Mystery teams in on Drew

[jokin]

One case does not an argument make. Bill James has a long and thorough analysis of the risks of investing in middle infielders past 30.

 

The upshot: The vast majority are not worth it after age 32.

 

There are exceptions, but they tend to be guys who are wiry and slight of build: Vizquel, Smith, Larkin, Trammel. For each one of those, there are 10 guys like Guzman or Knoblauch who started their declines at at 30 and were effectively done by age 32.

 

If Bill James is to be taken as gospel, then the Twins signing of Drew at 2 yrs/$21M through age 32 (2015) makes a lot of sense.

[cmathewson]

Name the last "premiere talent" that the Twins drafted in the 2nd round.

 

I'm not following you on "2nd Division starter players", is that how you are classifying Florimon.....or Drew?

 

And your argument for not signing Drew as a 2 year rental is that "they're going to lose the next 2 years, so why bother"?

 

What's so bad about a "rental" (who would also have potential trading value while in the Twns employ)?....Even if the dollars are readily available?....and it doesn't block a prospect?...and you don't block a 1st round potential SS draft pick in 2014 or 2015?....and you don't cripple other team-building maneuvers?...and signing a legitimate big league SS might encourage another quality FA to consider signing next offseason?

 

Premier talent? Justin Morneau was a third rounder. Koskie was a 26th rounder. In the second round, the Twins drafted Crain, Baker, Slowey, and Swarzak in successive years. Premier talent? Perhaps not. But neither is Drew.

[cmathewson]

If Bill James is to be taken as gospel, then the Twins signing of Drew at 2 yrs/$21M through age 32 (2015) makes a lot of sense.

 

Maybe that's why the Red Sox refuse to give him more than a one-year deal.

[TheLeviathan]

1) The Dodgers had such confidence in Nolasco, they skipped his start in the playoffs, and then signed a pretty "shaky" Dan Haren to take his place?

 

Since when does one's track record of success boil down to a decision made about one game in one season? C'mon now.

 

Drew is in his decline phase and IF Hardy is even evidence that it isn't a guarantee, it's the exception that proves the rule. Most SS's decline heavily, especially in their defense. And we have reason to be suspicious of his offense away from Fenway.

 

No thanks.

[notoriousgod71]

I don't trust this team to draft anything of quality unless they have a top two pick so I say go for it!

[johnnydakota]

Ok here is the bottom line...we are building for the future....so where are the magic beans this year? Signing Diaz would be a step in the right direction and saves a #45 pick ...Why sign a guy who is older,costs a draft pick and is on the down side , for what we pay him for 3 years we could sign a younger guy to grow with the team and have him for 6 years instead of 3?

[johnnydakota]

Why sign Pelfrey, when there are actual SP candidates, but not sign Drew, when there are no SS candidates? I am baffled by that.....

 

I am more baffled why the Yanks have not signed him to play 2B.

 

 

Stop using common sense , you dont know what they think they know , you know?

 

Ifs and buts were candy and nuts we would all have diabeties by opening day

[Monkeypaws]

If Bill James is to be taken as gospel, then the Twins signing of Drew at 2 yrs/$21M through age 32 (2015) makes a lot of sense.

 

Drew turns 31 in March - through age 33.

[Riverbrian]

The average SS hit .697 OPS/94 OPS+, Florimon has managed to hit .601 OPS/67 OPS+ in his career with little indication that he can do any better than that. You don't find that the least bit embarrassing?

 

Hardy is going to be making 8 figures with already-earned bonuses in 2014, and will be making much more into the 8 figure per anum range on his next contract. He's a career .740 OPS/96 OPS+ hitter versus Drew at .764 OPS/98 OPS+. That makes 2 yrs/$21M look not too bad for Drew.

 

If that $10M was proven to be holding the Twins back from signing someone else, I'm all in, but someone who can play a decent SS and hit RHP at somewhere close to .800 OPS at a premium defensive position qualifies as a raker on this team. Nelson Cruz, by contrast, has a career .823 OPS as a part-time, oft-injured player who has averaged 125 games per year, and whose defense really qualifies him as a DH- and he'll be making a lot more than Drew.

 

I'm really not embarrassed by Florimon at all. Sure I'd like him to hit better but he's a fantastic defensive shortstop and that's what he has to be. Not that I'm hopeful but under 600 AB's... He isn't set in stone as a hitter. No need to focus on that. He's a defensive guy.

 

If Florimon was expected to lead this team at the plate... I'd be embarrassed. He's not so I'm not. Florimon batting ninth was not this teams 2013 problem and it won't be the 2014 problem.

