Article: Position Battle: Fifth Starter

[Halsey Hall]

Most will disagree with me, but my money is on Pelfrey to lead this rotation. I don't get all the whining about signing him at all. If there's no injuries Deduno takes the 5th spot. Worley or Diamond will come down with hangnails or something to hit the dl. I'm not sure how that works for waivers.

 

Those wanting Gibson again, like last year will be disappointed. He could be trade bait, but I don't see anything special in him. I'd bring up Meyer before considering Gibson. Guess we'll find out sometime this summer.

[Thrylos]

Those wanting Gibson again, like last year will be disappointed. He could be trade bait, but I don't see anything special in him. I'd bring up Meyer before considering Gibson. Guess we'll find out sometime this summer.

 

If you saw Gibson take a no hitter into the ninth with filthy stuff against a very good hitting team away, like I did last summer, I bet your mind might change...

[lee_the_twins_fan]

Diamond will be the 5th starter, IMO.

[twinsnorth49]

And I agree with Thrylos about Pelfrey. Once he hit his stride and before he tuckered out, he was by far the best pitcher on the staff. 2 years after surgery brings me optimism.

 

Ok, technically that is true and I do hope Pelfrey will becomes stronger and more reliable now that he's further removed from TJ, but stating that he hit his stride and was the 2nd best pitcher on that staff is really just saying he was the 2nd least awful starter they had last year, for awhile anyway.

[chuchadoro]

I find it preposterous to complain about too many starting pitching options after last season. It's great that TR isn't banking on Deduno to repeat last year (or be healthy which is yet to proved) or Gibson to be ready, or Diamond to repeat 2012, or every NL soft tosser to be AL caliber. Someone will fail/get injured.

 

Gibson will become a regular starter this season, but at least it doesn't have to be opening day or we can't fill out the roster.

 

I think you might be misconstruing the other side of the issue. It's not having too many options, it's having low-upside options possibly blocking Gibson/Meyer. Most fans won't automatically freak out just because Worley, Deduno or Diamond win the 5th spot. What some of us are worried about is the Twins not taking the best 12 pitchers north just because some guys are out of options.

 

P.S. I might freak out if it's Diamond.

[Dantes929]

I also predict that Pelfrey will be better than Correia, Norasko and Hughes. I don't know about the battle for the 5 spot but will also predict that Meyer will be at the top of the rotation by season end. I am hoping Gibson isn't far behind.

[Dantes929]

"all three are out of options" Are there options besides release, waiver wire or trade? Can the odd one or two simply agree to assignment to the minors even though they are "out of options". After all, they may still figure their best chances are to be patient and work their way on to the Twins staff rather than take their chances trying to break into a better rotation.

[TheLeviathan]

"all three are out of options" Are there options besides release, waiver wire or trade? Can the odd one or two simply agree to assignment to the minors even though they are "out of options". After all, they may still figure their best chances are to be patient and work their way on to the Twins staff rather than take their chances trying to break into a better rotation.

 

They would have to pass through waivers to elect to go to the minors. Given their track records, I think it's highly unlikely that any of them would pass through waivers. It's pretty much three options: we DL them, they make the roster, or they get claimed on waivers. I don't see any other way.

[scottz]

I have been having this discussion with a co-worker for the last couple of weeks. I think - assuming the good health of all arms - that Deduno gets the 5th spot, Worley goes to the pen, and Diamond is the victim of zero options remaining. Like many have said here, the likelihood of my stated assumption seems pretty low, so that scenario probably is irrelevant. But if it comes to be, that my predicted outcome.

 

I feel like they would have stopped their free agent pursuits at 2 signings if they were unprepared to let someone go if they had to. I think no matter what, Deduno is retained, simply because of the 3 out of options, he has the most recent success.

[Kwak]

"all three are out of options" Are there options besides release, waiver wire or trade? Can the odd one or two simply agree to assignment to the minors even though they are "out of options". After all, they may still figure their best chances are to be patient and work their way on to the Twins staff rather than take their chances trying to break into a better rotation.

 

Out of options means that a player must be put on waivers so that another team may claim said player. If unclaimed, he can be outrighted to a minor league affliate or released. Players that have sufficient major leauge service time, if unclaimed, may elect to become a free agent.

[Mike Sixel]

26 is the prime of a career, and is not young. The data is out there.

[Oxtung]

The point is that other than Gibson maybe (and Meyer - whom the Twins will not make super-2 by any means) nobody of those is as good as Pelfrey. And Pelfrey is six and a half months younger than Deduno (for reference.) And if someone is knocking on the door, what they owe Correia will be negligible enough to jettison him mid-season if not performing.

 

Again (as with the centerfield question) the question should be who of this bunch of pitchers will make the Twins a better team if he wins that spot and I think that's Worley, because he has the highest potential of the non-option bunch... Frankly, I think that behind Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey, the Twins would be better off with Worley and Meyer in the last 2 spots, but this is not happening any time soon...

