Article: Position Battle: Designated Hitter

[cmathewson]

With our organizational outfield depth being one of our bright spots:

 

Lets fantasize that each prospect and current 25 man roster outfielder reaches their potential. Who are the outfielders of the future? 2017 thru 2022

Oswaldo Arcia

Byron Buxton

Aaron Hicks

Eddie Rosario

Chris Parmelee

Max Kepler

AB Walker

JD Williams

Who provides the best combination (O/D) to win championships?

PICK 4 & Explain why?

 

This seems like another thread altogether. This thread is about 2014. I assume Hicks and Arcia are part of the mix. Parmelee is a possible dark horse, but his two previous opportunities didn't go that well. Buxton is unlikely to see a major league locker room until September at the earliest. Ditto Rosario, and then only if he moves back to the outfield after what looked like a permanent move to second base. Of the others, Kepler has the best chance of ending up in a major league uni. But that is years away, and then as likely at first base as in the outfield.

 

Long term, I dream of an outfield of Rosario (7), Buxton (8) and Hicks (9) with Arcia at DH and Kepler at first base.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'm just surprised that anyone thinks Willingham will even be serviceable in the outfield at this point. He barely was when he was two years younger with healthy knees.I'm not going to draw any coHutunclusions about Hammer's ability to hit at DH because of his numbers in a 450-PA sample at the position, especially when 150 of those plate appearances came last year when he was frequently playing DH because he was hampered by an injury that clearly took a toll on his performance at the plate.

Thus why you might want to play Willingham in LF if the goal is to trade him midseason. Any potential trade partner is likely going to want to know if he can still play defense at 2012 levels, or if he's gotten worse.

[Dantes929]

I agree that you should throw away the stats that say Willingham at DH is a bad idea just because his stats as DH haven't been as good. As pointed out earlier he only DHed full time when he was hurt. Blame the injury rather than the position. Personally, I would like to see Willingham DH, Arcia in right full time, Hicks in center and once Sano gets called up have Kubel and Plouffe platoon in left. Kubel and Plouffe have splits that scream platoon and whoever is left still provides a threat on the bench.

[tobi0040]

This seems like another thread altogether. This thread is about 2014. I assume Hicks and Arcia are part of the mix. Parmelee is a possible dark horse, but his two previous opportunities didn't go that well. Buxton is unlikely to see a major league locker room until September at the earliest. Ditto Rosario, and then only if he moves back to the outfield after what looked like a permanent move to second base. Of the others, Kepler has the best chance of ending up in a major league uni. But that is years away, and then as likely at first base as in the outfield.

 

Long term, I dream of an outfield of Rosario (7), Buxton (8) and Hicks (9) with Arcia at DH and Kepler at first base.

 

I would say Buxton is a near lock at CF, Arcia is a near lock at DH. From there I would like to see Hicks or Rosario, whoever pans out the best in one of the corner spots. The excess traded for pitching or a short stop.

 

The idea of 3 CF's in the outfield sounds great defensively, but I would like one masher in one corner. This is a relatively easy place to find guys on the FA market. Think Cruz 1 year $8M. We can hide the defense to an extent with two CF's next to him.

[Dantes929]

Why are we assuming Willingham goes to the NL? Only a few teams are really strong at DH. Marinez, Butler and Ortiz stand out. Others, not so much.

[tobi0040]

Why are we assuming Willingham goes to the NL? Only a few teams are really strong at DH. Marinez, Butler and Ortiz stand out. Others, not so much.

 

I don't think we are assuming that. But keeping 30 teams in the running versus 15 should help us get a better return.

[Dantes929]

Hicks, Buxton and Rosario all project to have decent power but just as importantly good OBP. Arcia looks to be a decent power hitter and Sano will be the masher. I would expect Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Dozier, Mauer, Pinto, and Hicks to hit at least 10 homers each in a full season with an average more like 15. Add Sano with 30, a shortstop with 10 and about 20 more from the bench. That is pretty decent power. The importance of outfield defense coverage is underrated in my opinion. If Buxton, Rosario and Hicks all pan out I would love to keep them. I will take good power, good OBP and great defense over very good power, ok OBP and mediocre defense any day at any position.

[tobi0040]

Hicks, Buxton and Rosario all project to have decent power but just as importantly good OBP. Arcia looks to be a decent power hitter and Sano will be the masher. I would expect Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Dozier, Mauer, Pinto, and Hicks to hit at least 10 homers each in a full season with an average more like 15. Add Sano with 30, a shortstop with 10 and about 20 more from the bench. That is pretty decent power. The importance of outfield defense coverage is underrated in my opinion. If Buxton, Rosario and Hicks all pan out I would love to keep them. I will take good power, good OBP and great defense over very good power, ok OBP and mediocre defense any day at any position.

 

This lineup does not look like we will hit many HR's. Certainly guys like Buxton or Rosario could develop more power, but the lineup below looks a little HR challenged to me, save Sano and Arcia.

