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I don't get Diaz being a lock at all. Sure, he hit a lot of doubles last year, but no team is going to carry a 1B who hit 12 homers in low-a. And it's not like he hit .330 there either. I say there's about a 1% chance he gets added.

I would swap Thorpe and Diaz personally. Thorpe is a given. He will get taken if he's exposed. Diaz may not be taken, given that his highest level is A ball and he holds no defensive position.

I think Burdi is a must-add. He can go on the 60 day disabled list and not take a roster slot if needed. That essentially allows the Twins to protect him with a 41st roster slot. I would protect Gonsalves, Littell, Reed, Burdi and Thorpe. I really doubt Lewin Diaz would stick on a roster. He doesn't play defense well and teams can't afford to carry a rookie DH who only hit 12 HR in low A ball last season. The Twins probably will cut Kennys Vargas and Vargas is much, much more likely to contribute to a big league team. If someone wants Eades or Bard the Twins should trade them to that organization before the draft.

Thorpe is a lock to me.

We have control over a lot of pitchers through 2023 that don’t necessarily build for the future. Love a guy like Chargois but I wouldn’t trade a player like Dozier to get him and then claim somehow we’re setting ourselves up for the future

I think the point is that there's no use in controlling a player for several years if he can't stay on the field. Will JDL overcome his injury problems? Maybe, but I wouldn't give up a player of Dozier's caliber to find out.

Getting May back as a viable starter mid-season is just like making a trade. /snark

What are Falvey and Levine going to bulk up spend by 24 to 44 million (96 mil up to 120 to 140 mil) on, if not an impact starter? Starting rotation still has woefully little depth or ceiling. Yes they need an impact reliever too, but it seems possible they already have them in the minor league system.

I highly doubt any team is going to view Diaz as a middle infield candidate. How many teams even carry a bench player who is strictly confined to playing 1B anymore? Let alone a guy who certainly can't hit MLB pitching. No one cares about first base anymore. You can get a half dozen guys who can post a .750 OPS for a couple million bucks each year in free agency. It has become an afterthought of a position; these days the Rule V is mostly made up of pitchers with a handful of defensive minded middle infielders and toolsy outfielders.

Trading Dozier for JDL straight up would not have been building beyond 2017.

I'm guessing myth 3 was a bit tongue in cheek... but myth 2??? they don't need SP???? They have way too many question marks there. Yes, all those guys could pan out. They could also refute myth 1 and 2 in the same stroke... and then DFA or trade the guy they got to protect against 2 if by some chance you happen to be right. They need 5 starters... the likelihood of walking out of ST with 5 sure things next March is very VERY VERY low.

Stewart or Jorge? Diaz or Palka? Burdi or R. Rosario? I’d probably go with the first in all three sets. Palka would be the one I’d miss the most, so I’d try to trade him now.

This non-trade wasn’t about risk aversion. It was about it being too one-sided making it a bad deal and good they didn’t do it

I would NOT protect Lewin Diaz. If someone really wants him at this age/ability, he will most likely fail. The four on the bubble are really hard to figure out. I would keep Thorpe for sure. He's a given to me. After that, Stewart is likely a future BP arm. I guess it depends if they think he'll be a stud or not as a BP arm. Bard has solid stuff and his stats are trending the right direction. I would try and keep him. Burdi will definitely get taken by another team but he seems so injury prone. I hate to lose him. How many spots are there likely going to be?

I'd kind of hate to lose Bard, I started to really like his numbers last year. But frankly, there doesn't look to be a big need for consternation this year. For a team that made the playoffs there looks to be a whole lot of players on the 40-man who should be removed regardless of the Rule V needs.

Not during the off-season, though. Which is where the dilemma comes in, for a few of these guys, as they take up a spot that could be used to protect someone else in December.

Have a question about Diaz, Seth. Does he have to be added this year? MiLB shows him as signing with the Twins on November 21, 2013...two days after his 17th birthday. The rule of thumb I use is that players under 18 have 5 years before they are Rule 5 eligible. For him, that would be 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Per you rule 1 above, you say signed in 2013 (during the minor league season). If MiLB has his signing date correct, he was not signed until after the season...kind of like the Sano situation a few years ago. Have you checked with the Twins on him? If he isn't eligible, that could also give you room to move the player I would hate to lose the most, Lewis Thorpe, into your 'lock' category.

