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OK. So when a LH is pitching for the opposition and neither Mauer nor Castro should be batting who is going to catch? Who is going to play 1B?

ST stats are meaningless just as 0-9 opening season stats are meaningless. Seriously if ST stats are meaningless then why do we even have ST? We need to spend 30+ days getting warmed up? Here's to hoping Park makes the front office look silly.

I think the plan should be for Mauer to be on the bench more.

2 man bench. While the first ten days of the season don't mean much, we were out of the playoff race in two weeks last year. I agree with Dozier, expect the playoffs, which I do (although that probably means I need to have my head examined). I'd take competence to start the season

If he's subbing for Kepler or Rosario against LH pitching, he's not DHing. If he's DHing, both Rosario and Kepler (and Mauer) are in the lineup against LHers. Or Santana, I guess, which doesn't thrill me. I don't see how that helps much. If they want to give him a try as the fourth OFer, I'm fine with that, even if I think he'll eventually fail. But he doesn't help at DH, They need a RH DH/1b...

Surprisingly low on Grossman and Vargas. Not that you're wrong, just a bit surprised.

Vargas also hits much better as a RHB against LHP. For what it's worth, Park hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching last year. It's a small sample (183 PA against righties, 62 AB against lefties) but them's the numbers.

Agree on the rotation candidates, Roster man. While it wouldn't shock me to see Stewart still take a major step forward, he's just too far away, at the moment, and there a couple guys at AAA that would probably be up first. Also feel Wade, Gordon and Rosario are just too far away, but a September cup of coffee is possible for any and all. Even though I'm always the optomist, I really like the guys on this list. Very excited about the future of the bullpen and don't believe it's that far away despite the hand wringing taking place about the current one. Love the way Granite plays and approaches the game. Intrigued by Palka a lot and very interested in Vielma as at least a utility infielder. Goodrum, believe it or not, is one of my favorite names on this list. Healthy and being productive now, he, reportedly, can play decent defense at 7 spots and has a decent bat with power and speed. He may never be good enough, or special enough in any area to be a starter, but he could end being what we all hoped DanSan would become.

Good solid list. The outfield might be a problem, unless someone goes down. But expect a total revamp of the bullpen. Sadly, many of the rotation names won't be here until 2018/19 because of current contracts and the possibility that a Gibson or Santiago may shine brightly.

With the 2017 Minnesota Twins season set to open up on Monday, it's finally time to try to predict what this team will do over the next 162 games. (This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com) Looking at the Opening Day roster and comparing it to what we saw a year ago, making a prediction that doesn't have the Twins once again at least flirting with 100 losses takes a combination of considerable imagination and pure hope. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/DSC_0834-2-600x400.jpg Twins GM That Levine (Photo by SD Buhr) A 103-loss team a year ago, it's pretty hard to see obvious reasons to project a significant improvement in that record. The primary change (in fact, perhaps the only significant change) in the organization came in the front office and, no matter what you think of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the new Twins brass won't pitch or hit the team to more wins. This is a roster that cried out for pitching upgrades and I defy anyone to look at the Opening Day pitching staff and point out where significant improvement is going to come from. The decision-makers have determined that manager Paul Molitor will have 13 pitchers to choose from. I don't think volume is going to automatically make the staff better, though. What this roster does have, thanks to the extra pitching being carried, is a total lack of offense available off the bench. When Molitor looks down his bench for a pinch hitter, he's going to be looking at Chris Gimenez, Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana. The only way he'll see a viable pinch hitter in that dugout is if he has started Escobar at shortstop, leaving Jorge Polanco available. Gimenez, the backup catcher, is also supposedly the backup first baseman behind Joe Mauer. That's not ideal. I have to wonder if we won't see Max Kepler at first base with some frequency. I don't doubt he can handle the position (he did well enough there in Cedar Rapids back in 2013), but it's a waste to put a guy with his range in the outfield at first base. It just makes you worse as a team, defensively, at both positions. I don't envy Molitor the task he has before him this season. Owner Jim Pohlad made it clear at the end of 2016 that, regardless of who he hired to run his baseball operations, they were going to keep Molitor as their manager in 2017. So Falvey and Levine knew they wouldn't be able to hire the manager of their choice until the 2018 season. But it's almost as if they collectively decided that they weren't going to go out of their way during the 2016-2017 offseason to improve the Twins' roster and risk giving Molitor any chance to win enough games to make replacing him an unpopular thing to do, either with fans or with an owner who clearly likes the Hall-of-Famer, after his lame-duck season wraps up. Molitor has certainly not set the world on fir in his first two seasons as a manager. In this interview with the Pioneer Press' Brian Murphy, Molitor even admits that, "Learning to run the bullpen has been a work in progress." He'll get no argument from most Twins fans on that point. Molitor also conceded that his ability to produce more wins may be taken out of his hands as this season unfolds. After trying, and failing, to get what they considered fair market trade value out of veterans like Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana during the offseason, you have to assume that the Twins new front office would be quick to pull the trigger on mid-season trades of such players if they get off to good starts, driving up their trade values With a front office so obviously focused on the future, such moves would have significant negative effects on the chances of Molitor leading his team to enough wins to save his job. To his credit, it's clear from the comments he made to Murphy that Molitor, while being aware of these circumstances, isn't particularly concerned about them. Or at least he's classy enough not to express any such concerns publicly. Make no mistake, however, any ultimate failure of the 2017 Twins to substantially improve the results that fans see on the field would be a shared responsibility. I won't argue that Molitor would be blameless for a lack of success, but his front office did him no favors with its inactivity all offseason long. They had an obvious task - improve the pitching, both the rotation and the bullpen. They did almost nothing to address that need and that, in my view, would make them primarily responsible if a lack of pitching talent leads to another bad season. I'm hoping that another year of development will mean significant improvements on the field from guys such as Kepler, Polanco, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. I'm hoping Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson have good years and that whatever mix is in that bullpen turns out able to do its job well. I'm hoping that some of the organization's young pitchers develop quickly enough to provide upgrades during the course of the season. As a fan, hoping is all I have the ability to do. Unfortunately, everything I've seen, heard and read about the new Twins front office indicates that they're just hoping all those things happen, too. Falvey and Levine, however, walked into their offices at Target Field with the absolute authority to reshape their roster and they did virtually nothing to give Molitor - and Twins fans - anything of substance to hang our hopes on for this season.

