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Diamondbacks looking for C (Pinto?) for SS (Owens/Didi).


PseudoSABR

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Player A is Pedro Florimon, Player B is Didi Gregorius.

 

Oops! As deservedly highly regarded as Didi is in the field, his bat has always been, and always will be, a major question mark, notwithstanding the 3 year difference in age. Excellent statistical illustration S.!

 

And I actually would greatly prefer Gregorius over Florimon, but the logic of trading away the "possible answer" for one of the Twins positional black holes for another of the black holes escapes me completely.

 

If the D-Backs are really willing to make this deal, it means they must regard the trade for Gregorius in the first place as an overall failure- let alone to somehow assume that he be regarded as somehow, "elite". (They traded away a BA #9 Starting Pitching prospect to Cleveland in a 3-way deal). By signing Drew and giving up nothing except a 2nd Rd. pick, it gives the Twins the chance to buy ample time to see if one of their prospects is going to be the long-term answer, or if they need to seek another major league option somewhere farther down the road. If they do find the right candidate, Drew would then make an excellent 2B option as he approaches 35- to the Twins or someone else.

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Tulowitski is a pipe dream. Guess who will be looking for a SS next year? Hint: they can afford anybody.

 

Allow me to clarify-- I meant Tulo would be a better target than Drew for sustained success in the future.

 

Regardless, I honestly don't think we even know how the FO will spend when this team enters its window of contention. Suppressing payroll in the rebuilding process is hardly proof that TR/the Pohlads will be gun-shy when this team starts its run.

 

EDIT: ah, my apologies, I had run across an article that suggested Tulo would be an acquisition target, not a potential FA signing. My apologies for my own general buffoonery.

 

FWIW, the Yanks definitely don't have the pieces to acquire Tulo. We might... whether we should or not is an entirely different question.

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Drew hasn't his above .253 since 2010. If he was anything but a shortstop, nobody would be petitioning so vociferously to sign him.

 

I still think Florimon's defense will offset any improvements Drew might provide offensively.

 

BA is not an accurate descriptor of the qualitative difference between the two players, and Drew's injury years are easily thrown out of the equation. The 2013 yawning gap of 166 points between Drew's OPS of .777 versus Florimon's .611 OPS more than offsets the defensive differences, and then some by quite a bit, as reflected in the 2+ game fWAR difference between the 2 players.

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A lot of the posters on various Twins' subjects seem to automatically assume the Twins will make their "run". Granted there is a lot of young talent coming along now but that does not necessarily translate into a decent "run". What the rest of the division does plays huge in that in my mind.

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Batting average absolutely is the most overrated stat. I remember a few years ago Cuddyer said as much. I took it as a shot at Mauer. He liked to take subtle shots at Mauer from time to time. There was another time Cuddy got HBP square in the hand and was back in the lineup the next day. Mauer was out at the time nursing a hangnail and Cuddy took another subtle shot at him and later apologized to Mauer. Good ole Cuddyer loved to stir things up!

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Batting average absolutely is the most overrated stat. I remember a few years ago Cuddyer said as much. I took it as a shot at Mauer. He liked to take subtle shots at Mauer from time to time. There was another time Cuddy got HBP square in the hand and was back in the lineup the next day. Mauer was out at the time nursing a hangnail and Cuddy took another subtle shot at him and later apologized to Mauer. Good ole Cuddyer loved to stir things up!

We get it, you don't like Mauer.

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There's no reason to panic.

 

If Pinto is going to be a good MLB hitter and hold his own defensively, then we might as well keep him and offer contracts to FA SS's next off season or until someone signs. JJ Hardy is going to be a free agent next off season and there will also be other options over the next couple of years. There will also be other trade options as well.

 

Most of the young guys are still in the minors and / or still trying to establish themselves as MLB players. There's plenty of time to get a SS, if and when the Twins are ready to move on from Florimon.

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Batting average absolutely is the most overrated stat. I remember a few years ago Cuddyer said as much. I took it as a shot at Mauer. He liked to take subtle shots at Mauer from time to time. There was another time Cuddy got HBP square in the hand and was back in the lineup the next day. Mauer was out at the time nursing a hangnail and Cuddy took another subtle shot at him and later apologized to Mauer. Good ole Cuddyer loved to stir things up!

 

Thank you Dan Barreiro.

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Drew hasn't his above .253 since 2010. If he was anything but a shortstop, nobody would be petitioning so vociferously to sign him.I still think Florimon's defense will offset any improvements Drew might provide offensively.
Harmon Killebrew's lifetime batting average was .256.
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Batting average absolutely is the most overrated stat.

 

RBI and Runs are far more overrated. Batting average is a repeatable skill and helps tell you how often a player made an out. There is value in that, though in a vacuum batting average is seriously flawed.

 

RBI and Runs are heavily influenced by the rest of the lineup. In a vacuum they're not only flawed, they're basically useless.

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If that is true, why would the Diamondbacks make that trade then?
Because they have two SS and no future catchers; again, I doubt a one for one trade gets it done.

And I think that you are severely underestimating Pinto's Defense...

I certainly hope so. But the scouting reports are certainly mixed.
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I don't get this. You don't create one hole to fill another. Pinto is the future. There's no one else in the pipeline.
My premise is that the Twins don't see Pinto as an everyday catcher (just a premise, not a fact); and of course there's risk in making a trade like this. I think the catching pipeline takes a big jump this year with Turner and Navarreto.

 

The Twins were in heavy on Salty so it's safe to say they have some lingering questions about Pinto.