I bet LA wish they paid a bit more for Dozier right about now.

I just think this is a myopic view. Teams don't get better by making bad trades. They just don't. Yes, it made sense in theory to trade Dozier. However, from all available accounts, the actual return would not have justified the move. I'm not saying this with the benefit of hindisght (which is a benefit re JDL), because it's what I thought last winter when they decided to keep him. Personally, I don't think trading players is the same as selling an old van--you don't set a price expecting to settle for the best offer that comes your way. Indeed, we can actually say the Twins were the ones who set the market price, but the Dodgers weren't willing to pay it.

Keep in mind, MLB is short of good pitchers. Look at the teams right behind us in the Wild Card race. A lot of them would have liked to have Kyle Gibson. If you made a list of all starters last year in the majors (218 pitched at least 30 innings), Gibson is probably in the 90-100 range (I looked at fWAR and it has him at 108 by WAR and 87 by xFIP (above Berrios). Obviously, having 5 pitchers better than that would be ideal but it's not realistic.

At the trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins added several pitching prospects. In early August, I took a preliminary look at the players that will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if the Twins choose not to protect them. Now that the season is over and moves will start to be made, I thought it would be good to revisit that topic. Today I present my updated list of the players needing protecting. The Twins Daily Offseason Handbook will be available moments after the final out of Game 7 of the World Series is recorded. Tomorrow, I will be posting my Twins offseason blueprint, and 40-man roster decisions will be a part of that. So be sure to check that out.As a reminder, there really are three criteria for who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. Here is this year’s criteria: Players who signed when they were 18 or younger in 2013 (during the minor league season).Players who signed when they were 19 or older in 2014.Players who were eligible in previous seasons are also eligible again.As an aside to this conversation, there are also three players in the Twins minor league system who will become free agents at the conclusion of the World Series. They are Levi Michael, Dereck Rodriguez and David Hurlbut. The Twins have their rights right up until the end of the World Series. In other words, they could add those players to the 40-man roster until then, or wait until after the Winter Meetings to add them on minor league deals. But going back to the players needing to be added or risk being lost to the Rule 5 draft, I’ll break them into categories. The Givens are players that I think have to be added or there is a high percentage that they will be selected. The next are players that are more On The Bubble. It will be interesting to see which of these guys are added. How many spots are available on the team’s 40-man roster, etc. The Next category are those players who probably won’t be added and yet do have a chance to be selected by the right team with the right need or the right report. The Givens In early August, I had five names in this category. Since then, John Curtiss was added to the 40-man roster when he was recalled to the Twins late in the month. Stephen Gonsalves - The left-hander is the most obvious choice to add. He’s put up the numbers at each and every level. He has the make-up , and he has the pitches. He’s also ready, or very nearly ready, to pitch in the big leagues.Zack Littell - Littell’s prospect profile skyrocketed in 2017, both in his time in the Yankees organization and as he ended the season in the Chattanooga Lookouts rotation. He went 20-1 this season between three teams. He profiles as a potential mid-rotation starter.Jake Reed - After flying up the system in 2014, Reed has fought some control issues and a couple of injuries. He’s split the 2016 and 2017 seasons between AA and AAA. He’s got a fastball that moves like crazy and a slider that is sharp as well.Lewin Diaz - I had him as a Given before. I still think that he should be a given. With his size, power-potential, all-around hitting skill and maybe his ability at first base, he has a chance to be a really, really good player. He’s the kind of guy that you don’t want to risk losing. However, an argument could be made that he wouldn’t stick on a big league roster. He’ll turn 21 in November and hasn’t played above A ball. (But then again, players with this kind of upside, even if they’ve only played in Low A ball, get protected, so as I typed this I moved him back to the Given category.)On The Bubble Again, this group is the players on the bubble. A couple of these players could be added, depending upon how many open spots they create and want to keep open. Since early August, Aaron Slegers and Gabriel Moya were