Red Wings are quite happy with the Twins. I know, I am looking forward to Graterol, Larnach, Kiriloff and Lewis in the not so distant future! Also, have you ever visited Frontier Field? Seth: I have not been to Frontier Field. I would love to. I flew in to Syracuse once for work 15+ years ago, drove south to Cortland and then flew out of Binghamton. That's probably as close as I've been. I don't have any sense of that, but I would think the Twins are happy to be with the Red Wings. I'm sure there are little things here and there, but I don't think that the flight situation is a negative. Only negative is how early it is. I don't necessarily see it as a trend yet for AAA affiliates to be closer, there are a few, but maybe any potential rework of the minor league systems with any "contraction" might facilitate some of that. And, the Red Wings should be happy with the Twins. They have a pipeline of prospects that will show up more in 2020 and beyond, and they do a nice job bringing in good minor league veterans too, allowing them to be more competitive. From tarheeltwinsfan: Do the Twins have a binding contract with Elizabethton, which will be breached if the Elizabethton team is eliminated by MLB? Who pays for the extensive renovations which the city of Elizabethton has done recently? Seth: I am not certain the specifics of the Twins deal with Elizabethton. Most Player Development Agreements are signed for two years. The Twins have done a couple of four year deals over the years. The Twins contributed some, but I believe the majority of the ballpark renovations were (and may continue to be) paid for my the taxpayers of Elizabethton. NOTE: This article indicates that Elizabethton will pay $1.5 million and the Twins will pay $800,000 toward the ballpark renovations. From mike link: I was surprised, but not disappointed that Raley was not in the top 10 of prospects to make it on the Twins Roster in 2020.I suspect he is more of a trade prospect. Seth: He probably should be in the Top 10 of that ranking. I truly think that we underrate him, myself included. As I've pointed out, when he was hurt in late-April, early-May, he was making a great impression on the Red Wings and people were taking notice. He is a really good hitter. Maybe not quite the power of Rooker, but much less swing-and-miss, more speed, better defense and will likely hit for more average. He definitely wasn't added to the 40-man roster just to be a trade chip. Now, he could be traded but that isn't the reason ever to add a player. From SteelDodo: Do you have your favorite mlb draft strategies that you prefer? (HS pitcher, HS batter, college pitcher, college batter, etc.) From what I've read, generally, college position players have a higher success rate than pitchers, so I tend to agree with our current FO on spending early draft picks and most of the international money on position players. Having said that, do you think the strategy is TOO batter heavy? What would you do differently if you were in charge of Twins drafting? Seth: That could be a series of articles on its own. My overall theme would simply be to take whichever player you believe has the best chance of being the best player overall. Honestly, outside of a few #1 or #2 overall college pitchers, there aren't a lot of givens in the draft. There are examples of high school and college, hitters and pitchers taken in the Top 5 picks who bust or become stars, in most every organization. I do think that generally pitchers are more risky, but I also think that you have to take those risks sometimes and then hope. In recent years, they've mixed it up pretty well. They've taken college pitchers and high school hitters and pitchers high. They've taken some college bats high the last few years. And then they seen to just add a ton of college arms late, which is hard to argue against as a strategy. From Richard Swerdlick: I am thinking of getting a subscription to MILB TV in 2020 so I can watch some of our prospects. Any thoughts about MILB TV as a service? Seth: I have had MiLB.tv for several years. It's great but fully dependent upon the work done by the affiliates. Rochester does a good job. Pensacola does a really good job. Cedar Rapids has a great production. Ft. Myers and Elizabethton don't have feeds. The nice thing too is that you can go back to games and find highlights. I probably don't use it to its fully potential. From goulik: Raley, Rooker, Larnach... can you rate these three in comparison to each other offensively, defensively, greatest potential, and highest floor? Seth: Larnach is the top prospect of the group. He could hit for average, should add power over time too. Probably the best of the three on defense. Greatest overall potential. Rooker has the most power potential but it will come with the most swing-and-miss. Raley may have the highest floor, though Larnach might too. Raley's just solid all-around. Could hit for some average, some power, and play solid defense. From Rosterman: People don't get excited about the signing of minor league free agents, and in the past it was reported as Big News, but now seems to gets hedlines at MLBtraderumors. You would think that with around 150 players in your organization, one wouldn't need to sign players to mostly play at AAA ball (with a few starting their next turn at AA ball). Can you explain to all of us the reasoning behind minor league free agents, the reason an organization will spend extra money to bring in players looking for a comeback or stalled then jettisoned by a team, or reflect on some gem moments you might remember of such signings in, prhaps, the past decade? Seth: I think the biggest reason is that baseball is hard. Playing AAA ball is really hard, and only a select number get there and succeed there. Teams need to fill AAA rosters. However, it's also important to have depth so that you don't put your prospects in a bad place. First and foremost, teams are going to do what is best for their prospects, at least the top prospects and probably even the secondary prospects. Could the Twins have called up Alex Kirilloff or even Trevor Larnach in September instead of adding Ian Miller (veteran but came in a trade) or Ryan LaMarre? Sure. Would that have been good for the Twins or the player? Who knows? So it's about protecting prospects and filling out a AAA roster. It's also just about having depth. Blaine Hardy is a big-league pitcher, and he can help the 2020 Twins in a role. If they keep adding more players, maybe that role is to start the season at AAA and when the Twins have a need, he gets called up. The Twins have had a lot of successes with minor league free agent signings. I'm not going to look too far back, but Willians Astudillo proved to be a good minor league signing. Ryne Harper was a good minor league signing. LaMarre was a good minor league signing. By their nature, you're not going to find any stars as minor league free agents. That's very rare. But you can find complementary parts that help a team win games. Click here to view the article

