Four Twins Make BA's Top 100

[Seth Stohs]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-baseball-america-top-100-prospects-free/

 

Tonight, Baseball America released its Top 100 prospects.

 

To no surprise, Byron Buxton completed his tour of all major publications with yet another #1 overall ranking. Miguel Sano ranked #6. Alex Meyer came in at 45, and Kohl Stewart was #52.

 

Mike Berardino did the Twins rankings. He had JO Berrios at #6, followed by Eddie Rosario and Lewis Thorpe.

 

Feel free to discuss.

[cmb0252]

First, their prospect special was a waste of time. John Hart talked WAY too much. He spent freaking 5 minutes on Tanaka who has been talked to death already. John Hart is MLB Networks version of ESPN's Jim Bowden.

 

After following BA for many years I do have to say this list was awful. I'm not just saying that as a Twins fan. Im saying this as a BA fan. A ton of red Sox love. Heck, 4 white Sox made the list and most experts have them as a bottom 3 farm system. I could keep going but these things are all opinions anyways. Since Jim Callis left the quality of all non-college related coverage seems to have gone down.

[gunnarthor]

I sorta agree with CMB. Callis' move really helps MLB.com's list (and I was already a fan of Mayo - he had to have one). Cooper and the others at BA are going to need some time to get up to speed and make their list solid again. But, on the other hand, maybe they are trying to be a bit unconventional? They were the only ones who ranked Tanaka and Abreu, I believe. Not completely sure.

 

As to the Twins not making the list - Rosario's drug suspension has to have hurt him some and there still is legit questions about his position. Berrios is probably in the 100-120 region. Pinto, I thought, might make it as his floor - avg ML starting catcher - is fairly safe but his ceiling is limited. His omission was the biggest surprise to me. Thorpe will (hopefully) be on it next year. Will there be a chat about it? And if someone could start a thread (or put it in this one) of where the various rankings - BA, BP, ESPN, fangraphs, etc had some guys, I'd like to see that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Heck, 4 white Sox made the list and most experts have them as a bottom 3 farm system.

 

The top White Sox prospect on the list is the Cuban Jose Abreu, the next one is Erik Johnson who has already had an impressive MLB debut. Then its 3B Matt Davidson, who was just acquired from Arizona and has been a top 100 prospect every year of his pro career thus far, and finally Marcus Semien, a 6th round pick from 2011 who has rocketed thru the system, showing a solid bat while playing SS, 2B, and 3B.

 

Those all seem pretty reasonable (and to White Sox detractors, note that outside of the Cuban Abreu, all of them have already debuted in MLB).

[bird]

here's what I have:

 

ESPN, MLB, BA, BPRO, SICKLES, FANGRAPH, in order:

 

Buxton # 1 in all 6

Sano: 8,3,6,14,3,10

Meyer: 62,36,45,32,51,36

Stewart: 76,66,52,54, NR, 36

Rosario: 49,68,NR,60,56,NR

Berrios: NR,85,NR,75,127,NR

 

Thorpe's only rating came from BPRO at 101

Pinto's only rating, also from BPRO at 56

Kepler is the only other prospect I've see rated by anyone.

[bird]

The top White Sox prospect on the list is the Cuban Jose Abreu, the next one is Erik Johnson who has already had an impressive MLB debut. Then its 3B Matt Davidson, who was just acquired from Arizona and has been a top 100 prospect every year of his pro career thus far, and finally Marcus Semien, a 6th round pick from 2011 who has rocketed thru the system, showing a solid bat while playing SS, 2B, and 3B.

 

Those all seem pretty reasonable (and to White Sox detractors, note that outside of the Cuban Abreu, all of them have already debuted in MLB).

 

The Sox's system is probably being slightly underrated. Part of that is because most publications opted to exclude Cuban defector Abreu and because Davidson just came over, and also because Erik Johnson somehow seems to stay in the shadow a bit. But still, it's at best a mediocre system and much worse than ours and KC's, about even with Clevelands and better than Detroit's.

 

I think all these publicationd discount depth quite a bit and place a premium on elite talent, which makes sense.

[Badsmerf]

A drug suspension shouldn't keep Rosario out of the rankings, that is stupid. He is a big-time prospect that gets overlooked with Buxton and Sano in the same system. What a joke. The only prospects I expect to graduate from this list are Meyer and Sano. Buxton, Stewart, Rosario, Berrios, Thorpe, Kepler, Gonsalves, Jorge, Polanco (and the 5th draft choice 2014) all could be on the radar next year at this time.

[Seth Stohs]

A drug suspension shouldn't keep Rosario out of the rankings, that is stupid.

 

I agree, though I don't know that as the reason he isn't on this Top 100 list. Remember, in BA's Top 10 Twins prospect list, Berrios ranked 5th with Rosario 6th.

 

The 50 game suspension brings about some concerns, but it's not injury, and he can still rake... He's no less a prospect because of the suspension (in my opinion)...

[gunnarthor]

A drug suspension shouldn't keep Rosario out of the rankings, that is stupid. He is a big-time prospect that gets overlooked with Buxton and Sano in the same system. What a joke. The only prospects I expect to graduate from this list are Meyer and Sano. Buxton, Stewart, Rosario, Berrios, Thorpe, Kepler, Gonsalves, Jorge, Polanco (and the 5th draft choice 2014) all could be on the radar next year at this time.

 

I don't think he's a big time prospect. He's a nice prospect but has legitimate question marks. He might end up a utility guy who backs up several positions.

[cmb0252]

From BA's top 100 chat (which is currently still going on)

 

 

• Would you rather have Correa, McCullers Jr., and Ruiz or Buxton?
  