called up. Both of them will likely remain on the 40-man roster this offseason. Lewis Thorpe - Thorpe has good stuff. He came back to pitch after missing over two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and a bout with mono. He had regained his low-90s (91-94) fastball and showed good secondary pitches. Other reports (maybe for medical reasons) are really the only thing that keep him from being a Given in my mind.Kohl Stewart - Stewart fought a knee injury that cost him quite a bit of time during the 2017 season. He has a powerful arm, and some really good stuff. He hasn’t been a big strikeout guy, but overall, he’s avoided hard contact and prevented runs. While he is on the bubble, his upside and potential make him a likely add, though the number of open spots will be a factor.Nick Burdi - When he was drafted in 2014, the idea of the team needing to make a 40-man roster decision on him three-and-a-half years later seemed silly. He and his triple-digit fastball were supposed to move quickly to the big leagues. It didn’t happen. He’s had bouts with control, and he’s had a couple of injuries. He was pitching great to start the 2017 season, but then we learned he had had Tommy John surgery. He won’t pitch until at least mid-season.With health, he’s a given to be added. But, would a team consider drafting him, knowing he’s had Tommy John surgery and the success rate of return? They could put him on their DL for as much of the season as needed, and then hide him the rest of the year. They’d likely have to keep him up part of the 2019 season as well.Luke Bard - Bard has been healthy for two straight seasons, and he’s pitched well. He does occasionally fight control issues, but he has missed a lot of bats. In 52.1 innings at Chattanooga, he walked 20 and struck out 78 (13.4 K/9). In his 13 innings in Rochester, he walked four and struck out 21 batters (14.5 K/9). Bard was the Twins third pick in the 2012 draft after Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios.The Next This is a group that has a few intriguing names. While they aren’t obvious choices, there could be a team that likes them enough to take a shot with a Rule 5 pick. Ryan Eades - The Twins second-round pick in 2013 out of LSU, Eades will turn 26 in mid-December. He was eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft last year and didn’t get taken, but he’s a season further along in his development and MLB readiness. He spent most of the season at AA Chattanooga, but in eight innings at Rochester, he gave up just one run. He’s got a good fastball, and he has all of the pitches. He’s just not been able to be consistent during his career. He is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League in front of scouts from all 30 MLB teams.Brian Navarreto - Navaretto was the Twins sixth-round pick in 2013 out of high school. While he hasn’t hit much during his pro career, most who have seen him behind the plate agree that he is an elite defensive catcher, blessed with a canon for an arm. In Royals terms, he looks (but doesn’t hit) like Salvador Perez, but defensively he’s there with Drew Butera.But if there is a team that values defense from catchers (like the Reds did with Stuart Turner a year ago), then the 22-year-old Navarreto could be selected.Mason Melotakis - The Twins were able to get Melotakis through waivers during the 2017 season. When he came back from Tommy John surgery, there were reports of him reaching into the upper-90s. In 2017, there were reports that he was barely hitting 90. But, he’s left-handed, and he’s another year post-Tommy John surgery. He also showed good success in Triple-A, so a team needing left-handed pitching might consider him ready enough to throw into their bullpen as a second or third left-hander.The Rest Here is a list of other players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in the Twins organization. Since August, the Twins have released Amaurys Minier and Roni Tapia. Jhon AlvarezDJ BaxendaleCameron BooserSam ClayEdgar CorcinoAndro CuturaEduardo Del RosarioTanner EnglishEdgar HerreraZack JonesRandy LeBlancJose MartinezNelson MolinaRobert MolinaAriel MontesinoEmmanuel MorelAlex MurenMax MurphyCallan PearceJohan QuezadaWilliams RamirezRainis SilvaKeaton SteeleTodd Van SteenselMichael TheofanopoulosRyan WalkerTJ WhiteNow, the number of players added to the 40-man roster will in large part depend upon how many players the front office is willing to remove from the 40-man roster over the next couple of weeks. I’ve got mine ranked in order of how I would choose to add them. In the comments below, discuss my ranking and rank them by how you would protect them. Click here to view the article

MYTH #1: The Twins will significantly increase payroll. I think you default to the "won't" until proven otherwise. MYTH #2: The Twins need to add an impact starting pitcher. I think nearly every team would like to add an impact starter. MYTH #3: Buxton's speed is real not "mythical".