 

The problem was Brian Dozier leading the team in home runs on a team that was built to slug. The problem was Josh Willingham slugging .360 something and Plouffe slugging .390 something.

 

If we don't have speed we need honest to goodness sluggers. Under that context... I was more embarrassed(not the right word) by Hammer and Plouffe.

 

I'm not willing to believe that Drew will slug over .400 again or stay healthy or be a solid influence on a team that may struggle. We don't have consistent proof of that with Drew on any of those worries of mine. What we have is improvement offensively over Florimon and that's a low bar to clear and not worth 8 figures.

 

On attitude... It's easy to feel good when your winning with Boston. How are you with a club that isn't and a 10 million plus multi year contract in your pocket. Arizona threw a red flag with me by shipping him out for nothing.

 

If I'm spending 10 plus million... I'd rather spend 10 million on Nelson Cruz who consistently slugs over .500 to truly help this current team offensively. More bang for the buck.

 

Yeah... I'd sneak him some roids as well.. Ok... No I wouldn't... But... Yeah I would.

I wouldn't... I despise steroids and the dark cloud it produced and hung over the game I love. The last full sized sentence was a poor attempt at humor and in no way reflects my integrity and sense of Fair Play!!! Someone like Glunn would have no problem injecting an athlete playing for his favorite team but he is a lawyer and he knows legal tricks in order to keep that player eligible. Ashbury is also a urine expert and in combination with Glunn the issue becomes less of a concern.

[jokin]

I'm really not embarrassed by Florimon at all. Sure I'd like him to hit better but he's a fantastic defensive shortstop and that's what he has to be. Not that I'm hopeful but under 600 AB's... He isn't set in stone as a hitter. No need to focus on that. He's a defensive guy.

 

If Florimon was expected to lead this team at the plate... I'd be embarrassed. He's not so I'm not. Florimon batting ninth was not this teams 2013 problem and it won't be the 2014 problem.

 

The problem was Brian Dozier leading the team in home runs on a team that was built to slug. The problem was Josh Willingham slugging .360 something and Plouffe slugging .390 something.

 

If we don't have speed we need honest to goodness sluggers. Under that context... I was more embarrassed(not the right word) by Hammer and Plouffe.

 

I'm not willing to believe that Drew will slug over .400 again or stay healthy or be a solid influence on a team that may struggle. We don't have consistent proof of that with Drew on any of those worries of mine. What we have us improvement offensively over Florimon and that's a low bar to clear and not worth 8 figures.

 

On attitude... It's easy to feel good when your winning with Boston. How are you with a club that isn't and a 10 million plus multi year contract in your pocket. Arizona threw a red flag with me by shipping him out for nothing.

If I'm spending 10 plus million... I'd rather spend 10 million on Nelson Cruz who consistently slugs over .500 to truly help this current team offensively. More bang for the buck.

 

Yeah... I'd sneak him some roids as well.. Ok... No I wouldn't... But... Yeah I would.

I wouldn't... I despise steroids and the dark cloud it produced and hung over the game I love. The last full sized sentence was a poor attempt at humor and in no way reflects my integrity and sense of Fair Play!!! Someone like Glunn would have no problem injecting an athlete playing for his favorite team but he is a lawyer and he knows legal tricks in order to keep that player eligible. Ashbury is also a urine expert and in combination with Glunn the issue becomes less of a concern.

 

Drew was traded from Arizona in a salary dump, and because his future was in doubt as he was batting .193 while literally re-learning how to run. He's proven that he has fully recovered in 2013, actually getting stronger month-by-month as the season wore on.

 

Nelson Cruz would help the team offensively- no question- but the same goes for Cruz, attitude, winning team.....and you're getting a one-dimensional player whose defensive ability qualifies him as a DH, and who gets hurt frequently, and may be suspended at any moment with his next urinie test- even with Glunn and Asbury's collaborative efforts.

[jokin]

Drew turns 31 in March - through age 33.

 

Drew BD: March 16, 1983.

On March 16, 2015 he turns 32! Thus, through age 32.

[jokin]

Maybe that's why the Red Sox refuse to give him more than a one-year deal.

 

Or maybe they have Bogaerts ready to take over the postion and see no need to go beyond one year. The Twins, not so much.

[Riverbrian]

Drew was traded from Arizona in a salary dump, and because his future was in doubt as he was batting .193 while literally re-learning how to run. He's proven that he has fully recovered in 2013, actually getting stronger month-by-month as the season wore on.

