Article: Moving Goalposts

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2782-Moving-Goalposts

[Winston Smith]

Well said!

[Sssuperdave]

I'm not certain that the goalposts are moving, rather than expectations were unrealistic to begin with, and probably still are. I think we've all been salivating thinking about a team built around Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, and Meyer, but I don't expect those five to instantly produce the moment they hit the majors. Even if everything breaks right and all five of them become all-stars, I wouldn't expect it to be until their third year in the majors. So, if Buxton and Sano debut in 2015 we're really talking about 2017 before this team really hits it's stride, and even that is optimistic because I don't think you can plan on all five becoming all-stars.

 

The one good thing about all this losing is that hopefully all those high draft choices can produce a pipeline of talent that lasts a while. I think the problem we all have is that we're impatient. Kohl Stewart has the potential to be a #1, but he probably won't even see the majors for thee or four years, and again will probably need two or three years after that before he's really producing at a top level.

[Dr. Evil]

Sooooo.......your sayin there's a chance!!! YYYeeeessssssss!!!!

[Mike Sixel]

2017 now. Wow.

[Craig Arko]

http://www.mentalhealthmn.org/find-support/resource-list/crisis-lines

 

In case anybody needs crisis counseling. I used to do computer support for MHAM so I can vouch for them.

[TheLeviathan]

Hard to disagree with a blog that said basically the same things I've been saying. So....great blog!

 

If the Twins lose Diamond and Worley, the depth on both sides of the ball gets more questionable. Maybe not worse that last year, but huge unknowns.

[frightwig]

When I look at the front office decisions this winter, I'm not entirely sure whether management is really lost at sea or just merely content to muddle along and collect high draft picks until Buxton and Sano arrive. If I'm feeling generous, I have to assume that they just spent money on pitching this winter, knowing full well that the new guys aren't really that good, with the intent of just being not-quite-so-embarrassing for the next couple years. Like, maybe if the team can show just enough progress to get 70-ish wins this season and next, then maybe the fans won't tune out, and maybe the team can be in position to push above .500 again when the top prospects are in place. By 2018, then, maybe the front office will replace the pitchers they just signed with some mix of prospects and one or two veterans who could lead a legit contender.

 

That isn't the most inspiring plan, because it's a slow approach and a lot could go wrong (and already has). But it's what I hope they have in mind, because I don't like to think that Nolasco-Hughes-Pelfrey is really the club's idea of "aiming high" or the kind of guys Terry Ryan really wants in the Twins' next playoff rotation.

[Highabove]

The Fans are paying high ticket prices to see very bad baseball at Target Field.

The fans deserve to see an entertaining product on the field, regardless of what the future holds.

 

" I'm not sure the Twins realize the amount of anger which is building towards their Organization"

Patrick Reusse

[Halsey Hall]

I'll put myself in the 2nd group of fans. Mind you, I've been a fan since day one, attending opening day in 1961, so no reason for anyone to question my fanhood. To maintain any sense of sanity I had to turn off so many games early last year. It just wasn't much fun. The atmosphere here this year is just zero, no feeling of any expectations at all, and their spring training games just enforce the feeling. About the only thing I feel confident in is that I'll be able to see competitive games for more innings this year.

 

I remember back when we really should of beat the Yankees in the playoffs, back when we had teams that had a pulse and a chance to go deep in the post season only to fail when IMO Gardy just made bonehead moves. And I remember telling anyone that would listen that it'll be a long time before we get this chance again. I'm afraid it might be alot longer than I even imagined then. After all, we do have the curse of "Big Popi". He almost singlehandly ended the curse of the "Bambino" and all we can do is think of what if.

 

Granted we've got some very nice young players coming up the pipeline. But let's remember, so does every other team. Some of these guys I see play for the opposing teams down here really look outstanding. Every team has hope for the future with their prospects. Are the Twins really that much better in the minors that it will translate to a winning team in the majors? Time will tell. But I'd put a date of hoping so at 2018, and not before. I sure hope I'm wrong on the closer side.

[Guest USAFChief]

It's tough to sell the future as a reason to be interested in the present.

 

They had the opportunity and means to put a better product on the field in 2014, clear needs that matched available players, and the real kicker...none of it would have negatively impacted the future in any significant manner.

 

That they chose not to pursue that is their choice to make, of course, but it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that interest in the Twins is down, and almost certainly hasn't bottomed out.

[JB_Iowa]

I place myself in the first group, mostly for the sake of my sanity

 

This is really the point. None of us has much (if any) influence on what the Twins do. The most we can do is endure and hope.

[TheLeviathan]

Let's pile all the negative stories into one article and push publish. Too bad no one around here wants to provide balance. Pessimism is a self-fulfilling prophesy. It's all too easy to project regression and injuries. Harder to make accurate projections that include development. Way to take the easy way out.

 

Projecting injuries isn't pessimism. Injuries are a reality all teams face every year to varying degrees. What is inaccurate is a projection with no care for depth against injury, that's completely unrealistic.

[cmathewson]

Projecting injuries isn't pessimism. Injuries are a reality all teams face every year to varying degrees. What is inaccurate is a projection with no care for depth against injury, that's completely unrealistic.