I'm really excited to see what Benninghoff can do. He's one of those guys you gamble with after the 10th round if you've got the pool money to do it. He got mid-third round money, so there's got to be some real projection there.

I'm taking this home with me to read tonight...cover to cover. Thanks to all who contributed. I don't know how I would get through these cold 30 to 70 degree winters here in North Carolina without something to read while I drink my sweet iced tea and munch on country ham, grits with red-eye gravy, cooked apples and fluffy hot biscuits with blackberry jam. And as Phil Harris used to sing on the radio in the 1940's..."That's what I like about the South". Happy fall, ya'll.

That is a good point. It's also important to note that guys added to the 40 man roster this month have to stay on the 40-man roster until at least spring training. So, they'll need to keep enough guys that can be DFAd when they add free agents, etc.

Particularly considering how affordable veteran corner bats are these days.

I don't agree. They need at least one RP... if not two. May, I might add, should start. You cannot count on this many young guys to step forward. I'd be fine with Hildy, Busenitz, and Duffey in the pen. I think it would be smart to slot in Chargois and reserve a spot for one of the other kids, but I'd want at least one more mainstay (if not two) so that Molitor doesn't rely too much on one guy. I'd rather not see Kintzler, Belisle, or Boshers in Twins uniforms in 2018.

Nope. Any player on the 40-man roster can be placed on the 60-day DL to open a spot on that roster. He does not have to be on the 25-man (active) roster. As far as MiLB goes, there is only a 7-day DL and people just go there for as many days (or seasons) they need.

I would agree with the 3 of the 4 locks, but Jake Reed is the worst of the 3 relievers that need to be protected. If I were to protect a reliever, it would be Burdi Numbers: Jake Reed (AAA): 30-2/3 IP, 3.40 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 3.4% HR/FB, 84.3% LOB, 1.14 WHIP/.281 BABIP, 20.7 K%, 11.6 K-BB% Nick Burdi (AA): 17 IP, 2.23 FIP, 2.22 xFIP, 7.7 HR/FB, 100% LOB, 0.76 WHIP/.222 BABIP, 32.8 K%, 26.2 K-BB% Luke Bard (AA): 52-1/3 IP, 2.56 FIP, 2.50 xFIP, 8 HR/FB, 85% LOB, 1.34 WHIP/.380 BABIP, 34.2 K%, 29.8 K-BB% For comparison purposes: John Curtiss (AAA) 24-1/3 IP, 1.86 FIP, 2.92 xFIP, 0% HR/FB, 76.2 LOB%, 0.86 WHIP/.212 BABIP, 34.7 K%, 24.2 K-BB% Trevor Hildenberger (AAA) 30-2/3 IP, 2.36 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, 4.3 HR/FB, 83.8% LOB, 1.14 WHIP/.321 BABIP, 27.8 K%, 21.4 K-BB% Alan Busenitz (AAA) 35-1/3 IP, 2.15 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 0% HR/FB, 77.4% LOB, 0.82 WHIP/ .235 BABIP, 29.6 K%, 22 K-BB% I think that the Twins, for once, will have to trade players who cannot protect before they go away. I'd rather see what Thorpe, Stewart, Reed, and Bard would bring on the trade market, before I let them go. Would a rebuilding that is going under severe cost cutting be willing to make a deal around some of them?

I'm pretty sure everyone is off the 60 day come rule 5 draft. They can be re-instated in the spring. Though in Burdi's case, doing so would also require that he accumulate ML service time and pay check. I'm sure he'd be fine with that, but there are good reasons why the org would not. He's going to start pitching again in July... It will take most of the season for him to return to form. If there are open spots on the 40 man, I'd have no problems burning one on Burdi. I just don't want to see him stolen either because a team simply tossed him on their 60 day DL

Agree on all counts except I would also protect Stewart. Some team would probably take a chance on a guy like Stewart. Its easier to stash/hide a pitcher on a 25 man roster than a position player, especially hitters who don't play a premium position.

