Article: 2014 Draft Board v.1.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2682-2014-Draft-Board-v-1-0

[howieramone1406390264]

Wow! Great job.

[gunnarthor]

I think the best scenario goes something like this - Astros - Rodon, Marlins - to save money take someone like Toussant. White Sox take Hoffman. Cubs take Beede and lets the Twins grab Kolek.

 

I don't think this draft will produce 4 #1 college pitchers and no college bat is exciting enough to take that early. So the Twins best case is getting the top HS arm (again). But the HS season will certainly change some perceptions.

[Wookiee of the Year]

My thinking right now is that I want shortstop Trae Turner to be the best player available at #5. We have a real dearth of middle infielders in the system right now, and he has the potential to be a real shot in the arm for the system. I'm also skeptical of taking the third- or fourth-best college arm, although maybe that's illogical.

 

This far out, I'm definitely still thinking more about who I want to be the logical pick for us rather than who will be the logical pick for us. It feels too early for me to wrap my head around these players' actual abilities.

[Nate Haseman]

How much farther down this list is Schwarberg from Indiana?

[Monkeypaws]

Great great write-up.

 

When I think college SS, I think Nomar Garciaparra. It can happen.

[nfisch22]

Schwarber I believe would be a ways down. Everything I've read is that he probably moves to 1B or the OF or even DH. His value is definitely in the bat... That being said I think a name you're gonna see sneak up draft boards is Brady Aiken, HS lefty out of California. Very similar to Max Fried from 2012 but Aiken looks to be a little bit more physically mature than Fried was at the same stage.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Schwarber is lower than Pentecost, who's not currently in the mix.

 

Both Aiken and Toussaint could make moves.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given that up until this week we still had a foot of snow on the ground here in Indy, I'm still trying to wrap my head around baseball starting.

 

That said, I have to think at 5 the Twins will want highest upside. I'd look at Gatewood or Kolek personally unless by some miracle Hoffman or Rodon fall. Got to say that Turner doesn't excite me unless he suddenly shows the ability to hit for some power.

[beckmt]

Would also take Kolek, unless something changes this spring, seems to me to be at worst a closer.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

The Levi Michael comparison will probably keep coming up as long as there is speculation about the Twins drafting Turner. I think it's worth noting that Michael was something like the 30th pick in his draft. If Turner has a reasonable case as BPA at the 5th pick in 2014 (and if he doesn't, I can't see the Twins reaching down for him with that high a pick), then he's in a different class than Michael and can be considered a surer thing.

[tobi0040]

The Levi Michael comparison will probably keep coming up as long as there is speculation about the Twins drafting Turner. I think it's worth noting that Michael was something like the 30th pick in his draft. If Turner has a reasonable case as BPA at the 5th pick in 2014 (and if he doesn't, I can't see the Twins reaching down for him with that high a pick), then he's in a different class than Michael and can be considered a surer thing.

 

I think the Turner/Michael comps will come. Here are their college stats. The glaring difference is speed. Turner is an 80 speed guy. His freshman SB total is probably a better reflection given he had an ankle issue last year. He is 5-5 in SB attempts this year in just 4 games.

 

Regardig his defense, I read Turner should stay at SS, has the footwork, range, and arm.

 

Trae Turner

 

Freshman - .338 average, 5 HR, .891 OPS, 57 SB

Sophomore - .368 average, 7 HR, 1.008 OPS, 30 SB

 

Levi Michael

 

Freshman - .290 avg, 13 HR, .909 OPS, 5 SB

Sophomore - .346 avg, 9 HR, 1.059 OPS, 20 SB

Junior - .305 avg, 4 HR, .911 OPS, 14 SB

 

I would be very happy with Turner or one of the flamethrowing guys like Kolek or Hoffman.

[Dman]

I am hoping the BPA is a pitcher at #5 and I also hope they take a pitcher with the #2 pick. I think we have enough position players coming up that we should be OK there with the exception of shortstop. I think we can handle one area on the field that is built more around defense than offense there. Better to focus on pitching and if they all turn out and you have excess excellent pitching then trade a pitcher for a shortstop. I really think they should keep pounding the pitching in the draft as we never compete to buy great pitchers in the FA market. We need to have as many guys who can be potential aces as possible as they fail at such a high rate. We need excellent pitching to compete in our division and beyond. Please oh, please, please find a good pitcher at #5.

