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If you are going to have a hitter pitch. You can't be bringing it at 86.2. The hitters can time that. Bring in Grossman and let him do that 60 MPH thing he does. MLB Guys pop that stuff up.

I'm fully on board the "fire Molitor" bandwagon after watching that debacle. The Astudillo appearance was nothing less than an extended middle finger to the fans who remained to watch the ninth inning.

Yeah, so Duke has had FOUR (not 1, not 2, not 3, count them FOUR - 4) 20 plus pitch outings THIS WEEK. But he is the MOY.

I'm going to guess Levine will consider a larger sample size than last night's box score in making decisions. Feel free to do things your way though.

Seen some comments here on about Kirilloff's arm strength, so... I recently posted a question to MLB Pipeline Inbox about the long term defensive fit for the young Twins outfielders Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker. Here is what they responded with. Check it out...kind of interesting. https://www.mlb.com/news/inbox-minnesota-twins-outfield-prospects/c-284303436?tid=151437456

A few things worth mentioning regarding this... 1) Graterol is almost certainly done growing, so growth plates are not an issue. 2) Age does not appear to be related to the likelihood of UCL reconstruction in most studies that I am aware of. The UCL is certainly fully formed by this time, and doesn't change considerably in it's constitution after probably 12-13 years of age. 3) Fastball velocity does not appear to be related to likelihood of undergoing TJ 4) About 15% of minor league and 25% of major league pitchers have undergone TJ (so 'nearly every single case' is probably a bit of an overstatement). Here is a portion of an article abstract from the Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery in 2016 (Volume 25, Issue 4, April 2016, Pages 671-675 Keller et al.) Background The number of Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers requiring ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstructions is increasing. Recent literature has attempted to correlate specific stresses placed on the throwing arm to risk for UCL injury, with limited results. Methods Eighty-three MLB pitchers who underwent primary UCL reconstruction were evaluated. Pitching velocity and percent of pitch type thrown (fastball, curve ball, slider, and change-up) were evaluated 2 years before and after surgery. Data were compared with control pitchers matched for age, position, size, innings pitched, and experience. Results The evaluation of pitch velocity compared with matched controls found no differences in pre-UCL reconstruction pitch velocities for fastballs (91.5 vs. 91.2 miles per hour [mph], P = .69), curveballs (78.2 vs. 77.9 mph, P = .92), sliders (83.3 vs. 83.5 mph, P = .88), or change-ups (83.9 vs. 83.8 mph, P = .96). When the percentage of pitches thrown was evaluated, UCL reconstructed pitchers pitch significantly more fastballs than controls (46.7% vs. 39.4%, P = .035). This correlated to a 2% increase in risk for UCL injury for every 1% increase in fastballs thrown. Pitching more than 48% fastballs was a significant predictor of UCL injury, because pitchers over this threshold required reconstruction (P = .006). Conclusion MLB pitchers requiring UCL reconstruction do not pitch at higher velocities than matched controls, and pitch velocity does not appear to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction. However, MLB pitchers who pitch a high percentage of fastballs may be at increased risk for UCL injury because pitching a higher percent of fastballs appears to be a risk factor for UCL reconstruction. I recognize it is wordy, but basically it showed no directly correlation between fastball velocity and TJ surgery. It did, however, show a relationship between percentage of fastballs and TJ. Other studies have shown similar results, with some studies conflicting. As always, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

So I could just talk about Verlander as a #2 starter (after all, I judge pitchers on a Hall of Fame standard and he’s no Walter Johnson or Greg Maddux) and that would be valid? Also, what’s a championship team? The Yankees might win a Championship this year with a pretty ragged starting rotation because their lineup is so good. The Twins won championships with Scott Erickson and Les Straker as their #3s. Your system is bogus because it adds another variable in Championship that applies to teams, not starting rotations. For better or for worse, there’s a generally understood concept when we talk about a #1 vs a #2 vs. a #4. You can argue within that context but if you’re going to use a totally separate system, perhaps it’d be good to translate it to the accepted one? I don’t write our ERAs in Base 8 because “That’s the way I see numbers” because that would be confusing. I go with the common definition. I also have a hard time granting credence to your judgements of pitchers place in a Championship Rotation because you compared Gonsalves to Tyler Duffey. Those two are not at all alike.

