Mystery teams in on Drew

[Major League Ready]

I think it comes down to how much you value an extra win or perhaps two this season. In other words, would you give up to go from somewhere around 72 wins to 73 or 74. Drew is a bridge to a better player. Unfortunately, signing him could preempt an international signing or trade that would solidy this position long-term. I would hope our GM is focused on building a winner. Giving up a pick, even a high 2nd rounder for a stop gap player is not consistent with an emphasis on building a winner.

[jokin]

I think it comes down to how much you value an extra win or perhaps two this season. In other words, would you give up to go from somewhere around 72 wins to 73 or 74. Drew is a bridge to a better player. Unfortunately, signing him could preempt an international signing or trade that would solidy this position long-term. I would hope our GM is focused on building a winner. Giving up a pick, even a high 2nd rounder for a stop gap player is not consistent with an emphasis on building a winner.

 

I actually have also predicted 72 wins this season. I take issue with your characterization that the Twins only stand to gain a win or two....or are giving anything up to sign Drew. His signing should pre-empt no potential additional signings or trade- veterans coming off the payroll during this year and next defray much of the cost of signing Drew- and the Twins potential resources are still not close to being fully tapped- Pohlad himself has said that spending to get better sooner is a club priority. And actually, acquiring Drew should give you MORE trade options- as Drew is potentially far more valuable than a mere stop-gap player...... Drew's skill set means it's possible to trade a somewhat unique and solid left-handed, RHP-murdering batting SS at some point for a prospect farther along in potential than a lost 2nd round speculative draft pick.

 

I too, hope our GM is focused on building a winner. Respect for the paying fan by putting more legitimate major leaguers on the field and an obvious effort at eliminating the AAAA types that populate this roster all-too-frequently is sorely needed- the fan base is quickly dissipating at an alarming rate. Having a real MLB SS on hand for the next 2 years gives you at least a decent shot at being a fringe contender in 2015 when the lineup and rotation turn over to the real prospects and perhaps another FA SP. Add a mutual option for 2016, and it gives you further flexibility for if/when that international SS FA signee/draft pick/trade target....is available or ready to assume the role- while giving the team a better chance at "winning" now, while we wait- that should also be the GM's focus, as well.

[Paul]

I think it comes down to how much you value an extra win or perhaps two this season. ...

 

This exact sentiment is what really chaps my hide about WAR, which I'll be the first to admit I do not fully understand. But is it that incomprehensible that having a plus plus SS in place of Florimon could add far more wins than 1 or 2? I don't know what kind of guy, or what the quality of Drew's character is, but the SS position is normally a leadership position. I'm not sure how to quantify this, but competency on both sides of the ball coupled with character, and confident leadership from that position can make a tremendous difference in the outcome of games. It's the synergy from a close knit team pushing in the same direction that tips the scale and wins games. I don't know if Drew is the guy to fill that void but, I do know most people continue to mature so he might be. Unless the team has already established he's a negative in this regard, from my perspective this is a golden opportunity to find out if he can. Because it's so much easier to lead from a plus plus status means he's already half way there. Like with a putt, if you don't hit it hard enough it ain't got a chance.

[TheLeviathan]

Drew should give you MORE trade options- as Drew is potentially far more valuable than a mere stop-gap player...... Drew's skill set means it's possible to trade a somewhat unique and solid left-handed, RHP-murdering batting SS at some point for a prospect farther along in potential than a lost 2nd round speculative draft pick.

 

I find the prospect of him being a highly sought after trade piece a bit dubious considering he can't get a contract to play for anyone right now.

[Guest USAFChief]

I think it comes down to how much you value an extra win or perhaps two this season. In other words, would you give up to go from somewhere around 72 wins to 73 or 74. Drew is a bridge to a better player. Unfortunately, signing him could preempt an international signing or trade that would solidy this position long-term. I would hope our GM is focused on building a winner. Giving up a pick, even a high 2nd rounder for a stop gap player is not consistent with an emphasis on building a winner.

A second round pick is not consistent with building a winner, at least not for the next half decade.

 

You build a winner by putting better baseball players on the major league roster.

[jorgenswest]

What about Escobar?

 

Drew doesn't project well. Over the next three years, he is projected (Oliver per fangraphs) for the same WAR as Escobar with Drews declining and Escobar increasing slightly.

 

Projecting three years and even next year is difficult but the projection methods produce better results than using the previous year to project the next year.

 

While both are projected at 4.9 WAR over the next three years, Drew is more certain to be at that mediocre level. Escobar may never get the chance, not improve or he may take a step with his bat to go with the glove and exceed that level.

 

The Twins sign Drew and they will likely need to DFA Escobar and any upside. That's fine if they get 2.5-3 WAR per year over the contract. Is that reasonable in a shortstop on the wrong side of the aging curve?

