Article: Put Him in Coach? Aaron Hicks is Ready for Center Field

[cmathewson]

To me, it's not as much about walks but pitch selection. If he waits for his pitch, he has a chance (from the left side, anyway).

[Mike Sixel]

Pitch selection and discipline are meaningless if you can't make contact at pitches in the zone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know I've read that somewhere that discipline is a better sign than something like batting average and translates better as well. So a prospect is more likely to replicate discipline than a high batting average.

 

Could be. I'm pretty sure IsoD is more consistent from year to year than batting average, among MLB players at least. Perhaps with isolated power slotting between them?

 

It also seems logical that IsoD would be "easier" to translate from the minors to MLB too, at least compared to AVG or ISO. How much easier, I'm not sure.

 

I too am encouraged by Hicks' IsoD history, and I hope it bounces back. I'd really like to see a genuine low K hitter come up from the minors one of these days too, although if they start hitting well otherwise I guess I don't care how much they K. Jorge Polanco looks like the next low-K guy, but he's still in A-ball.

[tobi0040]

FWIW, this spring, Hicks has 2 BB vs 6 Ks in 49 PA. (And Arcia 3 BB vs 16 Ks in 53 PA.)

 

I think this is a very brief sample size and given his track record, I am not worried. He is hitting .340 this spring and his walk rate was 7.6% last year.

[Jerr]

Hicks should have more confidence due to the work he has done since he was sent down.

Pressure due to Pressley or Bartlett??? I would worry more if, I knew Bartlett was able to replace me:p

[Riverbrian]

I hope Hicks is ready... I'm pulling for him. If he gets going... I think he will be fun to watch.

 

John Fogerty may have to play CF if Hicks isn't ready.

[highlander]

I'd like to hope Hicks will become a star and a longterm solution for lead-off (Line-up Hicks, Buxton, Mauer, Sano . . . ), but think it will ultimately be Buxton at leadoff/CF. More realistically, I think we'll be accepting Hicks as a .250 to .275 hitter, at best, taking a role in the #7 or #8 spot with light power but decent speed - playing left field (maybe right if these reports on his arm are correct). There is enough talent in our system and with Mauer as #3 for a few more years, that this type of contribution should be satisfactory, but not dazzling.

 

I can see a lineup of Hicks leading off followed by Mauer. Then Buxton batting third with Sano as the classic cleanup. I think Hicks will be a .300 plus, 20 big fly guy. I am extremely high on Hicks. Maybe switch Buxton and Hicks in the order. Mauer is an ideal #2 hitter with his patience and bat control.

[halfchest]

I can see a lineup of Hicks leading off followed by Mauer. Then Buxton batting third with Sano as the classic cleanup. I think Hicks will be a .300 plus, 20 big fly guy. I am extremely high on Hicks. Maybe switch Buxton and Hicks in the order. Mauer is an ideal #2 hitter with his patience and bat control.

 

Hicks has a minor league average of .269 and only batted over .300 once in rookie ball. I'll be happy if he can hit the .269, especially after last year. The 20 dingers is more of a possibility but again, he's never hit more than 13 in a year. That said, he's young and guys do often develop more power as they age but the batting average likely won't be near .300 at least not for a full season. If it does and he maintains his current IsoD, well then he's got OBP of .400 which would be amazing I'll settle for a .265/.355/.400 line from him. If he can do that consistently and play solid defense he'll be a very good CF and even solid corner OF for us for years.

[cmathewson]

Pitch selection and discipline are meaningless if you can't make contact at pitches in the zone.

 

Historically, he'll K about 20% of the time and walk about 15% of the time. So he's not a high-contact guy. When he makes contact, he has a high LD% and a correspondingly high BABIP. He also has a high IsoD throughout his career. So, yeah, Ben Revere he's not. I for one am glad for that.

[cmathewson]

By the way, throughout his career, he has had a BABIP over .300, often close to .350. Last year in the majors, it slumped to .241. In addition to all the mental errors and other mistakes, he was also unlucky.

[tobi0040]

By the way, throughout his career, he has had a BABIP over .300, often close to .350. Last year in the majors, it slumped to .241. In addition to all the mental errors and other mistakes, he was also unlucky.

 

So if he would have had average luck last year (.300), he would have hit about .230 (25% more hits than .192). If he would have hit .230 last year instead of .190, it would not have been a constant headline. He would have been OB about .300 with 9 HR. Not good, but not a dreadful first 80 games after skipping AAA.

[blairpaul715]

It is nice to see others thinking the same way as myself..........I am still high on Hicks. He will be better than Revere and Span in the long run, I also eventually( in 2 or 3 yrs) see him hitting 20 plus HR's a season along with a .260-.275 avg and well above avg defense.

[Wookiee of the Year]

At the same time, he converted on just 98% of plays that were considered “Routine” -- 90%-100% chance of conversion -- the lowest mark in that category.

Is that a typo? If it's not, I have to wonder how meaningful it is--how many "Routine" play opportunities did Hicks see last year? It wouldn't take more than an unlucky misstep or two, I would think, to go from a well-rated center fielder to a poorly-rated one if 98% is the lowest score.

[LaBombo]

He had to beat out Presley or go back to AAA. He did that, resoundingly.

 

"Oh, and there's only one spot open right now, so we're gonna have...

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8RLAiD-_tTc/UoHQ_ZC30LI/AAAAAAAAC0w/xsG2F1Iq0bU/s1600/joker-batman-pool-cue-tryouts.gif

...tryouts."

 

 

ST battles make sense for competitive teams needing to fill a bench spot or two, all other factors being relatively even. But if the rebuilding Twins are using ST performances as a significant factor in settling position battles, then it calls into question their commitment to greater emphasis on even basic metric evaluative principles, let alone advanced metrics.

 

Still hoping they'll come around in that regard. With respect to Antony's remarks about nobody stepping up in position battles including CF, my hope is that in the case of Hicks the organization decided to start him in center before ST but Antony included him as being a guy battling for a starting spot anyway, just to use him as another example that furthered the 'new (acting) sheriff in town' message.