 

Ben Badler: I love Correa, but Buxton, easily.

 

• Byron Buxton (Minnesota): What is my ceiling and what is my floor? Am I bound to be an Upton or a Griffey Jr. ?
  

 

Ben Badler: The ceiling is a potential Hall of Famer. That takes great health and longevity to get there, but it's five legitimate plus or better tools, 80 speed and potential 80 bat and glove at a premium position with an advanced approach for his age. What's incredible about Buxton is just how few holes there are in his game. With someone like Bogaerts, you can nitpick and say that he's not going to be great defensively at shortstop, Sano has swing-and-miss concerns, Lindor has question marks on the power, even though they all could be stars. WIth Buxton, he just doesn't have many holes to even nitpick about. As long as he stays healthy, I would be stunned if he doesn't turn into a superstar.

 

• How many SP in the top 100 have true #1 potential? Are there any out of the top 100 that are just too raw?
  

 

Ben Badler: I see about eight or nine guys who have that potential where you can see them as a No. 1 starter without having to squint too hard, guys like Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker, Robert Stephenson, Jonathan Gray. And I wouldn't include Julio Urias or Kohl Stewart in that group yet, but there's enough uncertainty around their projections right now that we could be looking at them as potential No. 1s in a year.

• The Twins are number 3 by organization according to the book, but only 4 guys in the top 100. How does that work out, all the others in the top 5 have 6 0r 7 guys.
  

 

Matt Eddy: For me it boils down to the impact potential of the Twins' very best prospects. Buxton is the best talent in the game, a potential MVP in the making, while Sano has as much power as anybody in professional baseball. Meyer has an interesting blend of stuff and performance, while Kohl Stewart ranked as the top prep arm for the 2013 draft. When you factor in the relative safety of position prospects, the Twins look even better with Nos. 1 and 6 overall.

 

• Did the drug suspension knock Eddie Rosario off the list or was he not in there to begin with?
  

 

Matt Eddy: Rosario fell just outside the Top 100. I think he was on half the ballots, but not particularly high on the other half.

Here is a link to the full chat:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1392846892

 

[gunnarthor]

Thanks for posting that, cmb.

[cmathewson]

I don't think he's a big time prospect. He's a nice prospect but has legitimate question marks. He might end up a utility guy who backs up several positions.

 

He's arguably the best pure hitter in the system. Those guys don't tend to end up as utility players. They'll find a position for him to play everyday and hit behind Buxton and ahead of Mauer.

[gunnarthor]

He's arguably the best pure hitter in the system. Those guys don't tend to end up as utility players. They'll find a position for him to play everyday and hit behind Buxton and ahead of Mauer.

 

That would be a heck of an argument. Buxton got a 70 grade hit tool from Callis/Mayo and BA ranked him the best hit tool in the system. Rosario might be a 55-60 hit but he might be less. And if he can't stick at second, his bat might be a bit weak for a corner OF spot because he isn't a power hitter. I suspect that the rankers that are down on him - as the BA chat alluded to - see him as a 'tweener' without a position. Hopefully he can stick at second but he's not a sure thing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's arguably the best pure hitter in the system. Those guys don't tend to end up as utility players. They'll find a position for him to play everyday and hit behind Buxton and ahead of Mauer.

 

"Pure hitter" is one of those odd terms. Doesn't really mean best hitter, usually it means most consistent batting average hitter.

 

Not a bad skill, but without some other skills (power/OBP/speed/defense), those kind of players generally don't stick in the top 100 prospect lists, and they can absolutely end up as utility guys. Brendan Harris was once a pretty good "pure hitter" in the minor leagues too, and reached AA just a few months older than Rosario.

[Oxtung]

here's what I have:

 

ESPN, MLB, BA, BPRO, SICKLES, FANGRAPH, in order:

 

Buxton # 1 in all 6

Sano: 8,3,6,14,3,10

Meyer: 62,36,45,32,51,36

Stewart: 76,66,52,54, NR, 36

Rosario: 49,68,NR,60,56,NR

Berrios: NR,85,NR,75,127,NR

 

Thorpe's only rating came from BPRO at 101

Pinto's only rating, also from BPRO at 56

Kepler is the only other prospect I've see rated by anyone.

 

What list of Sickles are you using? In his response to the BA top 100 list he says:

...keeping in mind that my own list is at least a few weeks from completion and I still have hundreds of players to analyze...

[bird]

Sickles' is the only one not updated from last year, I believe.

[scottz]

I love prospect lists because I get to see what people who pay attention to this stuff (many as an occupation) think of players I probably have never seen play or even heard of. Generally, if many of them rank Twins players pretty highly, then that's a good thing although it's hard not to imagine that there is a certain momentum involved that elevates some players simply because they are being discussed by other groups and being placed higher on other prospect lists. The flip side of that is that I also tend to think that if a player doesn't get into that same discussion and doesn't factor highly on one list, then he might tend to hover around the same spot or fall on the next list, and the next and the next.

 

So if Rosario doesn't rank as highly on a given list as Twins fans would like to think of him, it doesn't change him as a player. It certainly wouldn't change him within his organization. Maybe the suspension thing changes his status in the organization slightly - if you made the same mistake twice, and the second one impacted the amount of work you could do for your employer, your status might change. But lists? They don't matter, other than for entertainment purposes.

 

I kind of like that Rosario is a bit lower ranked than *I* would like. Because I think he's going to rake. How fun will it be to hear some of the talking heads someday say, "we all knew about Buxton and Sano, but where did this Rosario kid come from - he's the real deal!" And then we can all nod and smile and say, "we knew it all along."