 

It just seemed like he was speculating about what would happen if everything went wrong. That's not only unrealistic, it's not even very interesting.

[Guest USAFChief]

I place myself in the first group, mostly for the sake of my sanity

 

This is really the point. None of us has much (if any) influence on what the Twins do. The most we can do is endure and hope.

Well, the people here at TD aren't the people the Twins need to worry about. We'll most likely attend games, support radio and TV ratings, and do so despite their record. In my case, I've been following them, and spending money to do so, for 50 some years, and I'm not likely to stop doing so. I'm not an unusual case here.

 

But there's not enough of us here. The Twins do need to worry about the much more numerous casual fans, because if they lose them, it affects attendance, ratings, merchandise sales, etc etc etc. And in that sense, as a whole, fans do have a pretty huge influence on the Twins.

[JB_Iowa]

And in that sense, as a whole, fans do have a pretty huge influence on the Twins.

 

But not in the sense of individual moves.

 

I do think that there may be more pressure on management to win this year. And a better understanding that baseball, not just the "Target Field experience" matters.

 

But that still really leaves us enduring and hoping. And when I see the Forbes numbers about last year's profit, I wonder how much is really pressure to win and how much is just a mirage especially when we've seen past numbers on Houston's profitablity.

[TheLeviathan]

It just seemed like he was speculating about what would happen if everything went wrong. That's not only unrealistic, it's not even very interesting.

 

I'm going to suggest that you misread that paragraph. Nick wasn't projecting all those things to happen, he was noting all the different areas in which even one injury might cause some headaches. He just said them as one stream of thought, not projecting them all to happen.

 

It's the same thing I noted in the other thread, there is virtually no position on offense the Twins could see an injury or awful performance in which they have a feasible backup plan. The odds of the Twins having zero injuries to their offense is HIGHLY unlikely. It's not pessimism to point out how shallow this group is.

[cmathewson]

But not in the sense of individual moves.

 

I do think that there may be more pressure on management to win this year. And a better understanding that baseball, not just the "Target Field experience" matters.

 

But that still really leaves us enduring and hoping. And when I see the Forbes numbers about last year's profit, I wonder how much is really pressure to win and how much is just a mirage especially when we've seen past numbers on Houston's profitablity.

 

You gotta spend money to make money. Even the old man got that, eventually. They committed 80 mil to the team this year to make it respectable. Everyone knows it would take another 87 to contend, and they don't have the horses. The horses will have to wait until 2016, when both Sano and Buxton should be ready. I'll settle for respectable until then.

[JB_Iowa]

You gotta spend money to make money. Even the old man got that, eventually.

 

In baseball, you don't seem to have to do so. The Houston Astros had Operating Income (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of 55.9 million dollars on revenues of 186 million.

 

While their revenues were the 4th lowest, their Operating Income was the 2nd highest. Not a bad gig if you can get it.

 

Per the Forbes figures which are probably the best available to the general public. http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#page:1_sort:0_direction:asc_search:

[bird]

I'm also a member of the 1961 Club. There have been a lot of teams over the years that have been close to unbearable to watch. Last year was up there in this category, and I hate to say it, but I'm likely to have the game on as background noise a whole lot in 2014. There are just too many players that are about as fun to watch as Hal Narragon. (Remember him, Halsey?) BUT...the minor league pipeline is better than any I've seen in the past, and MUCH better at that. I loved watching Gaetti, Hrbek, Puckett and gang flounder before they figured it out, so I'm not stressed about 2015 and beyond. I remember some very uninteresting teams when our Top 10 prospect pipeline included Eric Lis, David Winfree, and Doug Deeds. So, I'll take what I can get in 2014 and follow the system, because I'm completely confident that we have exceptional quality coming in waves. Yes, other teams have talent too, but very few have more than we do.

[DocBauer]

Thank you Nick! Thank you very much! And that is heart felt, no sarcasm in the least!

 

I believe you have accurately captured the feelings of many in one single article. Lately I have been rather despondent over many of the posts and arguments here at TD. Debates and conversations have turned in to sniping and nit-picking. (Pay real money if anyone could ever tell me once and for all what the heck a "nit" actually is. LOL)

 

I'm 48. I've lived my whole life in South Dakota and Nebraska. I've been a real and true and devoted fan since I was 5 years old learning the game from an amazing man, my father, almost exclusively from the radio and snippets of information in the early days from the Trib and Sporting News, and anywhere else we could grab it. Spent hour after hour of my life fighting static on clock radios, transistor and car radios to listen to games after dark or on the west coast. I remember the days of Carew, Hisle, Bostock, Smalley and Wynegar. I've been blessed to see my favorite team reach the pinnacle of success twice, struggle through some additional poor years, only to rebound with a decade of success and "near" success before the last three years.

 

One of the beautiful things about baseball is there is always next year. Even in a bad year, there is always the next game. And the next young player making his debut, or turning in to an eventual star. That's the beauty of baseball. I know the past three years have been hard on all of us. But let's be honest, we are ALL real fans. We might be optimistic, or we can choose to be doomsayers, but we are ALL fans of our beloved Twins.