 

And therein lies the crux of the dispute I think and why we won't see eye to eye on this. Many of us see 2014 as a lost season without a chance of contending. Since we believe that to be true all that really matters is who will make this team better in 2015 and beyond. I for one could care less if the Twins win 75 games or 65 this season. In fact I'd probably prefer the 65 where they'll at least get a better draft choice as a reward for the terrible season.

 

I find it preposterous to complain about too many starting pitching options after last season. It's great that TR isn't banking on Deduno to repeat last year (or be healthy which is yet to proved) or Gibson to be ready, or Diamond to repeat 2012, or every NL soft tosser to be AL caliber. Someone will fail/get injured.

 

Gibson will become a regular starter this season, but at least it doesn't have to be opening day or we can't fill out the roster.

 

I don't think anyone would complain about too many starting pitching options if we had say the Cardinals' rotation. That's a great problem to have. On the other hand the Twins only have 1 pitcher that would even get a start in the playoffs for most teams. I fail to see how having six #5 starters is a good thing. I do see how it quickly could become a bad thing though if it prevents a highly touted prospect from coming up and getting a crack at the rotation.

 

Let's not pretend that the Twins will just cut a player because a prospect (say Alex Meyer) is suddenly ready.

[howieramone1406390264]

I don't think anyone would complain about too many starting pitching options if we had say the Cardinals' rotation. That's a great problem to have. On the other hand the Twins only have 1 pitcher that would even get a start in the playoffs for most teams. I fail to see how having six #5 starters is a good thing. I do see how it quickly could become a bad thing though if it prevents a highly touted prospect from coming up and getting a crack at the rotation.

 

Let's not pretend that the Twins will just cut a player because a prospect (say Alex Meyer) is suddenly ready.

 

The Twins don't have six #5 starters, and the next time a highly touted prospect who is deemed ready is blocked, will be the first time.

[jokin]

The Twins don't have six #5 starters, and the next time a highly touted prospect who is deemed ready is blocked, will be the first time.

 

Except for last year, when the "youthful" Kyle Gibson was blocked by the likes of PJ Walters, Cole DeVries and Pedro Hernandez, instead of being called up in May. And Alex Meyer certainly won't be rushed this year, at least not until all the out-of option guys prove whether or not they deserve to be around- I even expect at least one or more of the recent offseason pitching acquisitions and/or Trevor May to get a start before Meyer does.

[TC Stunner]

Nope, not if it takes a month or so. But my money is on the rotation they have and Worley, with Meyer and Gibson watching for at least half a year. If they think that is likely this year, why sign Pelfrey?

 

I think the Pelfrey signing was a good one. He's now a year removed from TJ surgery. If he pitches like he did before the injury the Twins got him at a bargain and could potential trade him for a decent piece. If he struggles again then the Twins don't have that much invested in him. I personally think he's gonna flourish this year. As far as the 5th spot goes, I think its Diamond's to lose. The Twins want at least one lefty in the rotation so if all 3 pitch similarly I think Diamond gets the spot.

[Riverbrian]

Unless his shoulder is gimpy... Deduno is the 5th guy and potentially the 1st guy.

[jokin]

The Twins don't have six #5 starters, and the next time a highly touted prospect who is deemed ready is blocked, will be the first time.

 

Unless his shoulder is gimpy... Deduno is the 5th guy and potentially the 1st guy.

 

Nolasco's potential post-season start was nixed by the Dodgers- is Correia much more likely to get that start? And not to put words in Ox's mouth, but based on last year's numbers, Hughes, Pelfrey, Worley, Diamond have to actually improve to be rated as #5 starter-level,

 

Deduno has to stay healthy for a full season to be considered better than a #5/spot starter, while Correia left Pittsburgh because he lost out the #5 starter spot with the Pirates.

 

That's the 6 guys I think Oxtung is referring to- with good reason.

[Paul Pleiss]

If Deduno is heathy I just don't see Worley or Diamond taking that 5th spot, and it sounds like Deduno is going to be healthy. I like Diamond better out of the pen than Worley, but I'd hate to lose either to waivers. Hopefully full rosters prevent either from getting claimed if it comes to that.

[johnnydakota]

Pelfrey to the pen and DeDuno or Worley get the 4th spot, while Gibson and the rest battle it out for the remaining spot

[PseudoSABR]

26 is the prime of a career, and is not young. The data is out there.

That's totally bunk. Rookies begin typically begin 23-25, with Twins being the most conservative, so add an extra year of development. As this article shows the prime age for baseball players is anywhere between 27 and 31.

 

Add in the context of injury and a college player, well, Gibson is hardly in his "prime."

 

As you say, the data is out there. Are you actually doing the research? Or just looking for what confirms your assumptions? I don't mean to be harsh, but as far as digging through the numbers, you're not exactly proving your diligence.

