Mystery teams in on Drew

[ppearson50]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/four-teams-still-in-on-stephen-drew.html

 

Red Sox, Mets and two mystery teams. Are we a mystery team?

 

We have the money, the position need and it only costs us a second round pick.

[LewFordLives]

He is a Scott Boras client, so who knows if the mystery teams are real or just some kind of negotiating ploy. That said, if the money is right I wouldn't mind seeing him on a short term deal.

[Teflon]

Red Sox, Mets and two mystery teams. Are we a mystery team?

 

More of a misery team. As opposed to the Royals - who are more of a Missouri team.

[Monkeypaws]

Don't get the Drew love - he isn't going to make the Twins that much better that I would give up the pick.

[DaveW]

Don't get the Drew love - he isn't going to make the Twins that much better that I would give up the pick.

 

Have you seen our SS depth chart lately.

[Riverbrian]

Don't get the Drew love - he isn't going to make the Twins that much better that I would give up the pick.

 

I'm with you. I've never been a fan of Drew and Florimon just doesn't scare me enough to make a desperation signing.

 

CF would be my biggest concern as it stands right now.

[Trautmann13]

Unless the Twins sign Drew for 3 or 4 years I don't think it would be worth loosing a 2nd round pick. Lets all face it, the next time we will be even close to contending is 2015. If we sign Drew to a 1 or 2 year deal, his talent and our money/pick will be wasted with him stuck on bad teams. Wouldn't be again signing Drew, but for no less than 3 years (and I feel that is unrealistic)

[Craig Arko]

Sounds like the Yankees were in; and maybe the Hanshin Tigers are looking for a utility guy.

[DaveW]

I'm with you. I've never been a fan of Drew and Florimon just doesn't scare me enough to make a desperation signing.

 

CF would be my biggest concern as it stands right now.

 

You do realize that we have a permanent (knock on wood) fix for CF that should be ready in the next 6-12 months, right? We don't have ANYONE right now in the system who looks to be a sure thing as anything more then a stop gap SS.

[DaveW]

Unless the Twins sign Drew for 3 or 4 years I don't think it would be worth loosing a 2nd round pick. Lets all face it, the next time we will be even close to contending is 2015. If we sign Drew to a 1 or 2 year deal, his talent and our money/pick will be wasted with him stuck on bad teams. Wouldn't be again signing Drew, but for no less than 3 years (and I feel that is unrealistic)

 

If you signed him to a 1-2 year deal, you would likely get another 2nd round pick (or 50% chance at a 1st round pick) back at the end of that contract.

 

The Twins have the best farm system in baseball, and the worst major league product (sans Marlins, Cubs and Astros) in baseball. At some point you can sacrifice a single 2nd round pick in order to greatly improve your major league talent/roster. The Twins window is going to open very quickly with the arrival of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, etc etc over the next couple years, get players that can help now and in the near future instead of 2nd round guy who likely will never make the majors, or won't make it for several years.

[Riverbrian]

You do realize that we have a permanent (knock on wood) fix for CF that should be ready in the next 6-12 months, right? We don't have ANYONE right now in the system who looks to be a sure thing as anything more then a stop gap SS.

 

I do... I have SS sticker shock. 14 million doesn't buy much at the 6 position.

 

Until the Twins can draft and develop a Tulowitzki (maybe by 2022). I'm fine with a glove guy and spending 14 million on someone who can actually rake at another position.

 

At CF... Eventually we will be flush with em... Right now... Unless Hicks breaks camp with and runs with it. We are extremely dry come April.

[Jim H]

You do realize that we have a permanent (knock on wood) fix for CF that should be ready in the next 6-12 months, right? We don't have ANYONE right now in the system who looks to be a sure thing as anything more then a stop gap SS.

 

I agree with the first part, the problem I have is, How is Drew anymore than a short term fix? While you might be right about the farm system, you might be wrong too. In any case Drew isn't all that much of a sure thing either. He also isn't very likely to actually stick at shortstop for more than a year or 2. So in 2 years you are back to looking for a shortstop. If you are looking for a long term fix at short, Drew isn't it. Florimon isn't likely a long term answer either, but at least he isn't blocking any such solution, which a couple of years of Drew at $10 plus mil per year, would.

[gil4]

More of a misery team. As opposed to the Royals - who are more of a Missouri team.

 

Misery, Missouri ... they don't call it the "Why Me" state for nothing.

[DaveW]

I do... I have SS sticker shock. 14 million doesn't buy much at the 6 position.