[Mike Sixel]

If Turner is in the discussion as one of the 10 best players, that is a very different conversation than was occurring with Michael. It's just not a realistic comparison, imo. I'd be happy for him to be great this year. It means they either get him, or a pitcher falls because someone else took him. Win. Win.

[Seth Stohs]

Would you be gun-shy about making the same mistake that was made when Levi Michael was drafted? Would you trust that same signing scout? Interesting questions to consider, obviously, and while I think they are two completely different players, the microscope will be fixed closer on Trae Turner.

 

I wouldn't worry at all about the scout. I woudln't have any thoughts about Michael with this pick. It's very silly to do so. However, the scouting reports, as I read them, for Michael reminded me of Nick Punto. At #30, that's not so bad... At #5 overall, that is not the scouting report I would want to read. I'm with those who say Kolek is the direction... At least that type of player where there is a ton of upside!

[tobi0040]

If Turner is in the discussion as one of the 10 best players, that is a very different conversation than was occurring with Michael. It's just not a realistic comparison, imo. I'd be happy for him to be great this year. It means they either get him, or a pitcher falls because someone else took him. Win. Win.

 

Agreed on the comp, Turner looks much more promising.

[Ozziedavisfan]

I'm hoping Jackson,Turner, or Kolek either one I would be happy with. When I think college SS I think tulo, but their alway the grant green of the world to worry about.

[jmlease1]

I'm interested in both Jackson & Turner.

 

If Jackson can stick at catcher with a plus bat, he'd be a nice fit for the system and with Pinto looking like a MLB-quality player the team could give him time to really learn the position and develop his bat. Love to know more about him and whether or not people think he's the real deal.

 

Turner doesn't look like a Levi Michael type to me and SS is a position where you can never have too many prospects. I like the speed and if the bat is legit he could do really well.

[2wins87]

Great info, I've been looking forward to this.

 

Luke Weaver is definitely the most surprising name on the list, but was ranked 5th by Big League Futures back in September, so he hasn't gone completely without notice. He reportedly hit 97 over the summer (I don't remember where that was reported but it was reputable), though most reports have had him as a low 90s fastball guy. If that bumps into the mid 90s with plus command I can see him being ranked that high.

[tobi0040]

I'm interested in both Jackson & Turner.

 

If Jackson can stick at catcher with a plus bat, he'd be a nice fit for the system and with Pinto looking like a MLB-quality player the team could give him time to really learn the position and develop his bat..

 

I think it was Keith Law that said Jackson wants to move out from catcher.

[gunnarthor]

From Callis' inbox:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article//pipeline-inbox-wholl-be-top-prospect-at-each-level?ymd=20140221&content_id=68046312

 

"Of the current top 15 Draft prospects, who can make the biggest jump based on what they show this year?

-- Tory J., Tampa, Fla.

 

Gainesville (Ga.) High School outfielder Michael Gettys immediately jumps to mind. For the third straight year, the most electric high school talent is a prep outfielder from the Peach State, with Gettys following Buxton (2012), Frazier and Meadows (2013).

Gettys posted some eye-popping numbers at the Perfect Game National Showcase last June, running the 60-yard dash in 6.43 seconds, uncorking a throw clocked at 100 mph from the outfield and working at 91-94 mph off the mound. If he were solely a pitcher, he'd be an early-round prospect, but he'll get drafted as an outfielder.

The big question is how much Gettys will hit. He has a lot of bat speed and raw power, but he swings and misses more than he should and has struggled against quality breaking pitches.

We rated Gettys as the 10th-best Draft prospect coming into the year. If he were to somehow answer all of the questions about his bat, he'd go near the very top of the Draft and likely would be the first high school player drafted."

 

Big, toolsy OF from GA. Seems like a Twins type.

[nicksaviking]

Kolek and Gatewood are the two that strike me as having the highest ceilings at this point and that's what I prefer. Still, like the last two years, being the first team to pick a US HS kid has it's drawbacks, specifically being much less able to go after the tough sign HS kids in round two.

 

My heart says high upside HS kid right now, but my brain is hoping for the BPA to be an easy sign college guy.

 

Also, while Hoffman has the profile similar to Jonathan Gray, I think his path appears more like Sean Manaea. Gray didn't move up the rankings until later in the spring, it was Manaea who got the huge boost from the Cape Cod League. I'd think this year's Gray is a lower ranked guy right now. My preseason pick was Michael Cederoth though he didn't fare too well in his first start.

