Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins Future Position Analysis: Starting Pitching


    Cody Christie

    Starting pitching must be part of Minnesota’s offseason equation, and Dylan Bundy has been the team's only offseason addition. Will the Twins rely on their young pitching depth in the years ahead?

    Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Sports

    Twins Video

    Current Starting Pitchers: Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe
    Two young pitchers and three pitchers that struggled last season isn't the recipe needed for a last-place team trying to rebound. Bundy certainly has some intrigue, especially when looking back to his 2020 season. If the Twins can work with his pitch mix, he may improve enough to be a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. He's the most veteran pitcher on the staff, so there is a possibility the team adds other arms before Opening Day.

    Ober and Ryan were terrific during their first taste of the big leagues. Many were surprised by Ober's ability to pound the strike zone and work quickly. Ryan's unique fastball made it challenging for hitters to adjust, and he looks to be part of the team's long-term plans. Expectations need to be tempered with both pitchers because there will likely be some growing pains during their sophomore seasons.

    Last winter, Minnesota signed Dobnak to a unique extension, and then he proceeded to have his worst professional season. The Twins tried to use him in the bullpen to start the year, which was just the start of his season-long issues. Thorpe was limited to less than 40 innings last year, and he struggled at multiple levels. He's out of minor-league options, so he will have to earn a rotation spot this spring, or the team can try him in a bullpen role.

    40-Man Roster Options
    Many of Minnesota's top pitching prospects are scheduled to spend time at Triple-A, and that might be one reason the club didn't spend big money on free agent pitching this winter. Top prospects Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands are all on the 40-man roster and project to spend time in St. Paul. All four of these arms ranked in the team's top-20 prospects in the second half of the season. Griffin Jax has big-league experience, making him a depth option if some of the top prospects aren't ready. Minnesota acquired Drew Strotman and Ryan as part of the Nelson Cruz trade. One of the reasons the Twins acquired him was because he is close to big-league ready. 

    Other players on the 40-man roster include Chris Vallimont and Blayne Enlow. Vallimont posted a 6.03 ERA in 21 Double-A starts last season, so it seems likely for him to get a repeat trip with Wichita. In June, Blayne Enlow underwent Tommy John surgery, so he won't be back into game action until later this summer. This winter, Minnesota had a tough decision regarding adding Enlow to the 40-man roster, but he can eventually be moved to the 60-day IL to open an additional roster spot. 

    On the Farm Options
    Not all of the players listed below are guaranteed to be on the team's roster at the start of next season. Still, it offers some insight into the organization's starting pitching depth. Minnesota has multiple starting pitching options populating the rosters throughout the minor leagues.

    At Triple-A, there are multiple players with big-league experience. Jake Faria received a non-roster invite when Minnesota signed him at the beginning of December. Devin Smeltzer was removed from the 40-man roster after injuries limited him to one appearance in 2021. Charlie Barnes posted a 3.79 ERA with a 1.28 in 16 Triple-A starts. Bryan Sammons and Austin Schulfer are both Rule 5 eligible but can slot into roles with St. Paul if they stay in the organization.

    Some of the team's other top-pitching prospects are penciled in for Double-A. Minnesota acquired Simeon Woods Richardson as part of the Jose Berrios trade. As a 20-year-old, he spent all of 2021 at Double-A and played in the Olympics. The Twins selected Matt Canterino in the second round back in 2019, but he was limited to six starts last season because of an elbow strain. Louie Varland finished the year at High-A, and he will be looking to build off his breakout 2021 season.  

    There are some other names to watch in the minor's lower levels. Much of the organization's 2019 draft class projects to be at High-A, including Cody Laweryson, Sean Mooney, and Sawyer Gipson-Long. Laweryson was young for Cedar Rapids last season, and he posted a 3.86 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. In 13 starts, Mooney posted a 2.79 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Gipson-Long struck out over 12 batters per nine innings at Low- and High-A in 2021.