To the great consternation of uniform purists everywhere, the New Era brand logo will appear on MLB caps this regular season for the first time, a practice that started in last year's playoffs. In the eyes of some, this is yet another obnoxious step toward commercialization of the product on the field. But in the case of the Minnesota Twins, it is a rather fitting insignia as the franchise wades into unfamiliar territory with an overhauled baseball operations unit led by total outsiders.Understandably, there's a general feeling of dissatisfaction among the fanbase after 103 losses were followed by a relatively quiet offseason on the player acquisition front. A roster that stumbled to the worst finish in the history of Twins baseball is back, largely intact. A rotation that ranked as the league's worst, routinely erasing any meaningful chance at a victory before games were half-done, brings only one new face: rookie Adalberto Mejia, who will be making his first major-league start when he takes on the White Sox in Chicago this weekend. A bullpen that failed frequently to put out fires, often fanning the flames for a full scale inferno, opens as a classic Twins group in all the wrong ways. Contact-prone veterans in high-leverage roles (Brandon Kintzler, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow), quantity over quality, general lack of upside. On the surface, it's easy to look at the construction of the Opening Day roster and feel dispirited as we lurch into Year 7 in this this almost exclusively non-competitive slog. It's a grand old game, to be sure, but the spectating appeal wanes as losses mount, especially when there's been so much lousy baseball contributing to that end. It comes as no surprise that the Twins are struggling to sell tickets, nor that polled fans are woefully pessimistic about the team's chances. Most would not be surprised to see another 0-9 start, or worse. Winning is the primary imperative right now, and I'm not just talking about placing notches on the left column. More importantly, they need to win back the hearts of casual followers and baseball enthusiasts. While a return to contention will ultimately drive this, the Twins can begin to move the needle simply by showing real progress. Therein lies their advantage. With expectations so staggeringly low, this is a tremendous opportunity for the club to pleasantly surprise. And while the minimal roster tweaking may not inspire confidence of a turnaround in the near future, foundational changes within the organization provide a central storyline that will define this season and give onlookers plenty of incentive to tune in and stay engaged. Open Minds At Sunday's final preseason presser, Paul Molitor acknowledged that his team hasn't offered much to cheer about but urged fans to be "open-minded," and it is advice that all should heed. No one can be blamed for carrying an ingrained skepticism about this team, or even a sense of apathy. Minnesota's run of difficulties and setbacks over the past several years have overshadowed any other franchise in the game. With the misery sinking to a new depth in 2016, there's no real feeling of upward momentum at this time. But the previous leadership is gone. The new top baseball bosses at 1 Twins Way are both external hires with no real ties to the organization. Derek Falvey, the fast-rising exec whose relative youth and inexperience are befitting the project he inherits, comes from a Cleveland operation that has become the crown jewel of the AL Central – not to mention a hotbed of mineable front office talent. Thad Levine, his hand-picked GM and right-hand man, was a longtime staple in a Texas braintrust that mastered the model of perpetual competitiveness, with seven first- or second-place finishes in the last eight years. Rob Antony, who made some impressive moves during his brief time at the helm as Terry Ryan's interim replacement, stays on and lends continuity from the old regime, but he is clearly No. 3 in the reconfigured hierarchy. There are systemic and pervasive issues afflicting this organization, and it may take time to lay proper groundwork for the sustainable contending models Falvey and Levine helped build elsewhere and envision here. In the words of team president Dave St. Peter, they're not "miracle men." No miracles required. Just sound and proactive decision-making, unobstructed by outdated mindsets or inhibiting loyalties. The new hires may have been selected specifically because they embody such characteristics. While we presently know little about the new executive duo, we do know two things: 1) This will be a front office that relies much more strongly upon analytics and modern philosophies, incorporating data and innovations while recognizing the blueprint for building a champion in today's MLB. 2) Any assessments being made by Falvey and Levine, whether regarding players or employees or frameworks in place, come with no shading from preconception or attachment. Complaints of the Twins lagging due to insularity or staleness are baseless going forward. It is clear that these guys are coming in with open minds, so fans should do the same. For those of us who enjoy following the nuts and bolts of roster management almost as much as the action on the field, this represents the most curiosity-piquing time for the Twins in decades. Better Days Ahead When you take away the emotion, and the raw freshness of 2016, there really is not much reason to expect the Twins to be terrible this year. They'll probably be bad, yes, nothing approaching the unwatchable mess that unfolded last summer. Betting lines have Minnesota pegged at 74.5 wins. Baseball Prospectus projects 78. These are objective measures for setting a predictive baseline on the team's outcome. Improving by 15 wins is about what we should anticipate. Of course, these same conventions also painted the Twins as a decent team last spring, when they wrapped up a similarly positive camp only to step into the regular season like a racehorse whose leg snapped as he ventured from the gate. No predictive tool can really account for the variables that conspired to turn an 83-win team into a 59-win disaster. But such tools also cannot account for unexpected breakthroughs and fortuitous turns. Such things have been in short supply for Minnesota lately, but how often in the marathon baseball schedule is a long losing spell countered by an ensuing hot streak? What happens to that 75-win baseline if Byron Buxton, more comfortable at the plate, turns into an offensive force and emerges as one of the game's premier impact players? What happens if the four veterans in the rotation replicate their 2014 performances, and Mejia proves a capable newcomer? What happens if the bullpen infusion starts coming to fruition and Tyler Jay is setting up JT Chargois in meaningful August games? Yes, this is a time of year where the mind tends to wander amid a teeming haze of promise and hope. Maybe that feels so much more convincing this spring because the bar is set so very low. Even if the Twins don't break an eight-year run of Opening Day losses on Monday afternoon, I do feel safe in saying they'll win their first game before April 15th. From there, it's all uphill. Click here to view the article