 

Nelson Cruz would help the team offensively- no question- but the same goes for Cruz, attitude, winning team.....and you're getting a one-dimensional player whose defensive ability qualifies him as a DH, and who gets hurt frequently, and may be suspended at any moment with his next urinie test- even with Glunn and Asbury's collaborative efforts.

 

Drew was also called out by the owner publicly by name.

On Drew, a 29-year-old shortstop who missed the second half of the 2011 season with a severe ankle injury and has not played this season, Kendrick said: “I’m going to be real direct about Stephen. I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly. I, for one, am disappointed. I’m going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that’s paying his salary. All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity. Frankly, we have our concerns.

This doesn't mean anything... You never know if the context is correct. The owner could have been pissed off because his wife yelled at him in the morning or his lawnmower didn't start or something before he threw Drew under the bus. The owner could be a complete idiot... I don't know.

 

But the above quote and the giving him to Oakland for nothing while not having a decent SS to replace him and the outrageous price of SS's is enough to give me pause.

[cmathewson]

Or maybe they have Bogaerts ready to take over the postion and see no need to go beyond one year. The Twins, not so much.

 

Stupid Red Sox. Bogaerting all the shortstops.

[jokin]

Since when does one's track record of success boil down to a decision made about one game in one season? C'mon now.

 

Drew is in his decline phase and IF Hardy is even evidence that it isn't a guarantee, it's the exception that proves the rule. Most SS's decline heavily, especially in their defense. And we have reason to be suspicious of his offense away from Fenway.

 

No thanks.

 

The Dodgers made the decision to sign a "shaky" Haren over Nolasco, that was certainly more than a one-game decision.

 

And be suspicious all you want, I don't accept the decline phase theory, because a less athletic-to-start SS who doesn't rely on sheer athleticism just isn't going to decline as much. But even accepting the shaky premise based mostly on opinion, there's no evidence that's been presented (except the weaker numbers against LHP) that suggests he's lost it-

 

he still posted a vastly superior ballpark-adjusted OPS+,

 

made the plays on everything in front of him,

 

and even allowing for a marked drop-off from 2013 would still represent vastly superior production over Florimon, who probably won't be around himself for very much longer.

 

2 years with Drew does nothing crippling to the team- on the field or reflected in the payroll- even if the projected worse happens- it's still better than Florimon.

[Riverbrian]

Just for the record... There is something I like about Drew. Triples... He hits a lot of triples and triples to me are an indicator of aggressiveness and I like aggressiveness so I dont hate him.

 

This has been an interesting discussion... Good job on both sides to all.

[TheLeviathan]

The Dodgers made the decision to sign a "shaky" Haren over Nolasco, that was certainly more than a one-game decision.

 

And the World Champs are casting him off and the other 29 teams aren't all that interested either. That sort of "evidence" isn't exactly in Drews favor.

 

Florimon is a vastly superior defender, I'm ok with his terrible bat for now as long as the glove is there. I don't feel a pressing need to add decline phase players for draft picks right now.

[jokin]

Drew was also called out by the owner publicly by name.

On Drew, a 29-year-old shortstop who missed the second half of the 2011 season with a severe ankle injury and has not played this season, Kendrick said: “I’m going to be real direct about Stephen. I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly. I, for one, am disappointed. I’m going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that’s paying his salary. All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity. Frankly, we have our concerns.

This doesn't mean anything... You never know if the context is correct. The owner could have been pissed off because his wife yelled at him in the morning or his lawnmower didn't start or something before he threw Drew under the bus. The owner could be a complete idiot... I don't know.

 

But the above quote and the giving him to Oakland for nothing while not having a decent SS to replace him and the outrageous price of SS's is enough to give me pause.

 

I understand what happens when Boras is involved, loyalties get mighty murky. But if you've seen the horrific video and the nature of his injury, and understand the procedures and rehab involved, literally having to learn how to run again, and then see how Drew has fully recovered this season, I am far less concerned about what a frustrated owner said 2 seasons ago.

 

I would be all for putting incentive clauses into a Drew 2-year contract as protection for the Twins- and as a reward to Drew for meeting them.

[Top Gun]

Drew would be the Twins best lead off hitter since Carew!

[Riverbrian]

I understand what happens when Boras is involved, loyalties get might murky. But if you've seen the horrific video and the nature of his injury, and understand the procedures and rehab involved, literally having to learn how to run again, and then see how Drew has fully recovered this season, I am far less concerned about what a frustrated owner said 2 seasons ago.

 

I would be all for putting incentive clauses into a Drew 2-year contract as protection for the Twins- and as a reward to Drew for meeting them.