    Steve Hajjar and Cade Povich were top-100 draft picks in 2021. Hajjar was one of the Big Ten's best pitchers in 2021, and that's why the Twins took him with the 61st pick. He has yet to make his professional debut. Povich dominated in his four starts after being drafted as he allowed one earned run and struck out more than 17 batters per nine innings. Their college experience can help to make them fast risers next season. 

    Marco Raya and Chase Petty are two young pitchers to watch with the FCL Twins. Minnesota drafted Raya in the 4th round back in 2020 out of high school in Texas. Petty was the Twins 2021 first-round pick out of high school in New Jersey. Raya has yet to make a professional appearance, and Petty made two appearances after signing last year. Besides the names mentioned here, many other pitchers at each level can impact the upcoming season. 

    Overall, Minnesota's current starting rotation doesn't look built for a playoff run, but 2022 may be set up for the young pitching core to debut. What do you think about the organization's starting pitching depth? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

    OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
    Catchers
    First Base
    Second Base
    Third Base
    Shortstop
    Center Field
    Corner Outfield

     

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a Twins Daily Caretaker

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments

    Featured Comments

    I personally think the pitching in the system is a good thing.  I know many believe we cannot go into next year with so many untested guys, but at some point they need to be tested.  They are all starting to get into mid-20's which is when you really want to know what you have.  I say give them a shot, see what you have and if you feel you need go out and trade mid-season for someone.  I am never a fan of long term deals on any age pitcher but even more so on a 30 ish pitcher.  I know many want to spend everything you can to fill the rotation, but that does not guarantee they will live up to the money you throw at them.  Pitchers are so volitile and one injury can derail a great career.  Sometimes they just lose some velo and never learn how to adjust to that.  

    Very few big time pitching deals do you look back and say that was a good deal for the team, normally the pitcher lives up to the deal for 1 to 3 years then the last few are very overpaid and you are stuck paying a guy that may be pitching out of your pen, but you just keep hoping they find the old stuff and getting rocked while they cash huge pay checks.  Also, having the top pitchers in the league does not mean we will win anything, it only helps.  I have always been have a good floor and talent across the staff, not just a few top arms because they only pitch so often. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    As for putting Enlow on the 60-Day IL list, that is only possible if he is first promoted to the active roster, then placed on the IL. In that case he will earn major league service time while on the IL. I do not forsee the Twins doing that.

    Otherwise, he will just be on the minor league 7-day list.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    44 minutes ago, twinsfansd said:

    As for putting Enlow on the 60-Day IL list, that is only possible if he is first promoted to the active roster, then placed on the IL. In that case he will earn major league service time while on the IL. I do not forsee the Twins doing that.

    Otherwise, he will just be on the minor league 7-day list.

    There is a 60 day IL for the minors. The Twins will option Enlow to the minors in spring training and place him on the 60 day IL. It will cost them an option year, but not ML service time.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Quote

    I know many believe we cannot go into next year with so many untested guys, but at some point they need to be tested. 

    Of course, but signing 1 or 2 front line guys in no way prevents the young guys from getting tested. No team goes through a season using only their original 5, you need at least 8 good pitchers to have a decent rotation. I think a lot of us were hoping they would both sign good pitchers and start testing out the young guys, a move which would have been quite reasonable.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    When Detroit, Houston, and other teams tanked their rosters were bereft of talent up and down the roster. These teams then turned to accepting woeful results in hopes that top draft choices would pay off. Correa, Bregman, Mize, and Manning are examples. The Twins have talent up and down their roster. They need a couple experienced starting pitchers to complement their talent. The current state of the teams starting pitching may have promise in prospects for the near future, but only the other AL Central teams could be happy with the rotation noted in the post. There isn't a legitimate MLB rotation right now on our roster. Bundy could be a fair depth piece and we hope he does well. Dobnak, Ober, and Ryan are potentially solid mid to back end pitchers. Our prospects provide potential additions as opportunities arise, which always happens every year. This leaves a notable problem however. Who fills the top two or three spots? Without somebody pitching on those days, all discussion of depth becomes moot. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    It is so hard to judge prospects.  I would not have expected Ober and Jax to get the call last year and I do not expect Jax to be back this year, but who knows.  The success rate for prospects is not high and our prospects look good in our team rankings, but how to they look in the bigger picture national rankings? 