An automated strike zone may be further away from the majors than we think. Baseball Prospectus wrote about all of the hurdles before it can be a useful tool. One of the hurdles that had me most concerned is setting the top and bottom of the strike zone. Every plate appearance has a unique top and bottom of the strike zone depending on the height and stance of a batter. Right now two methods have been employed to determine the top and bottom of the zone. “ PITCHf/x originally used poorly paid “stringers” to sit in a dark room under the stands and manually turn a dial to set the top and bottom of the zone on the video image of the batter. Saunders reports that Statcast uses the previous calls of major league umpires to build a database of the top and bottom of the strike zone for each hitter.” The automated zone is a result of the previous calls from human umpires. What happens after a few years and the data of previous calls isn’t available for many batters? Do we go back to humans setting it before each pitch? https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/ I have doubts that Garver will see the automated zone in his career. The Twins would be wise to continue teaching and seeking this skill.

Your comment had me wondering about playing time calculations and whether they had meaning or changed. I did some searching and reading on fangraphs and shared. I apologize for quoting your post. I think too often a quote is taken as meaning a different point of view. I should have written without the quote. It would be crazy not to want Garver to play more.

That may have made 1987 a little awkward but I cannot argue with St Louis... I lived there for a little while and enjoyed many a game at Busch Stadium watching Ozzie Smith. They are my NL team.

I personally believe a big part of rating a prospect should be likelihood of making it as a Major Leaguer. Someone with a 75% chance of having a major league career and 5% chance of being a star is better than a player that has a 15% chance of being a star and 75% chance of never making it past AAA. Based solely on Seth’s comments above and having nothing to do with the random %s I just used, I would rank these 3: 1) Larnach 2) Raley 3) Rooker In the same vein I rated Wade and Arraez higher than many in the past. Seth, When do you think Rortvedt will appear in the majors for the first time and how big a difference do you see between him and Jeffers?

This is fun, thanks for sharing. I suppose a lot of my story is a bit similar to yours, just set in a slightly earlier era. I was born in the mid-80s, so it was pretty easy to get wrapped up into World Series fever. Being a kid in Minnesota around that time, Kirby Puckett was right up there with Batman and the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles as your favorite superheroes. I always remained interested in baseball, but my family's interest in the Twins specifically tailed off in the mid-90s. The strike hurt, but the Twins being completely irrelevant was probably the bigger factor. I personally started getting back into the Twins a bit in 1999, then attended a bunch of games the next season. You could get in the Metrodome for $4 in 2000, so it was never too difficult to find somebody interested in going, and I'm sure my parents were thrilled to get me out of the house It just so happened that 2000 club was also a really fun team. Really bad, but really fun. A lot of the core guys in that group developed into the next winning Twins team. To have followed that progression was a really rewarding fan experience. Witnessing the 2002 team beat contraction, essentially sticking it to the man, was a kind of thing that leaves quite an impression on a teenager. I have the same feelings toward that team as a lot of people have with their favorite band/musicians from their teenage years. I'd say I was a Twins fan by birth. Both my parents and my brother and sister enjoyed baseball. My grandpa listened to every game, so Herb Carneal and John Gordon were basically the background music of my summers growing up. But, it was all the time I spent as a teenager at the Metrodome from 2000-02 that really pushed things beyond casual fandom for me.