 

 

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier/Polanco

SS - Draft pick or defensive SS

3B - Sano

DH - Arcia

OF - Hicks

CF - Buxton

OF - Rosario

C - Pinto

[Dantes929]

"This lineup does not look like we will hit many HR's. Certainly guys like Buxton or Rosario could develop more power, but the lineup below looks a little HR challenged to me, save Sano and Arcia." Home runs were the closest offensive category the Twins got to league average last year. We were 18th but just 4 below the average. That lineup loses Morneau Willingham and Doumit which had a total of 45 homers. Those are the at bats that Sano, Buxton and Rosario would be replacing. Lets assume Sano doesn't hit 55 himself but can pick up 35. If Buxton and Rosario just hit 10 a piece we are still middle of the pack. I guess with the horrible OBP and strikeout stats of the last couple years as well as the fact that that this team would have good speed and great outfield coverage in a pitcher's park I place a little less emphasis on home runs. In fact, from my point of view, contrary to popular belief the 2013 team was swinging for the fences and trying to pull the ball way too much. That is a big reason the power numbers were ok but the rest of it was absolutely horrible. OBP is king with me and if Sano does hit 35 homers it will be the difference between him having 75 RBI to show for it or 100 RBI.

[jokin]

Nick said it already but I'll try another way: Willingham being in left field is not the same as him being able to play left field. It's not going to fool anyone, in fact, it may actually be illuminating. (In the wrong way for trade value)

 

I don't think anyone is talking about fooling anyone. If someone really needs a bat, it's a question if they would be willing to put up with his obvious inadequacies. Demonstrating his health at this point is more important than demonstrating his competency (or lack thereof).

[jimbo92107]

I don't agree with plugging Willingham in at LF until the deadline. Teams already know that he's slow, got an iron glove, but otherwise has an accurate, average velocity throw to second, cutoff and third. That impression won't change at the trade deadline. In fact, potential trade partners might prefer if the Twins don't wear out Hammer's somewhat vulnerable knees by mid-season.

 

The best technical outfielder of the three is Kubel, by a good margin. He positions himself well, anticipates well, takes good lines, and his arm is very accurate, tho nothing intimidating to a guy rounding first base. Arcia looks to have good potential, but needs a ton of repetitions and needs to work on his footwork throwing. Otherwise he's got very good velocity, and reasonable accuracy, but not as consistently accurate as the other two.

 

I'd go about half and half with Hammer and Kubel at DH, and play Arcia in RF as much as possible. Should be really interesting how things shake out in spring training. If Buxton looks as good then as he did in the minors, why send him down? And if Hicks also has a good spring, then what does that do to the outfield? It would be nice to have two or three legit outfielders for a change. Buxton, Hicks and Arcia. I'd buy a ticket to see that right now.

[Beezer]

I still think that Target Field plays better for the home team with an emphasis on speed and defense. Get on base and steal bases. Old School. It is not a hitters park. Trying to go with boomers is like putting square pegs in round holes. You might be able to pound it in a couple times but doesn't fit very well.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think anyone is talking about fooling anyone. If someone really needs a bat, it's a question if they would be willing to put up with his obvious inadequacies. Demonstrating his health at this point is more important than demonstrating his competency (or lack thereof).

 

Wouldn't DHing him work against your argument? What better way to keep him healthy then to dramatically reduce the number of opportunities he could get hurt by having him only get off the pine 3-4 times to hit?

 

This is especially odd to me since you and a few others in the thread are campaigning for "win now!" as much as possible and then want to trot out a god-awful fielder in the name of a risky gamble for future trade value.

[DocBauer]

I don't agree with plugging Willingham in at LF until the deadline. Teams already know that he's slow, got an iron glove, but otherwise has an accurate, average velocity throw to second, cutoff and third. That impression won't change at the trade deadline. In fact, potential trade partners might prefer if the Twins don't wear out Hammer's somewhat vulnerable knees by mid-season.

 

The best technical outfielder of the three is Kubel, by a good margin. He positions himself well, anticipates well, takes good lines, and his arm is very accurate, tho nothing intimidating to a guy rounding first base. Arcia looks to have good potential, but needs a ton of repetitions and needs to work on his footwork throwing. Otherwise he's got very good velocity, and reasonable accuracy, but not as consistently accurate as the other two.

 

I'd go about half and half with Hammer and Kubel at DH, and play Arcia in RF as much as possible. Should be really interesting how things shake out in spring training. If Buxton looks as good then as he did in the minors, why send him down? And if Hicks also has a good spring, then what does that do to the outfield? It would be nice to have two or three legit outfielders for a change. Buxton, Hicks and Arcia. I'd buy a ticket to see that right now.

 

This actually steals some of my thunder and I agree completely.

 

Any trade partner out there knows Willingham's abilities in the OF. We don't need to showcase that. We need to show his healthy and productive with the bat, and probably rotate him to LF just enough to show he is about what he has always been, and not crippled at this point.

 

I have to ask, marginal a best in the OF and 35, what do people really expect the Twins to receive back in any possible trade? A top 10 prospect for an expiring contract? A top 20 player? I think expectations should be tempered a bit here.

 

Further, the Twins are a better defensive club, and thus a better pitching club, without Willingham in the OF every day. Willingham's time at DH is quite limited. Am I the only one who feels Molitor is perfect to help Willingham along with the transition?

 

And Arcia absolutely has to be in the OF every day. He has some athletic ability and a strong arm. He's WAY too young to be restricted, labeled orpigeon holed at this point.

[Reginald Maudling's Shin]

If Willingham can improve enough to be a decent hitter again then I wouldn't be upset if they kept him instead of trading him, so long as he's not paid over market value. They aren't going to get much in trade value anyway.