    Joe Ryan at 21 is the only prospect in the top 30 list at CBS 

    Just Baseball has Simeon Woods-Richardson at #54, Balazovic at 88,  Miranda and Martin are the non-pitchers in the top 100 

    MLB.com has Royce Lewis and Austin Martin at 35/36. They rate Balazovic our top pitching prospect at #81.   No other pitchers on the list. 

    You do not have to be top 100 to be a successful pitcher - look at Ober.  But if you want a 1 or 2 you probably want to see them appear on these lists. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    It is so hard to judge prospects.  I would not have expected Ober and Jax to get the call last year and I do not expect Jax to be back this year, but who knows.  The success rate for prospects is not high and our prospects look good in our team rankings, but how to they look in the bigger picture national rankings? 

    Joe Ryan at 21 is the only prospect in the top 30 list at CBS 

    Just Baseball has Simeon Woods-Richardson at #54, Balazovic at 88,  Miranda and Martin are the non-pitchers in the top 100 

    MLB.com has Royce Lewis and Austin Martin at 35/36. They rate Balazovic our top pitching prospect at #81.   No other pitchers on the list. 

    You do not have to be top 100 to be a successful pitcher - look at Ober.  But if you want a 1 or 2 you probably want to see them appear on these lists. 

    To be fair that CBS list is a fantasy baseball list. Not sure that's something anyone should really care about when it comes to the Twins winning games.

    I agree it'd be nicer to see more Twins arms appear on prospect lists, though. But the general thought around Twins Territory is that Jose Miranda is a vital, big-time prospect now and you'll notice he isn't on any of those lists. 

    Fangraphs has Balazovic (44), Duran (81), SWR (85), and Canterino (97) in their top 100. I think that's why it's so important for teams to have a ton of pitching prospects. I'd rather have 10 dudes with 45+ future value scouting reports than 2 dudes with 55+ future value scouting reports and nobody else above a 40. I mean Gore went from the top pitching prospect in the game to not being able to throw a strike. Quantity is a huge part of pitching development. Not predicting the Twins have a bunch of aces waiting in the wings, but I like how they're setup right now.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    What Falvine has done is build prospect pitching depth.  Next step for at least some will be key to organization's success down the road.  I think Jax may stick as a reliever...his numbers were terrific first time through a lineup, not so terrific after that.  I don't need to ever see Lewis Thorpe in a Twins uniform again.  I'll give Charlie Barnes the benefit of the doubt in that he likely wouldn't have been the choice for spot starts if guys like Duran, Winder, etc. were healthy, and his numbers at AAA were strong.  Maybe he can make some adjustments now and be serviceable as a AAA/MLB swing man.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    14 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

    What Falvine has done is build prospect pitching depth.  Next step for at least some will be key to organization's success down the road.  I think Jax may stick as a reliever...his numbers were terrific first time through a lineup, not so terrific after that.  I don't need to ever see Lewis Thorpe in a Twins uniform again.  I'll give Charlie Barnes the benefit of the doubt in that he likely wouldn't have been the choice for spot starts if guys like Duran, Winder, etc. were healthy, and his numbers at AAA were strong.  Maybe he can make some adjustments now and be serviceable as a AAA/MLB swing man.