[chuchadoro]

The Turner-Michael comp is unfair but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've read about Turner so far. "He's really fast and will likely stick at SS" is just about all I've heard on him. Having wheels is great but it's often the tool that first abandons a player. There is also a big difference between sticking at SS and being a plus defender at the position. I'm not saying Trea won't be good defensively. I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender". I also haven't heard much about his hit tool. If Turner projects as an above-average defender with a decent shot at .270/.350/.375, I'd gladly take it. My uninformed opinion has me in the Kolek camp right now, though.

[markos]

I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender".

 

It seems like every draft candidate or prospect in the minors gets overrated defensively (some more than others), and their defensive ability (if they do have it) can deteriorate quickly. As just one example, are some of the defensive quote about Arcia from Baseball Prospectus over the past few years:

 

2011:

He's a good athlete for his size and has good outfield instincts.

 

2012:

He's not special in the outfield, but hardly a liability

 

2013:

arm is at least solid-average; will play in right field. Good athlete for his size, but lacks average run; limited to a corner spot

 

Based on my observations (and backed by some of the defensive metrics), it turns out that Arcia was one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of baseball last season. Also, consider the players that the Twins selected to play shortstop over the past few years - Dozier, Plouffe, Nishioka. It became very apparent very quickly that they were unable to handle the position.

 

Long story short, I drop every prospect at least a step from the scouting reports. Shortstop projected to be average? Then I think he is probably terrible and not really a shortstop. Plus centerfielder? Hopefully will be average in the majors. For me, the kiss of death for a prospect defensively is "he should be able to handle/stick at the position."

 

Regarding Turner defensively, I'm starting to think of Billy Hamilton. Hamilton also started off as a shortstop, but despite world-class speed, has had to move to the outfield. If there are any doubts about Turner staying at shortstop, that is a huge red flag for me.

[2wins87]

Turner is new to being a SS (he was at 3B his Freshman year) so I think a lot of the reports will be a bit conservative, but I've read a few that say he should be at least an above average defender.

He's one of the most all-around athletic players in the draft.

[tobi0040]

The Turner-Michael comp is unfair but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've read about Turner so far. "He's really fast and will likely stick at SS" is just about all I've heard on him. Having wheels is great but it's often the tool that first abandons a player. There is also a big difference between sticking at SS and being a plus defender at the position. I'm not saying Trea won't be good defensively. I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender". I also haven't heard much about his hit tool. If Turner projects as an above-average defender with a decent shot at .270/.350/.375, I'd gladly take it. My uninformed opinion has me in the Kolek camp right now, though.

 

I agree that if Turner is just average defensively or is not a lock to stick at SS, you want to take a SP with 98+ gas.

[drock2190]

No to Turner. Not a fan of players who's best tool is speed.

 

I'm hoping Kolek will be there as he seems like the high upside arm that the Twins could use.

[nicksaviking]

No to Turner. Not a fan of players who's best tool is speed.

 

I'm hoping Kolek will be there as he seems like the high upside arm that the Twins could use.

 

His best tool being speed doesn't bother me, after all most would say that's Buxton's best tool.

 

My problem is that it's questionable he has other tools. Even if his defense was superb it's not enough for me. They need to have 4-5 tools at the #5 pick because too often one or two of the tools just aren't as great as advertised. If you only have two tools (OK three, but arm strength really goes with defense, no one is considered a great defensive player if their arm stinks) you have to hit on both tools. Elvis Andrus is a speedy defensive guy, but he's not a great hitter and has no power. Had his defense or speed not developed, he'd be a bust, there's just no margin of error with guys with only one or two strong tools and nothing else.

[maxisagod]

Cease and Marshall seem like inbetweeners to me. Guys who will never break the top five of any board, but very unlikely to fall to the 2nd round. Kind of like Resse McGuire last year, A guy the Twins would have grabbed if they were a little lower in the draft. If there was trading picks in the draft, I'd give them both a better look, otherwise I don't like hoping for a kid's stock and future to skydive down during the season, just so the Twins can grab one of them later (Like Eades and Gonsalves last year).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I never compared Michael and Turner - in fact I called them very different players - but I did draw parallels, fair or not.