[Marta Shearing]

I actually have also predicted 72 wins this season. I take issue with your characterization that the Twins only stand to gain a win or two....or are giving anything up to sign Drew. His signing should pre-empt no potential additional signings or trade- veterans coming off the payroll during this year and next defray much of the cost of signing Drew- and the Twins potential resources are still not close to being fully tapped- Pohlad himself has said that spending to get better sooner is a club priority. And actually, acquiring Drew should give you MORE trade options- as Drew is potentially far more valuable than a mere stop-gap player...... Drew's skill set means it's possible to trade a somewhat unique and solid left-handed, RHP-murdering batting SS at some point for a prospect farther along in potential than a lost 2nd round speculative draft pick.

 

I too, hope our GM is focused on building a winner. Respect for the paying fan by putting more legitimate major leaguers on the field and an obvious effort at eliminating the AAAA types that populate this roster all-too-frequently is sorely needed- the fan base is quickly dissipating at an alarming rate. Having a real MLB SS on hand for the next 2 years gives you at least a decent shot at being a fringe contender in 2015 when the lineup and rotation turn over to the real prospects and perhaps another FA SP. Add a mutual option for 2016, and it gives you further flexibility for if/when that international SS FA signee/draft pick/trade target....is available or ready to assume the role- while giving the team a better chance at "winning" now, while we wait- that should also be the GM's focus, as well.

One voice of reason!

[Brandon]

I would like the Twins to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal but not a 1 year deal. I see Cruz just signed a 1 year 8 million contract with Baltimore. They are all of a sudden having a good offseason. I bet more players will take the Qualifying offer next year.

[stringer bell]

It leaves only Drew and Morales on the board of those free agent thought to earn over $10M per year. I still would rather have the switch-hitting DH who could back up at 1B.

[johnnydakota]

It leaves only Drew and Morales on the board of those free agent thought to earn over $10M per year. I still would rather have the switch-hitting DH who could back up at 1B.

 

So with Gardies tendency to carry 13 pitchers and 3 catchers, you are suggesting we only carry 1 utility guy who can play all infield positions and all 3 outfield positions?

 

But yes Morales would be a nice upgrade to having a hodge podge of guys at the DH position

[stringer bell]

With four starters who are thought to be "innings eaters", none of whom are rehabbing from surgery in the last year, I really don't think they need 13 pitchers. I realize it would hurt the bench to have Morales as a permanent DH, but I've thought that a switch hitter between Mauer and Hammer (later Sano) would be ideal.

[howeda7]

What % of second round picks pan out? 10%? We have a black-hole at SS, no long-term answer in the pipe that would be blocked and an $83 million payroll. There's really no excuse for not doing it, IMO. If Drew doesn't pan out, we're out a 2nd round pick and some money would wouldn't otherwise spend.

[nicksaviking]

What % of second round picks pan out? 10%? We have a black-hole at SS, no long-term answer in the pipe that would be blocked and an $83 million payroll. There's really no excuse for not doing it, IMO. If Drew doesn't pan out, we're out a 2nd round pick and some money would wouldn't otherwise spend.

 

But you're only thinking short term where the money is concerned. If the Twins payroll is $95 million because of Drew in 2015, can we really expect the Twins to chase after James Shields, Justin Masterson or Jon Lester? We then need to ask the same question about 2016 as Drew is going to require a 3 year commitment. This isn't the NFL, you can't just cut him and wipe that salary off the books when he's no longer useful or when his salary becomes a payroll hindrance.

[stringer bell]

What about Escobar?

 

Drew doesn't project well. Over the next three years, he is projected (Oliver per fangraphs) for the same WAR as Escobar with Drews declining and Escobar increasing slightly.

 

Projecting three years and even next year is difficult but the projection methods produce better results than using the previous year to project the next year.

 

While both are projected at 4.9 WAR over the next three years, Drew is more certain to be at that mediocre level. Escobar may never get the chance, not improve or he may take a step with his bat to go with the glove and exceed that level.

 

The Twins sign Drew and they will likely need to DFA Escobar and any upside. That's fine if they get 2.5-3 WAR per year over the contract. Is that reasonable in a shortstop on the wrong side of the aging curve?

Escobar is a utility guy, Florimon is a shortstop. If the Twins acquired Drew to play SS, Florimon is limited or gone IMHO.

[Guest USAFChief]

But you're only thinking short term where the money is concerned. If the Twins payroll is $95 million because of Drew in 2015, can we really expect the Twins to chase after James Shields, Justin Masterson or Jon Lester? We then need to ask the same question about 2016 as Drew is going to require a 3 year commitment. This isn't the NFL, you can't just cut him and wipe that salary off the books when he's no longer useful or when his salary becomes a payroll hindrance.

Yes. Drew's salary shouldnt deter the Twins from pursuing other free agents in the future, any more than it should deter them now. What will stop the Twins from pursuing top free agents is their own long held reluctance to do so, not a lack of funds.