You don’t believe it affected his pitching, and I do. Here’s a guy, Pineda, on the wrong side of 30 (to borrow a phrase from the Gibson/Bumgarner discussions), could never stay healthy, then in 2019 arguably put up his best career year, while come to find he had a banned substance in his system. If the calendar rolls around to January and February, and he looks in shape and hasn’t signed yet, and his agent calls, then I offer him a one year guaranteed deal, sure. Otherwise I just don’t spend much time thinking about him. By the way I’m glad to be in the minority on this.

The substance he was caught using was a known masking agent. However, his suspension was reduced after it was found that he was indeed NOT using the substance to mask anything. This appears to be one of those cases where the guy just wasn't paying attention. I'd liken it to a player who got caught with THC in his system after taking some over-the-counter hemp supplements. Was it stupid? Yeah. Did it have any affect on his pitching? Nope.

I'm wondering what the Steamer projections were going into the 2019 season. I'm guessing they weren't close to what actually happened.

Thanks for doing this! Do you have your favorite mlb draft strategies that you prefer? (HS pitcher, HS batter, college pitcher, college batter, etc.) From what I've read, generally, college position players have a higher success rate than pitchers, so I tend to agree with our current FO on spending early draft picks and most of the international money on position players. Having said that, do you think the strategy is TOO batter heavy? What would you do differently if you were in charge of Twins drafting?

I have no way to challenge Steamer, but I am not a Raley fan and I hope Kiriloff and Larnach take any ABs that he would have and that he is part of a trade! Blankenhorn is only if Sano is injured - I sure hope not. Sano is more of a 40+ HR hitter to me. He is not limited by the juiced ball like Polanco and others are. If Garver is only 96 games he has regressed. If this projection is true Jeffers will have a lot more than 1 AB. I want Buxton to steal 50! I know I am retro. I also believe in Arraez and he will hit the doubles that bring his OPS up. Finally, my most controversial stance - I am not as big on Kepler as many are - so I will say that Rosario will have more WAR that Max - take your shots!!!

Do the Twins have a binding contract with Elizabethton, which will be breached if the Elizabethton team is eliminated by MLB? Who pays for the extensive renovations which the city of Elizabethton has done recently?

I just hope nobody snatches up Tyler Wells. Because frankly, he’s better than all of these guys. He’d most likely already be on the 40 man if he hadn’t had TJ.

Do you have any sense if the front office is happy with the AAA affiliation being in Rochester? There is only One direct flight (Delta) between the cities daily and across baseball there seems to be a trend towards the affiliates being closer to the major league city. I should add that I believe that the Red Wings are quite happy with the Twins. I know, I am looking forward to Graterol, Larnach, Kiriloff and Lewis in the not so distant future! Also, have you ever visited Frontier Field?

I see a lot of people with “grass is greener” mindset. Which Twins player would Twins fans be most excited about joining the Twins if he came from another team? Is this player the same person you think has the most potential on the Twins?

Happy Thanksgiving Seth. Ok, of the remaining FA pitchers, who do you think/believe will ultimately sign and help bring our boys to the promised land? Also, who is your favorite Dark Horse rookie/prospect to this year's Arraez?

Do you see the twins signing one of the top 6 FA pitchers? Do you see C.J. Cron coming back?

IDK … There is always a demand for SPs but it seems like there is as much demand as ever this year. Given the way Pineda was pitching before the suspension, I would think there will be a fair amount of interest in him. MLB Rumors had him 17trh overall, two spots ahead of Gibson. They had Gibson predicted for 2/18 and of course he got 3/30. I just don’t see Pineda still looking for a job when spring training starts. 2/20 with a 3rd year option sounds pretty good to me.

What's a realistic expectation of opening day 2020 payroll?

I'll be a bit surprised if Pineda signs anything other than a 1 year deal.... that's my 2 cents. That said, I'll also be a bit surprised if we acquire 3 pitchers as well. I think at best we sign 2 pitchers, and if we sign Pineda, he's the second pitcher... I'm not against getting him, it's a cheap 1 year deal that allows us to get a little exposure for Graterol, Dobnak, and Smeltzer. Graterol won't be starting all year long anyways, so that's a way to get him to his 100-120 IP limit and do so in MLB.