Just want to set the record straight a little here, lest anyone take these highly subjective and questionable "scouting reports" as gospel. Kirilloff was coming back from an entire season lost to elbow surgery this spring. Plenty common for a guy to experience some initial hiccups in the wake of such an ordeal. Claiming he has a "Ben Revere arm" on the basis of such anecdotal evidence is ridiculous. His arm ain't great but drawing comparisons to one of the worst OF throwers in franchise history is an exaggeration deserving of dismissal. FWIW, BA rates Kirilloff's arm as a 50 on the 20-80 scale — basically average. Gonsalves' curveball is most definitely not his best pitch. I don't even know where you'd come up with that. His change is widely viewed as his best pitch and his curve is in fact generally considered the weak link in his repertoire. In a Strib profile on him this past spring it was noted that "some scouts believe (his curveball) might prevent him from being a true staff ace" and Gonsalves himself noted that "I’ve read a lot of bad stuff about my curveball. I know it needs work.”

And this is a pitcher who averaged just 10.2 pitchers per appearance last season that we're talking about. I've been impressed with how Duke has handled his usage this season -- the Cardinals really babied him and the Twins are basically letting it rip -- but everybody has a breaking point. This was too much to ask.

Yeah, they're prospects. They might not turn out. But they haven't done anything to dissuade us yet. Kiriloff seems likely to stick in the OF for at least the first part of his career. That may be LF over RF if his arm doesn't come back. Your spring training story is nice but he was just back from Tommy John, I don't give it much credence. Kyle Schwarber figured out a way to play OF and Kiriloff is a much better athlete. He’s also hitting like crazy every step of the way and bounced back from a major injury like nothing. And he’s 20. After missing a year. Don’t rain on this parade just to be negative. Gordon is only 22 in AAA. He will get stronger and more used to the demands of professional ball. The calls to bring him to MLB were premature (I said it at the time, not backtracking here) but he's got plenty of time. I've never heard anything to question his work ethic so I'm confident it won't be lack of strength that gets him. His struggles this year may just be the jump to AAA. Gonsalves is not Duffey, that’s your weird contention. He has much higher K rates and a better ERA every step of the way up the ladder. He also isn’t a two pitch pitcher like Duffey. No one is trying to teach him a third pitch . . . because he has four (fastball, changeup, slider, curve). Not sure why you think that a curve is his best pitch. Everything I read said his change is his best pitch, followed by his fastball and an “improving curve”. Finally, the prospect rankers agree. Tyler Duffey never sniffed top 100 lists (or was close) during his minor league career and Gonslaves has been on the back end of that list for the past two years. You can’t just make comparisons willy-nilly, they need to make sense. Again, like with Gordon, Gonsalves is 23 in AAA after dominating all of the lower minors. He’s had some adjustments this year to AAA and likely will when he makes the majors. But that K rate has remained strong in AAA and the walk rate is something that is abnormal. I don’t think he’s lost his command. Is he an ace? No. But his ceiling is not 5th starter, that makes me think you don’t understand what a ceiling is. His ceiling is likely a good #3. That’s not bad for a top 5 prospect in AAA.

Wow, it only took Duke 20 pitches and Belisle 26 pitches. But Willians 35. Someday the guy will catch. And, of course, the team somehow at Adrianza at first base. Go figure.

I don't suppose any of the crack reports asked why McGill is on the roster, and not being used....say, ever, or in a blow out? I am baffled by this....

Romero starting tomorrow is the best news of the day. By the way, who took the “over” on runs scored in the Berrios-Archer matchup?

I’ll never understand why we signed Belisle. I mean what’s the point of having pitching depth when you don’t use it. This “veteran presence” dependency & the shuttling of major league ready relievers back and forth from Rochester has to stop. Our player development already sucks, and this isn’t making it any better.