 

Until the Twins can draft and develop a Tulowitzki (maybe by 2022). I'm fine with a glove guy and spending 14 million on someone who can actually rake at another position.

 

At CF... Eventually we will be flush with em... Right now... Unless Hicks breaks camp with and runs with it. We are extremely dry come April.

 

I wouldn't give him 14 mil a year, I would give him 2/22 or 3/30 in a heartbeat though.

[DaveW]

. He also isn't very likely to actually stick at shortstop for more than a year or 2.

 

But that isn't true..

[diehardtwinsfan]

I waffle back and forth on Drew. No question he's an upgrade, and I agree with others in that the need for him will be greater in a few years. Perhaps they try hard for a JJ Hardy reunion next season... who knows. But yeah, there's not much in the minors. Santana might have the glove and a better OPS than florimon, but you have to go further down to Polanco (and he's no sure thing to stick by any means) before you see potential...

[AlwaysinModeration]

In answer to the question at hand, I am going on a limb here and saying "no", the Twins are not the mystery team.

[darin617]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/four-teams-still-in-on-stephen-drew.html

 

Red Sox, Mets and two mystery teams. Are we a mystery team?

 

We have the money, the position need and it only costs us a second round pick.

 

Not worth a 2nd round pick and the $14M+ per year. I would rather have Nelson Cruz if they were to give up the pick and the money.

[Guest USAFChief]

He also isn't very likely to actually stick at shortstop for more than a year or 2.

Neither is Florimon. In fact, I'd wager a good sum of money Drew is an every day major league shortstop longer than Florimon.

[That Guy]

Florimon could regress even further at the plate. Great glove but going 4 years 40 million on Drew maybe a risk worth taking. Goodrum is years away and Santana is inconsistent. Even if they develop a SS may be 2016 when they ready. Could trade Drew away if needed or be utility guy (expensive) but where else will the money be spent next couple of years.

[Dman]

If no one is willing to give up a 2nd rounder for Drew right now I don't see us getting much in return if we decide to trade him later. I agree that SS is a major need but the draft pick is a better deal IMO. Maybe Santana will be ready for a try out the the end of this season and if he fails miserably we can get more desperate. Until then I am fine with trades and tryouts this year. The talent is coming and when things come together and we still have no short stop then I will be on the upgrade bandwagon. I am just not a believer in Drew like others on this board.

[pierre75275]

I wouldn't give him 14 mil a year, I would give him 2/22 or 3/30 in a heartbeat though.

I would give him 3/24 or 3/27. If I am giving up a high draft pick I want more then two years

[johnnydakota]

If you signed him to a 1-2 year deal, you would likely get another 2nd round pick (or 50% chance at a 1st round pick) back at the end of that contract.

 

The Twins have the best farm system in baseball, and the worst major league product (sans Marlins, Cubs and Astros) in baseball. At some point you can sacrifice a single 2nd round pick in order to greatly improve your major league talent/roster. The Twins window is going to open very quickly with the arrival of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, etc etc over the next couple years, get players that can help now and in the near future instead of 2nd round guy who likely will never make the majors, or won't make it for several years.

 

In 2 more years you will have to offer him a 17 million 1 year deal , and Me thinks he would accept it, Why cough up a top 45 pick and 20+ million when there are other posibilitys who dont cost a pick and who will be getting better when we are good, instead of trending down?

[jokin]

In 2 more years you will have to offer him a 17 million 1 year deal , and Me thinks he would accept it, Why cough up a top 45 pick and 20+ million when there are other posibilitys who dont cost a pick and who will be getting better when we are good, instead of trending down?

 

Boras never takes the QO for his clients. MIs that bat left-handed and mash RHP are a rare commodity and protect Drew's potential value in the out-year of a contract, plus the added chance with Boras as his agent, to recoup that lost pick.

 

If the "$20+M" would be spent on signing a certain impact International/Cuban SS, or another FA bat, acquiring a legitimate Lead-Off man, or Ervin Santana, I'd say re-direct your priorities in those directions over Drew, but the Twins at this point, seem destined to not spending that $20+M and simply go with what they have in camp right now, and then shed even more payroll as the season progresses.

[Marta Shearing]

He was the starting SS for a World Series champion team. That counts for something in my book. Florimon is a disaster at the plate. Why continue the charade with this guy? The batting order is currently worse than last years lineup. I'd throw big money at Drew for three years and hope Polanco or Goodrum can take over at that point. This organization has money coming out of their ears. They can afford to overpay (heaven forbid) a guy who will improve this pitiful offense and plug a gaping hole at SS for the next three years.