[Major League Ready]

A second round pick is not consistent with building a winner, at least not for the next half decade.

 

You build a winner by putting better baseball players on the major league roster.

 

I am not sure if you meant to phrase this as fact. It is an opinion. My observation in consulting with the largest companies in the US on a daily basis on strategy and risk management is that the people responsible for these types of decisions see this much differently than your position(s). My experience and observations suggest they see this from the following perspective.

 

 

• Marginal benefit in terms of wins
  
• Extremely weak against LHP
  
• Lesser player defensively at a key defensive position.
  
• $10M or more for multiple years on an asset that will not increase revenue
  
• Substantial risk due to underperformance and/or injury.
  
• Payroll that could be used for greater and/or longer term net gain.
  
• Draft choice loss – Obviously, any draft choice could be a complete bust and this is pick is low 40s overall. It could also produce Taijuan Walker who was taken #43. There are another 10-12 (depending on list) top 50 prospects that were chosen outside the first round. And, another 17-20 in the top 51-100.
  

[Guest USAFChief]

I am not sure if you meant to phrase this as fact. It is an opinion. My observation in consulting with the largest companies in the US on a daily basis on strategy and risk management is that the people responsible for these types of decisions see this much differently than your position(s). My experience and observations suggest they see this from the following perspective.

• Marginal benefit in terms of wins
  
• Extremely weak against LHP
  
• Lesser player defensively at a key defensive position.
  
• $10M or more for multiple years on an asset that will not increase revenue
  
• Substantial risk due to underperformance and/or injury.
  
• Payroll that could be used for greater and/or longer term net gain.
  
• Draft choice loss – Obviously, any draft choice could be a complete bust and this is pick is low 40s overall. It could also produce Taijuan Walker who was taken #43. There are another 10-12 (depending on list) top 50 prospects that were chosen outside the first round. And, another 17-20 in the top 51-100.
  

The largest companies in the US spend time considering "weak against LH pitching?"

[nicksaviking]

Yes. Drew's salary shouldnt deter the Twins from pursuing other free agents in the future, any more than it should deter them now. What will stop the Twins from pursuing top free agents is their own long held reluctance to do so, not a lack of funds.

 

I agree, payroll shouldn't be a concern and there should be room to increase it, but as you said, what will stop them is their own long held reluctance. If we want to consider future free agents however, we do have to take into account the Twins long held reluctance to go beyond a comfortable payroll.

 

We've complained about the Twins reluctance to spend nearly every year there have been internet forms to complain on. I don't think we should assume those concerns won't be there next year or the year after.

[Guest USAFChief]

I agree, payroll shouldn't be a concern and there should be room to increase it, but as you said, what will stop them is their own long held reluctance. If we want to consider future free agents however, we do have to take into account the Twins long held reluctance to go beyond a comfortable payroll. We've complained about the Twins reluctance to spend nearly every year there have been internet forms to complain on. I don't think we should assume those concerns won't be there next year or the year after.

I guess my opinion would be they aren't going to be handing out 9 figure deals to free agent pitchers no matter the payroll situation, so a Drew deal now will have no effect on whether or not they pursue an ace level pitcher in the future.

[Major League Ready]

The largest companies in the US spend time considering "weak against LH pitching?"

 

You need to read the post again. The statement was made in the context of how people who are responsible for multi-million dollar decisions would assess this situation. This is my opinion of how (in general) people in the position to make these decisions would assess this situation. This opinion is formed from managing in such role and now working daily with this type of decision maker in a consulting role. I am quite certain it is a qualified opinion but the beauty of the internet is that our opinions and assessments all get equal weight.

[howeda7]

But you're only thinking short term where the money is concerned. If the Twins payroll is $95 million because of Drew in 2015, can we really expect the Twins to chase after James Shields, Justin Masterson or Jon Lester? We then need to ask the same question about 2016 as Drew is going to require a 3 year commitment. This isn't the NFL, you can't just cut him and wipe that salary off the books when he's no longer useful or when his salary becomes a payroll hindrance.

 

You're right. This isn't the NFL. There's no salary cap. The Twins had a payroll of $110 million in 2011. Their local and national TV revenue has gone up significantly since then. They can easily afford a $110-120 million dollar payroll in 2015 and 2016. So no, I don't think Drew causing them to at $95 million in 2015, or 15% lower than their payroll 4 years s earlier should cause them issues. There's zero reason to worry significantly about the payroll, unless you're a Pohlad heir.

 

And Chief is right, they'll be reluctant to give Jon Lester a big contract. But they'll almost equally reluctant if the payroll before doing so is $85 or $95 million. They always say the money is there for a player if they need it and they tend to view each offer in a vacuum. The payroll could be $30 million and Terry Ryan would not vastly overpay for a FA. It's against his religion.