Article: Twins Don't Need More Starters

[jokin]

Who specifically projects at a #5 ceiling? How has that approach been working for the Loveable Losers?

 

Look at the current roster. Other than Nolasco, based on 2013 stats, the entire staff ASPIRES to #5 SP-level numbers.

 

The Cubs are in a rebuild and have admitted as such to everyone. The talent they acquire they look to flip at their peak value for prospects- that approach has been working out just fine- their farm is ranked near or just a shade under the Twins farm system.

[Willihammer]

Gibson, Meyer, and May are close. Though Gibson is not technically a prospect because of his time on the team last year, he has yet to receive a full shot. When we talk about prospects, I think we mean those guys primarily.

 

The thing I agree with about Pelfrey as a head scratcher is an Antony quote. To paraphrase, they didn't want to just pay for his rehab. They wanted to get more out of that investment with a fully healthy guy. That is an example of the sunk cost fallacy. If he's not as good as, say, Gibson, why sign him?

 

Last year Pelfrey was as good as Gibson. Better in fact, sad as that is to type.

 

Also injuries.

 

And Gibson was the #68 prospect! None of the others (Darnell, May, Gilmartin, Deduno, Mayer) is even ranked except Meyer. And this is the 2nd go around on the fringe of a roster for Deduno and Diamond, I don't know what more needs to be said about those two.

 

Mike Pelfrey isn't blocking Taijuan Walker, he's mostly just blocking a bunch of 25-29 year old AAAA talents and handmedowns who I frankly don't want to see, ever.

[howieramone1406390264]

Look at the current roster. Other than Nolasco, based on 2013 stats, the entire staff ASPIRES to #5 SP-level numbers.

 

The Cubs are in a rebuild and have admitted as such to everyone. The talent they acquire they look to flip at their peak value for prospects- that approach has been working out just fine- their farm is ranked near or just a shade under the Twins farm system.

 

How would you know what they aspire to? What # a pitcher is, takes in much more than 2013 stats. Scouting, make up and stats. Did you know the Cubbies just completed the worst back to back seasons in their 137 year history?

[Guest wabene]

Who is #1?

 

I am a Duluthian transplanted from MPLS and the Strib is still my first read.

[NoCryingInBaseball]

After listening in to last night's game, and following the previous games, I think that the starting pitching discussion should be expanded to relievers. Considering how poorly the relievers have preformed so far, some of the starter prospects on the bubble should have a shot at those positions when going north after spring training.

[jokin]

After listening in to last night's game, and following the previous games, I think that the starting pitching discussion should be expanded to relievers. Considering how poorly the relievers have preformed so far, some of the starter prospects on the bubble should have a shot at those positions when going north after spring training.

 

It's early, and so little stock is put into ST stats, but at least one or two of the bubble guys are going to find a way onto the 25 man, imo.

[jokin]

How would you know what they aspire to? What # a pitcher is, takes in much more than 2013 stats. Scouting, make up and stats. Did you know the Cubbies just completed the worst back to back seasons in their 137 year history?

 

How would I know what they aspire to? Well, I'm sure they all dream about putting up career years, but given what they accomplished most recently as members of the worst pitching staff in baseball, plus Hughes' nightmare season in NY that fits perfectly into the Twins numbers, hitting #5-level numbers in 2014 will be a major improvement for this group. "Scouting" of Pelfrey? Make-up maybe. But his career stats and the fact that the Twins apparently competed against themselves don't portend much more from the Pelf than his career 4.50 ERA. Plus, Correia came in as a #6 SP, as he was booted from the rotation in Pittsburgh (in favor of a guy we dumped), and is due for some regression in 2014- Steamer says 4.94 ERA, ZIPS projects 5.07 ERA, let's be positive and say he returns to his own 4.50 career ERA- which puts him with Pelf, solidly in #5 SP territory.

 

Re- the Cubs, you do acknowledge that the Twins are in their own worst, back-to-back and 3-year stretches in their history, right? But unlike the Twins, the Cubs have fully acknowledged full-rebuild mode and base all of their acquisitions on what that acquisition does in making the team better at some point in the future, not splitting the baby, trying to have it both ways, like the Twins have done.

[tobi0040]

IMO, the problem wasn't signing (or not) Santana but rather resigning Pelfrey. I truly don't understand what the point of that was (especially for two years). He won't be here when the Twins contend next, he is another below average pitcher with little to no upside and he is taking up a rotation spot that could be used by a pitcher that will be here down the road to either gain experience or show he belongs. To me, if the question is between giving innings to Pelfrey or Gibson/Deduno/Worley/May/Meyer/Darnell/Gilmartin that is an easy choice to make.

 

I also think 2 years from now we'll all be saying, "WTF were the Twins thinking signing Hughes to a 3 year contract?!?"

 

I agree 100% on Pelfrey but think Hughes was a savvy gamble. His numbers outside of the new Yankee stadium suggests he is a #3 starter. I calculated it awhile back and want to say his ERA away from the new Yankee stadium is about 4.15, over about 450-500 IP.

 

This is a perfect ballpark for him (fly ball pitcher that is tough on righties), he has good stuff and upside, is young, and we are paying him #5 money.