Trade Rodney and Belisle is your closer. Because, you can't lose enough games to get the draft pick you need for the future.

Don't you think that the Eddie's, especially Rosario, stepped up this season?

And then we have to remember that Les Straker was the #3 starter on the 1987 World Series championship team... Bet he didn't rank real high in prospect rankings (if they had been a big deal back then). And yes, things have changed over the last 30 years, but the concept is the same... The key is to get them to the big leagues, not worry too much about if a guy is a 3 or a 4 or a 5 starter. Get them there and hope they become the next Corey Kluber, or Jose Berrios... and then remember that sometimes it takes awhile to peak, like Carlos Carrasco or maybe Kyle Gibson.

This doesn’t make sense. When one of your best offensive players slumps, your offense will struggle. When that player does well, your offense will improve. You’re blaming Dozier for the bad but giving him no credit for the good. Which is particularly weird because you keep bringing up Polanco, who has not been very good in a SSS and much worse than Dozier over the same stretch of time (much MUCH worse).

I love reading your posts... I learned something today. Thanks... I always thought the breaking pitches led to more TJS... bit surprised that it appears to be the other way around.

I'm really enjoying my free MLB.tv subscription so far. For every player we lament the Twins letting get away or never developed, there are real success stories, like Cave (so far) and Hildenberger. The damn Yankees haunt the Twins again, though, with losing to Cleveland.

Looks like another good day for the prospects. Rooker and Jeffers keep hitting, and Gonsalves is trending the right direction. I'd like to see Gonsalves get some starts near the end of the year to prepare him for the 2019 season where I can see him trying to crack the rotation.

I'd love to have Realmuto but I can't rationalize the price that needs to be paid to acquire him. You could acquire a lot more bat at other positions for the same price. More bat that doesn't come with the standard required catcher rest and typical catcher dings that seem to send catchers to the DL more often than other positions. I have no idea (how could I) but I think it's a fair assumption that it would take more to acquire Realmuto than it would for Eugenio Suarez. If that's the case you might as well go get Suarez instead because he will produce more at the plate and play more often. Maybe the Pirates will give up Marte for the price you would pay for Realmuto. Many seem to be willing to declare Sano as the starting 3B in 2019 and therefore don't see a need for Suarez. Many are ready to declare Buxton as the everyday guy in CF come 2019 and therefore don't see the need for a Marte. I will never understand that logic when you look at the Sano and Buxton puddles lying in the middle of the 2018 street. How can any GM or fan for that matter look at Sano and Buxton and say to themselves... We are covered at 3B and CF? Why wouldn't you pickup a Marte to join Rosario, Kepler and Buxton if you could? Let Buxton earn his playing time. If he can't beat those 3 for playing time than he isn't what we need him to be in 2019. If all 4 kick ass... Great problem to have. Why wouldn't you pickup a Suarez to play 3B if you could? Let Sano earn playing time by... you know... performing. Sano could start on the opening day roster as a 1B/3B/DH. If Sano is earning everyday playing time... he could play some 1B or DH. If Mauer comes back... Sano could slow Mauer's playing time by... out performing him or DH if Mauer is performing... again... good problem to have. If Mauer doesn't come back... pick up Matt Adams for 1B to compete with Sano and Suarez. Play Adams in the OF on occasion if you like the matchups or all 3 are hot and you want to DH someone else. We were 5 hitters short this year from a decent starting 9 players. I don't understand how anyone van put together a potential 2019 lineup with Sano, Buxton and Kepler etched in stone and feel comfortable that we have 3 positions covered adequately for 162 games next year. I'm saying this and I believe in all 3 of those guys. So that leads to the question? But... who will play Catcher... We will have Castro and we will have whoever they sign in Free Agency. If you are giving up Lewis or Romero plus Nick Gordon plus that Brudar kid plus Kiriloff or whatever you are willing to pay for Realmuto... Spend it on someone who will dent the scoreboard more often... GO BIG and don't let the presence of Sano or Buxton stop you. About the only way I'd be comfortable trading for Realmuto was if the Twins could get Starlin Castro as a throw in or even lower the prospect price for taking on that contract. I doubt that would work but at least that way you improve a couple of areas instead of a cannonball through the farm system for a Catcher improvement alone.

