Article: Out of Answers

[ashbury]

I was pro "trade an OF for pitchers", but said we'd have to judge the actual trade when we see what happens.

 

A luxury that the scouts themselves do not receive, obviously.

 

You're right to go on to say they get paid for it, but the converse is that second-guessing remains second-guessing, even if you say in advance that that's what you intend to do.

[stringer bell]

I agree with most posters. Stick a fork in the Vanimal. He is done. Will he pass thru waivers?? Probably not--somebody will give him one last shot. Could he comeback?? Of course. Will he?? Who knows.

 

The Twins still have 3 candidates for starter (Diamond, Gibson, Deduno). They have Meyers in the minors and maybe May. Cut the Vanimal now.

They have more than that I think. I liked what I saw of Gilmartin and Johnson, particularly Johnson. They also have Darnell and Raley. I saw Darnell on the minor league side (no opinion) and didn't see Raley. In my book, some of these guys are better than De Vries, Walters, Vazquez etc. that they threw out last year. Yes, Worley is a goner for the rotation, but there are plenty of 5th starters to take his place.

[PseudoSABR]

The time to sneak him through waivers probably isn't now.Plenty of teams will use the rest of ST to evaluate him and waive him near opening day if need be. Waive him when there's more desirable players on waivers (closer to opening day).

[pierre75275]

I can not believe he will get a 25 man roster spot. I think they should try to passhim thru waivers now. I dont think anybody would claim him and I doubt he could put up worse numbers. If they wait he might get put up better numbers and get claimed, which i could see the twins and Terry Ryan doing for this purpose

[TheLeviathan]

I agree with Psuedo - don't waive him now. Waive him after final roster decisions are made and hope he slips through.

 

This guy was too good with Philly for these results to be taken as what he "truly" is. Something's wrong either with his approach or the way he is being coached or something. It would be a huge loss for this team to have dealt Revere for him and have him flame out this badly. I'm hoping he gets another shot to figures things out with us.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't believe people think a cost controlled CF that put up over 2.4 WAR in his second year in the majors is "fringe". As for second guessing, I had no way to judge the trade at the time. They get paid to be right about if a guy is good or not. If they are wrong a lot, it is how you end up "winning" this many games.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

It looked like his shoulder was bothering him, maybe it was his elbow - looked like he tweaked his knee walking to the dugout. Some time on the DL, a couple of rehab starts and who knows he might be ready when one of our pitchers inevitably come up hurt in May.

[tobi0040]

I can't believe people think a cost controlled CF that put up over 2.4 WAR in his second year in the majors is "fringe". As for second guessing, I had no way to judge the trade at the time. They get paid to be right about if a guy is good or not. If they are wrong a lot, it is how you end up "winning" this many games.

 

Combine 2011 and 2013 and he had a total WAR of 1.8. Carlos Gomez, by the same calculation had over 8 WAR last year. I am guesing WAR doesn't factor in runners advancing on his noodle arm.

 

But the general point I was making is that he was at least 3rd on the future depth chart at CF behind Buxton and Hicks. He has a career OPS .654, a total of 45 extra base hits in 1,300+ at bats. That and his arm make him a very poor corner OF option.

[Riverbrian]

The time to sneak him through waivers probably isn't now.Plenty of teams will use the rest of ST to evaluate him and waive him near opening day if need be. Waive him when there's more desirable players on waivers (closer to opening day).

 

I stand corrected... You are right!

[PseudoSABR]

I can't believe people think a cost controlled CF that put up over 2.4 WAR in his second year in the majors is "fringe".

That's cherry picking stats to prove your conclusion. Revere was fringe in 2011 and 2013. After all, I can write a sentence like: I can't believe people are willing to give up a cost controlled SP that put a 3.4 WAR in his second year. The sentence however is misleading; the point is that there's a real debate, and it's pretty easy to see the warts and upside of both Worley and Revere.

[nicksaviking]

I actually feel foolish even stating this, but watching his outing and thinking about his dramatic drop in performance made me wonder if he was juicing when he was with the Phillies, but is no longer doing that, and this is what he's really like without the juice. I just can't think of any logical explanations.

 

 

Only in jest, because I'm very anti-PED's and would not want to lay baseless accusations against anyone, but:

 

Are we entirely sure that he was thoroughly and vetted that Vance Worley is not actually Eric Gagne.

 

[gil4]

Maybe they should ask him to tank one more start so he will be more likely to pass through waivers.

 

Right now I don't think they would have to ask. They could just run him out there again.

[Dantes929]

Right now I don't think they would have to ask. They could just run him out there again.

That's funny and you are probably right. Thing is if he has two good outings I don't think that should be enough for him to go north but it might be enough to keep him from passing through waivers. By the way, this is in response to a prior poster but I was completely kidding about asking him to tank his next game. Best result for the Twins is if he passes waivers and goes to the minors. That's the gut check. If he earns his way back then I tip my cap to him and hope he does well but that is the way it should be done. If he fails then we would rather him do it at the minor league level and that is just the nature of the game.