I get that the roster will change quickly, but... sheesh. The plan was for Mauer to DH more, and he's also a candidate to be pinch-run for occasionally. Not a lot of flexibility here the first week or two.

Did anybody ask them who else besides Mauer will be playing first base? What was their answer?

There's a lot of moving parts here. But the biggest one was Pohlads decision to protect his buddy. If he had not done that, Molitor would have saved face as being moved by the new administration. Falvine would be judged on their choice of a new guy right out of the chute, and roster decisions would not be graded on this curve. And it would have definitely helped ticket sales. All this said, it's not inconceivable that either scenario is correct, but my bet is on evaluation of players over a longer period. That fits in with both the slow pace of movement in FO moves, and in the simple fact that this team is not one SP away from contention.

I've seen this conspiracy scenario stuff sprinkled throughout topics all offseason. That's just not how things work in the real world, and this isn't the plot of a "B" movie, so no, they are not setting Molly up to fail. They are working together as a team to do the best they can now with a strong eye to the near future. Any Machiavelian motives just don't exist. If, and this is just a huge if, this was actually happening, then it would be a clear indicator that the front office are not effective leaders and have no business running anything. Again, that sort of passive undermining just doesnt happen when you are talking about this level of management/leadership outside of movies.

Oh, I agree that there are guys whose arms just break down faster and harder than other guys. That was kind of my point. Hughes hasn't suffered from extended overuse, his arm just wasn't that solid in the first place. That's not a knock on the guy, some guys have rubber arms, others don't... But it's hard to look at Hughes' track record and conclude an excess of innings is the cause of his ailments.

Well Vargas hit just .233 in 402 PA at Rochester last year, and he also hit .179 in winter league. I don't have much confidence in him at this point.