    Saw Barnes was released and signed overseas, I think in Korea (according to mlbtraderumores). Look at Cleveland, they just seem to grow pitching prospects on trees.  Hopeing we have the same success here.  It may take another year to see what we have.  Then you use money to fill the holes. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Prospects are just that: prospects.  I wish we could have given more pitching prospects a chance in 2021 to see what they could do.  It's funny that their names get mentioned so much that people automatically believe the hype. .we all know that very few prospects ever pan out.  Fewer still ever become good major league players.  Our pitching staff as currently constructed is not major league. Hopefully it works out and maybe a couple become usable. But it also has the potential to be one of the worst pitching staffs in Twins history.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Cleveland traded for Bauer, Carrasco, Miller, Kluber to name a few. Yes, I believe they do develop their pitchers but we need to understand that trades are an important part of building a team.

    "During Falvey's time in Cleveland's front office, the team has acquired star-caliber talent through almost every avenue: free agency, trades, draft, international market." - from Twins Daily, October 18, 2016 by Nick Nelson

    The Twins need to complete two trades; it's the right time.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 12/24/2021 at 9:00 AM, tony&rodney said:

    Cleveland traded for Bauer, Carrasco, Miller, Kluber to name a few. Yes, I believe they do develop their pitchers but we need to understand that trades are an important part of building a team.

    "During Falvey's time in Cleveland's front office, the team has acquired star-caliber talent through almost every avenue: free agency, trades, draft, international market." - from Twins Daily, October 18, 2016 by Nick Nelson

    The Twins need to complete two trades; it's the right time.

    Bauer was acquired after his first season in which he was below replacement level.  Kluber and Carrasco were prospects that had never pitched in the majors.  The trades being suggested here suggest trading prospects for established players which is an entirely different strategy.  While they are both trades, one could argue that trading for prospects is and entirely different strategy than trading prospects for established players.  If you look at Oakland and Tampa’s rosters over the years you will see that trading for prospects had a huge impact on their success.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

    I just don't see Strotzman as a big league SP option right now.  His walk rate is just way to high for a MLB pitcher. Maybe the coaches can fix it, but I'm not betting on it 

    Strotman is coming off Tommy John and it is said control is the last thing to get back after rehab. That is why there is hope for a turn around.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    22 hours ago, wabene said:

    Strotman is coming off Tommy John and it is said control is the last thing to get back after rehab. That is why there is hope for a turn around.

    True, but his lowest WHIP the past 4 years has been 1.42. He also regressed when he left the Rays pitching system last year. I am hopeful, but wouldn't put him in the top 10 of our SP prospects.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 12/25/2021 at 8:16 AM, HrbieFan said:

    True, but his lowest WHIP the past 4 years has been 1.42. He also regressed when he left the Rays pitching system last year. I am hopeful, but wouldn't put him in the top 10 of our SP prospects.

    Strotman is also the secondary piece in the Cruz trade. Anything they get from him is a bonus the way Joe Ryan appears to be developing. If he turns into a legit bullpen arm, it's a huge win.

    There's a lot of really good depth in the Twins system for starting pitching, with some of these guys looking like they could be front of the rotation guys. It's also important to remember that pretty much any projection system will almost never project a guy as an ace. The Twins guys had a lot of injury hiccups last year, and will likely get dinged for it. But there's enough promising guys to fill a pitching pipeline for the rotation...and there's a few guys in there that could have big years ahead.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    On 12/26/2021 at 6:08 PM, jmlease1 said:

    Strotman is also the secondary piece in the Cruz trade. Anything they get from him is a bonus the way Joe Ryan appears to be developing. If he turns into a legit bullpen arm, it's a huge win.

    There's a lot of really good depth in the Twins system for starting pitching, with some of these guys looking like they could be front of the rotation guys. It's also important to remember that pretty much any projection system will almost never project a guy as an ace. The Twins guys had a lot of injury hiccups last year, and will likely get dinged for it. But there's enough promising guys to fill a pitching pipeline for the rotation...and there's a few guys in there that could have big years ahead.

    How he became a Twin really doesn't matter to me. That trade is looking like am A+++++ right now.  I am just not excited about him as a prospect 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites



    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...