[Rosterman]

Right now, you have to wait until the last day to send him thru. If you did it today, another team could claim him and keep him until the last day, and he would probably go thru waivers. 25-man rosters are far from set, so he is the 26th-man on any claim, at the moment. i imagine he would go thru. You can also hold off and keep him on the roster and send him down opening week, too. But, if he is injured now or in the time he's in major league camp, he collects major league salary on the dl. Personally, the Twins have to STOP thinking about options and waivers and anything else. Go with the BEST 25. Trust your depth. If a guy doesn't look like he'll be here next year for sure, don't worry so much about losing him this year. The Parmelees, Diamonds, Worleys, Mastros (even Duensings) are all replaceable parts, if not internally, maybe by picking up someone else's waiver wire guy. The killer is some of these guys stinkin' up the minors and keeping the future from playing now, today. Do we need Diamond and Worley taking starts at AAA. Seriously?

[LaBombo]

When was the last time a 26 year old starter was waived after putting together 250+ sub-4.00 innings followed by just one bad season? Doesn't mean the Twins can't or shouldn't waive him, but it seems like an awfully unusual career path.

[golfboy1]

Worst starting pitcher on the worst starting staff in baseball. Are we really concerned that another team will pick him up? I agree with Shane, this is just plain WEIRD that he is so bad, but weirder things have happened. Time to move on.

 

 

 

I agree. I realize he's still reasonably young & there is always a chance he will bounce back but do we need to worry that someone will claim a pitcher who had a 7.21 ERA last year and has looked far worse this spring?

 

His upside seems likely to be a #4 or 5 starter & we already have plenty of them. He's been passed by plenty of others.

 

Trevor May was always "the guy" in the Revere trade. Worley was just a decent throw in. I remember hearing that the Phillies thought the league had figured Worley out & he wasn't likely to be successful in the future

[LaBombo]

The killer is some of these guys stinkin' up the minors and keeping the future from playing now, today. Do we need Diamond and Worley taking starts at AAA. Seriously?

Most of the good starting prospects are still over a year away from AAA. And it seems to me that if the Twins can absorb over 300 innings of major and minor league pitching from Nick Blackburn after his 2010 season that made it apparent to everyone but the Twins FO that he's a bad pitcher, they ought to be able to scrape up some innings somewhere for Worley and Diamond to get sorted out.

[Willihammer]

Yeah your comp is Nick Blackburn. The ages don't lineup perfectly but its the same story. Guy with lackluster stuff suddenly becomes less than 100% perfect with his command, because of injury, psychology, mechanics, age, whatever, and then he gets shelled. There's just no room for error. Even when they hit all their spots, upside is 1-2 years of 4.00 ERA pitching, eg. Worley cca. 2011-2012, Blackburn cca. 2008-2009 or Diamond cca. 2012. This is not a new story, esp. to the Twins.

[Willihammer]

I will say that while the Twins have 2 weeks of free control, what I would do is sit Worley down and tell him his only shot of making the club is if he can beat out Fien for the 7th inning spot. Tell him he has 1 inning. See if he can dial it up to 95-96.

[TheLeviathan]

That's cherry picking stats to prove your conclusion. Revere was fringe in 2011 and 2013. After all, I can write a sentence like: I can't believe people are willing to give up a cost controlled SP that put a 3.4 WAR in his second year. The sentence however is misleading; the point is that there's a real debate, and it's pretty easy to see the warts and upside of both Worley and Revere.

 

I don't understand why we have to belittle the value Revere would have had to us the last two years in order to establish that Worley has value as well.

 

We gave up a valuable outfielder that surely would've helped this team. (If the injury hadn't happened of course) What we got was a pretty solid looking pitcher....we just have to hope we can find that guy again and find a way to keep him.

[LaBombo]

Even when they hit all their spots, upside is 1-2 years of 4.00 ERA pitching, eg. Worley cca. 2011-2012, Blackburn cca. 2008-2009 or Diamond cca. 2012. This is not a new story, esp. to the Twins.

Agree with the last part, but Blackburn isn't really a comp for Worley, he's the floor of the range of sustained mediocrity the organization will tolerate. Unlike Worley, Blackburn was unable to miss bats except for the occasional intentional walk. So Worley might end up being the ceiling of the range of mediocre guys they don't tolerate.

 

Won't be crying in my Corona if Worleybird is waived and claimed, but after what other guys have repeatedly gotten by with, it would be a bit of a head-scratcher.

