Getting Jhoan Duran Back on Track

Completely agree, win-win for Duran and Twins. Duran get to pitch at MLB level and Twins get relief help. If all goes as planned next year, stretch him out the next year.

Has there been any indication, Matt, that Duran is throwing so a return this year is possible?  Or is he still shut down?

The key difference with Kopech is that Kopech had TJ surgery in 2019 and it was behind him.  Duran hasn't had surgery, so that possibility is still out there.  I don't know about others, but my fear is that his problem returns later this year or next and he isn't available until 2023 or later.

But I will agree with your premise that if he does return late this year or next, it would be smart to use him out of the bullpen to limit his innings in 2022.

Agree. So many MLB pitchers began their careers as relievers. Johan Santana was one example. If Duran is hurt he has to be put on the shelf but eventually he needs some experience and learning the ropes from the bullpen can be a very effective way to start a career and may also serve the needs of the club as well.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree. So many MLB pitchers began their careers as relievers. Johan Santana was one example. If Duran is hurt he has to be put on the shelf but eventually he needs some experience and learning the ropes from the bullpen can be a very effective way to start a career and may also serve the needs of the club as well.

Johan Santana was a stashed 21 year old rule V prospect who had not pitched above A ball. There are zero similarities in his path and Duran’s. Other than parent organization name.

Duran seems like he's in line to be the next Fernando Romero to me. Never ending accolades about "stuff" that never shows up in actual results.

Duran can't throw strikes (or even hit the catchers mitt) and he still gives up a lot of hits. He's only once shown dominant results in the minors, that was 2018 in regular A ball in Cedar Rapids, but he was struggling before the trade that year with Arizona in A-ball.

AFAIC, he's got a 1/2 season to show dominance or I'd push him out of the top 20 prospects in the system. He's got plenty to prove and there should be a push to get Duran innings if they can this year. Comparing Duran to Kopech was a crazy reach.

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Duran seems like he's in line to be the next Fernando Romero to me. Never ending accolades about "stuff" that never shows up in actual results.

Duran can't throw strikes (or even hit the catchers mitt) and he still gives up a lot of hits. He's only once shown dominant results in the minors, that was 2018 in regular A ball in Cedar Rapids, but he was struggling before the trade that year with Arizona in A-ball.

AFAIC, he's got a 1/2 season to show dominance or I'd push him out of the top 20 prospects in the system. He's got plenty to prove and there should be a push to get Duran innings if they can this year. Comparing Duran to Kopech was a crazy reach.

I don't know his WHIP wasn't that bad in 2018 and 2019 certainly this year to start he looked pretty rusty.  I don't think the OP was comparing their stuff as much as that they are both hard throwers and the fact the White Sox used him as a reliever which is what I believe Duran will eventually become.  He really only has two pitches and he has been pretty hittable to this point in his career.  He also seems like he might hold up better as a reliever.  There is less pressure on the WHIP as a reliever so some wildness doesn't kill him there.

He could be Romero but that seems a bit pessimistic as he does have a SPlinker as a plus pitch,  He might be able to get by on that pitch alone as a reliever. I will agree with you that his stats do not support him as a dominant pitcher at least in the upper levels but he has an arm with elite characteristics so not a player you throw away.  He still has time to move his ceiling to starting pitcher especially if can develop that changeup. I guess we will know more once he stays on the field more than a few games.

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

He could be Romero but that seems a bit pessimistic as he does have a SPlinker as a plus pitch,  He might be able to get by on that pitch alone as a reliever. I will agree with you that his stats do not support him as a dominant pitcher at least in the upper levels but he has an arm with elite characteristics so not a player you throw away.  He still has time to move his ceiling to starting pitcher especially if can develop that changeup. I guess we will know more once he stays on the field more than a few games.

Romero was voted the #1 Twins prospect in 2017. Accolades flowed readily about Romero's "stuff" on various Twins sites including a mystical 100mph fastball despite Romero rarely actually limiting runs. Also, I didn't say a single thing about throwing Duran away. Downranking Duran in the prospect list doesn't mean the Twins need to release him. 

I don't think the Twins can make any plans that count on this kid next year. He's found money if he turns out  to be healthy & effective.

In my classic Minnesota pessimistic view:

He's still sidelined with a vague elbow strain, right? I imagine he's going to rest/rehab until spring '22 at this point. Maybe it's something that heals on its own but we've seen enough times this lead to eventual surgery that will wipe out another year and a half. At which point he'll be 25 years old with 3 years of minimal innings. If all goes well and he holds up health-wise then he'll then spend 2nd half of 2023 establishing innings/command. So new ETA is 2024 at 26 years old, probably with a new ball club.

46 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Romero was voted the #1 Twins prospect in 2017. Accolades flowed readily about Romero's "stuff" on various Twins sites including a mystical 100mph fastball despite Romero rarely actually limiting runs. Also, I didn't say a single thing about throwing Duran away. Downranking Duran in the prospect list doesn't mean the Twins need to release him. 

 

Sorry I guess the comp made me think he would end up the same as Romero.  Romero never did better than that season and his K rate dropped until 2019 when he got his chance at the MLB level I believe.  He got shelled there never to return.

I can agree Duran is too high on the top 30 as I see him as a reliever but likely an elite one if the arm stays healthy.  I think his stuff is a fair bit better than Romero's although I don't think he gets enough movement on one of his fastballs and the changeup to this point seems to be more of a liability than asset.  Command and control need work but that generally seems to be a problem for most hard throwers.  He does not not have Kopeks K rate so they are not comparable in that way.  I still think his future looks better than Romero FWTW.

If you think Duran is not going to need TJS (Canterino, too), you're fooling yourself just like the Twins are.  How many years are they going to waste "rehabbing?"  These guys have it now, they can be pitching in the instructionals next fall.  Put it off until you see he can't pitch next year, and you lose 2023 as well.

I have no idea.  I want him in the rotation.  I do not know how he heals.  I hope they get some outside opinions. 

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

If you think Duran is not going to need TJS (Canterino, too), you're fooling yourself just like the Twins are.  How many years are they going to waste "rehabbing?"  These guys have it now, they can be pitching in the instructionals next fall.  Put it off until you see he can't pitch next year, and you lose 2023 as well.

Check this article out.

https://twinsdaily.com/index.html/minnesota-twins-news-rumors/kenta-maeda-elbow-second-opinion/

Surgeons are not going to perform a reconstructive surgery if there's no reason to do it. If it looks like a very mild strain with minimal tearing, especially if it's in a good location, it may be expected for Duran to make a full recovery without surgery. If Duran later needs TJ, it just means he would have blown out the new UCL anyway. Rehab is super important. Strengthening the elbow and forearm so the UCL isn't taking on more stress than the ligament can handle in the first place is key to avoiding future surgery.