[071063]

Absolutely not on Drew unless the asking price comes way down and it is a longer term deal, and we all know that is not Boras' style. If the price drops, it will be a 1 year deal. With the loss of the draft pick, in a deep draft, No Way! Not worth it and it is not gonna happen. Anyone who says it is a smart move is crazy!

[tobi0040]

I would give him 3/24 or 3/27. If I am giving up a high draft pick I want more then two years

 

I would give him a 2 year deal and a team option for a third. Probably 2/18. I would not panic about a mystery team as that typically means you are bidding against yourself.

 

Drew would be 3 win upgrade in each of the next two years. He is not an all star, but he is going to give you another 30 hits, 20 extra base hits, more RBI, more runs, and get on base more than Pedro. We have the money and we are not mortgaging our future.

 

As far as the second round pick goes, since 1990 we have had 30 picks in the second round. I don't see a single guy that has made an all star team. Jacque was a solid player for a period of time. Baker was the only other guy that was at one point both productive and promising as a player. Obviously you have other guys that have been contributors like Swarzak and Crain. Exactly three of these players have had a career WAR above 5. 23 never really made it (more than 100 AB's).

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg

[cmathewson]

The old "mystery team" tactic. Been used many a time by this guy. He can even say the Twins talked to him, which I'm sure they did, in December.

 

One thing I don't get is the insistence on a long-term deal. This guy is in his decline years. His value will only go down over the life of a long-term deal. Thinking you need a long-term deal to justify a draft pick is an example of the sunk cost fallacy. Insisting on a long-term deal is throwing good money after bad.

 

If the Twins were in on him (which I highly doubt), the kind of deal I would be interested in is a one-year deal with an option, where you highly discount the contract price to compensate for the loss of a draft pick. Since Boras rarely discounts anything, I also highly doubt Boras would go for that. he'd rather have his client working out on his own and waiting for an injury before he caves at this stage.

 

Between the Twins not wanting to do this and Boras not wanting a reasonable deal for a guy who projects as a 2 WAR player for a couple of years and then drops off the table, I give this 1 100 odds.

[nicksaviking]

If you signed him to a 1-2 year deal, you would likely get another 2nd round pick (or 50% chance at a 1st round pick) back at the end of that contract.

 

Drew won't be getting a QO in two years (and he's looking for three), teams don't want to give up a pick for him now coming off of his least crappy season in three years. He's awful against lefties and he was awful away from Fenway last year.

 

Also the CBA expires after the 2016 season I believe, it almost surely will be reworked as the current QO system isn't working. Who knows what it will look like then.

[jokin]

The old "mystery team" tactic. Been used many a time by this guy. He can even say the Twins talked to him, which I'm sure they did, in December.

 

One thing I don't get is the insistence on a long-term deal. This guy is in his decline years. His value will only go down over the life of a long-term deal. Thinking you need a long-term deal to justify a draft pick is an example of the sunk cost fallacy. Insisting on a long-term deal is throwing good money after bad.

 

If the Twins were in on him (which I highly doubt), the kind of deal I would be interested in is a one-year deal with an option, where you highly discount the contract price to compensate for the loss of a draft pick. Since Boras rarely discounts anything, I also highly doubt Boras would go for that. he'd rather have his client working out on his own and waiting for an injury before he caves at this stage.

 

Between the Twins not wanting to do this and Boras not wanting a reasonable deal for a guy who projects as a 2 WAR player for a couple of years and then drops off the table, I give this 1 100 odds.

 

I would agree that unfortunately, there's no way the Twins are in the mix, but I would take issue on the alleged lack of mystery teams- notwithstanding the Boras factor. And a guy coming off of his first healthy year since 2010 (4.7 fWAR) and putting up a fWAR of 3.4 in 2013 seems to be underestimated in his projection values going forward in the immediate future. Drew is likely not going to experience the typical "shortstop drop-off" due to loss of athleticism- to wit, JJ Hardy came off of 2 years of suffering from injuries and since then has put up WARs of : 4.3/2.6/3.4 over the last 3 years, and he's a very similar style defensive player to Drew, ie, a style that relies more on positioning and consistency than pure athleticism.

 

It's relatively easy to surmise that, given Drew's willingness to play anywhere, that a free-spending team like the Blue Jays, who have 2 protected picks, could get a huge upgrade with Drew at 2B, and would have great insurance for oft-injured Jose Reyes. The LA Dodgers have no limits on spending, and Drew would only have to beat out the likes of Chone Figgins or Brendan Harris for a spot? And again, provide good insurance should Hanley Ramirez go down once again.