Also worth noting that they slotted Graterol just one spot behind Hunter Greene...

Yes typo on my end. Vargas was 22 in A, Midwest league, not A+ Florida State League. Kiriloff is now 20, in A+ If you don't have issues with his bat, why the asinine comparison to Vargas and his season in A ball?

Vargas was in A+ from late July - end of season 2012, he was 22 nearly his whole time there. Kiriloff started at A+ as a 20.5 year old. That's a year and a half age difference, not as insignificant as you are trying to make it seem. Kiriloff also missed the entire 2017 season, making the numbers is he putting up all the more impressive.

Very early but the Twins have thus far made the best pick of that draft. Hunter Greene has struggled so far, Gore/Wright/McKay have had mixed success on the mound as all are sitting with ERAs in the 4.00s this year (that's not so big for Gore/Greene as high school pitchers and Wright is in AA but you'd still like to see more dominance). McKay and Greene have both been unspectacular at the plate as well. It's obviously hard to hit and pitch but McKay should have been tearing up A ball but has been strikeout prone. Blayne Enlow has been holding his own - if he develops that Lewis pick under slot could be pretty ridiculous.

Matheny was fired after 2-8 loss to the Reds. Molitor is still employed after 6-19 loss to the Rays. Different standard indeed.

Oh this happened.....the FO signed Belisile and Molitor continues to use him.... So....uh....not only did this happen, it is going to happen again and again before the season is through.

Is Astudillo Big Sexy 2.0?

So how much more leash does Belisle get? I'm ok with a few more appearances but he appears to be done.

Yeah, I may have been watching Kirilloff this spring and I did see a couple of throws that, well, the release point wasn't good, so it took some bounces and rolled a bit. I'm sure he was still adjusting to throwing in game situations... Because watching on milb.tv, I've seen him make some very strong throws and talking to others who have seen him more regularly say that he's got a very strong arm. I don't think he's going to be a great outfielder defensively. He's not as fast as Kepler, to be sure. But he's far from slow. If anyone has seen him run out a triple, he can really run. I'd almost compare it to Michael Cuddyer as a young player. He wasn't a sprinter, but once he got going, he could move.

Thanks for updating the prospect summary list! Any thought on making that it’s own article, and doing one, all 1-40, say, twice or once a month? Doesn’t have to be a huge write up, just what you do here, but with their current line, maybe their last performance or where they were the previous month and one or two sentence blurb on their last month of play or a highlight or something?

The Twins aren’t dead yet, but they’ve given themselves very little room for error. They can’t afford to do things like, for example, blow seven-run leads. Well, it’s a good thing they didn’t do exactly that Friday, but things were pretty hairy there for a second.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs) Jake Odorizzi: 27 Game Score, 4.1 IP, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 58.4% strikes Bullpen: 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB Lineup: 6-for-13 w/RISP, 7 LOB WPA of 0.1 or higher: Grossman .125, Cave .124, Mauer .100 WPA of -0.1 or lower: None Download attachment: WinEx713.png Things got off to such a wonderful start. The Twins scored four runs on six hits in the first inning. They added four more runs in the third, with the big blow coming in the form of a Joe Mauer three-run homer. You build an 8-1 lead in the third and it should be easy sailing from there, right? The Rays did not go down quietly. Not. Even. Close. They added a run in the fourth before putting together a four-run inning of their own in the fifth. Another run in the sixth brought them back within a run. The Twins’ lineup just kept on rolling, however, as Brian Dozier hit a leadoff double, was driven in on an Eduardo Escobar single and then Esky scored on a Robbie Grossman double to give Minnesota a three-run cushion. Then, Trevor Hildenberger delivered what the Twins really needed: A clean inning. After Tampa Bay had scored in four consecutive frames, Hildy came in and struck out the side. Obviously this was a night where the offense shined, but Trevor coming in and slamming the door like that really seemed to represent the stomping out of any comeback the Rays were going to mount. Zach Duke followed with a clean eighth. These last three games have reminded me a lot of the 2017 second half Twins. Tons of crooked numbers coming from the bats. They’re not stringing together single runs in innings or just scoring on homers, they’re stringing things together and delivering with runners on. There were a ton of contributors, as you’d expect from a game in which 11 runs are scored on 15 hits, but Jake Cave was particularly impressive. He hit an RBI single over the shortstop in the first, a double to the left-center gap that plated another run in the third and then led off the seventh with a triple he pulled into the right-center gap. He’s now hitting .324 with a .928 OPS. Mauer drove in four and Grossman reached base safely four times, going 3-for-3 with a walk. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen713.png AL Central Standings CLE 51-42 MIN 43-49 (-7.5) DET 40-56 (-12.5) CHW 31-61 (-19.5) KC 26-66 (-24.5) Next Three Games Sat vs. TB, 1:10 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Chris Archer Sun vs. TB, 1:10 pm CT: TBD All-Star Break Fri, July 20 at KC Last Three Games MIN 5, TB 1: Who’s the Snub? MIN 8, KC 5: Twins Recover from Rough Start KC 9, MIN 4: Slegers Slayed by Royals Click here to view the article