 

And everyone better get used the idea of Suzuki as their everyday starting catcher...

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My premise is that the Twins don't see Pinto as an everyday catcher (just a premise, not a fact); and of course there's risk in making a trade like this. I think the catching pipeline takes a big jump this year with Turner and Navarreto.

 

The Twins were in heavy on Salty so it's safe to say they have some lingering questions about Pinto.

 

And everyone better get used the idea of Suzuki as their everyday starting catcher...

 

I don't agree with the last statement. I think they will split games about evenly, and Pinto will be developed as the starting catcher as the year rolls along. he will be your opening dat catcher in 2015, barring injury. The others you mentioned might be good candidates down the road, but that is at least two years away. If they had signed Salty, then maybe. Not signing Salty means they are counting on Pinto for the forseeable future.

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Let me get this straight. You want to trade away a catcher who crushed the high minors the last two seasons with decent defensive abilities for another weak hitting SS? I'm not convinced Gregorius is even a measurable upgrade over Florimon or Escobar. Who's your catcher for the next few years? Pinto may not be our starter for the next 6 years, but right now he's the ONLY player we have right now who has any chance of it. Can't say the same about our depth at SS. Especially if Aledmys Diaz is on the Twins radar (which looks better now that the Yankees have no interest).

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I don't agree with the last statement. I think they will split games about evenly, and Pinto will be developed as the starting catcher as the year rolls along. he will be your opening dat catcher in 2015, barring injury. The others you mentioned might be good candidates down the road, but that is at least two years away. If they had signed Salty, then maybe. Not signing Salty means they are counting on Pinto for the forseeable future.

 

Pinto is nursing 2 injuries and the acting GM complained about him coming to camp overweight. Not exactly a huge vote of confidence for him heading north out of ST. Plus the braintrust continues to hype Fryer. There's a fighting chance that Pinto plays the first couple months at Rochester.

 

But I'm with you on Pinto playing himself into the starting role by mid-season. And the Twins would think more than twice before they pulled another Wilson Ramos deal.

 

And FWIW, Turner is a 2016 debut under ideal conditions, while Navaretto is probably more like 2018. There is no sudden depth bursting through the Twins catching pipeline that should precipitate such a half-cocked trade like this.

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I'm not sold on Gregorius, either. I don't even know if I'd trade him for Pinto.

 

But Florimon is a bad starter. A very, very bad starter. The guy makes an out over 70% of the time he comes to the plate.

 

No Offense Brock, but most players make an out over 70% of the time.

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No Offense Brock, but most players make an out over 70% of the time.

 

League average last year was 68%. 70% is sub-par, and Florimon was very nearly 72%. Seems small, but if you had a league batting average around .260, we'd all recognize what it means to be .040 above or below.

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No Offense Brock, but most players make an out over 70% of the time.

 

90% of the qualified leaderboard managed an OBP above .300.

 

Drop the minimum PA's to 150 and it's still over 70% of all players.

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My premise is that the Twins don't see Pinto as an everyday catcher (just a premise, not a fact); and of course there's risk in making a trade like this. I think the catching pipeline takes a big jump this year with Turner and Navarreto.

 

The Twins were in heavy on Salty so it's safe to say they have some lingering questions about Pinto.

 

And everyone better get used the idea of Suzuki as their everyday starting catcher...

the addition I would make to your premise is "yet". The Twins don't see Pinto as The a Everyday Catcher yet.

 

i think the interest in Saltalamachia reinforces the Butera rule that the Twins value depth at catcher, don't feel that Pinto is a sure thing yet, and they wanted insurance.

 

When TR didn't land Salty, he went with plan B, the cheap defensive veteran that won't clog the space for Pinto.

 

Look for Pinto to start in AAA, tear it up offensively and improve enough defensively to earn a promotion, and become the primary catcher with the big league club by June.

 

i don't see TR making the trade (even if they could) because of the value placed on depth at catcher.

 

I also wouldn't make the trade, because Pinto is your only decent hitting option he will bring in more runs in 2015 and on, than either of the two SS trade options.

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I think Gregorius (sp) profiles as a pretty good hitting shortstop and he's younger than P-Flo (had to use that!), so I do think it would be an upgrade. The question, to me, is how much value Pinto has. He wasn't regarded as much of a prospect until his last two years, which have been very, very good. I think he can be an above-average regular as soon as this year. If the Twins don't share that opinion and think they can sell (very) high on Josmil, then they should pursue an AZ SS (shooting for Owings, but settling for Gregorius) and offer Pinto as the main piece in exchange.

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I think Gregorius (sp) profiles as a pretty good hitting shortstop and he's younger than P-Flo (had to use that!), so I do think it would be an upgrade. The question, to me, is how much value Pinto has. He wasn't regarded as much of a prospect until his last two years, which have been very, very good. I think he can be an above-average regular as soon as this year. If the Twins don't share that opinion and think they can sell (very) high on Josmil, then they should pursue an AZ SS (shooting for Owings, but settling for Gregorius) and offer Pinto as the main piece in exchange.

 

He's never had an OPS above .800. To me, that doesn't scream "good hitting shortstop." Adequate, at best. He has a career OPS of .705 (minors and majors). By contrast, Florimon has a career OPS of .675 (minors) and .600 (majors). I know nothing about Gregorius' defense, but it is hard for me to believe that it's better than Florimon's. This is not enough of an upgrade to even consider a trade, let alone giving up the immediate future behind the plate and leaving us watching Suzuki and Fryer for the near term.

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