 

Easily explained with your explanation... yet at the same time... Not really explained considering that the frustrated owner... hastily or not... Gave away a SS that is supposedly over 10 million in value today.

 

I won't make any definitive claims myself... I will only say it gives me pause. But attitude aside... Offensively... His stats don't match up with the price tag... They match up with position scarcity.

[Willihammer]

Well its not the Twins, Gardy made that clear. Bullet dodged.

[jokin]

Easily explained with your explanation... yet at the same time... Not really explained considering that the frustrated owner... hastily or not... Gave away a SS that is supposedly over 10 million in value today.

 

I won't make any definitive claims myself... I will only say it gives me pause. But attitude aside... Offensively... His stats don't match up with the price tag... They match up with position scarcity.

 

Owners never do boneheaded things? This owner compounded his boneheaded generosity towards his fellow owners, he successively "gave away" a BA & MLB.com Top Ten SP- not a D-Back top ten prospect, but an overall top ten prospect- to replace Stephen Drew with Didi Gregorius.

 

D-Backs net SS production in 2013: .682 OPS/95 OPS+

Drew in 2013: .777 OPS/111 OPS+

League Average: .675OPS/91 OPS+

 

Regarding position scarcity, Mauer used to fall under the same equation. The Twins desperately need to upgrade their offense- which on paper right now- looks to be worse than last years' anemic output, SS is one of 2 or 3 obvious positions where they still can do so without interfering with the long-term plan.

 

Regarding your objection to the price tag, we do have WAR as an approximate measure of value. Drew's 3.2 bWAR and 3.4 fWAR would suggest that, he was worth $17-$20M in 2013. Even with a drop-off in 2014 and 2015, it appears likely that he would comfortably still "earn" his $10M/yr based on WAR measurements.

[jokin]

You assume that the Twins have a shortstop who can platoon with Drew. Florimon was even worse against lefties than Drew last year, and every year. His platoon splits are similar to Drew's but worse. That's not a platoon. That's two switch hitters who should probably stick to left-handed hitting.

 

I brought this up in one of the earlier Drew thread extravaganzas:

 

Eduardo Escobar has a career split against lefties of .289 BA/.739 OPS.

[Guest USAFChief]

And the World Champs are casting him off and the other 29 teams aren't all that interested either. That sort of "evidence" isn't exactly in Drews favor.

 

Florimon is a vastly superior defender, I'm ok with his terrible bat for now as long as the glove is there. I don't feel a pressing need to add decline phase players for draft picks right now.

The World Champs didn't "cast off" Drew...they offered him a $14M one yr contract, despite having the minors' best SS prospect ready to go.

 

Most of the other 29 teams aren't in the Twins position...they don't have a pressing need at SS and/or they would be surrendering a first round pick, not a second.

 

And for the record, "Florimon is a vastly superior defender" is an opinion, not a fact, and an opinion based on little evidence at that.

 

And finally, "decline phase player" is the sort of phrase that drives me crazy. Players are individuals, not fruit on the grocery store shelf. They don't all age along the same curve, and there is no research that can predict otherwise accurately.

[cmathewson]

Drew would be the Twins best lead off hitter since Carew!

 

Chuck Knoblauch says Hi. He had an OBP above .380 five times, twice above .400 and once at .448 (!). That was in 2006, when he hit .341 with 14 triples, 35 doubles and stole 45 bases. He also scored 140 runs.

 

Since then, the best season for a lead-off hitter was Span had an OBP of .393 in 2009.

 

Drew hasn't had an OBP above .333 since 2010.

[nicksaviking]

Drew BD: March 16, 1983.

On March 16, 2015 he turns 32! Thus, through age 32.

 

But he's almost surely not coming to Minnesota on a two year deal. He's holding out for three and if he has to cave in and settle for two, I doubt it's for flyover country. It never is.

[cmathewson]

And finally, "decline phase player" is the sort of phrase that drives me crazy. Players are individuals, not fruit on the grocery store shelf. They don't all age along the same curve, and there is no research that can predict otherwise accurately.

 

If you're investing money, you want to understand the risks and benefits. The risk here is that a large percentage of middle infielders decline precipitously from age 30 to age 32. That isn't an opinion, it's a statistical fact. Drew could be an outlier. But if you're a betting man, you don't bet on outliers.

[Riverbrian]

Owners never do boneheaded things? This owner compounded his boneheaded generosity towards his fellow owners, he successively "gave away" a BA & MLB.com Top Ten SP- not a D-Back top ten prospect, but an overall top ten prospect- to replace Stephen Drew with Didi Gregorius.