I hope Romero. He should be available.

I like the additional #21, but since Larnach is not playing yet you can add #22 too. Rooker is good news, maybe he can audition in Logan Morrison's spot in the lineup.

Completely aside from the topic discussed here, but I wonder if any MLB team's analytics department has ever added an MD with top notch analytical skills and a medical-generalist's mindset, to investigate any number of topics that would pay huge dividends if something was discovered - for instance along the lines of physiological cues that would guide drafting for talent development or for injury avoidance - I don't mean just sifting data on players, but locating studies that tell a team what new data to try to collect, things a non-medical layman might not know how to look for in the literature.

That's for sure. I have asked a few times to those of you who have said we MIGHT waste 2019 ... what's the rest of the plan. Are you really suggesting a move this costly be done without determining the viability of the other moves required. 2019 will be a waste with or without Realmuto without at least one more top of the rotation starter. I would assume the supporters know this. I assume they also know we have a sum total of one BP guy. It's also understood we need to replace Dozier who was arguably most valuable player on the team the past couple of years. As you have pointed out, we have a hole to fill at 1B and the FA mark is very weak. Would that not require a trade to fill as well? Escobar will be gone as well. Maybe it's just me but I have not seen anyone else address what we need to do to insure the cost associated with acquiring Realmuto is not a complete waste. I have also seen anyone address why now is better than the off-season other than this particular asset might not be available. So, we are not just talking about a considerable package for Realmuto. We would need to pony up big time for a SP given there are none available this winter in FA. We could get a 3B and move Sano to first so that is possible through FA. At a minimum, saving 2019 would require two monster packages which would take several of our top prospects. All of this to build a contender around two guys that have regressed to the point of being sent back to the minors. The only cost of waiting the rest of the year and being in a considerably better position to make such a decision is this particular asset probably won't be available. The cost, if all of these things don't come together is likely several more years of sucking. The benefit is elevating our chances of contention for the 19-20 seasons. The only way this makes any sense at all is if Buxton and Sano are playing at an elite level out of the gate in 2019. That's a long-shot as is putting together all of the rest of the pieces by the start of 2019 Given the cost of this plan (trading key prospects) and the relative lack of cost to take the rest of the year to evaluate Buxton / Sano as well as SP and BP prospects it would be flat out incompetent to trade for Realmuto or any similar asset today.

This article has been updated with a quick note that Royce Lewis has been informed he's heading up to Ft. Myers.

Not going to quibble with the Hitter of the Day--pretty tough choice. Rooker did have a heck of a day at the plate and on the base paths, though.