I think you about nailed it Seth, though I could see both Grossman, if used properly as a RH hitter, and Park with slightly higher BA and OB. Park hit a little better than listed above when healthy at the begining of 2016 and has apparently shown improvement. I think games played, and all numbers, are going to be predicated a bit by Mauer and his health. Not picking on Mauer, and more days off will probably help, but he does seem to miss time every year with at least one injury. Really need to get down to that 12 man staff ASAP.

Mauer as a DH, which I think will happen ~1 month after Park gets the call (June, roughly), might be very compelling.

I think this is pretty accurate. They are still evaluating the players in hand, the 40 man, and even the minors. (Not to mention the organization as a whole). Understand, I am not a really happy camper with this roster as it stands today. And I absolutely would have tried to make a trade to keep Haley and send him down, thus keeping Park and providing a more flexible bench. But I truly believe this is another 2-4 weeks of EST to conduct evaluations and make decisions.

A near .800 OPS is too aggressive for my taste. He's still young and learning. Maybe in the next year or 2 he reaches that level. This year I'm predicting 450 PA, .700-.725 OPS with 15 HR.

I'm going to go with .255/.310/.465 with 20 home runs, 30 doubles, 15 triples with 23 SBs. With that defense...yes please.

Agree with Dave and Mike that Buxton will be a 4 WAR player this season. A lot of it will come from his elite defense... It's going to be fun tracking his progression. I still think he's going to have some slumps which will decrease the numbers overall. .725-.750 OPS, 18 HR, 14 Web Gems on Baseball Tonight.

I got the under.

I think you're underestimating Buxton's speed. Despite being terrible for most of last season, he hit six triples in 330 plate appearances.

Herr Kepler's development into at least a borderline all-star is one of my 3 keys to the Twins having success sooner rather than later. The others being Rosario and Berrios. So I am obviously bullish on the guy because I am fan of his and the Twins. SO....570 AB 286/343/492 28 2B/19 HR/3 3B. Solid defense and a great attitude. Bringe den Donner junger Mann!!! I will wear his jersey in Germany this summer and see if I can drum up some new fans. 20 years from now maybe Twins daily will have to spin off Twins Taglich.

It only takes a slight misplay or an odd bounce for him to turn a double into an ITPHR. I think I said this on another thread a few months back, but I'm going to predict 5 of those.

There was a write up last year in fan graphs about Kepler's elite pitch recognition skills. https://www.google.com/amp/www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-case-study-in-pitch-recognition-with-max-kepler/amp/ As far as I can tell, non of the analytic sites are predicting a sophomore regression. He has the tools. Kepler will be a star. Watching him and Buxton develop together will remind us of the Puckett and Hrbeck development. Now we just need to identify someone assume the roles of Viola and Gaetti. (Note I have left Eddie Rosario off this list because I think his lack of discipline will prevent the Twins from having a truely elite outfield).

Start off with a little brag! I was at the game in Texas that was his major league debut. 8th row behind home plate. Prediction- 40 steals, 20 triples and a Gold Glove

I share your concern, and wish that the Twins would add more padding to the outfield walls.

It seems to me guys start losing velocity after only a few seasons into their career. Maybe 1.5-2MPH is the norm but I don't know that 3 is a huge outlier. He's 28 in people years but he's been in the majors a decade; in pitcher years he's like 34.

Love the optimism. Not sure I share it, but he sure deserves 5-10 starts (once you decide to give him a shot) at this point.

September 12 through October 2, 2016, Buxton hit .219/.315/.500 (.815) which is certainly a fine OPS from a Gold Glove caliber CF, but that BA was pretty painful. His BABIP was .305 so probably a little shy of what we should expect of a guy with Buck’s speed. His September stats were primarily boosted by his .405 BA and .476 BABIP in the first 10 games of that month (1.355 OPS). Even then he struck out at a 30% clip over those 10 games. I’m a big Buxton fan, but I’m not so sure his contact issues are behind him. I’m also not optimistic he can sustain the 10% walk rate he had in September. If Buck can manage a .250 BA and keep his OBP>.300 I believe his power will put him in the mid to upper .700s for OPS. Not an All-Star, but a guy trending in the right direction.

There's a lot of hopium in this article.

Only 47 qualified hitters hit .287 or higher last year. I'd be thrilled if Polanco was in that group, and played decent enough SS.

Good grief, it's time to quit babying Buxton. Bat the kid third if you think he'll do best there. And against lefties I don't even have Mauer in the lineup.

I make myself feel better by imaging Dozier's production comes at 1B and Mauer's at 2B and that the two are each paid $16 million. It still works out the same, but everyone's a little happier.