Santana and Berrios are the only locks for next year. I do understand the age factor but I also think there is a coaching aspect to Santana that is being overlooked. May should not in any way factor into the signing of a starter this offseason, nor should Mejia or Gibby. We absolutely need someone of the caliber of Santana/Berrios to make a top 3. Let the rest of the contenders play out and go from there. With a top 3 of Santana, Berrios and FA or trade then see where we are at come deadline time and pick up a guy like the Astros did this year if needed.

Just a mod note: As it applies to Gibson, and in this case it was a response to a comparison, please don’t take the Buxton tangent further, as this is a discussion about May, and how he may or may not affect the starting rotation next year. Thanks.

I am so hopeful that, via trades and DFA, the 40-man will be cleansed of the current clutter, my wish would be to protect all the guys listed on the bubble. Trading some of the bubble candidates, if you can identify more than one team that might be inclined to draft them, would be another choice, but probably hard. If you change your mind and really really want another Buddy Bo after the rule-5 dust settles, you can always go get one, the way we got Buddy. 28-year old Chase Huchingson had a nice year for York in the Atlantic League, for instance...

Burdi will be an easy one to poach if someone wants to. He gets selected and put on the 60 day DL. I know there's a gentlemen's agreement here on that, and hope no one wants to violate it, as in my opinion, that shouldn't be allowed.

I was told to go see if the other team wanted a new player.

Baseball’s season is quickly coming to an end. One of the off-season highlights for many fans is reevaluating an organization’s prospects. Players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Jose Berrios populated Minnesota’s prospect lists over the last handful of seasons. Now these players have been making an impact at the big league level. Which prospect will come out on top in this year’s prospect rankings? Here are the candidates…Seth, Tom, Jeremy, and I are jumping into work on the 10th Anniversary Edition of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. In the weeks ahead, look for more stories about the team’s top prospects as we dive into researching the next crop to come off of the farm. Nick Gordon, SS One knock on Gordon after his 2016 season was his lack of power. He made a switch this year as his OPS increased by 28 points but his batting average dropped by 21 points. For the season, he hit .270/.341/.408 with 46 extra-base hits and 13 steals in 519 at-bats. Gordon was three years younger than the competition in the Southern League. The majority of his playing time has continued to be at shortstop but he might end up at second base in the big leagues. Some will rank Royce Lewis ahead of Gordon but it’s tough to do that when Gordon has been performing well at Double-A. Royce Lewis, SS Minnesota’s number one pick this past June made his mark quickly in his professional debut. He hit .279/.381/.407 with 18 steals in over 200 at-bats. He finished the year with Cedar Rapids in the Midwest League where he was over three years younger than the competition. There is still an opportunity for him to add more power as he grows into his body and that has to be a scary proposition for pitchers in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues. Many believe he will be able to stay at shortstop. Out of the hitters on this list, he has the highest ceiling. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP Gonsalves has dominated Double-A over the last two seasons. In 161.2 innings (28 starts), he has posted a 2.51 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 185 to 60 strikeout to walk ratio. His time at Triple-A wasn’t as clean but he was limited to five appearances (four starts) at season’s end. Gonsalves did not make a start after August 25 and his final appearance came on August 30th. He missed time at the beginning of the season with a shoulder issue. There was no structural damage and he went on to pitch well. There was talk of him making a spot start at the big league level but that never happened. He will head back to Triple-A to prove he can dominate that level like he has in Double-A. Wild Cards: Brent Rooker, Fernando Romero Rooker dominated at the plate during his professional debut. Coming from the college ranks, Rooker started in Elizabethton to get acquainted with a wood bat and to start playing in the outfield. After less than 100 plate appearances, he moved to Fort Myers and continued to hit. For the season, he batted .281/.364/.566 with 18 home runs and 11 doubles. He’s still adjusting to the outfield so that will be a focus for him in 2018. Romero was a legitimate candidate to be the Twins top prospect one year ago. There were flashes of greatness with Chattanooga but the consistency wasn’t always there. In 125 innings, he posted a 3.53 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and 120 strikeouts compared to 45 walks. Like Gonsalves, he missed time with a shoulder issue which is never a good thing for a power pitcher. All things considered, he might still have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Twins organization. Who would you consider the Twins top prospect? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article