Seriously. We're talking about Dozier signing a $5m per year contract for three seasons. Let's bring this back to the original statement and consider the absurdity of it. If we want to talk whether he'll get $8m per for two seasons, I guess that's a conversation we can have but it's likely still wrong. Even in a depressed market, Dozier is a $10-12m player easily because seriously, he's a five win player. GMs are not stupid. One will find a way to fit a player like Brian Dozier into their lineup for $8m a year. At least one will also do it for $10m a year. Even if Dozier ends this season with a .750 OPS, I'd toss him $12m on a make good season because why the **** not? People simultaneously accuse GMs of being idiots and brilliant. Taking on Dozier for $12m in a season (literally 80%+ of the three season total originally posted) is a no-brainer because you're paying less than 10% of your payroll for a potential 4-6 win player. That's a risk you take every day.

What am I missing here? Did you not write they have very few holes but catcher? Have you not said they are wasting Buxton + Sano if they don't fix catcher? Did the other poster you defended in your last comment to me not call 2019 a waste without getting Realmuto? You said the option is that, or sign Ramos or Grandal? How about teams like the A's, Diamondbacks, Nats, Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, and Brewers all competing this season with catchers who have wRC+ below 80? How have they done it?

This exactly. Mauer isn’t going to HELP the Twins win in 2019 or thereafter. Indeed, it would be pretty safe to bet that his pressence on the roster would be a hinderence to winning. He knows he simply isn’t capable of playing even 130 games anymore. And I am sure he is well aware of the level of productivity he provides when he IS on the field. Quite frankly, if he chooses to hold “legacy” or whatever over the Twins heads I think that would be pretty selfish. What possible reason does he have to keep playing? Put it one more way: How will fans look at Joe Mauer 10-20 years from now if this core gets oh so close, but maybe one big bat in the middle would have put them over the top. But, the Twins couldn’t get that bat onto the team because he was blocked by Joe Mauer. The Twins wasted the prime years of Mauer, Morneau and Santana by not putting enough around them. Will fans really accept this team making that same mistake again?

When his bat is on, you're right, Dozier is the better player. He's had way too many good half seasons with putrid results during the other half. Escobar has been more consistent and can play decent defense everywhere. If Dozier had played 2018 like he did 2017, we'd have a lot more wins and we'd be clamoring to QO him. Those Ruthian half seasons of baseball will come to an end at some point. I'm much more comfortable with the consistent guy on a 3 year deal than the one who goes from hot to cold and has no in between.

Should Gordon play if Adrianza and Polanco are playing well? Is it possible that the pairing that gives the Twins the best overall play next year is Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B? Adrianza didn’t come to the Twins with the Baseball America or Fangraphs prospect stamp of approval but he might have a window in his prime where he is a contributing starter on a good team.

I agree with the excitement on Graterol. Two points from the video that make me even more excited: the power is not due to over-throwing (or slinging like the aforementioned Liriano), as Seth points out and, it looks like he still gets plenty of arm-side movement on the pitch... it definitely wasn't straight!

I take it back. I wouldn’t trade Kiriloff and Brusdar for Realmuto.

I have this recurring bad dream that they keep BD and move Esco. That would make me sad.

We had Kirilloff in the Top 5 last year, and that turned out to be a pretty good decision. So, we're all completely comfortable with where we've ranked Wander Javier.

I was going to write this, so thank you. One correction, I believe, is that a player gets something like a minimum ten days credit each time he is recalled. The PA rightfully wanted to make sure clubs didn't abuse their ability to shuttle players.

What's the value of that? Would he really get to the big leagues sooner? Are we certain that he'd jump into the Florida State and succeed? While he may be similar to Rooker, he's a year younger and probably isn't quite as advanced offensively as Rooker was a year ago. And, frankly, what's wrong with letting him get his feet wet in E-Town for a couple of weeks with little pressure. Let him adjust to playing every day, or using the wood bat? Or letting him meet other 2018 draft picks in E-Town, after meeting those in the GCL, and then letting him move up to Cedar Rapids and see how that goes. Let him meet those players and those coaches too. He's probably going to start 2019 in Ft. Myers regardless of where he ends this year.