Winning fills the stands. There has been countless examples of teams with superstars that don't win and don't fill the stands. I recall similar statements being made about Cueto a few years ago, Darvish two years ago, and blanket statements about going all-in for the big RPs on the market last year. Blind faith has it's charms but I don't want our team run with it. We should also ask if spending $35M+ on one player is the best way to build a winner outside of a top revenue market. Why haven't GMs of other mid or small revenue teams have ever made a similar signing with the exception of Arizona when they had just signed a billion dollar TV contract? Are these big names FAs just not inclined in general to sign with a small/mid market team. Have the dozens of GMs that have been in this position all incompetent? Why doesn't it happen. Arizona got Greinke but that was a very abnormal set of circumstances. Washington signed Scherzer but their incremental revenue more than pays for Scherzer so while Washington is a closer comparison than the Yankees or Dodgers, their revenue has been substantially higher than the Twins or other teams below the twins in terms of revenue. I would be quite happy with Wheeler and Pineda.

A contending team can’t give a 40 man roster spot to a player who reasonably won’t be ready to help in the majors the next two seasons. Javier may get picked but it will reduce the odds that he will ever be successful in the majors. He needs to play after missing 2018 and really struggling in low A. If 2020 is lost to a bench role he will need at least the next two years in the minors. After that it 2023 and he will be 24 and almost out of options. If Rijo had more swing and miss he would have more strikeouts and more walks in low A. Those higher walk rates at the lower levels can be troubling but also a sign that the batters are struggling to put the ball in play and the counts are going deeper. I think Rijo needs two more year before he is ready to be tested at the major league level. I don’t think the Twins would have been wise to start the options clock on him. A contending team can’t afford to keep Javier, Rijo and Celestino on the 40 man roster. The Twins made a space for one guy who won’t reasonably help next year. I think the picked the right one.

I wish him the best in a Rangers uniform. The Twins gave him every opportunity to succeed. There were occasional flashes of brilliance when he would come out and challenge the hitters, but inbetween those flashes were never ending appearances where he'd nibble himself to death. If there ever was a pitcher that didn't believe he had the "stuff" to get hitters out, he was the guy.

If we bring back big mike and only sign one of the second tier FA SPs, and trade for a cost controlled SP (or plan on rolling with our young guys) that leaves a lot of money to go after a 3B/1B. I like it.

A couple key distinctions: 1. It was for a banned substance, not a PED. The rules are different — for instance, had the suspension lapsed before the end of the season, he’d have been playoff-roster eligible. 2. Based on some stuff circling around out there, this was a very serendipitous test result. Pineda deserves another chance, and it might as well be from the team that gave him the last one.

I want Big Mike back. I don't care about the suspension. Those rules are obscure and archaic and outmoded. They are culturally bias'd and sporadically enforced. Outside of that, there is nothing wrong with getting suspended by MLB. Where have you gone, Barry Bonds, now that we need you?

I think Pineda was trying to lose weight. He had the knee surgery the year before which probably impacted him getting in shape last year. This year we could see a slimmer Pineda. This guy has upside, sign him.

So for half the season he was our best pitcher and would have been our #2 pitcher in the playoffs and you all think of him as the 5th starter if he resigns? Odorizzii is currently the headline of the offseason. If we sign Pineda I and rely on two of the young guys I think the young guys can exceed what Gibson and Perez gave us last year so I would not consider the offseason to be a fail but rather a C+.to B- since I was afraid we would lost them both. If we resign Pineda and we sign just one of those 2nd tier guys (Ryu 4th in Cy Young is 2nd tier?) I would be thrilled. If its Hamels or Wheeler I wouldn't even make a distinction between Berrios, Odo, Pineda and new guy in terms of spots in the rotation. If its Dobnak or Graterol I'm not sure you would even distinguish 1 from 5.

I like Big Mike and thought he was the best pitcher on staff heading into the playoffs. He would have been at worst the game 2 starter, preventing Dobnak from being tossed to the wolves in Yankee Stadium... If people are still mad about the timing of the suspension I've got no rebuttal to it... The timing couldn't have been worse for a playoff team. What are the Twins going to do when he's suspended the first 40 some games in 2020?

Everything about Donaldson screams "you're going to over-pay and be disappointed." Give me Moose and spend the savings on pitching.

I said back on November 15th I though the twins would be a surprise suitor for Moustakas and I still think that is on the table. More than anything it shows they are willing to move Sano to 1st and have a replacement at 3rd. Either Donaldson or Moustakas would be a big improvement in my mind. For the cheaper contract and just slightly less top performance but more dependability I would pick Moose over Donaldson, but that is just me.