I think you have to protect Lewis for sure. LH pitching is too rare. San Diego, for instance, would gobble him up and put him in their pen for the year without hesitation, I would think. Stewart deserves another year so protect him, too. Burdi is recovering from TJ surgery so no one will nab him.

I will definitely trade Polanco (in a package) if that is what is needed to land a very good starter. I would rather trade Gordon because I think his value is higher and I think he is farther away than some think. He is a very good prospect but I think he is also overrated (especially on this board). But the Twins definitely have a surplus of MI's and that is a shocking development after years of playing complete mediocrity in the MI.

He started throwing today, he’ll be back at some point. Also, yuck, no.

I was able to go out to 100 a few weeks ago without a lot of trouble. The biggest issue was who to leave off, especially among relievers, as the Twins do have a significant amount of guys who have a legit chance of a major league career of some variety in the bullpen, and that's of value for sure. Already hearing buzz from guys of the Twins having a top 10 system, and the more talk that there is about the system, the more people seem to really like the depth.

Dang, our system must be super deep if these guys are the 41-50 prospects! These guys are all super talented and could make an impact at one point or another, not just a bunch of no name "will never make it to the majors" type of guys

Burned? He's 28. I'm just grateful if he still has one and league rules allow it to be exercised. What would the team save the option for, his old age?

I think that May could be a wild-card that may get the Twins over the top, if he returns to his previous self; however, the Twins will be better of if their front office is not living on a prayer, but starts planning without May. Little dirty secret about one of the worst rotation in the majors: Their "Ace" will almost certainly regress next season, based on his 4.46 FIP, 4.77 xFIP, & .245 BABIP. This pitching rotation to be competitive in the post-season will need 2 pitchers better than Berrios, and Santana is not one. If that means giving Santana up in a package to get one of, let it be. If May proves to be a lottery ticket and Gibson continues building on his second half (3.76 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP/.319 BABIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.2 K/BB), that would be amazing. But makes zero sense to plan on it. That's like planning on Hughes coming back and repeating his 2014 numbers next season...

He does have a 3.71 FIP and 9.5 K/9 rate in 200 MLB innings... May has been quite unlucky with the injuries thus far but when he's been on the field, he has performed.

There are plenty of middle relief options and possibilities but this team is still severely lacking dominate bull pen arms. Sign at least one big arm, if not two. It was straight up embarrassing to compare the pens in the wild card game, and the Twins would have only gotten exposed more had they advanced.

I see arguments for and against all of these and I see arguments for others to be included on this list as well. I always have a bias towards those closer to the majors so I lean Gordon from your list. He is the most likely to make an impact at the majors based on skills demonstrated and nearness to actually making a debut. I will be disappointed if he does not get his first taste some time next summer (same with Gonsalves) I do not think he or Gonsalves are close to the most potential though.

Way too early for me to even think about this, since I do most of my prospect work in December and January when there are enough moves made, but my #1 last season was Wander Javier and hitting .299/.383/.471 in the Appy League as an 18 year old, did not hurt himself. Royce Lewis might be close or overtake him. Not sure yet, but these guys will likely be #1 and #2 in some order, pending transactions.

For me, Nick Gordon being a top prospect revolves obviously around how he performs defensively as a SS, but offensively will he continue to develop plate discipline. His brother only walks around 5% of the time. To be a top performer, Nick needs to maintain the 9% he discovered this year, or preferably improve it while cutting down his strikeouts. He might improve his doubles power but he'll never be a slugger so he needs to get on base with solid contact and walks.

Probably has to be Lewis at this point, but I have Gordon right up there too. I know he tailed off big time and end of year, but he was amazing until that point and there was no doubt about his #1 status then.