 

This shows exactly what I'm saying when I talk about the price tag of SS's and position scarcity inflating that price tag. Gregorious value is equivalent to Trevor Bauer and Shin Soo Choo.

 

Justin Upton does not equal the value of Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar. With Drew you are paying big money because he is a SS. Not because he has consistently produced awesome numbers.

 

As for D-Backs owner Ken Kendrick and if he's a bonehead. I've never met him. I wasn't in the room when he got frustrated with Stephen Drew. I don't know if he made assumptions or Drew said to him.... Screw You... I'm not risking my contract with someone next year or whatever. We don't know if it was Boras and Drew disagreeing with Team Doctors or Kendrick not listening to team doctors. I don't know.

 

I'm not comfortable designating anyone as a bonehead without 1st hand knowledge of them.

 

Owners... Typically have some ability. They were able to make enough money to buy the club and that isn't easy to do if you are a bonehead. In a lot of cases... They are able to accumulate a lot of money because they don't give away assets.

 

Actions speak louder than words... Drew was given away. The A's gave the D-Backs nothing for him. It was compounded because it cost the D-Backs Trevor Bauer to replace him. You could say... Indirectly... The D-Backs gave away Bauer to get rid of Drew.

 

It was just 2012... It wasn't that long ago. A decent 2013 with a winning team Boston doesn't say... I'm back... Ta-Dah!!!

 

In 2012... Not along ago... The D-Backs gave him away... They hated him that much... It would have to be assumed that they tried to trade him to more teams than the A's.

 

No team could beat the A's package of Sean Jamieson... a 17th round pick who was hitting .234 at Low A.

 

Now consider position scarcity and the price of Gregorious and Andrus and I assume without proof that Drew was unwanted in 2012 by everyone and 2012 wasn't that long ago.

 

 

Its going to give me pause. You won't be able to convince me to jump in first feet. I must pause.

[Craig Arko]

Drew was also called out by the owner publicly by name.

On Drew, a 29-year-old shortstop who missed the second half of the 2011 season with a severe ankle injury and has not played this season, Kendrick said: “I’m going to be real direct about Stephen. I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly. I, for one, am disappointed. I’m going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that’s paying his salary. All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity. Frankly, we have our concerns.

This doesn't mean anything... You never know if the context is correct. The owner could have been pissed off because his wife yelled at him in the morning or his lawnmower didn't start or something before he threw Drew under the bus. The owner could be a complete idiot... I don't know.

 

But the above quote and the giving him to Oakland for nothing while not having a decent SS to replace him and the outrageous price of SS's is enough to give me pause.

 

This story just screams "Tommy Herr" and makes me cringe. I still hold out crazy hope that we see Dozier take another go at short later in the season, and Rosario come up in September at second.

[tobi0040]

If you're investing money, you want to understand the risks and benefits. The risk here is that a large percentage of middle infielders decline precipitously from age 30 to age 32. That isn't an opinion, it's a statistical fact. Drew could be an outlier. But if you're a betting man, you don't bet on outliers.

 

Here is the problem I get myself into. I am a die hard fan and sit here and assume that the Twins want to win. I sit here think that is the objective. I think they want to win, but the main objective is to run this team as profitable as possible. So when we sit here and debate signing Drew and how we would obviously win more games as a result......those 3 wins simply are not worth $8-9M dollars to this front office and ownership group. Signing Morales or Cruz and the wins associated is not worth $12M. That is the harsh reality. Most would love to see these moves (if short term deals).

 

Consider a few things.

 

 

Forbes pegged this team at a profit of $10M last year. This year our payroll remains the same while revenue is up nearly $40M. So this team should make $50M next year.

 

The value of the Twins, pre-stadium (mostly publicly funded) was $214M. Last year, Forbes calculated the value at $560M. Bloomberg has the value now at $700M, with the increase related to the new media deal (added $110M to each franchise). So this team is up nearly half a billion dollars, or 250% in the span of 6-7 years.

 

By any measure, our fans are some of the best in the game. We have gone out to the games to watch horrible baseball for 3 years in a row.

 

Would it be the end of the world to throw us a bone with Drew and/or Cruz/Morales? Would that be asking too much? We would not hamper our future and this team would still be well in the green next year.

 

We should not have to watch Florimon at SS or sit here and try and justify the signing. This is a conversation that should have happened at Target field in October and it should have been a relatively simple one.

 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/morning_roundup/2013/10/minnesota-twins-value-700-million.html