[old nurse]

Except for last year, when the "youthful" Kyle Gibson was blocked by the likes of PJ Walters, Cole DeVries and Pedro Hernandez, instead of being called up in May. And Alex Meyer certainly won't be rushed this year, at least not until all the out-of option guys prove whether or not they deserve to be around- I even expect at least one or more of the recent offseason pitching acquisitions and/or Trevor May to get a start before Meyer does.

 

You are correct in that PJ Walters and Pedro Hernandez were on the roster for parts of May last year. When Gibson finally did get to the majors, what in Gibson's performance said that it was a mistake to leave him down there?

That he pitched good games with good results is not an excuse. Liam Hendricks has done the same.

[TheLeviathan]

Pelfrey to the pen and DeDuno or Worley get the 4th spot, while Gibson and the rest battle it out for the remaining spot

 

I have zero confidence the Twins will give a rookie a spot over a well compensated veteran. No matter what the performances are and that's a huge part of the problem: this isn't going to be a true competition for 2 or 3 slots. 4 will be gifted and you can make a case that only one really deserves it.

[howieramone1406390264]

I have zero confidence the Twins will give a rookie a spot over a well compensated veteran. No matter what the performances are and that's a huge part of the problem: this isn't going to be a true competition for 2 or 3 slots. 4 will be gifted and you can make a case that only one really deserves it.

 

Who wants true competition? I think most teams would much prefer to have all 5 starting pitchers set prior to ST. I would like to hear a case, that only one of Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, and Pelfrey deserve a spot in the starting rotation.

[cmathewson]

According to reports from For Myers, Deduno is throwing bullpens at full speed. If so, he has to be the favorite. His numbers last year were actully much better than the 3+ Era suggests. He hurt his shoulder in August and continued to pitch with it for a few games. Prior to that, his ERA was sub 3. He's the only one of the the three who gets easy outs, which will be hard to come by in 2014.

[thetank]

The Twins don't have six #5 starters, and the next time a highly touted prospect who is deemed ready is blocked, will be the first time.

I wonder if the Twins will wait until July so Meyers wouldn't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2017 season.

[cmathewson]

You are correct in that PJ Walters and Pedro Hernandez were on the roster for parts of May last year. When Gibson finally did get to the majors, what in Gibson's performance said that it was a mistake to leave him down there?

That he pitched good games with good results is not an excuse. Liam Hendricks has done the same.

 

Liam Hendriks pitched exactly two games with good results, over a three- year span in which he received six opportunities and dozens of starts. Gibson's debut was short and spotty. Coming off of elbow surgery, he was nearing his innings limit by the time he was called up. He pitched his best innings in the minors, when his arm was still fresh.

 

Last year was his year to build arm strength. This year is his year to produce. They will find a way to make that happen by May at the latest

.

[jokin]

Liam Hendriks pitched exactly two games with good results, over a three- year span in which he received six opportunities and dozens of starts. Gibson's debut was short and spotty. Coming off of elbow surgery, he was nearing his innings limit by the time he was called up. He pitched his best innings in the minors, when his arm was still fresh.

 

Last year was his year to build arm strength. This year is his year to produce. They will find a way to make that happen by May at the latest

.

 

Bingo! Once Gibson passed the arb date,in May, it made absolutely no sense for him to waste his best remaining innings in AAA. He builds his arm strength in the majors in May, he also learns more about what will and won't work for him. Putting Pelphrey on a AAA rehab assignment and replacing him with Gibson last May also would have been another possible wise move. It seems a little spendthriftingly shortsighted to hold Gibson back just to avoid potential Super 2 status.

[jokin]

I wonder if the Twins will wait until July so Meyers wouldn't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2017 season.

 

Isn't the arb date some time in May, with the Super 2 date determined some time in June based on compiling all of the possible Super 2 candidates? (Much like Gibson last year).

[birddog]

I'm hoping it will be Deduno. Sure he had way too many walks, but he had the stuff to get himself out of jams. I love the movement of his pitches as players can't dig in on him. If Diamond is off by an inch, it gets pounded. Worley was not regarded as a big-time prospect in Philly and I'm afraid his good years will prove to be more aberrations than the norm. I also agree that Swarzak should be given at least a shot at starting. We all have to remember that we're not talking dominant, get-back-in-contention starting pitching here. Nolasco and Hughes have the ability to be decent #3 starters, but until we get the young studs up here playing .500 ball is the biggest dream Twins fans can have. And the scary thing is the pitching appears to be better than our hitting this year. 2015 can't get here soon enough for me.

[Boom Boom]

Gibson has to get a long look in the majors this year. Did you know he's only one month younger than Worley?

 

Whatever a player's prime age is, Gibson is rapidly approaching it, and there's not much else he can do in the minors to show that he's ready.