 

Would we be here if we weren't ???

 

A couple months ago I felt a real optimistic kindred amongst us all as we prepared for the 2014 season. Hopeful of rebounds from veterans, continuing development from youngsters, hopeful for the arrival of talented youngsters, and pleased as well as surprised by the Twins actions to improve the club through unprecedented FA spending on the rotation. Sano's injury, a couple bad weeks of ST baseball suddenly has the sky falling for some. And dare I say, bickering via frustration has begun to commence.

 

I have my concerns, no doubt. But I also see hope. Not just in all the wonderfully talented youngsters that will keep me glued to milb reports and speculation for the upcoming season, but also for the arrival of this season.

 

Our team should have quality defense up the middle and 1B. Our bullpen is back, and shouldn't be as taxed as last year as we have actually improved the worst part of our team, and probably the biggest key to any MLB team, the starting rotation. While not blowing smoke and telling you we are gong to contend this year, we should at least see better ball, and a more competitive team day in and day out.

 

I am excited to see a team that might win, rather than being behind by 5 runs going in to the 4th inning. I'm excited to see what Gibson, Arcia, Pinto, Dozier, Mauer, Hicks and talented call ups will do this season.

 

Im hopeful, in person, watching TV, around the tablet or laptop, or listening to the radio, with a beer in one hand and a dog in the other, that we can enjoy our team this year. A team in transition toward something better, competitive this year, enjoying healthy rebounds and young men getting their first taste, and healthy and friendly debate and discussion on TD.

 

GO TWINS!

[JB_Iowa]

Well written, Doc Bauer. I may not agree with all you've said but I do appreciate the sentiment.

 

I think we just need the season to start. We have too much bickering and frustration over hypothetical results right now. At least once the season starts we can argue over reality.

[DocBauer]

High 5 JB!

[Ultima Ratio]

I cannot understand how you can write this yet still be an optimistic fan unless one is taking the extremely long view. It's a compelling argument for pessimism when I read it.

 

It is a tuurible team. - Sir Charles

[BigTrane]

First, props to Doc on saying that we're all real fans. Lots of divisiveness lately, and it's understandable why. You can look at all the numbers and information you want, but in the end, you're faced with the optimistic/pessimistic choice. That seems to be the source of the disagreement.

 

Second, just finished listening to Olney & Crasnick agree that the Twins will finish last in the ALC with 68 wins. At the same time I was reading Beardino's piece where Antony said the Twins couldn't give their money away this off season. Then I read about Buxton's injury...

Olney concluded that "it's going to be a tough year for a proud organization"- boy, he got that right.

 

Many of us have clamored to tap into the FA market to augment the farm, but if you can't give it away, and the up-and-comers are still on the way up, what can you do? We're on the horns of that dilemma now.

 

Same as Doc, I'll keep watching, looking for flashes wherever they appear. Dozier saved me last year, so I'll follow him closely. Being a Twins fan ain't for the faint of heart.

[TheLeviathan]

Same as Doc, I'll keep watching, looking for flashes wherever they appear. Dozier saved me last year, so I'll follow him closely. Being a Twins fan ain't for the faint of heart.

 

Let's hope Gibson and Hicks do the same this year - even in an awful season I want reasons to watch and be excited for the future.

[Craig Arko]

First, props to Doc on saying that we're all real fans. Lots of divisiveness lately, and it's understandable why. You can look at all the numbers and information you want, but in the end, you're faced with the optimistic/pessimistic choice. That seems to be the source of the disagreement.

 

Second, just finished listening to Olney & Crasnick agree that the Twins will finish last in the ALC with 68 wins. At the same time I was reading Beardino's piece where Antony said the Twins couldn't give their money away this off season. Then I read about Buxton's injury...

Olney concluded that "it's going to be a tough year for a proud organization"- boy, he got that right.

 

Many of us have clamored to tap into the FA market to augment the farm, but if you can't give it away, and the up-and-comers are still on the way up, what can you do? We're on the horns of that dilemma now.

 

Same as Doc, I'll keep watching, looking for flashes wherever they appear. Dozier saved me last year, so I'll follow him closely. Being a Twins fan ain't for the faint of heart.

 

This is why the Mesopotamians invented beer.

[Riverbrian]

I continue to believe that if you are good enough to play in the majors. You are good enough to help your team win games.

 

I believe in Mo... I believe in energy. I believe all 30 teams have a chance to surprise and disappoint.

 

I believe the difference between the 50th best player in the major leagues and 300th best player is extremely slight in the grand scheme of the game.

 

I also believe that if the Twins played with the energy they displayed last year. They have no chance.

[Guest USAFChief]

I continue to believe that if you are good enough to play in the majors. You are good enough to help your team win games.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka concurs.

[Riverbrian]

Tsuyoshi Nishioka concurs.

 

LOL... "good enough to play in the majors"

 

I had to double check to make sure I posted that qualifier... Thank Goodness I did.

 

One time... I remember telling my son that he could be President. He looked at me and said "I'm only 5"

 

I forgot to qualify that statement. And my son spent the next 5 years thinking I was full of it.