[jimv2]

I was at the game last night. I cannot imagine a scout looking at that and saying he's worth an MLB roster spot. I saw more outs during batting practice. And there were no bloopers or dribblers. Everything was hit on the screws, with several good defensive plays behind him. It's not like this is the first bad outing, either. We saw similar performance in his time with the Twins last year and earlier in the spring. You'd have to be pretty desperate to take a flier on him.

 

From my observations, the problem with Worley is pretty clear: His stuff doesn't play unless he keeps the ball at the knees. He was doing that in Philly, but since he came over here, he has not.

 

No idea what the solution is, though. There are some hints that he's just overthrowing, and that may be affecting either a sinking quality to his pitches or the release point or....? I suspect this "Vanimal" stuff isn't helping, nor is anxiety. He maybe has a chance if he figures out again how to pitch rather than throw.

 

The problem the Twins have is that he does have upside. He has proven major league ability. But can it be tapped again? We could stash him in the bullpen for a while, using him only in low stress situations like mopping up forgone losses, and maybe he could find himself before we get to the point in May where bullpen depth becomes critical. The DL possibility someone proposed could work.

 

If they DFA him, somebody will pick him up and then DFA him. So if we're going to DFA him, it has to be at a time where a team wanting to pick him up is forced to option (or DFA) another player. That happens on last cutdown day. And even then, a team may be willing to do that. And when that team evntually DFAs him, maybe another team picks him up. But eventually the merry-go-round stops, and the last team gets to send him to the minors to try to figure out a way to consistently keep the ball down. I'd really like for us to be that team. Because if he and his coaches do figure it out, he's a good pitcher.

[bdoom5]

Just release him. I don't want him taking minor league innings from our young pitchers who need them.

[bdoom5]

Right now I don't think they would have to ask. They could just run him out there again.

 

So True!

[Mr. Brooks]

When was the last time a 26 year old starter was waived after putting together 250+ sub-4.00 innings followed by just one bad season? Doesn't mean the Twins can't or shouldn't waive him, but it seems like an awfully unusual career path.

 

The results with the Phillies was the aberration, what we are seeing now is the norm.

It wasnt too hard to predict if you look at the numbers outside of the shiny ERA. You cant sustain a K/looking rate like Worley had. Unless you have nasty stuff (which he doesnt), making hitters take strike 3 is not a skill, its just a freak instance of randomness.

Add to that, the fact that he isnt committed to baseball, as evidenced by his comments regarding his conditioning last year, and his constant excuses after bad performances, and you have a bad combination.

I got ripped pretty hard last year when I predicted this outcome, but it is no big loss if Worley is claimed by another team, I don't see a reason to wait.

[Kwak]

Would one good game actually change anything? Pitchers are stacking-up in the system (remember those signed this off-season?)--cut Worley loose and give a game to somebody worthy.

[Mr. Brooks]

Would one good game actually change anything? Pitchers are stacking-up in the system (remember those signed this off-season?)--cut Worley loose and give a game to somebody worthy.

 

Exactly.

If Worley can't crack the rotation this year, when will he?

Hopefully by this time next year Gibson and Meyer will be in the rotation, and by then you'll have a couple more young guys knocking on the door, with Nolasco and Hughes signed multiple years, this was the year for him to sink or swim, I don't see a future here for the 'Vanimal'.

[DiscGolfer]

If he gets claimed off waivers does he need to stay on that team's 25 man roster?

[LaBombo]

The results with the Phillies was the aberration, what we are seeing now is the norm.

It wasnt too hard to predict if you look at the numbers outside of the shiny ERA. You cant sustain a K/looking rate like Worley had. Unless you have nasty stuff (which he doesnt), making hitters take strike 3 is not a skill, its just a freak instance of randomness.

Fewer than 50 innings is the norm, and the preceding 5 years, 2 in the majors, were the aberration? Maybe it's the new norm if his arm is still screwed up, but otherwise... really?

 

If you look past the shiny ERA, you see shiny (for the Twins) FIPs and xFIPs, BABIP fortune that evens out to average or so, and K/BB and HR rates that should allow a pitcher to sustain a 4ish ERA most of the time.

 

Worley's chance of continued success in a major league rotation took another hit last year, after the 2012 arm problem dealt the first one. And there's no clear place to put him. But for a franchise that blocked half of its top four rotation spots for KC and Pelf again, discarding Worley looks like it might be another sign that a franchise that has been one of the worst in MLB at figuring out starting pitching has failed yet again.

[cmathewson]

It's the zero swinging strikes that is most telling, IMO. Sometimes, the BABIP gods can be cruel and everything put in play seems to find a hole. But if you can't get even one swing and miss in 61 pitches, it seems to me you're not throwing major league stuff. Send him down, and if someone claims him so be it.

 

Yeah. Also, everything was hit hard. My buddy called it the parade of doubles. There was no luck here. It was pure, unadulterated crappy pitching. In a regular season game, he wouldn't have lasted through the second inning.